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Good News on Tariffs? Taiwan Stocks Surge Above Quarterly Moving Average
Yahoo Finance | Local Language | News | Nov. 27, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers
Taiwan stocks surged significantly on November 25, 2025, closing up 407 points at 26,912 and breaking above the quarterly moving average. This rally was driven by optimism over a potential U.S. rate cut and anticipation of a positive Taiwan-U.S. tariff announcement expected on November 27. The New Taiwan dollar appreciated slightly to NT$31.44, ending a 10-day depreciation streak amid high foreign exchange turnover of US$2.799 billion. Exporters sold foreign currency aggressively at month-end, while hot money flowed in both directions, adding to market activity.
However, volatility remained elevated, especially in the memory sector. A major default settlement was reported on DRAM maker Nanya Technology, totaling NT$26.5 million across seven brokerages, marking the third massive single-stock default this year in the listed market and the 14th overall including OTC markets. The default followed a limit-down close on November 21 and was likely amplified by risk from day traders. Similar default settlements have occurred frequently this year, including a notable NT$12.5 million default on PCB stock Fu Chiao and an NT$34.8 million default on Sesame Street English’s parent company Xinhua.
Market analysts observed that despite the upward surge, short-term moving averages show a downward bias, suggesting the recent rally may be a technical rebound amid continued volatility. Margin loan balances rose sharply by nearly NT$5 billion, raising concerns over risky retail investor positioning. Still, there is room for Taiwan stocks to push higher by year-end, with a forecast index range between 27,500 and 28,000, potentially reaching 30,000 if tariff news is favorable. Institutional investors view U.S. tech stock stabilization and continued capital expenditure growth by major cloud service providers as positive for Taiwan’s semiconductor sector, especially with AI-driven demand.
Foreign investors reversed two days of net selling by covering NT$6.3 billion, although their net short futures positions remain high. Investment trusts continued to sell while proprietary traders increased net buying. State-owned bank branches also returned to net buying. Despite the rebound, analysts caution that the short-term technical structure points to possible consolidation and volatility before any sustained gains.
Additional market highlights include GlobalWafers’ plan to double capacity next year amid strong U.S. demand, varied fortunes among tech giants in the AI race, and notable corporate news such as Poli-KY’s record third-quarter revenue and cash dividend announcement. The market remains sensitive to U.S. macro data, particularly the core PCE inflation figures, which will influence future Fed policy and market direction.