Vietnam

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Diverging Fortunes Reshape Vietnam’s Real Estate Sector in 2025
Nov. 13, 2025 | Firms

Vietnam’s real estate sector in the first three quarters of 2025 reveals a stark divide between heavily indebted loss-makers and profit-driven developers.

**As financial results emerged, DRH Holdings JSC extended its loss streak to ten quarters, posting a net loss of nearly VND26 billion in Q3 and accumulating roughly VND157 billion in losses over nine months.**
Novaland (NVL) reported its fourth straight quarterly loss—VND878 billion in Q3—despite generating VND5.4 trillion in net revenue, and its outstanding debt climbed to VND64.3 trillion, surpassing 25 percent of its assets. Vinahud JSC (VHD) saw revenue plunge by more than 85 percent, driving a nine-month loss of nearly VND80 billion.

**Regulatory scrutiny has deepened pressures on some developers.**
The State Securities Commission fined Sonadezi Chau Duc JSC (SZC) VND507.5 million for failing to disclose mandatory information and misusing VND67.4 billion from its 2024 share issuance to finance projects and repay loans without shareholder approval. Authorities instructed SZC to secure shareholder consent at its next general meeting before reallocating capital.

**In contrast, Vinhomes JSC (VHM) posted a consolidated after-tax profit of more than VND15.3 trillion in the latest quarter.**
Contracted sales nearly doubled year-on-year to over VND162 trillion in the first nine months, and unrecognized contracted sales reached a record VND224 trillion, driven by the Vinhomes Green Paradise project. Phat Dat Corporation (PDR) also recorded rising revenue and net profit in Q3, with property transfers contributing net gains equal to 29 percent of its full-year target over nine months.

**Quoc Cuong Gia Lai JSC (QCG) posted a modest profit in Q3 while reducing debt by repaying VND900 billion on a residential project, although its balance sheet shows increased personal loans extended by executives’ relatives.**
Thuduc House JSC (TDH) delivered its highest quarterly net profit in nearly four years—VND84 billion—largely from other income after winning a tax lawsuit.

**These results mark a divided industry landscape, where some companies struggle under heavy debt loads, sustained losses, and regulatory penalties, while others drive profitability through strong sales, legal victories, and high-margin projects.**
Vietnam’s Shift to Premium Branded Rice Exports Gains Global Recognition
Nov. 13, 2025 | Firms

Vietnam’s rice sector has transformed from mass bulk exports into a premium, branded market that garners international acclaim and higher returns.

**This transformation began with the ST25 rice variety, which won “World’s Best Rice” titles in 2019, 2023 and 2025 at the Global Rice Trade Conference in Phnom Penh alongside Cambodia’s Phka Romdoul rice.**
International acclaim for ST25—renowned for its long, translucent kernels, pandan aroma and flavor retention when cooled—catapulted Vietnam from low-cost bulk shipments to premium, branded exports.

**The repeated success of ST25 demonstrated the variety’s superior grain quality and elevated Vietnam’s status in the premium rice market.**
Between 2019 and 2024, Vietnam boosted its premium rice export share from 15–18% to over 35%, and fragrant and specialty rice shipments more than doubled, surpassing 3 million tons.

**Average export prices climbed from roughly USD 435 per ton in 2019 to over USD 640 per ton in 2024, a 15-year high, pushing total rice export turnover to a record USD 4.78 billion.**
Premium varieties like ST25 now fetch between USD 700 and 1,000 per ton, allowing Vietnam to compete directly with established exporters such as Thailand in discerning markets.

**To support this premiumization, the government introduced the 2023 Strategy for Developing the Vietnam Rice Brand to 2030.**
This strategy protects the ST25 trademark internationally, builds a cohesive national “Vietnam Rice” brand and promotes high-quality production practices across the value chain, from cultivation and processing to branding and market distribution.

**In response to market demands and regulatory standards, farmers and enterprises have adopted quality assurance systems such as VietGAP and GlobalGAP, along with emission-reduction production models.**
Major agricultural companies have launched dedicated ST25 and ST24 product lines tailored to stringent export destinations, including the United States, European Union, Japan, South Korea, the Middle East and Singapore, and now feature branded rice in international retail outlets instead of anonymous bulk packaging.

