Vietnam

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Surging Prices and Policy Shifts Reshape Vietnam’s Real Estate Market

Jan. 15, 2026 | Firms

Vietnam’s real estate market has experienced significant price surges, policy interventions, and shifting investment patterns across sectors.

**Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính opened the 5th Central Steering Committee session on January 13, 2026 by demanding a clampdown on speculation and inflated prices in commercial housing and apartments, emphasizing that housing must remain accessible as an essential need.**
The Ministry of Construction reported that apartment prices climbed 20–30 percent over the past year, with some areas seeing increases above 40 percent, and adjacent houses and land plots rose substantially as well.

**The Prime Minister directed the Ministry of Finance to study tax measures that discourage speculation and channel investment into productive sectors.**
The ministry had proposed a 20 percent tax on the price difference in real estate transfers but withdrew it, leaving the current 2 percent transfer value tax intact. According to the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers, more than 75 percent of transactions in 2025 involved buyers acquiring second or multiple homes, reflecting investment-driven demand.

**The State Bank of Vietnam must tighten controls on real estate credit and implement risk management policies tied to property lending.**
By the end of Q3 2025, banks’ real estate loans reached about 1.82 million billion đồng—up 35 percent year-on-year—and accounted for roughly 10 percent of total outstanding loans. The State Bank expects credit growth of around 15 percent in 2026, depending on economic conditions.

**The Ministry of Construction will devise mechanisms to supply housing for middle-income groups (earning above 20 million đồng per month) and instruct local authorities to assess demand for social rental housing and units for public officials.**
It plans to expedite procedures for social housing, especially rental projects. Seventeen provinces and cities reported rental demands totaling over 67,100 units, although Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have yet to submit their figures.

**Southern Vietnam’s real estate market saw a surge in mergers and acquisitions in 2025 after nearly three years of stagnation, signaling intense consolidation.**
Domestic developers restructured portfolios to ease financial pressures, and well-capitalized investors bought land with clear legal status. Notable deals included DIC Group’s transfer of four subdivisions in the Dai Phuoc eco-tourism urban area for nearly VND 3 trillion; LDG Group’s sale of the LDG Sky residential project in Thu Duc City; Ngan Hiep Real Estate’s acquisition of over 30 million SEA shares for more than VND 1 trillion to secure a prime plot in District 1; and Son Kim Land’s effective control of the Saigon Broadway project. Foreign investors lost ground to domestic players in major deals, though CapitaLand Tower acquired over 150 hectares in the Vinhomes Green Paradise project in Can Gio for nearly VND 17.5 trillion. Avison Young noted declines in both the number and average value of M&A transactions in 2025 compared with the 2021–2022 boom, with longer negotiations as buyers focused on legal due diligence and risk assessment.

**Most deals took place in Ho Chi Minh City (15 in the central urban area and one in Binh Duong), while satellite cities around Hanoi accounted for eleven transactions and one deal occurred in central Vietnam.**
Avison Young observed that long-term capital shifted toward satellite cities, driven by strong housing demand, decentralization, and rapid infrastructure development, as buyers reposition assets for future growth.

**Apartment prices continued to rise sharply in 2025, especially in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.**
In Q3, the average primary sale price reached about 95 million VND/m² in Hanoi and 91 million VND/m² in Ho Chi Minh City, with many central projects listing between 120 and 150 million VND/m². More than 43 percent of new apartments on the primary market carried prices above 120 million VND/m². The Vietnam Real Estate Market Research Institute found that prices since 2019 have climbed by 96.2 percent in Hanoi, 77.1 percent in Da Nang, and 56.9 percent in Ho Chi Minh City. Many projects reported sharp unit price increases of several hundred million to over one billion VND, despite limited improvements in infrastructure or quality.

