Crisis Management for a Conflict with North Korea

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景氣不可只看台積電、漲幅集中特定類股不會變!資深投資人的年末提醒

Economic outlook should not rely solely on TSMC; gains concentrated in specific sectors will persist! Year-end reminder from a veteran investor

Yahoo News Taiwan | Local Language | News | Nov. 19, 2025 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

The market is experiencing significant volatility amid concerns about an AI bubble and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. AI-related and leading stocks have seen excessive price increases, prompting expectations of substantial profit-taking soon. Despite these fluctuations, overall market trends remain unchanged, with active fund managers adjusting allocations across sectors. Investors are advised to maintain over 50% stock holdings while managing risk through diversified defensive allocations such as bonds, cash, and precious metals. It is emphasized that reliance on TSMC or AI alone for economic outlooks is misguided, as broader sectors face wage pressures, declining consumption, and a challenging environment for most workers.

Taiwan’s stock market has been volatile but still delivered positive returns recently, with actively managed Taiwan stock ETFs outperforming passive ETFs by generating average monthly returns over 5%. Experts highlight that AI’s ongoing industrial evolution and the Federal Reserve’s liquidity measures sustain a bullish outlook. Focus is advised on larger-cap companies within Taiwan’s top 150 listed entities, benefiting from AI-driven profit growth and export momentum. The Taiwan stock market’s price-to-earnings ratio is anticipated to rise toward 25 times, indicating potential further gains primarily accessible through actively managed ETFs targeting high-growth sectors.

Recent market activity saw Taiwan stocks react sharply to U.S. stock declines and internal futures settlement pressures, causing short-term pullbacks considered normal within a high-level consolidation phase. Notable stock performances include standouts in renewable energy and technology sectors, despite setbacks such as Senwei Energy’s wind power project challenges. Taiwan’s memory chip prices have surged sharply, influencing related stock dynamics. Additionally, TSMC’s recent leadership changes and ongoing strategic shifts have drawn attention in the semiconductor industry.

Infrastructure investment is ongoing with Chuan Hu launching a Phase II factory, expected to boost production capacity and efficiency by mid-2027, complementing its expanding U.S. operations. This expansion aims to capitalize on increasing AI server demands and cloud computing markets. The New Taiwan dollar showed volatility amid foreign investor selling and lack of momentum in stocks. The central bank and U.S. Treasury recently issued a joint statement to clarify exchange rate policies and increase transparency on foreign exchange interventions amid currency pressures regionally.

The Federal Reserve’s less dovish stance and mixed U.S. market signals have led to intensified risk aversion by investors ahead of major earnings reports from key tech companies like NVIDIA. Taiwan stocks and futures opened sharply lower on November 18 amid this sentiment. Despite the volatility, the market’s underlying bullishness persists due to AI-driven investment themes and sustained capital inflows into ETFs, particularly those managed actively to capture sector-specific momentum.

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