Vietnam

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Vietnam Issues New Directives to Drive Economic Diplomacy and Global Integration in 2026

Jan. 12, 2026 | Geopolitics & Defense

Vietnam’s government and Prime Minister have issued comprehensive directives to advance the country’s economic diplomacy and international cooperation in 2026.

**On January 11, 2026, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired an online conference with ambassadors and heads of Vietnamese representative agencies abroad, Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son, cabinet ministers, provincial leaders, trade associations, and business representatives to review economic diplomacy in 2025 and set objectives for 2026.**
Last year, top leaders conducted 75 foreign activities, upgraded relations with 17 countries, and signed 350 cooperation agreements—a 150% increase over 2024. These efforts strengthened international connectivity, boosted resilience against global economic shifts, and helped Vietnam achieve more than 900 billion USD in import–export turnover, securing its place among the world’s top 15 trading nations. Tourism and Vietnamese brand promotion also improved: international arrivals rose 20.4% to nearly 21.2 million, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 17.8%.

**In science and technology diplomacy, Vietnam concluded over 70 cooperation documents across governments, ministries, enterprises, and institutions.**
It established strategic frameworks with leading global research centers, promoted major investment projects with technology corporations, and supported domestic tech firms’ entry into overseas markets. The government formed networks of Vietnamese intellectuals abroad, planned to repatriate 100 leading experts, and built comprehensive databases of specialists and businesspeople.

**Vietnamese representative agencies carried out nearly 500 economic diplomacy activities, facilitated more than 150 trade and investment promotions, and helped provinces and cities sign about 100 international agreements.**
Conference delegates analyzed emerging global trends and their potential impacts on Vietnam’s economy, then proposed priorities: deepen cooperation in trade, investment, labor, tourism, and science and technology with strategic partners; achieve breakthroughs in market integration; support localities and enterprises in global economic integration; and reinforce multilateral diplomacy through active participation in regional and international forums.

**Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh set a goal of double-digit economic growth from 2026 under the motto “unity to create strength, cooperation to gain benefits, dialogue to increase trust.” He called for sincere diplomacy that balances interests and shares risks, and he urged focused breakthroughs in international cooperation on science and technology, innovation, digital and green transformation, sustainable energy, smart cities, and tourism.**
Attracting major technology corporations and overseas Vietnamese scientists, as well as facilitating domestic enterprises’ integration into global value chains, emerged as top priorities.

**Further directives called for revitalizing traditional growth drivers, diversifying markets, products, and supply chains, and seizing opportunities in the Middle East, Africa, and South America.**
The government will fast-track free trade agreements with Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, and the Mercosur bloc and intensify international promotion of Vietnamese products and brands. It will promote cooperation in emerging technologies—cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and semiconductor chips—and build a comprehensive business support ecosystem encompassing banking, logistics, human resources, and legal services, with special attention to small and medium-sized enterprises.

**Ambassadors received specific assignments: the Ambassador to the United States will seek recognition of Vietnam’s market economy status and removal of high-tech export restrictions; the Ambassador to China will advance railway connectivity projects; the Ambassador to Russia will promote cooperation on the Ninh Thuan nuclear power plant; and the Ambassadors to Belgium and ASEAN will target joint efforts against illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.**
The Ministry of Industry and Trade must finalize support programs under the “Go Global” initiative, strengthen ties with the international business community, operate the international financial center effectively, promote duty-free commercial zones, and enhance cross-border economic cooperation.

**Vietnam will maintain active participation in multilateral forums such as the World Economic Forum, host APEC 2027 Leaders Week, and assume leadership roles in key regional and international mechanisms.**
It will expand Halal product exports to Middle Eastern markets and encourage localities to intensify investment promotion and market expansion. All initiatives will proceed with a disciplined, responsible spirit guided by six clear principles—person, task, responsibility, authority, timeframe, and results—to accelerate creativity and secure sustainable effectiveness.

### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**

Domain	Causal Chain	Possible Outcome
Competitiveness	(Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Export-basket diversification (HHI) ↓ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑)	More diversified exports drive a higher share of high-value-added products, strengthening Vietnam's export resilience.
Competitiveness	(Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Venture-capital investment per capita ↑ → Unicorn creation count ↑)	Increased FDI and VC funding accelerate startup scale-up, resulting in more unicorns.
Transportation & Logistics	(Rail open-access & track-access charge regime ↓ → Freight-rail on-time performance ↑ → Door-to-door export lead time (days) ↓ → Logistics-performance index (LPI) score ↑)	Improved rail access reduces export lead times, elevating Vietnam's logistics performance ranking.
Technology & Innovation	(Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↓ → High-tech export volume surprise ↑ → Technology FDI inflow ↑ → Net tech-enabled job creation ↑)	Eased dual-use controls spark higher-tech exports and FDI, creating net tech-enabled jobs.
Technology & Innovation	(STEM talent pipeline capacity ↑ → STEM postgraduate enrolment growth ↑ → Patent-to-product conversion rate ↑ → Global Innovation Index rank trajectory ↑)	An expanded STEM pipeline enhances patent commercialization, boosting Vietnam's Global Innovation Index ranking.
Macroeconomics & Growth	(Global value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → Output gap (% GDP) ↓ → Real GDP growth ↑)	Faster supply-chain reconfiguration narrows the output gap and fuels stronger real GDP growth.
Energy & Natural Resources	(Nuclear-energy policy framework ↑ → Upstream project FID count ↑ → Renewable-generation share of electricity ↑ → Energy trade balance (% GDP) ↓)	Stronger nuclear and renewable investment lowers energy import dependence, improving the trade balance.
Food & Water	(Fisheries-management policy strength ↑ → Fishing stock biomass (B/Bmsy) ↑ → Food trade balance (% GDP) ↑ → Food import dependency ratio ↓)	Enhanced fisheries management rebuilds stocks, increases seafood exports, and reduces food import dependency.
Geopolitics & Defense	(Arms-control & non-proliferation treaty status ↑ → Sanctions breadth index ↓ → Shipping-insurance premium in high-risk zones ↓ → Shipping-insurance cost share of trade value ↓)	Improved non-proliferation status cuts shipping insurance costs, reducing trade transaction expenses.
Technology & Innovation	(R&D tax-incentive generosity score ↑ → R&D tax credit utilisation rate ↑ → Return on R&D investment ↑ → Total-factor productivity growth from tech ↑)	Enhanced R&D tax incentives boost utilisation and returns, accelerating productivity growth from technology.

### BOTTOM LINE

- Vietnam’s push to fast-track FTAs with Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria and Mercosur is likely to widen preferential market access within 1–3 years and reduce export concentration, which should increase shipments of higher‑value goods to new regions and lower vulnerability to demand swings in East Asian and Western markets.

- A sustained diplomatic surge and targeted ambassadorial mandates (U.S. market‑economy recognition; China rail links; Russia nuclear cooperation; anti‑IUU fishing with Belgium/ASEAN) substantially raise the probability of concrete bilateral wins that will translate into regulatory relief, infrastructure projects, and sectoral cooperation agreements over the next 2–5 years.

- If Vietnam secures eased high‑tech export restrictions and U.S. recognition of market‑economy status, technology exports and FDI into semiconductor‑adjacent and advanced manufacturing sectors are likely to rise, creating higher‑skill jobs and accelerating domestic supplier development.

- The “Go Global” push, combined with networks for repatriating 100 leading scientists, will increase STEM capacity and patent commercialization rates over the medium term, improving Vietnam’s Global Innovation Index trajectory and supporting higher domestic value‑added in exports.

- Intensified diplomacy and active promotion at multilateral forums (including APEC 2027 Leaders Week) should enhance Vietnam’s geopolitical standing and reduce trade frictions, which will lower transaction costs for exporters and make the country a more attractive hub for regional production relocation.

- Advancing China‑linked rail connectivity and reforms to rail access/charging could shorten door‑to‑door lead times and improve logistics performance within 1–4 years, but realizing those benefits requires concurrent investment in terminals, customs digitization, and public–private coordination.

- Accelerating nuclear cooperation with Russia and clarifying nuclear policy will raise the likelihood of final investment decisions in large power projects and catalyze complementary renewable investments, which over the medium term should improve energy security and reduce fuel import bills if projects stay on schedule and financing is secured.

- Strengthening anti‑IUU fishing cooperation with regional and EU partners will help rebuild fish stocks and support seafood export growth, but this will require robust enforcement, supply‑chain traceability systems, and support for fishing communities to transition to sustainable practices.

- Expansion of trade promotion, duty‑free zones, and a comprehensive SME support ecosystem (banking, logistics, HR, legal) will increase SME participation in export value chains only if matched by simplified procedures, targeted financing windows, and capacity‑building programs that are timely and locally accessible.

- Policy levers such as enhanced R&D tax incentives and “Go Global” support can lift R&D spending and venture activity, but firms will need clearer guidance on eligibility and faster tax‑credit processing to convert these incentives into measurable increases in innovation investment.

- The most likely constraints to realizing these outcomes are domestic capacity limits (regulatory implementation, project management, skilled labor), geopolitical balancing risks, and potential delays in FDI or FTA ratification; monitoring metrics should include FDI inflows by sector, FTA implementation timelines, rail throughput and lead times, and STEM postgraduate enrollment.

