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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Doomed from the start? Why Seoul dropped its foreign caregiver initiative.
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedInitiative
Seoul has discontinued its foreign caregiver pilot program launched in August 2024 due to ongoing controversies surrounding wages, working conditions, and legal protections for the recruited Filipino caregivers. The initiative aimed to address a shortage of child care workers caused by Korea’s low birthrate and to reduce child care costs while supporting women’s workforce participation. However, the program faced immediate challenges, including absenteeism by some caregivers, high service fees for families, and labor rights concerns amid ambiguous job definitions and visa constraints.
Caregivers in the program earned approximately half the average Korean monthly wage, with significant deductions leaving take-home pay low despite high costs charged to households. The program’s structure involved multiple stakeholders, including government bodies and private platform companies, which weakened worker protections, fostered rigid management controls, and contributed to dissatisfaction among caregivers. The E-9 visa system restricted workers’ employer mobility and residency security, exacerbating vulnerabilities inherent in the pilot.
The initiative revealed deeper systemic issues in Korea’s approach to migrant labor and care work, including fragmented oversight across ministries and undervaluation of caregiving jobs. Experts highlighted that improving domestic working conditions might better address caregiver shortages. Despite ongoing demand for child care, program critics argue that without coordinated reforms to labor policies and residency rights, integrating foreign caregivers effectively remains unlikely.
카카오뱅크, 태국 인뱅 설립위해 합작법인 계약 체결
Kakao Bank signs joint venture agreement to establish inbound bank in Thailand
ZD Net Korea | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedBizdev-Partnering
Kakao Bank has signed a joint venture agreement with Thai financial holding company SCBX to establish a virtual bank in Thailand. The virtual bank will operate solely through a digital platform without physical branches. Kakao Bank will initially acquire a 10% stake in the joint venture, with plans to increase its holding to 24.5%, becoming the second-largest shareholder. Kakao Bank will oversee front-end development, including user interface, user experience planning, and mobile app development.
China’s WeBank subsidiary, WeBank Technology Service, will also participate as a technology partner to enhance synergies. Kakao Bank intends to use its entry into the Thai market as a launchpad for further expansion into Southeast Asia and other regions.
This venture marks Kakao Bank’s return to the Thai market for the first time in 25 years since the Asian financial crisis. Previously, Kakao Bank made an international investment in the Indonesian digital bank Superbank, which has attracted 5 million customers. CEO Yoon Ho-young emphasized the goal of building a successful digital finance model based on Korea’s expertise to pioneer global markets.
Wildfire erupts in Gwangyang, prompting evacuation order
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Natural Disasters
A wildfire broke out on January 21, 2026, in the Mount Baegun area of Gwangyang, South Jeolla, leading fire authorities to escalate their response and issue evacuation orders for nearby residents. The fire was fueled by dry weather and strong gusty winds, with wind speeds averaging 3.6 meters per second at the time of reporting.
Forestry and fire officials deployed 19 helicopters and 31 fire engines to combat the blaze. Despite these efforts, dry conditions and sustained winds continued to challenge firefighting operations. The emergency response level was raised from Level 1 to Level 2 at 4:31 p.m., which applies when a wildfire is expected to impact 50 to 100 hectares and is forecasted to be controlled within 48 hours.
Residents near the affected area were instructed to evacuate to village community centers and other designated safe locations via emergency text alerts. This wildfire represents a serious incident amid ongoing dry weather conditions in the region.
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Each day's reports include a combination of:
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