Vietnam

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Surging Prices and Policy Shifts Reshape Vietnam’s Real Estate Market
Jan. 15, 2026 | Firms

Vietnam’s real estate market has experienced significant price surges, policy interventions, and shifting investment patterns across sectors.

**Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính opened the 5th Central Steering Committee session on January 13, 2026 by demanding a clampdown on speculation and inflated prices in commercial housing and apartments, emphasizing that housing must remain accessible as an essential need.**
The Ministry of Construction reported that apartment prices climbed 20–30 percent over the past year, with some areas seeing increases above 40 percent, and adjacent houses and land plots rose substantially as well.

**The Prime Minister directed the Ministry of Finance to study tax measures that discourage speculation and channel investment into productive sectors.**
The ministry had proposed a 20 percent tax on the price difference in real estate transfers but withdrew it, leaving the current 2 percent transfer value tax intact. According to the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers, more than 75 percent of transactions in 2025 involved buyers acquiring second or multiple homes, reflecting investment-driven demand.

**The State Bank of Vietnam must tighten controls on real estate credit and implement risk management policies tied to property lending.**
By the end of Q3 2025, banks’ real estate loans reached about 1.82 million billion đồng—up 35 percent year-on-year—and accounted for roughly 10 percent of total outstanding loans. The State Bank expects credit growth of around 15 percent in 2026, depending on economic conditions.

**The Ministry of Construction will devise mechanisms to supply housing for middle-income groups (earning above 20 million đồng per month) and instruct local authorities to assess demand for social rental housing and units for public officials.**
It plans to expedite procedures for social housing, especially rental projects. Seventeen provinces and cities reported rental demands totaling over 67,100 units, although Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have yet to submit their figures.

**Southern Vietnam’s real estate market saw a surge in mergers and acquisitions in 2025 after nearly three years of stagnation, signaling intense consolidation.**
Domestic developers restructured portfolios to ease financial pressures, and well-capitalized investors bought land with clear legal status. Notable deals included DIC Group’s transfer of four subdivisions in the Dai Phuoc eco-tourism urban area for nearly VND 3 trillion; LDG Group’s sale of the LDG Sky residential project in Thu Duc City; Ngan Hiep Real Estate’s acquisition of over 30 million SEA shares for more than VND 1 trillion to secure a prime plot in District 1; and Son Kim Land’s effective control of the Saigon Broadway project. Foreign investors lost ground to domestic players in major deals, though CapitaLand Tower acquired over 150 hectares in the Vinhomes Green Paradise project in Can Gio for nearly VND 17.5 trillion. Avison Young noted declines in both the number and average value of M&A transactions in 2025 compared with the 2021–2022 boom, with longer negotiations as buyers focused on legal due diligence and risk assessment.

**Most deals took place in Ho Chi Minh City (15 in the central urban area and one in Binh Duong), while satellite cities around Hanoi accounted for eleven transactions and one deal occurred in central Vietnam.**
Avison Young observed that long-term capital shifted toward satellite cities, driven by strong housing demand, decentralization, and rapid infrastructure development, as buyers reposition assets for future growth.

**Apartment prices continued to rise sharply in 2025, especially in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.**
In Q3, the average primary sale price reached about 95 million VND/m² in Hanoi and 91 million VND/m² in Ho Chi Minh City, with many central projects listing between 120 and 150 million VND/m². More than 43 percent of new apartments on the primary market carried prices above 120 million VND/m². The Vietnam Real Estate Market Research Institute found that prices since 2019 have climbed by 96.2 percent in Hanoi, 77.1 percent in Da Nang, and 56.9 percent in Ho Chi Minh City. Many projects reported sharp unit price increases of several hundred million to over one billion VND, despite limited improvements in infrastructure or quality.

**As of January 13, 2026, Deputy Minister of Construction Nguyễn Văn Sinh reported that Vietnam’s real estate market comprised 2,169 commercial housing and urban area projects, 698 social housing projects, and 548 infrastructure projects for land transfers to individuals.**
After a recovery since 2022 produced 580,437 transactions in 2025, housing prices continued to rise by 10–15 percent annually for apartments, townhouses, villas, and land plots, while prices in tourism, commercial, office, and industrial real estate grew at a slower pace.

**Inventory levels for apartments, detached houses, and land plots increased compared with Q3 2025, with apartments and detached houses reaching about 138 percent of that quarter’s stock.**
The Ministry of Construction pointed to a supply focused mainly on mid-to-high-end segments, a lack of affordable housing for industrial workers and low-income groups, project delays due to legal issues, and inefficient use of land and capital as factors driving prices higher.

