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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Households | (House-price-to-income ratio ↑ → Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Precautionary savings gap ↑) | Widening precautionary savings gaps cut discretionary spending and dampen consumption growth. |
| Households | (Household debt-service ratio ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Consumer confidence diffusion index ↓ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑) | Increased consumption volatility complicates macroeconomic management and undermines stable growth. |
| Financial System | (Credit-to-GDP gap ↑ → Financial-conditions index ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↑ → Shadow-bank default cascades ↑) | Heightened crash risk could trigger widespread defaults in shadow banks and amplify financial instability. |
| Governance & Law | (Policy-implementation speed ↓ → Public-investment execution ratio ↓ → Infrastructure-quality index ↓ → Urban productivity premium ↓) | Slower policy execution and poorer infrastructure depress urban productivity and competitiveness. |
| Infrastructure & Urbanization | (Construction-permit issuance time ↑ → Housing-affordability index ↓ → Informal-settlement growth rate ↑ → Informal-settlement population share ↑) | Delays in permits fuel informal settlements, straining municipal services and exacerbating urban inequality. |
| Firms | (Market concentration trend ↑ → SME loan-rejection rate ↑ → Business-formation rate ↓ → Employment growth in the business sector ↓) | Tighter SME lending and lower start-ups slow job creation and hinder inclusive business-sector growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Credit impulse (% GDP) ↑ → Asset-price wealth effect ↑ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑ → Output gap (% GDP) ↓) | Consumption swings widen the output gap, complicating policy efforts to stabilize growth. |
| Households | (Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Income-volatility (monthly) ↑ → Social-trust composite swing ↓ → Residential protest vandalism rate ↑) | Rising housing stress erodes social trust and can spur protest-related vandalism. |
| Politics | (Policy-uncertainty index deviation ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↓ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↓ → Potential GDP growth revision ↓) | Heightened policy uncertainty reduces FDI and business investment, prompting downward revisions to potential GDP growth. |
| Financial System | (Asset-price valuation metrics ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↓ → Financial-conditions index ↑ → Credit-availability index (SME loan approval) ↑) | Valuation corrections ease crash risk, improving conditions and boosting SME credit availability. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Xây hồ điều hòa gần 600 tỷ đồng để giải quyết ngập úng ở Nha Trang
Constructing a nearly 600 billion VND regulating lake to resolve flooding in Nha Trang
Dantri | Local Language | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | Extreme Weather Events
On January 17, the People's Committee of Khánh Hòa province approved a nearly 600 billion VND investment in a regulating lake project for Tây Nha Trang ward in Nha Trang city. The project aims to construct multifunctional infrastructure that fundamentally resolves flooding in the urban area while creating a green, modern public space to improve quality of life and promote sustainable development.
The project scope includes building a regulating lake, a lakeside pedestrian walkway with tree planting, a water channel along the railway into the lake, and a drainage channel from the lake to the Cái River. The construction is scheduled to take place from 2025 to 2027.
In addition, a separate project proposal with an estimated investment of nearly 2,000 billion VND has been submitted to build a road combined with a flood drainage canal in Tây Nha Trang and surrounding areas. This project aims to enhance drainage capacity and reduce flood risks in the locality.
These projects come in response to the historic rain and floods in mid-November 2025, which caused 22 deaths, damaged over 1,000 houses, and destroyed many works and crops. The total damage from the disaster is estimated at more than 5,000 billion VND, with Tây Nha Trang ward among the hardest-hit areas.
Vietnam accelerates rare earth strategy to strengthen strategic autonomy
Vietnam Net - E | English | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
On January 17, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired a high-level cabinet meeting where the government reviewed several key agendas, notably the national rare earth strategy. Emphasizing the importance of rare earth development as a foundation for national self-reliance, the Prime Minister outlined five main policy directions and stressed strengthened state management. Vietnam, home to some of the world's largest rare earth reserves, plans to transition from raw extraction to advanced processing and application, focusing on institutional reform, deep processing technologies, and high-quality value chains.
The strategy encourages public-private partnerships, backed by financial incentives aimed at attracting domestic and foreign investments. Government agencies are tasked with facilitating technology transfer and adopting sustainable extraction and processing methods. Additionally, digital transformation will be utilized to enhance governance, transparency, and resource tracing throughout the rare earth value chain. Collaboration between central and local governments, scientific institutions, and the private sector is set to be a cornerstone, with an emphasis on smart governance and environmental protection to balance economic and ecological priorities.
The meeting also addressed challenges in transitional build-transfer (BT) infrastructure projects initiated before regulatory updates. The Prime Minister directed the Ministry of Finance and related bodies to expedite drafting a government resolution to resolve legal issues promptly. For projects already audited, the resolution will guide compliance and corrections, while those pending oversight will be managed by provincial authorities, emphasizing local accountability. The resolution aims to respect legal standards, fairness, and risk balance among the state, investors, and the public.
Vietnam’s accelerated rare earth strategy arises amid increasing global demand for rare earths used in electric vehicles, smartphones, and defense technologies, with supply concentrated in few countries. By advancing processing capabilities and technology, Vietnam aims to add strategic value to its rare earth resources, enhancing its role in the green economy, digital transformation, and global tech supply chains, thereby reinforcing its economic sovereignty.
Không lập hóa đơn bán hàng bị phạt tới 80 triệu đồng: Chi tiết mức xử phạt
Failure to issue sales invoices can result in fines up to 80 million VND: Detailed penalties
Dantri | Local Language | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | Regulation
From January 16, 2026, new administrative sanctions on taxation and invoice violations under Decree 310/2025, amending Decree 125/2020, have come into effect. These regulations aim to tighten tax administration discipline and address enforcement shortcomings. A key change is that if a taxpayer misdeclares multiple items on the same tax return, only one administrative violation is penalized—specifically, the item with the largest tax misdeclaration. When multiple misdeclarations do not affect the tax amount, a single penalty corresponding to the number of erroneous invoices applies, preventing overlapping fines and promoting fairness.
Organizations, enterprises, business households, individual businesspeople, and cooperatives are mandated to issue invoices during sales transactions. The new decree revises fines related to invoice violations, distinguishing between issuing invoices late and not issuing invoices at all, with penalties based on the number of violating invoices. Failure to issue invoices for 50 or more goods or services triggers fines from 60 to 80 million VND, while lower numbers of invoices correspond to smaller fines, starting at 1–2 million VND for a single invoice. Issuing invoices late incurs fines from 500,000 VND up to 70 million VND, compared to previous fines of 4–8 million VND for late issuance and 10–20 million VND for non-issuance.
Violations discovered after January 16 will be subject to the new penalty framework. For violations occurring before that date but discovered later, the more lenient regulation will apply. Additionally, fines for organizations are double those for individuals, following existing sanctioning principles. These revisions are intended to enhance compliance with tax and invoice regulations and foster a fairer, more transparent business environment.
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