**As of January 13, 2026, Deputy Minister of Construction Nguyễn Văn Sinh reported that Vietnam’s real estate market comprised 2,169 commercial housing and urban area projects, 698 social housing projects, and 548 infrastructure projects for land transfers to individuals.**
After a recovery since 2022 produced 580,437 transactions in 2025, housing prices continued to rise by 10–15 percent annually for apartments, townhouses, villas, and land plots, while prices in tourism, commercial, office, and industrial real estate grew at a slower pace.

**Inventory levels for apartments, detached houses, and land plots increased compared with Q3 2025, with apartments and detached houses reaching about 138 percent of that quarter’s stock.**
The Ministry of Construction pointed to a supply focused mainly on mid-to-high-end segments, a lack of affordable housing for industrial workers and low-income groups, project delays due to legal issues, and inefficient use of land and capital as factors driving prices higher.

**Experts including Nguyễn Văn Đính of the Vietnam Real Estate Association cited a persistent mismatch in supply, noting that appropriately priced apartments are almost nonexistent and that a limited rental market intensifies home-ownership demand, further driving up prices.**
They recommend developing rental housing for workers and expanding social and affordable commercial housing to meet broader demand and stabilize the market.

**Dr.**
Nguyễn Sĩ Dũng identified institutional and procedural costs as major barriers that push developers toward high-end projects. He called for reducing these costs, ensuring legal security for public officials, and offering attractive incentives for producing reasonably priced commercial housing, while warning against complex dual-pricing mechanisms.

**The Ministry of Construction will review housing laws and policies for consistency and practicality, streamline investment procedures, enhance administrative reforms, and apply digital transformation to housing and real estate management.**
It will also push localities to implement the National Housing Development Strategy 2021–2030 and align housing development with actual demand to balance supply and prices.

**The 2026 agenda includes advancing a government resolution to develop at least one million social housing units by 2030, establishing a National Housing Fund, continuing demolition of unsafe houses, improving housing data systems through integration of multiple government databases, increasing transparency, strengthening inspection and enforcement of laws, and considering the creation of a state-run Real Estate and Land Use Rights Trading Center to support market stability and development.**

### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**

Domain	Causal Chain	Possible Outcome
Households	(House-price-to-income ratio ↑ → Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Precautionary savings gap ↑)	Widening precautionary savings gaps cut discretionary spending and dampen consumption growth.
Households	(Household debt-service ratio ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Consumer confidence diffusion index ↓ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑)	Increased consumption volatility complicates macroeconomic management and undermines stable growth.
Financial System	(Credit-to-GDP gap ↑ → Financial-conditions index ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↑ → Shadow-bank default cascades ↑)	Heightened crash risk could trigger widespread defaults in shadow banks and amplify financial instability.
Governance & Law	(Policy-implementation speed ↓ → Public-investment execution ratio ↓ → Infrastructure-quality index ↓ → Urban productivity premium ↓)	Slower policy execution and poorer infrastructure depress urban productivity and competitiveness.
Infrastructure & Urbanization	(Construction-permit issuance time ↑ → Housing-affordability index ↓ → Informal-settlement growth rate ↑ → Informal-settlement population share ↑)	Delays in permits fuel informal settlements, straining municipal services and exacerbating urban inequality.
Firms	(Market concentration trend ↑ → SME loan-rejection rate ↑ → Business-formation rate ↓ → Employment growth in the business sector ↓)	Tighter SME lending and lower start-ups slow job creation and hinder inclusive business-sector growth.
Macroeconomics & Growth	(Credit impulse (% GDP) ↑ → Asset-price wealth effect ↑ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑ → Output gap (% GDP) ↓)	Consumption swings widen the output gap, complicating policy efforts to stabilize growth.
Households	(Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Income-volatility (monthly) ↑ → Social-trust composite swing ↓ → Residential protest vandalism rate ↑)	Rising housing stress erodes social trust and can spur protest-related vandalism.
Politics	(Policy-uncertainty index deviation ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↓ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↓ → Potential GDP growth revision ↓)	Heightened policy uncertainty reduces FDI and business investment, prompting downward revisions to potential GDP growth.
Financial System	(Asset-price valuation metrics ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↓ → Financial-conditions index ↑ → Credit-availability index (SME loan approval) ↑)	Valuation corrections ease crash risk, improving conditions and boosting SME credit availability.

