Vietnam

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Vietnam’s Central Bank Adopts Flexible Policy Amid External Pressures and Sector Resilience in 2025

Dec. 8, 2025 | Financial System

Vietnam’s central bank is implementing a flexible monetary approach to manage external pressures, stabilize the domestic economy and sustain credit expansion.

**Amid geopolitical tensions, rising trade protectionism and unpredictable policies from major central banks, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has adopted a proactive stance for late 2025 into 2026.**
It aims to curb inflation, steady the macroeconomy and support sustainable growth. Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha stressed the SBV’s readiness to adjust policy tools as conditions evolve, coordinating with fiscal and macroeconomic measures to address uncertainties from tariffs, climate impacts and shifts in international financial markets.

**To maintain market liquidity and credit momentum, the SBV continues to provide liquidity support to commercial banks through various instruments, especially during the year-end spike in demand.**
It manages the exchange rate based on market signals and has cut lending rates to sustain credit growth. By late November 2025, outstanding credit had climbed to VND 18.2 million billion, a 16.56 percent year-on-year rise that outpaced last year’s growth. Inflation remained contained, with the Consumer Price Index up 3.29 percent over 11 months and core inflation at 3.21 percent, while GDP expanded about 7.85 percent in the first nine months.

**The SBV and government ministries launched targeted relief for areas hit by heavy rains, storms and floods.**
They instructed credit institutions to assess damage, restructure repayment terms and reduce interest rates by 0.5–2 percent for three to six months, benefiting nearly 24,000 borrowers holding around VND 14,000 billion in loans. Banks also rolled out a VND 70 trillion production-recovery package, disbursing about VND 1,500 billion to 6,500 clients in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. The Vietnam Bank for Social Policies cut lending rates by 2 percent for affected households and plans roughly VND 1,100 billion in subsidies in Q4 2025, with a proposed additional VND 300 billion for storm-damaged customers.

**Complementing these measures, the Ministry of Finance allocated more than VND 6,800 billion from the 2025 central budget for emergency disaster response and recovery in impacted localities.**
Tax and fee policies now allow deferments, extensions and deductions for losses from natural disasters, under detailed guidance to ensure accessibility. Insurance firms must speed up indemnity payments to help businesses and individuals recover more quickly.

**Vietnam’s banking sector remained resilient in 2025, supported by capital increases, rising non-interest income, proactive bad-debt resolution and improved asset quality.**
Problem loans held steady at 2.3 percent, while new non-performing loans fell by 30 basis points in the first nine months. Major banks—BIDV, VietinBank, ACB and Techcombank—drove these gains through robust debt recovery and conservative credit management, especially in mortgages. Strong dividend payouts and positive investor sentiment bolstered bank stocks and overall sector momentum.

**Pockets of risk persist.**
Military Bank carries exposure to renewable energy clients; Sacombank’s SME import-export and aviation portfolios remain under pressure; and Tien Phong Bank and HDBank report rising overdue mortgage loans. VIS Rating expects the industry’s non-performing loan ratio to fall another 10–20 basis points by year-end, supported by accelerated write-offs and amendments to the Law on Credit Institutions that boost transparency and speed up recovery. Profitability varies: large banks benefit from diversified income, strong non-interest income growth and better risk absorption, while mid-to-small institutions face narrower net interest margins, higher funding costs and a declining CASA ratio, now at 19 percent industry-wide. Continued macroeconomic and regulatory support will prove vital to containing localized liquidity and credit risks through year-end.

Vietnam Accelerates Road and Expressway Projects Following Storm Recovery

Dec. 8, 2025 | Infrastructure & Urbanization

Vietnam is advancing several major road infrastructure and highway expansion projects to strengthen its transport network and recover from recent storm damage.

**In November 2025, Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính convened a government meeting to assess infrastructure recovery and development after heavy rains caused landslides on locally managed national highways.**
Repair crews are clearing debris and stabilizing slopes at eight locations where roadways remain closed. On the Vân Phong–Chí Thạnh expressway, severe erosion has damaged the roadbed; targeted repairs should finish by December 30.

**Vietnam’s expressway network will reach 3,188 kilometers by the end of 2025, surpassing the 3,000-kilometer target established by Resolution 50/NQ-CP in 2021.**
Factoring in interchanges and junctions, the network will total at least 3,513 kilometers, complemented by 1,701 kilometers of newly upgraded coastal roads. Inspection teams from the Ministry of Construction and other agencies are completing final checks to confirm that all projects meet standards ahead of their December 19 openings.

**Thirty-four provinces and ministries have registered 239 large-scale projects, worth roughly 1,240,537 billion dong, for groundbreaking or inauguration on December 19, financed 44 percent by the state budget.**
Two additional major projects in Hanoi could raise total investment above 2 million billion dong. Preparations such as land clearance for the Lào Cai–Hanoi–Haiphong railway are proceeding on schedule for the same opening date.

**The 110.8-kilometer Can Tho–Ca Mau expressway is more than 90 percent complete and due to open on December 19, 2025.**
Managed by the My Thuan Project Management Board, the 17-meter-wide route has received over 27,500 billion dong in investment. Crews are finishing asphalt paving at the IC2 interchange, applying lane markings, installing safety barriers and emergency stopping strips every 5 kilometers. Interchanges IC5, which connects to National Highway 61, and IC4 are in final asphalt, tamping and signage installation phases. More than 1,150 machines and 2,100 workers operate in multi-shift schedules, including night shifts when weather permits.