- Practical steps for stakeholders: exporters should map new preferential tariff lines and pursue market diversification now; provincial authorities should prioritize investment facilitation and investor aftercare for infrastructure projects; tech firms should prepare compliance and IP strategies to benefit from relaxed dual‑use rules; and international investors should incorporate Vietnam’s accelerating diplomacy and reform agenda into 2–5 year market‑entry plans.

Ha Long Canfoco Food Safety Scandal Sparks Arrests, Recalls, and Industry Fallout

Jan. 12, 2026 | Food & Water

Authorities in Hai Phong uncovered a major food safety scandal at Ha Long Canfoco Joint Stock Company, triggering arrests and widespread recalls.

**Three days ago, Hai Phong City police discovered more than 130 tons of pork infected with African swine fever in the company’s cold warehouses.**
They found roughly 2 tons processed into finished pate products while over 120 tons remained raw. Several food and beverage brands immediately halted supplies from the company, recalled affected items and suspended menu offerings.

**The Coffee House suspended its Fujian lotus-lychee tea and lychee Americano on January 10 and switched to an alternative lychee supplier, confirming its sandwiches contain no meat from Ha Long Canfoco.**
Phuc Long ceased using the company’s lychee ingredients on January 9, though it sources no meat from Ha Long Canfoco. Highlands Coffee, which does not use the supplier’s pork or pate, temporarily removed all products containing its ingredients—including lychee jelly tea—from outlets and online platforms.

**Sales to major F&B chains represent a small share of Ha Long Canfoco’s receivables.**
As of June 30, 2025, Cao Nguyen Coffee Services JSC—the parent company of Highlands Coffee—held 3 billion VND in short-term receivables, down from 5.8 billion VND in 2023 and 3.7 billion VND in early 2024. Wincommerce Trading Services JSC, a key supermarket client, recorded over 7 billion VND in accounts receivable by mid-2025. Expert Do Duy Thanh observed that Ha Long Canfoco’s ISO 22000:2018 certification and other safety protocols mitigate but cannot fully eliminate such risks.

**On January 10, 2026, Hai Phong police arrested the company’s General Director, 57-year-old Trương Sỹ Toàn, and three quality control officers—Phạm Thị Thúy Lan, Bùi Thị Thoan and Lai Thị Thanh Hương—for collecting, storing and processing infected pork.**
In September 2025, investigators had already prosecuted nine individuals for smuggling over 130 tons of diseased pork into Ha Long Canfoco. Authorities destroyed the contaminated products and continue determining individual legal responsibility within the supply network.

**Following the arrests, major supermarket chains—Lotte Mart, Saigon Co.op, GO!, MM Mega Market, Winmart and Aeon Mall—pulled Ha Long Canfoco products such as Patê Cột đèn Hải Phòng and canned tuna from shelves and initiated recall procedures.**
Consumer backlash has been more severe toward F&B outlets that processed the tainted ingredients than toward retailers selling the supplier’s branded products.

**Founded in 1957 and listed on the Vietnam Stock Exchange under stock code CAN, Ha Long Canfoco operates a 57,187 m2 factory in Hai Phong with an annual output of 4,440 tons of canned meat, fish, spring rolls, sausages, lotus seeds and fruits.**
The company holds MSC Chain of Custody, HACCP and ISO 22000 certifications and supplies major retail chains including Winmart, GO! and BigC. In the first nine months of 2025, it reported 471 billion VND in revenue and 11 billion VND in net profit, despite an 11% year-on-year decline in revenue.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Jan. 12, 2026

News
Media
94

Government
Releases
9

City/State
Releases
0

Embassy
Releases
0

Foreign
Service
Advisories
0

Academic/
Think
Tank
2

Podcasts
0

Videos
0

Social
Media
0

Business
Releases
2

Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.

Risk Categories Reported on Today

Risk Category

Items Reported On

Accidents

Pollution

Corporate Corruption or Fraud

Regulation

Critical Infrastructure Failure

Natural Disasters

Extreme Weather Events

Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.

We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.

Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.

Operations Categories Reported on Today

Operations Category

Items Reported On

Politics and Elections

Economic Growth

Bizdev-Partnering

Political Policy Resistance

Inflation

Asset Price Change

Real Estate

Financial System Problems

Tech Development/Adoption

Wages and Compensation

Demographics

Chất lượng không khí ở nhiều tỉnh thành miền Bắc rất xấu

Air quality in many northern provinces is very poor

VN Express | Local Language | News | Jan. 12, 2026 | Pollution

At 5 a.m. on January 11, several northern provinces in Vietnam recorded very poor air quality, with Bắc Ninh province showing the country's highest AQI of 253. Other monitoring stations in Hưng Yên, Thái Nguyên provinces, and Hanoi registered AQI levels ranging from 203 to 251, indicating significant air pollution. Hanoi's AQI reached 239 at the University of Technology station and 203 at Nguyễn Văn Cừ, with some areas like Trấn Vũ and Hoàn Kiếm Lake recording hazardous levels of 341 and 326 respectively. According to IQAir, Hanoi was ranked the world’s third most polluted city.

