Crisis Management for a Conflict with North Korea

要求台灣增軍費，只為趁機搬走台積電？嚴震生：川普會用不同條件買時間

Yahoo Finance | Local Language | News | Nov. 10, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Since taking office, former U.S. President Trump has persistently pressured Taiwan to increase military spending and expand TSMC’s advanced semiconductor production within the United States, raising concerns about the potential hollowing out of Taiwan’s critical semiconductor industry. Yan Zhensheng, a researcher at National Chengchi University, argued that Trump’s demands are rolling and likely to continue evolving, with the possibility that the U.S. could leverage any non-intervention in the Taiwan Strait to relocate and seize TSMC’s supply chains. Yan also highlighted the difficulty of replicating Taiwan's semiconductor expertise in the U.S., compounded by societal racial discrimination issues that deter Asian talent from relocating.

Yan noted that despite Trump’s increasing demands, Taiwan is unlikely to ever satisfy his conditions. He compared it to an unending courtship where new conditions keep emerging despite compliance. He also pointed out how Trump's family and associates have profited during this process. Reflecting on the scheduled Trump-Xi meeting in late October 2025, Yan described their interactions as largely inconsequential while still enabling financial gains for Trump’s circle.

The theory that the U.S. is abandoning Taiwan resurfaced amid these dynamics; however, Yan challenged this view by citing Taiwan’s shifting trade composition—bilateral trade with the U.S. dropping from over 50% in the 1980s to less than 15%, with increasing trade with China. He argued that abandoning Taiwan to reduce the U.S. trade deficit is illogical. Yan further stated that U.S. intervention in the Taiwan Strait would likely lead to a stalemate, unable to guarantee Taiwan’s security. Additionally, he mentioned that some U.S. factions might treat Taiwan as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China, with Trump’s rhetoric diminishing Taiwan’s favorability among the American public.

In parallel, U.S. markets have been turbulent. The longest federal government shutdown in history, persisting into November 2025, has delayed key economic data releases and heightened recession fears. U.S. stocks experienced significant declines driven by the risk of a government shutdown and a surge in layoffs, with technology stocks, including TSMC ADR, notably impacted. Asian markets mirrored this downturn, with major indexes in Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and China falling sharply. Taiwan’s stock market also declined, with prominent semiconductor and electronics companies closing lower, although petrochemical and traditional sectors showed gains.

Economic conditions remain challenging for Taiwan’s major manufacturing groups such as Formosa Plastics Group, which reported losses in most subsidiaries for the first three quarters of 2025 due to weak demand in China, overcapacity, and trade uncertainties, though signs of recovery emerged in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s government faced domestic backlash for proposed reforms to the National Health Insurance premium system, leading to a suspension of the plan.

On the international investment front, former President Yen Chia-kan’s 120th birthday prompted reflections on Taiwan’s economic foundation, highlighting monetary reforms critical to its prosperity. Foreign investment sentiments towards China appear improving, with major players viewing Chinese companies as attractive after a period of regulatory crackdowns and geopolitical uncertainty.

Lastly, the global trend of Americans seeking residencia abroad to mitigate inflationary pressures and improve quality of life is intensifying, reflecting broader economic uncertainty in the U.S. The ongoing U.S.-China competition has accelerated China’s efforts at de-dollarization, with the renminbi surpassing the dollar in certain trade segments for the first time in 2023, signaling a shift that could pose strategic challenges to the U.S. economy in the near future.