If you are serious about protecting your people, assets,
and interests in Korea, Japan, or the region, this is the report.
Erudite Risk’s North Korea Monitor is the most relevant and effective crisis management
planning tool available for dealing with the threat of North Korea-related conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
The North Korea Monitor report is normally 12-14 pages in length, including front cover page and back page.
"A conflict in North Korea would be probably the worst kind of fighting in most people's lifetimes...This regime is a threat to the region, to Japan and South Korea and in the event of war they would bring danger to China and to Russia as well. But the bottom line is it would be a catastrophic war if this turns into a combat if we're not able to resolve this situation through diplomatic means.”
-- US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, May 28, 2017
"It would be horrific, and it would be a loss of life unlike any we have experienced in our lifetimes, and I mean anyone who's been alive since World War II has never seen the loss of life that could occur if there's a conflict on the Korean Peninsula...But as I've told my counterparts, both friend and foe, it is not unimaginable to have military options to respond to North Korean nuclear capability. What's unimaginable to me is allowing a capability that would allow a nuclear weapon to land in Denver, Colorado. That's unimaginable to me. So my job will be to develop military options to make sure that doesn't happen."
-- US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joe Dunford, July 22, 2017
“A war on the Korean Peninsula would be terrible. However, a nuclear weapon detonating in Los Angeles would be terrible. The fact of the matter is we are at a point in time where choices are going to have to be made one way or the other.”
-- US Army Chief of Staff, General Mark Milley, July 27, 2017
The North Korea Monitor is a uniquely valuable resource.
Erudite Risk has 15 years of experience in helping multinational companies from around the world prepare for a potential conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Over that time, we have built up our own proprietary framework for analyzing North Korea's words and deeds and the responses of other parties in the theater of action.The North Korea Monitor keeps track of essential triggers and indicators occurring in and around Korea.
We then apply those triggers to time- and speed-based crisis management scenarios so that you have guidance in implementing and executing your entity’s crisis management plan.
Because perfectly predicting a conflict with North Korea is not possible, we have designed a crisis management framework that doesn’t require perfect prediction. Our framework and methodology are independent of what form a conflict with North Korea might take and do not depend on any variables we cannot accurately predict. They are designed to function based only on variables we can monitor, analyze, prepare for, control, or predict.
What is in the report?
The report includes the following sections:
1. 4 Point Executive Summary
- What has changed?
- What is the sentiment on the ground?
- Why should we care?
- What action should we take, if any?
2. Current Environment & Situational Overview
Overview of the current environment on the Korean Peninsula, in Japan, China, Russia, and the whole area. This is a bird’s eye view of the entire current crisis environment broken out on a day-by-day basis.
3. Triggers and Indicators
We analyze triggers and indicators seen and unseen.
- New Triggers Seen
We review any new triggers that were witnessed over the week. We cover relative significance and how they relate to the scenario analysis and each other.
- Key Trigger Status/Trigger and Indicator Outlook
We review key triggers that could be seen in the upcoming time period and that would send us to a new scenario level. An awareness of what triggers should be watched for is crucial to make early, effective decisions. This section includes Operational Decision Making Indicators to watch for, which are indicators that signal key decisions must be made, such as restricting travel, closing operations, or evacuating the country.
4. On-the-ground Sentiment Analysis
By learning from what other entities are doing and saying, we can borrow their analysis without having a direct window into their thinking. Our Sentiment Analysis gives us hints as to the possible decisions that will be made by authorities on the Korean Peninsula today.
This section has two subsections:
- Top Issues in Korean Media
Korea’s top stories of the week are analyzed for context in understanding the key issues related to a North Korea-related crisis. Other top domestic political and economic issues form a baseline against which we can measure how important, critical, and immediate the issues related to a North Korean crisis are in South Korea.
- Korean Social Media
Korean social media posts are analyzed. We look at three different issues: the key crisis-related issue, and two other important issues. The key issue is measured for positive/negative sentiment and then set in relief against two baseline issues of the week. With this analysis, we are able to determine the relative criticality and severity of the current crisis issue, be it a provocation, military deployments, or a key decision by authorities.
5. Scenario Analysis
Analysis of where on the Erudite Risk scenario framework the current situation stands. Correct placement on the timeline of scenarios, as determined by monitoring and analysis of triggers and indicators, allows us to know which options are still available and which are not. A correct understanding of where we stand in relation to potential risks coming down the pipe allows us to know what actions and preparations must be taken now.
6. Crisis Management
This section presents what responses are preferred, given the current situation and witnessed triggers, following a standard crisis management playbook for the Korean Peninsula. While each organization’s response should be different and tailored to its own situation, we provide generalized best-practices for entities on the Peninsula.
The North Korea Monitor is the intelligence input into your own crisis management planning decision-making you need to make the tough decisions that save lives, protect assets, and allow you to bounce back afterward.
Who is the report for?
Entities with operations and personnel on the Korean Peninsula or in Japan
Entities with investments in Korea or Japan
Entities with supply chains running through Korea or Japan: suppliers and other partners
Entities considering partnering, acquisitions, or investments in Korea or Japan
Anyone with a stake in Northeast Asia
Request a sample report to review.
Where is the North Korea Monitor report written?
The Erudite Risk North Korea Monitor is written each week 100% on the ground in South Korea.
Where do you get your information?
We get our information from a variety of sources we monitor each week, both in the Korean language and in English. We monitor public media, and local direct sources on the ground.
Who writes the reports?
Report creation is led by Erudite Risk President, Rodney J. Johnson, and Erudite Risk Director of Business Intelligence, Kyle Johnson.
Rodney J. Johnson is a former intelligence analyst for the US military, focused exclusively on North Korea. In addition, he has led or managed over 2000 security and risk management-related cases in Korea. He has created crisis management plans for entities operating on the Peninsula from virtually every industry. He is the creator of the Erudite Risk Crisis Framework and the designer of the North Korea Monitor.
Kyle Johnson is a former intelligence analyst for the US military, who also focused on North Korea. He is a Korean linguist with years of experience analyzing North Korean military operations and activities.
Subscriptions to the North Korea Monitor
Subscriptions are on a monthly basis.
Subscriptions are by entity, so a single subscription may be shared among personnel in the same organization.
US$500/Month (4 Weekly Reports)
The North Korea Monitor is delivered each week by email as a PDF. It is published each Tuesday, Korea time.
If critical triggers are seen, timely updates are mailed out as soon as possible after triggers are verified to be true and actual.
To subscribe to the North Korea Monitor via PayPal (auto-recurring monthly), click here or send us an email to pay by telegraphic transfer. There is no long-term commitment. You may cancel renewal at any time.
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Plan for and prepare for a potential conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
— North Korea Monitor
Erudite's weekly report on monitoring and interpreting North Korea crisis-related triggers.
Who reads the North Korea Monitor?
Human Rights Watch
Gyeonggi-Suwon International School
Chadwick International School
Int’l School of Koje
Tiffany & Co.
Briggs & Stratton
Stanley/Black & Decker
Lee & Ko
Royal Bank of Canada
Korea International School