Previously, air quality had been moderate to poor due to cold air aiding dust dispersion; however, stable cold air combined with temperature inversion caused pollution levels to rise sharply. The pollution is mainly attributed to fine particulate matter PM2.5, which poses health risks.

Authorities forecast that air quality in Hanoi and Ninh Bình will remain very poor through January 12, with the pollution episode expected to last until January 14, reaching its peak severity on January 11.

Vietnam decides to initiate a new exporter review in the case concerning the application of anti-circumvention measures against trade remedy measures on certain sugar products

ASL Law Firm | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 12, 2026 | Regulation

On 1 August 2022, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade implemented anti-circumvention measures on certain sugar products under Decision No. 1514/QD-BCT. On 3 June 2025, Myanmar Evergreen Sugar Co., Ltd. applied for a new exporter review to assess its eligibility under these measures.

Following the application, the Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam (TRAV) confirmed the application's completeness and validity on 26 November 2025. Subsequently, on 31 December 2025, the Ministry issued Decision No. 3804/QD-BCT initiating the new exporter review under case code NR04.AC02.AD13-AS01.

TRAV invites interested parties to register as participants in the review by submitting the required documentation within 60 working days via the Trade Remedies Online Case Management System. The article also highlights ASL Law, a top-tier Vietnamese law firm specializing in anti-dumping and trade remedy matters, which offers legal assistance to manufacturers and exporters affected by this review.

Vietnam to organise national development into six socio-economic regions

Vietnam Net - E | English | News | Jan. 12, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

Vietnam has adopted a resolution to organise its national development into six socio-economic regions, aiming for a unified, effective, and sustainable growth model by 2030. The country targets becoming a developing nation with a modern industry and upper-middle income status, driven by science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation. Key strategies include developing dynamic regions, economic corridors, and growth poles to enhance socio-economic development and national competitiveness, alongside building modern infrastructure to ensure macroeconomic balance and resilience.

The resolution sets ambitious economic targets such as an average annual GDP growth of over 8% from 2021 to 2030, increasing to 10% or higher from 2026 to 2030. GDP per capita is expected to reach about USD 8,500 by 2030, with social labor productivity growth averaging 7% annually. Total factor productivity is projected to contribute over 55% to growth, with scientific and technological capabilities reaching advanced global standards. The development focus highlights leveraging regional advantages, especially in northern and southern dynamic areas linked to major corridors and growth poles centered around Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

The infrastructure buildout includes completing key North–South expressways, east–west transport axes, approximately 5,000 km of expressways, international seaports, and major airports to support growth. The six socio-economic regions and their respective growth targets for 2026–2030 are: Northern midlands and mountainous region (9–10% GRDP growth), Red River Delta (11%), North Central region (10–10.5%), South Central Coast and Central Highlands (9.5–10%), Southeast region (10–11%), and Mekong Delta (9–9.5%). Each region is assigned specific development priorities, such as green growth, marine economy, science and technology hubs, and sustainable agriculture.

Try the Daily Briefing

Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.

Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.

How can we help?

Full Name:

Email Address:

Type of Inquiry:

Country of Interest:

Contact us for a free trial of the Daily Briefing for your country of choice.

We currently cover:

South Korea
Japan
China
Taiwan
Vietnam
India

info@eruditerisk.com

The Daily Briefing is delivered Monday through Thursday via email.

Each day's reports include a combination of:

Takes
Takes are our deep dives into a topic of enduring interest or concern. Takes include copious references to all the media resources we gathered to build them.

Developments
Developments are key issues and incidents being heavily reported on in country. These are the centers of local thought gravity around which everything else revolves.

Risk Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important risk issues reported on in media, arranged by risk category. Learn about risk trends and issues while they are developing--before they blow up.

Ops Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important operational issues reported on in media, arranged by operations category. See what's changing in your market, and what's not.

Government Releases
Government press and data releases on key economic data, regulation, law, intiatives, incidents. Straight from the government's press to your eyes in less than a day.

Embassy and Business Association Releases
Statements and news releases from foreign embassies and business/industry associations, including chambers of commerce.

The Daily Briefing is comprehensive!

The Daily Briefing can run 50-100 pages each day!

Luckily, Erudite Risk tailors every report specifically to you.

Content Filtering
We try hard to ensure that every piece of information included in each day's reports will be of interest to our readers.

To fulfill our goal of comprehensively monitoring the intelligence landscape and also keeping reports readable, we build big reports--then deliver only the information that applies to you.

Each Daily Briefing is a bespoke report matched to your concerns. Tell us what you want in it, or we can match it to your professional needs. It's that easy.