**The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is expanding high-quality cultivation areas for ST24 and ST25 using linked-chain production models that emphasize environmental sustainability, traceability and emission reduction, aiming to establish an integrated, high-end rice value chain that ensures consistent product quality from the paddy field to consumers.**

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Nov. 14, 2025


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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Đề xuất mới cho phép các ngân hàng nắm giữ nhiều vàng hơn

New Proposal Allows Banks to Hold More Gold

Dantri | Local Language | News | Nov. 14, 2025 | Regulation

The State Bank of Vietnam is proposing to raise the end-of-day gold position limit for credit institutions authorized to produce gold bars from 2% to 5% of their own capital. This change is outlined in a draft Circular intended to replace Circular No. 38/2012/TT-NHNN. The gold position includes the volume of gold bars produced, transactions involving gold bars and spot raw gold, as well as off-balance-sheet commitments related to these activities. For credit institutions only permitted to trade gold bars without producing or importing/exporting, the gold position limit remains at 2%. Institutions are prohibited from maintaining a negative gold position, and any exceeding of limits requires approval from the State Bank Governor.

Currently, eight banks meet the charter capital requirements specified in Decree 24, which sets a minimum of 50,000 billion VND. These are Vietcombank, VietinBank, BIDV, Agribank, Techcombank, MB, VPBank, and ACB. Assuming they all qualify to produce, export, and import gold bars as well as import raw gold, their collective 5% gold position equates to approximately 2.56 billion USD or roughly 20 tons of gold, based on their capital as of September 30, current exchange rates, and international gold prices. However, the issuance of quotas for these activities still depends on the State Bank's discretion.

The State Bank believes increasing the gold position limit will help boost gold supply in the domestic market amid high global gold prices and expanded banking activities in gold trading. This measure is designed to help narrow the price gap between domestic and international gold prices while maintaining banking system safety, as the increased gold positions remain proportionate to banks’ own capital and financial capacity under Decree 24’s conditions.

Nhu cầu dầu toàn cầu sẽ tăng đến năm 2050

Global oil demand will increase until 2050

VN Express | Local Language | News | Nov. 14, 2025 | UndeterminedEnergy Prices

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its World Energy Outlook report on November 12, 2025, projecting that global oil demand will increase to 113 million barrels per day by 2050, representing a 13% rise from the previous year. This forecast indicates that oil demand may continue to grow for more than two decades, marking a shift from earlier predictions of a rapid transition to clean energy. The IEA also cautioned that current trends suggest the world will likely miss climate targets.

The report is based on the current policies scenario, which includes only enacted regulations and does not factor in climate goals, a method last applied in 2019 before the IEA shifted to carbon neutrality-aligned forecasts. Under this scenario, global LNG markets are expected to more than double, growing from 560 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 1,020 billion cubic meters by 2050, driven by increased electricity demand from data centers and AI expansion.

Previously, under U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration, the IEA had forecast peak oil demand within this decade and recommended halting new oil and gas investments to meet climate objectives. However, insufficient national climate plans have delayed updated assessments for 2031-2035. The IEA, funded mainly by member countries with the U.S. as the top contributor, remains influential in shaping global energy policies but has recently faced criticism from the U.S. amid calls to boost domestic oil and gas production.

Đại biểu Quốc hội: Hãng bay cần tự động hoàn tiền cho khách bị chậm, hủy chuyến

National Assembly Deputies: Airlines Should Automatically Refund Customers for Delays and Cancellations

VN Express | Local Language | News | Nov. 14, 2025 | Regulation

On November 12, the National Assembly debated amendments to the Civil Aviation Law, focusing on improving compensation mechanisms for passengers affected by domestic flight delays and cancellations. Current statistics show a decline in on-time performance, with the overall industry rate at 64.6%, Vietjet at 55%, and Vietnam Airlines at about 70%. Deputies expressed concern over vague regulations regarding refunds and compensation, citing frequent delays and poor communication from airlines.

Deputy Huỳnh Thị Phúc highlighted passenger frustration with unclear delay reasons and frequent delays exceeding two hours, sometimes causing confrontations. She proposed strict limits on the number of allowable delays, mandatory public disclosure of delay reasons, and a maximum refund timeline of seven working days. Similarly, Deputy Nguyễn Tâm Hùng recommended automatic compensation within seven days, a 3-day complaint response time, and a full resolution within 30 days, banning deductions of service fees from refunds when the fault lies with the airline.

Currently, compensation ranges from 200,000 to 400,000 VND for domestic flights and 25 to 150 USD for international routes, with a required payout period not exceeding 14 working days. Minister of Construction Trần Hồng Minh acknowledged infrastructure constraints, particularly at Tân Sơn Nhất airport, as a significant cause of delays. He explained the airport’s runways are too close for simultaneous takeoffs and landings, requiring substantial investment for expansion. Weather-related disruptions also contribute to delays, he noted, urging understanding from deputies and the public.

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