### BOTTOM LINE

- Key recent developments include rapid residential price growth (20–40% in the past year and nearly doubling in Hanoi since 2019), a 35% year-on-year expansion in bank real-estate lending to VND 1.82 million billion, an announced government clampdown on speculation with potential transaction taxes, and a wave of domestic M&A consolidating prime land into fewer, well-capitalized firms.

- Core drivers behind these developments are strong investment-driven demand (more than 75% of 2025 buyers acquiring second or multiple homes), abundant and cheaper credit flowing into property, a persistent mismatch between available supply and affordability (market skewed to mid/high-end products), and legal/administrative frictions that favor high-margin projects over affordable housing.

- A primary causal chain runs from rising prices to expanding mortgage and developer credit, which increases household debt-service burdens and financial-system exposure and therefore raises the probability of loan performance deterioration if credit conditions tighten or prices correct.

- Another causal link runs from policy responses (anti-speculation measures, proposed transfer taxes, tighter lending rules) to short-term transaction slowdown and longer due-diligence cycles, which will likely reduce liquidity and prolong development timelines while potentially cooling speculative price momentum.

- Consolidation in the developer sector is causally connected to earlier financial strain and will raise market concentration, which in turn increases counterparty risk for banks and reduces competition for land and projects, likely elevating barriers to entry for SMEs and constraining employment creation in construction and services.

- Because supply growth remains concentrated in mid-to-high-end segments while demand is strong for affordable and rental housing, the most likely near-term social consequence is growing affordability pressure for workers and first-time buyers, increased precautionary household saving, and weaker non-housing consumption growth.

- With real-estate loans already around 10% of outstanding bank credit and rising, the most plausible financial-system ramification is greater sensitivity of bank asset quality to a property market correction, making targeted macroprudential tightening (LTV caps, borrower stress tests, provisioning) a necessary near-term policy lever to avoid broader credit contraction.

- The government’s consideration of a high tax on price differences and orders to tighten credit will reduce speculative flipping if implemented, but a poorly calibrated or abrupt tax will materially reduce market liquidity, encourage tax arbitrage and informal transactions, and could deter some foreign direct investment into real-estate-related projects.

- Practical policy sequencing that reduces downside risk includes immediate tightening of mortgage underwriting standards and macroprudential tools, paired with accelerated approvals and incentives for social and rental housing, a dedicated funding window for affordable‑housing developers, and legal-process reforms to speed title clearance and reduce transaction costs.

- To stabilize expectations and preserve investment, authorities should prioritize clear, phased communication of new rules, publish exposure data (bank real-estate concentrations, developer leverage), and set predictable timelines for any transfer‑tax design so investors can price risk rather than abruptly withdraw liquidity.

- Market monitoring should focus on three leading indicators that will signal systemic stress: quarterly growth in real-estate lending and LTV averages, secondary-market transaction volumes and days-on-market, and non-performing loan flows in banks and shadow-lenders exposed to property; these indicators should trigger pre-defined supervisory actions.

- Firms and investors should prepare for a longer negotiation and due-diligence cycle, prioritize assets with clear legal title and infrastructure connectivity, and shift part of capital allocation toward rental, affordable, and satellite-city projects where demographic and infrastructure trends point to more sustainable demand growth.

Long Thanh International Airport Development Accelerates to Meet Surging Aviation Demand in Vietnam

Jan. 15, 2026 | Infrastructure & Urbanization

Vietnam is expanding its aviation sector by developing Long Thanh International Airport into a future regional hub.

