Vietnam

Kinh tế Việt Nam 2026: Tăng trưởng cao và phép thử về nền tảng, thực thi

Bao Dien Tu | Local Language | News | Jan. 6, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

Vietnam's economy in 2025 maintained stability despite global uncertainties such as trade tensions, supply chain restructuring, and varying monetary policies from major economies. Growth and macroeconomic stability improved simultaneously, with inflation controlled within target ranges and overall economic balances remaining stable. The economy demonstrated resilience, with growth driven by multiple sectors including manufacturing, exports, services, and domestic consumption, rather than a single source.

Key drivers of growth in 2025 included the manufacturing and export sectors, especially electronics, technology, and processing linked to foreign direct investment, along with a notable rebound in tourism that boosted domestic consumption. Some cyclical factors, like firms accelerating exports ahead of new tariffs, supported short-term growth but posed sustainability risks. The challenge moving forward is to shift focus from these cyclical factors to more sustainable foundations in production and consumer markets.

Inflation remained below the National Assembly’s target, allowing monetary policy to support growth. Exchange rate fluctuations reflected external pressures such as US interest rate differentials and trade-investment cycles, but proactive management by the State Bank helped maintain confidence and limit shocks. These pressures require ongoing monitoring but are not yet indicative of long-term structural changes.

Looking ahead to 2026, the National Assembly has set a high growth target of 10% or more, emphasizing the need for significant institutional reforms to support sustainable development. Resolution 244/2025/QH15 prioritizes removing regulatory barriers and cutting administrative procedures by at least 50% in costs and time, aiming to enhance competitiveness and reduce business costs. This reform effort surpasses previous commitments and demands concrete actions from ministries, industries, and localities.

Public investment remains a crucial growth support but poses a challenge regarding implementation quality. Emphasis is placed on balancing timely project completion with long-term infrastructure effectiveness. Delays in issuing regulatory guidance following new laws also present direct constraints on economic performance. The success of Vietnam's 2026 growth ambitions hinges on its institutional reform implementation, effective public investment, and prudent policy management to ensure growth is sustainable beyond short-term gains.

Vietnam Net - E | English | News | Jan. 6, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

In 2025, China and Vietnam marked the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic relations, designated as the Year of China–Vietnam People-to-People Exchange. Chinese Ambassador to Vietnam He Wei highlighted 2025 as a transformative year, describing relations as "singing loud, advancing strong." The year featured a historic state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Vietnam, during which 45 cooperation agreements were signed, a record number. High-level exchanges between leaders from both countries occurred with unprecedented frequency in late 2025, further strengthening bilateral ties.

Several notable firsts occurred in 2025, including the inaugural joint session between the Vietnamese National Assembly and China’s National People's Congress, and upgrading the 3+3 strategic dialogue mechanism to the ministerial level, a unique arrangement. Economic ties deepened, with bilateral trade surpassing previous records, exceeding USD 250 billion in the first 11 months. Cross-border traffic also increased significantly, and key cooperation milestones included the first joint land forces training and participation of a Chinese PLA honor guard in Vietnam’s National Day parade. People-to-people exchanges expanded with programs like the "Red Journey," connecting Vietnamese youth with historical sites related to President Ho Chi Minh in China.

Ambassador He Wei emphasized three pillars underpinning bilateral relations: scale, substance, and innovation. China remains Vietnam’s largest trading partner and top source of new investment, particularly in high-tech sectors and green energy. Vietnam exports significant agricultural products to China, notably durian, which accounts for over 90% of Vietnam’s durian export value. Tourism and payment interoperability between the countries have improved, and critical infrastructure projects such as standard-gauge railways and waste-to-energy facilities are advancing. Both nations promote technological innovation and economic modernization, aligning with China's 15th Five-Year Plan and Vietnam’s innovation-driven growth strategy.

People-to-people ties flourished further, with enhanced cultural and educational exchanges, including over 20,000 Vietnamese students studying in China in 2025—the highest worldwide number of HSK Chinese proficiency test takers. Mutual respect for historical figures and shared heritage was reinforced by maintaining sites honoring President Ho Chi Minh’s revolutionary activities and inaugurating a monument for Chinese military experts in Vietnam. Ambassador He Wei reaffirmed China’s commitment to supporting Vietnam’s 14th National Party Congress in 2026 and expressed readiness to deepen strategic and practical cooperation going forward.

Vietnam Net - E | English | News | Jan. 6, 2026 | UndeterminedDemographics

In 2026, Vietnam faces a critical turning point in its development trajectory, aiming to transition from a middle-income to a high-income, developed country by 2045. This year marks a strategic shift from relying on past growth momentum to pursuing sustainable, stable growth through reforms that emphasize productivity and innovation.

Vietnam is currently experiencing a unique demographic advantage, with over 65% of its population in the workforce and a rapidly expanding middle class that supports consumption and demands improved institutions. However, this demographic potential will only drive economic growth if matched by reforms in education, public policy, and the business environment that foster creativity, productivity, and higher value creation.

Despite significant progress—GDP per capita rising from under $700 in 1986 to nearly $5,000, poverty rates dropping below 1%, and improvements in education, health, and infrastructure—challenges remain. Productivity gains have slowed, and Vietnam struggles to attract major high-tech investments compared to regional peers. Structural barriers, including complex legal environments and weak policy enforcement, threaten the country’s growth ambitions.

To meet the 2045 development goals, Vietnam must increase productivity by about 1.8% annually while maintaining investment around 36% of GDP. Relying solely on increased investment or productivity is unrealistic, highlighting the need to move away from the old growth model dependent on capital and labor expansion. The government seeks to shift from a "stability for development" approach to "development for stability," emphasizing transparent, effective institutions and a more dynamic economy led by the private sector.

Economist Tran Dinh Thien underscores the necessity of an "institutional breakthrough" focused on market-based resource allocation, a simplified administrative system, and a competitive environment for private firms to innovate and grow. Achieving high growth targets requires systemic innovation, improved policy quality, and societal engagement.

Vietnam’s 2026 agenda revolves around enhancing growth quality, streamlining administration, fostering innovation and the digital economy, developing green infrastructure, empowering regions, and ensuring fair treatment for the private sector. While challenging, this moment represents an opportunity for Vietnam to leverage its demographic strength into sustainable productivity and progress, setting the foundation for its ambition to become a strong, fair, and modern developed nation by 2045.