Try the Daily Briefing
Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.
Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
The Impact of the US National Security Strategy’s Blind Spot on North Korea
38 North | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 23, 2026 | North Korea
The latest US National Security Strategy (NSS) marks a significant shift in Washington’s approach to the Korean Peninsula by excluding North Korean denuclearization as a central concern and redirecting deterrence responsibilities primarily onto allies, especially South Korea. This shift reflects a reprioritization in US strategy that reduces direct engagement and increases South Korea’s burden in managing North Korea, resulting in a more volatile and unpredictable security environment.
North Korea views this strategic retrenchment as an opportunity to strengthen its position by adopting a more confrontational stance toward South Korea, potentially codifying a hostile inter-Korean doctrine at its upcoming Ninth Party Congress. Its military provocations serve a dual purpose: challenging South Korea’s control over contested maritime and air defense zones in a calculated manner to avoid large-scale escalation, and provoking political divisions within South Korea related to responses and the credibility of US extended deterrence.
South Korea is responding to these provocations by significantly increasing its defense budget and investing in advanced military capabilities, signaling a shift toward greater self-reliance and reduced dependence on the US nuclear umbrella. Discussions on indigenous nuclear options and strategic assets have entered mainstream political debate, reflecting growing doubts about the reliability of US deterrence.
The absence of North Korea from the US NSS increases the risk of an accelerated arms race on the Peninsula, compounded by US global strategic actions that raise perceptions of unpredictability and willingness to use force. This dynamic incentivizes both Pyongyang and Seoul to engage in competitive military buildup and riskier postures, especially around sensitive zones like the Northern Limit Line and Korea Air Defense Identification Zone, with a heightened chance of destabilizing escalation.
Underlying this situation are flawed assumptions within US policy that ambiguity and burden-shifting will maintain stability. Without clear communication, senior-level coordination, and explicit crisis management policies—including well-defined red lines—burden-shifting encourages risk-taking by all parties. The evolving arms competition and alliance asymmetries on the Peninsula increase the likelihood of costly miscalculations and military adventurism unless strategic signaling and allied coordination improve significantly.
(2nd LD) Homes, offices of 3 civilian suspects raided over alleged drone flights to N. Korea
Yonhap | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | North Korea
A joint team of police and military investigators in South Korea raided the homes and offices of three civilian suspects suspected of flying drones into North Korea, in violation of the Aviation Safety Act. The searches began at 8 a.m. on January 21, 2026, as part of an ongoing investigation into drone incursions reported by North Korea in September 2025 and January 4, 2026. South Korea's military denies involvement, stating it does not operate the drone models in question.
One suspect, a graduate student surnamed Oh in his 30s, publicly admitted to flying the drones in a media interview last Friday. He and another suspect, both alumni of the same Seoul university, previously worked at the presidential office under former President Yoon Suk Yeol and co-founded a drone manufacturing startup in 2024 with university support. Oh also operated two online news outlets focused on North Korea, which were shut down amid accusations that they served as fronts for military intelligence operations.
During the raid, investigators searched the university-based startup but did not search the news outlets' offices. The investigation remains ongoing, with authorities keeping all possibilities open. Meanwhile, North Korea claims to have forced one of the drones to fall using electronic means near its border city of Kaesong in late September 2025, escalating tensions between the two countries.
SKT 'A.X K1', 옴니모달로 진화…“소버린 AI 마중물 될 것”
SKT A.X K1 evolves into omnimodal… will become a catalyst for sovereign AI
ET News | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption
SK Telecom's ultra-large AI model, A.Dot X (A.X) K1, is advancing into an omnimodal model as part of the second phase of its independent AI foundation model project. This upgrade will enable the model to understand and process speech in real time alongside text and images, aiming to establish leadership in sovereign AI. The A.X K1, already a model with approximately 500 billion parameters, will sequentially incorporate multimodal functions, including voice and image recognition.
Professor Kim Geon-hee of Seoul National University highlighted the transition from multimodal models, which integrate text, photos, and videos, to omnimodal models that also include speech understanding. He emphasized the technical difficulty of implementing real-time voice conversations due to their bidirectional and simultaneous nature, requiring the model to handle interruptions, brief feedback, and emotional nuances. Past approaches using separate speech-to-text and text-to-speech systems faced delays and lost key information, such as breathing and emotional signals.
To address these challenges, recent developments focus on integrated language models capable of processing voice information directly. The core strategy involves fine-tuning a powerful pretrained language model using diverse data, including voice, to achieve comprehensive omnimodal capabilities. SK Telecom aims to deploy these advancements across various services like A.Dot, T map, and B tv, and expects the technology to play a central role in enhancing AI applications in gaming and mobility through partners Krafton and 42dot.
Professor Kim stressed that the success of sovereign AI depends heavily on effective use of national core data sovereignty, which includes largely unstructured data in multiple formats. An omnimodal model allows for direct training and operation of such data without relying on external platforms, thus reinforcing both digital sovereignty and sovereignty over physical infrastructure.
Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.
Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.
info@eruditerisk.com
The Daily Briefing is delivered Monday through Thursday via email.
Each day's reports include a combination of:
Takes
Takes are our deep dives into a topic of enduring interest or concern. Takes include copious references to all the media resources we gathered to build them.
Developments
Developments are key issues and incidents being heavily reported on in country. These are the centers of local thought gravity around which everything else revolves.
Risk Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important risk issues reported on in media, arranged by risk category. Learn about risk trends and issues while they are developing--before they blow up.
Ops Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important operational issues reported on in media, arranged by operations category. See what's changing in your market, and what's not.
Government Releases
Government press and data releases on key economic data, regulation, law, intiatives, incidents. Straight from the government's press to your eyes in less than a day.
Embassy and Business Association Releases
Statements and news releases from foreign embassies and business/industry associations, including chambers of commerce.
The Daily Briefing can run 50-100 pages each day!
Luckily, Erudite Risk tailors every report specifically to you.
Content Filtering
We try hard to ensure that every piece of information included in each day's reports will be of interest to our readers.
To fulfill our goal of comprehensively monitoring the intelligence landscape and also keeping reports readable, we build big reports--then deliver only the information that applies to you.
Each Daily Briefing is a bespoke report matched to your concerns. Tell us what you want in it, or we can match it to your professional needs. It's that easy.