**Long Thanh International Airport spans roughly 5,000 hectares and carries an estimated investment of 337,000 billion dong.**
Built to ICAO 4F standards for more than 100 million passengers annually, Phase 1 facilities were completed between 2021 and 2025 and officially inaugurated on December 19, 2025. Some terminals and runways have already begun handling flights, and full commercial operations are set to start in June 2026.

**After completing Phase 1, the Ministry of Construction appointed the Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) on January 14 to lead Phase 2, except for flight-operation technical infrastructure, which the Vietnam Air Traffic Management Corporation will handle.**
ACV must prepare the feasibility study, explore phased investment plans, allocate sufficient funds to ensure Phase 2’s quality and schedule, and safeguard state capital. Throughout planning and execution, ACV will work closely with the Air Traffic Management Corporation to meet regulatory requirements and operational needs.

**Phase 2 will add a third runway and a second passenger terminal, each designed for 25 million passengers per year, alongside supporting infrastructure to raise annual capacity to 50 million passengers and 1.5 million tonnes of cargo.**
These new assets will complement Phase 1 and accommodate projected traffic growth following the airport’s commercial launch.

**In 2025, Tan Son Nhat Airport handled about 42 million passengers—18 million international and 24 million domestic.**
At Long Thanh’s opening, planners expect to transfer 80 percent of those international travelers and 20 percent of domestic travelers, yielding an initial volume of 17–18 million passengers. At that pace, Phase 1 will reach its 25 million-passenger design capacity within two to three years, reinforcing the urgency of Phase 2.

**Originally slated for 2028–2032, Phase 2 moved forward in response to revised GDP growth forecasts from 2026 and unexpectedly strong air-travel demand.**
The government has proposed amending investment policy to the National Assembly Standing Committee to authorize early implementation of the third runway, leveraging Phase 1 construction resources to reduce costs, shorten timelines, and minimize environmental impact.

**In December 2025, ACV formally requested its role as Phase 2 investor, citing its personnel and machinery already engaged in Phase 1 and the strategic benefits of continuous resource deployment.**
ACV stressed that accelerating Phase 2 will align the airport’s capacity with market demand and optimize use of newly completed infrastructure.

**Phase 2’s success hinges on ACV securing adequate capital and coordinating closely with the Vietnam Air Traffic Management Corporation.**
Completing Phase 2 immediately after Phase 1—by 2025–2026—will position Long Thanh International Airport to handle 50 million passengers and 1.5 million tonnes of cargo annually and establish it as a leading aviation hub in Southeast Asia.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Jan. 21, 2026

News
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133

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9

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0

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0

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0

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0

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0

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0

Social
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0

Business
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9

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Amendments to Regulations on Issuance and Reissuance of Mineral Exploitation Permits

Bao Dien Tu | Local Language | News | Jan. 21, 2026 | Regulation

Decree No. 21/2026/ND-CP, effective January 16, 2026, amends and supplements regulations on the issuance and reissuance of mineral exploitation permits under Decree No. 193/2025/ND-CP. It introduces specific conditions for granting permits to exploit group III minerals used as ordinary construction materials for certain projects as defined in the Law on Geology and Minerals.

Organizations and individuals are qualified for mineral exploitation permits if they meet conditions under Article 53 of the Law on Geology and Minerals and additional requirements including lawful rights to use exploration data, financial capability for the investment project, necessary approvals or investment decisions, environmental impact appraisal or permits, and safety assessment for radioactive minerals. For group III mineral exploitation serving specified construction projects, applicants must also provide safety engineering plans, environmental protection measures, and financial guarantees for rehabilitation.

The required dossier for permit application varies by mineral group but generally includes an original permit application, maps and design documents, feasibility study or equivalent, and environmental reports or permits. Permit applications for mineral areas spanning multiple provinces must be submitted to the province with the largest exploitation area, with coordination among affected provinces.

