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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
(News Focus) Lee's assessment on N. Korea's nuclear capabilities raises urgency of resuming diplomacy
Yonhap | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | North Korea
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung revealed that North Korea is producing enough nuclear material annually to build 10 to 20 new nuclear weapons, emphasizing the critical need to resume diplomatic talks with Pyongyang to curb its nuclear weapons program. This disclosure, considered rare and based on classified intelligence shared by South Korean and U.S. agencies, highlights North Korea's ongoing expansion of its nuclear arsenal.
North Korea is operating highly enriched uranium production facilities in Yongbyon and Kangson, along with plutonium production at Yongbyon. These facilities can generate dozens of kilograms of nuclear material a year, sufficient for multiple weapons. Estimates from the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses indicate North Korea possessed between 115 and 131 uranium-based weapons and 15 to 19 plutonium-based weapons as of 2025, potentially rising to 216 uranium-based and 27 plutonium-based weapons by 2030, and further increasing through 2040.
President Lee stated that while complete denuclearization is the ideal outcome, the reality suggests North Korea is unlikely to abandon its nuclear program voluntarily. He proposed a practical approach starting with halting North Korea’s nuclear activities, then pursuing gradual reductions, and ultimately aiming for full denuclearization. Lee’s use of the term "disarmament" signals a renewed push to bring North Korea back to negotiations, despite Pyongyang’s firm stance that its nuclear arsenal is non-negotiable and essential for national security.
Lee centers foreign policy on strategic autonomy in shaky world
Korea Herald | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
President Lee Jae Myung outlined a foreign policy focused on "strategic autonomy" and "pragmatic diplomacy centered on the national interest" amid a volatile global environment. He stressed the importance of self-reliant national defense as essential to navigating growing economic slowdowns that could intensify interstate rivalries and military conflicts. South Korea, already the world's fifth-largest military power, must continue to strengthen its defense industry to avoid risks of entrapment or abandonment in international alliances.
Regarding relations with China, Lee described his recent state visit as a turning point, emphasizing room for cooperation beyond trade, including diplomatic and security coordination and cultural exchanges. On North Korea, Lee advocated a pragmatic, phased approach to denuclearization focused on peaceful coexistence and deterrence. He acknowledged the current difficulties in achieving unification and called for prioritizing avoidance of war, urging dialogue and mutual respect while recognizing the continued reality of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.
Domestically, Lee dismissed calls for a direct meeting with opposition leader Rep. Song Eon-seog, urging initial dialogue to occur party-to-party before any presidential involvement. This stance comes amid controversy over dual special prosecutor investigations into Democratic Party lawmakers and the opposition’s ongoing hunger strike demanding these probes. Lee also addressed the contentious nomination of Lee Hye-hoon to head the Ministry of Planning and Budget, noting he has not made a final decision and advocated proceeding with a confirmation hearing despite opposition boycott, emphasizing the nominee deserves a chance to respond to allegations.
Regulator slaps $183.7M fine on 4 major banks over alleged loan ratio collusion
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Regulatory Enforcement Actions
South Korea's Fair Trade Commission (FTC) has fined four major commercial banks—Shinhan Bank, Woori Bank, Hana Bank, and KB Kookmin Bank—a total of 272 billion won ($183.7 million) for allegedly colluding on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios in real estate lending. The banks exchanged internal documents related to LTV ratios and coordinated lending limits from March 2022 to March 2024, restricting competition in the mortgage loan market.
The FTC estimated that the collusion helped the banks generate approximately 6.8 trillion won in interest earnings by reducing uncertainty about competitors’ strategies and avoiding competition on LTV ratios. These four banks collectively hold about 60 percent of South Korea’s real estate mortgage loan market, limiting consumer choice and affecting lending conditions.
The collusion particularly harmed small and midsize enterprises and small business owners, who often have lower credit ratings and rely heavily on secured loans. The case is notable as the first enforcement under a revised fair trade law effective December 30, 2021, which prohibits anticompetitive collusion involving the exchange of sensitive business information.
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