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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Korea becomes 1st nation to enact comprehensive law on safe AI usage
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Regulation
Korea has become the first country to enact a comprehensive law regulating the safe use of AI, known as the AI Basic Act, which took effect on January 22, 2026. The law was passed by the National Assembly on December 26, 2024, with overwhelming support. It establishes a regulatory framework aimed at combating misinformation and other harmful impacts of AI technologies.
The AI Basic Act introduces the concept of "high-risk AI," referring to AI models that significantly affect users' lives, such as those used in employment, loan reviews, and medical advice. Companies using high-risk AI must notify users and ensure safety. AI-generated content must carry watermarks to indicate its origin, a measure designed to prevent misuse such as deepfake content.
The law requires global AI service providers meeting specific financial or user thresholds to appoint a local representative in Korea. OpenAI and Google currently meet these criteria. Violations can result in fines up to 30 million won, though a one-year grace period has been established for compliance adjustments. The government will also promote the AI industry, with the science minister mandated to release a policy blueprint every three years.
국정자원 화재 교훈 잊었나...민관 '오프라인 백업' 포기
Did They Forget the Lessons from the National Resources Fire... Public and Private Sectors Abandon 'Offline Backup'
ET News | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Critical Infrastructure Failure
The National Information Resources Service (NIRS) has discontinued the use of offline backups—physical isolation of data—in the Daegu Center's private-partnership cloud (PPP) zone. This decision removes the last line of defense against ransomware and large-scale network outages, despite a recent fire at NIRS's Daejeon headquarters that caused significant operational paralysis. Instead of physical, offline data dispersion using fireproof safes at the Gongju backup center, the three tenant cloud service providers (Samsung SDS, KT Cloud, and NHN Cloud) shifted to an online backup method via the "G-Cloud dispersion network" connecting the Daegu and Gongju centers.
Previously, NIRS stored data on physical media like tapes, kept disconnected from any network to protect against simultaneous compromise of original and backup data by disasters or cyberattacks. The new online backup approach, with continuous network connectivity, raises concerns about vulnerability to combined physical and cyber threats. This practice conflicts with the Electronic Government Act and National Information Security Basic Guidelines, which require remote data dispersion including physical isolation for systems rated "high" in importance. While remote dispersion is technically maintained via online transmission, abandoning the air gap undermines the intended security standards.
Additionally, the globally accepted "3-2-1 rule" for data protection—three copies on two media types with one offline backup—has been disregarded. Cost and administrative convenience are cited as primary reasons for abandoning offline dispersion; cloud service providers resisted the manual handling of physical tapes required by regulations, and government authorities deferred to CSPs' autonomy within the PPP zone contracts. NIRS officials noted they lack authority to impose offline backup mandates in privately operated PPP zones.
Security experts criticize this approach, noting major global cloud providers like Amazon AWS maintain isolated backup services despite additional costs. They emphasize that sacrificing critical security measures for convenience is unacceptable for nationally important data and call for urgent development of alternative protections such as logical air gaps.
Korea’s financial regulators mull allowing single-stock leveraged ETFs to ease won pressure
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Regulation
Korea’s financial regulators are considering permitting leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to individual stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to address capital outflows and reduce pressure on the won. This review is focused exclusively on single-stock leveraged ETFs and does not extend to increasing leverage limits on index-based ETFs beyond the current 2x restriction. Currently, regulations prevent single-stock leveraged ETFs by capping the weight of any single stock at 30 percent, meaning domestic launch of such products would be a first if approved.
The move follows concerns raised after 2x leveraged ETFs linked to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix were listed in Hong Kong last year, resulting in significant domestic capital outflows as Korean investors accessed these products overseas. Korean retail holdings of U.S. stocks have surged to $171.9 billion by January 2026, nearly quadrupling since 2022, with substantial investments in leveraged ETFs unavailable in Korea, including 3x leveraged Nasdaq-100 products and 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs like those tracking Tesla.
Critics warn that leveraged ETFs carry high risks due to negative compounding effects, where losses can exceed those of the underlying assets during volatility, posing a danger especially to retail investors who form a significant share of the Korean market. Experts caution that loosening these rules may increase speculation, short-term trading, and market volatility, potentially worsening the "Korea discount," or undervaluation of Korean stocks compared to global peers.
Some economists argue that regulatory intervention aimed at exchange-rate stability through such ETF policy changes provides only short-term relief. They suggest focusing on managing excessive daily volatility and promoting long-term investment incentives rather than facilitating leveraged ETF usage, which could amplify instability in the market.
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