The decree also revises conditions for reissuance of mineral exploitation permits, requiring that applicants apply after permit expiration with remaining reserves, fulfill obligations without legal violations, obtain environmental impact approvals, and secure design approvals for construction adjustments. The authority issuing permits also handles extensions, adjustments, transfers, and mine closures.

Overall, these amendments clarify and tighten procedural and substantive requirements for the issuance and reissuance of mineral exploitation permits to enhance regulatory oversight and ensure compliance with environmental and safety standards.

Quy định cơ sở dữ liệu quốc gia về tiêu chuẩn, đo lường, chất lượng

Regulations on the National Database on Standards, Metrology, and Quality

Bao Dien Tu | Local Language | News | Jan. 21, 2026 | Regulation

The Government of Vietnam has promulgated Decree No. 22/2026/ND-CP to detail the implementation of the Law on Standards and Technical Regulations. The decree includes 7 chapters and 71 articles, providing provisions on organizing and guiding the national database on standards, metrology, and quality. This database is a unified digital platform designed to integrate related data to support state management and provide information to organizations and individuals, as part of the national quality infrastructure.

The decree outlines principles for building, managing, updating, and using the database, emphasizing connection, centralization, unity, and synchronization from central to local levels. It mandates that the database must provide accurate, timely information to meet state management requirements and serve public and business needs while ensuring stable operation, information security, data protection, and connectivity with other national databases. The decree excludes certain state secret products, goods, services, and environments from the database.

The database contains seven main categories of data: national standards (including catalogues and violation lists), technical regulations (national and local, and related violations), National Standards Technical Committees (members and activities), metrology (certified measurement standards, inspectors, organizations, and violations), conformity assessment activities (accredited bodies, declarations of conformity, certifications, and violations), notifications about technical barriers to trade, and information on handling feedback and recommendations related to standards, metrology, and quality.

The technological infrastructure for the database comprises IT technical systems, data sharing and coordination platforms, database and data analysis systems, and software for management, exploitation, and service delivery. The decree also specifies the responsibilities of relevant agencies and organizations for building, operating, and updating the database, aiming to strengthen the management and transparency of national quality infrastructure.

Vietravel Airlines sắp đổi tên sau khi T&ampT tiếp quản

Vietravel Airlines to Change Name After T&T Takes Over

VN Express | Local Language | News | Jan. 21, 2026 | UndeterminedMergers & Acquisitions

Vietravel Airlines is undergoing a comprehensive restructuring of ownership and operations, including a planned renaming scheduled for early Q2 2026. T&T Group became a strategic shareholder at the end of 2024, and by November 2025, Vietravel's Board of Directors approved divesting all contributed capital from the airline to focus on its core travel and tourism businesses. The airline has also terminated its right to use the "Vietravel" brand. No new brand name has been announced yet. Vietravel Airlines aims to expand its fleet to at least 10 aircraft in 2026 and plans to extend its domestic and Northeast Asia international route network.

Currently, Vietravel Airlines operates four narrow-body Airbus aircraft, focusing mainly on domestic routes between Hanoi, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City, and Phu Quoc, with one international route to Bangkok. In early 2026, the airline added a new domestic route from Ho Chi Minh City to Vinh and increased flight frequencies to meet holiday demand. The airline's strategy shifted from leasing to purchasing aircraft after T&T's involvement, with the acquisition of an Airbus A321 in June 2025. The company also relocated its headquarters from Ho Chi Minh City to Hanoi.

There are ongoing market reports that AirAsia is negotiating to acquire shares in Vietravel Airlines. Tony Fernandes, CEO of Capital A (AirAsia's parent company), confirmed active discussions with a Vietnamese partner to expand in Southeast Asia and expressed optimism about the negotiations. AirAsia has previously attempted to enter the Vietnamese domestic market four times unsuccessfully. Additionally, T&T Group and Capital A have collaborated with Quang Tri Provincial authorities to propose investment in an aviation industrial complex and airport urban area in the region.

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