**Work on the Ring Road 2.5 section from Đầm Hồng to National Highway 1A, approved in 2002 but paused at 40 percent completion by 2020, resumed in May 2025 with a planned Q1 2026 finish.**
Teams are laying asphalt, building medians and drainage, installing utilities and landscaping with palm and shade trees. They have cast 118 of 120 girders for the L3 bridge over the Sông Lừ river, and the Kim Đồng underpass is over 70 percent complete. Land disputes and pending household clearances remain the main constraints; local wards are coordinating to address these issues.

**The 2.3-kilometer Thanh Hoa–Sam Son landscape axis road, funded with over 631 billion dong, falls behind schedule owing to land clearance issues across 17.2 hectares involving 589 households.**
Authorities have secured 13 hectares for 424 households, but 4.2 hectares covering 165 households, including an ancestral tomb complex, remain unresolved, delaying construction. Scattered materials around the Sam Son junction force traffic detours and some concrete pillars show rust. On December 2, the Thanh Hoa Provincial People’s Committee ordered relevant units to complete land clearance, resettlement and grave relocations by 2026.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Dec. 8, 2025

News
Media
108

Government
Releases
9

City/State
Releases
0

Embassy
Releases
1

Foreign
Service
Advisories
0

Academic/
Think
Tank
0

Podcasts
0

Videos
0

Social
Media
0

Business
Releases
2

Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.

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Chủ doanh nghiệp xin làm đường sắt cao tốc bị tố đi vay 30 triệu xong trốn

Business owner applying to build high-speed railway accused of borrowing 30 million then running away

Dantri | Local Language | News | Dec. 8, 2025 | Corporate Corruption or Fraud

Enterprise and Integration magazine, affiliated with the Vietnam Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, has sent a document to senior government officials raising concerns about Discovery Group Joint Stock Company. Discovery Group, which proposes to invest in the North–South high-speed railway project, reportedly owes debts to the magazine and has not paid for an extended period. The magazine initially filed for bankruptcy proceedings against the company, but a Hanoi court later issued a notice about withdrawing the petition.

Investigations into Discovery Group and its Chairman, Nguyễn Nam Thiều, revealed that the company's Hanoi office is frequently closed, with minimal staff when open, while its Ho Chi Minh City branch has been shut for over a year due to unpaid rent. The company has generated little to no revenue for many years, resulting in no tax obligations. Nguyễn Nam Thiều personally borrowed small sums of money from individuals and has evaded repaying these debts to various organizations and individuals.

The magazine also referenced a Dân trí newspaper article which highlighted the lack of verifiable information on Discovery Group’s real estate projects, reflecting the company’s questionable operational status. The magazine expressed concern over the company’s capability to undertake such a significant national project. During a meeting, Nguyễn Nam Thiều stated the group has about 70 employees and capital of 2,000–3,000 billion dong, only a fraction (0.2%) of the total investment needed for the railway project, estimated at 67 billion USD.

PM urges urgent action on air pollution in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City

Vietnam Net - E | English | News | Dec. 8, 2025 | Pollution

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh held a Government Party Committee Standing Board and Government Standing Committee meeting on December 5 to discuss unresolved environmental and climate challenges, including Ho Chi Minh City’s flood prevention project. He urged agencies to promptly finalize a report for the Politburo addressing these issues, ensuring quality and timely submission.

The Mekong Delta, vital to Vietnam’s agriculture and exports, is facing severe environmental threats such as land subsidence, erosion, flooding, drought, and saltwater intrusion. The Prime Minister emphasized a “nature-based adaptation” approach for the action plan, requiring detailed analysis, clear objectives, and revised policies to secure funding, with at least 35% expected from non-governmental sources. He also highlighted the importance of scientific programs, new technologies, population resettlement, and coastal forest protection.

Regarding Ho Chi Minh City’s flood prevention project, major obstacles have been resolved with new legal mechanisms from the Politburo and National Assembly, allowing the project to progress without further Politburo intervention. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment also compiled other environmental projects nationwide.

The Prime Minister approved a national action plan for pollution remediation and air quality management covering 2026–2030 with a vision to 2045. He called for immediate pollution control initiatives in key cities, especially Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, urging implementation where laws permit and requesting ministries to propose legal adjustments if needed for project advancement.

Luật Đầu tư sửa đổi: Mở đường cho một chu kỳ tăng trưởng mới

Amended Investment Law: Paving the Way for a New Growth Cycle

Bao Dien Tu | Local Language | News | Dec. 8, 2025 | Regulation

The Government of Vietnam has submitted a draft amended Investment Law to the National Assembly aimed at creating a more transparent, efficient, and business-friendly investment environment. The law addresses long-standing procedural bottlenecks, overly complex and outdated business conditions, and overlapping legal frameworks that currently hinder economic development and investment attraction. By streamlining approval processes, reducing conditional business lines, and prioritizing high-tech and green economy sectors, the law seeks to enhance Vietnam’s competitiveness in attracting high-value foreign direct investment (FDI) amid global competition.

Key reforms include significantly reducing pre-approval requirements for investment projects, shifting many to a registration and post-inspection system, which is expected to shorten project preparation times and reduce corruption risks. The law also narrows the list of conditional business sectors to foster greater entrepreneurial freedom and reduce unofficial costs. Importantly, it establishes high technology, digital economy, and green economy sectors as central to investment incentives, reflecting Vietnam’s strategic development goals for 2025–2035.

Additional reforms facilitate market entry for foreign investors by allowing company establishment prior to investment registration, aligning with international best practices. Enforcement provisions are strengthened to prevent project speculation and inefficient resource use, thereby ensuring sustainable investment growth. If enacted promptly, the amended law is anticipated to accelerate economic recovery, increase both private and foreign investment, boost market confidence, and position Vietnam as a leading destination for advanced technology industries. The law represents a foundational shift toward a development model driven by speed, transparency, and business creativity.

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