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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
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Lee centers foreign policy on strategic autonomy in shaky world
Korea Herald | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
President Lee Jae Myung outlined a foreign policy focused on "strategic autonomy" and "pragmatic diplomacy centered on the national interest" amid a volatile global environment. He stressed the importance of self-reliant national defense as essential to navigating growing economic slowdowns that could intensify interstate rivalries and military conflicts. South Korea, already the world's fifth-largest military power, must continue to strengthen its defense industry to avoid risks of entrapment or abandonment in international alliances.
Regarding relations with China, Lee described his recent state visit as a turning point, emphasizing room for cooperation beyond trade, including diplomatic and security coordination and cultural exchanges. On North Korea, Lee advocated a pragmatic, phased approach to denuclearization focused on peaceful coexistence and deterrence. He acknowledged the current difficulties in achieving unification and called for prioritizing avoidance of war, urging dialogue and mutual respect while recognizing the continued reality of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.
Domestically, Lee dismissed calls for a direct meeting with opposition leader Rep. Song Eon-seog, urging initial dialogue to occur party-to-party before any presidential involvement. This stance comes amid controversy over dual special prosecutor investigations into Democratic Party lawmakers and the opposition’s ongoing hunger strike demanding these probes. Lee also addressed the contentious nomination of Lee Hye-hoon to head the Ministry of Planning and Budget, noting he has not made a final decision and advocated proceeding with a confirmation hearing despite opposition boycott, emphasizing the nominee deserves a chance to respond to allegations.
정지훈 파트너 "CES 2026, AI 유틸리티 시대 서막"
Jihun Jung Partner CES 2026, Dawn of the AI Utility Era
ZD Net Korea | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption
At CES 2026, Jihun Jung, founding partner of Asia2G Capital and adjunct professor at DGIST, declared the start of the "AI utility era," marking a shift from AI's flashy performance to practical AI applications that create value. He emphasized that this year’s CES was more focused on B2B rather than consumer markets, noting key exhibition areas such as Hyundai Motor’s presence in the West Hall and humanoid robots in the North Hall, while the traditionally prominent Central Hall saw less attention. Samsung notably opted out of the main exhibition hall and held separate events instead.
Jung identified four major battlegrounds for AI development after 2025: a new computing stack, human-AI interfaces, AI’s expansion into the physical world, and enterprise adoption challenges. He highlighted the growing importance of edge semiconductors amid the transition from inference centered on companies like NVIDIA to broader AI infrastructure. He noted that NVIDIA’s large energy consumption remains problematic compared to Qualcomm and startups like HyperExcel, in which Asia2G has invested.
Regarding future computing devices, Jung pointed to glasses-type devices becoming mainstream around 2029–2030, requiring new operating system and software stacks, with Qualcomm likely providing the standard chips. He critiqued China’s weak OS and software capabilities and predicted Microsoft is at risk due to increasing cloud-based tool adoption, with Google’s ecosystem gaining more prominence among younger users.
Jung observed that AI is extending into physical realms, with autonomous vehicle technology showcased prominently, exemplified by companies such as John Deere in agriculture, Caterpillar in construction, and Brunswick in marine yachts. He noted significant growth in AI and robotics innovation award winners at CES 2025 and 2026. Tesla was described as the "Apple of the physical AI era," with its end-to-end control both a strength and a weakness, while NVIDIA compensates for lacking hardware through partnerships, notably with Hyundai Motor.
The presentation also underscored a strong Hyundai-NVIDIA collaboration, likening it to the Google-Samsung smartphone alliance. Hyundai’s recruitment of former NVIDIA executive Park Min-woo as president overseeing autonomous driving signals deepening ties. Jung downplayed concerns over China’s robotics advances, noting their robots’ limited load capacity compared to Hyundai and Tesla.
Finally, Jung forecasted that AI, semiconductors, robotics, energy, and wearables will converge and drive the metaverse revolution over the next two decades, emphasizing that this multi-technology integration, not any single innovation, will spark transformative change occurring once every 10–20 years.
U.S. expert proposes S. Korea, U.S., others form 'collective economic deterrence' pact against Chinese pressure
Yonhap | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
Victor Cha, a U.S. expert and president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at CSIS, proposed the creation of a "collective economic deterrence" pact involving South Korea, the United States, Japan, and other countries to counter China's economic pressure. This proposal comes amid concerns of possible Chinese retaliation toward South Korea following its nuclear-powered submarine project, which the U.S. has approved. The pact aims to collectively respond to any economic coercion by China, similar to the collective security principle of NATO’s Article 5, thereby deterring Chinese economic aggression rather than initiating a trade war.
Cha described China as an unreliable partner for South Korea, accusing Beijing of failing to curb North Korea's nuclear activities and ignoring UN sanctions. He emphasized that no single country in the region can effectively counter China alone, but collectively the countries possess enough leverage. The pact would treat coercion against one member as coercion against all, triggering automatic retaliation, which could impose real costs on Beijing and make it reconsider its pressure tactics.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has sought balanced relations with both China and the U.S., exemplified by his recent summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, Cha believes this amicable approach is unlikely to withstand the fallout from the submarine deal, as China has historically retaliated against South Korea economically in response to geopolitical disputes. He called for stronger trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, highlighting their substantial trade with China and leverage over key Chinese imports worth over $23 billion.
Cha urged the Trump administration, which holds the G7 presidency in 2027, to lead efforts in forming this economic deterrence pact and to avoid measures like tariffs on allies. He recommended that Trump explicitly oppose China's economic pressure tactics during his upcoming visit to Beijing in April to deter further coercion against allies, particularly South Korea, following the submarine project agreement.
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