**Experts including Nguyễn Văn Đính of the Vietnam Real Estate Association cited a persistent mismatch in supply, noting that appropriately priced apartments are almost nonexistent and that a limited rental market intensifies home-ownership demand, further driving up prices.**
They recommend developing rental housing for workers and expanding social and affordable commercial housing to meet broader demand and stabilize the market.

**Dr.**
Nguyễn Sĩ Dũng identified institutional and procedural costs as major barriers that push developers toward high-end projects. He called for reducing these costs, ensuring legal security for public officials, and offering attractive incentives for producing reasonably priced commercial housing, while warning against complex dual-pricing mechanisms.

**The Ministry of Construction will review housing laws and policies for consistency and practicality, streamline investment procedures, enhance administrative reforms, and apply digital transformation to housing and real estate management.**
It will also push localities to implement the National Housing Development Strategy 2021–2030 and align housing development with actual demand to balance supply and prices.

**The 2026 agenda includes advancing a government resolution to develop at least one million social housing units by 2030, establishing a National Housing Fund, continuing demolition of unsafe houses, improving housing data systems through integration of multiple government databases, increasing transparency, strengthening inspection and enforcement of laws, and considering the creation of a state-run Real Estate and Land Use Rights Trading Center to support market stability and development.**







### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**





























































Domain Causal Chain Possible Outcome
Households (House-price-to-income ratio ↑ → Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Precautionary savings gap ↑) Widening precautionary savings gaps cut discretionary spending and dampen consumption growth.
Households (Household debt-service ratio ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Consumer confidence diffusion index ↓ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑) Increased consumption volatility complicates macroeconomic management and undermines stable growth.
Financial System (Credit-to-GDP gap ↑ → Financial-conditions index ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↑ → Shadow-bank default cascades ↑) Heightened crash risk could trigger widespread defaults in shadow banks and amplify financial instability.
Governance & Law (Policy-implementation speed ↓ → Public-investment execution ratio ↓ → Infrastructure-quality index ↓ → Urban productivity premium ↓) Slower policy execution and poorer infrastructure depress urban productivity and competitiveness.
Infrastructure & Urbanization (Construction-permit issuance time ↑ → Housing-affordability index ↓ → Informal-settlement growth rate ↑ → Informal-settlement population share ↑) Delays in permits fuel informal settlements, straining municipal services and exacerbating urban inequality.
Firms (Market concentration trend ↑ → SME loan-rejection rate ↑ → Business-formation rate ↓ → Employment growth in the business sector ↓) Tighter SME lending and lower start-ups slow job creation and hinder inclusive business-sector growth.
Macroeconomics & Growth (Credit impulse (% GDP) ↑ → Asset-price wealth effect ↑ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑ → Output gap (% GDP) ↓) Consumption swings widen the output gap, complicating policy efforts to stabilize growth.
Households (Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Income-volatility (monthly) ↑ → Social-trust composite swing ↓ → Residential protest vandalism rate ↑) Rising housing stress erodes social trust and can spur protest-related vandalism.
Politics (Policy-uncertainty index deviation ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↓ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↓ → Potential GDP growth revision ↓) Heightened policy uncertainty reduces FDI and business investment, prompting downward revisions to potential GDP growth.
Financial System (Asset-price valuation metrics ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↓ → Financial-conditions index ↑ → Credit-availability index (SME loan approval) ↑) Valuation corrections ease crash risk, improving conditions and boosting SME credit availability.




### BOTTOM LINE

- Key recent developments include rapid residential price growth (20–40% in the past year and nearly doubling in Hanoi since 2019), a 35% year-on-year expansion in bank real-estate lending to VND 1.82 million billion, an announced government clampdown on speculation with potential transaction taxes, and a wave of domestic M&A consolidating prime land into fewer, well-capitalized firms.


- Core drivers behind these developments are strong investment-driven demand (more than 75% of 2025 buyers acquiring second or multiple homes), abundant and cheaper credit flowing into property, a persistent mismatch between available supply and affordability (market skewed to mid/high-end products), and legal/administrative frictions that favor high-margin projects over affordable housing.


- A primary causal chain runs from rising prices to expanding mortgage and developer credit, which increases household debt-service burdens and financial-system exposure and therefore raises the probability of loan performance deterioration if credit conditions tighten or prices correct.


- Another causal link runs from policy responses (anti-speculation measures, proposed transfer taxes, tighter lending rules) to short-term transaction slowdown and longer due-diligence cycles, which will likely reduce liquidity and prolong development timelines while potentially cooling speculative price momentum.


- Consolidation in the developer sector is causally connected to earlier financial strain and will raise market concentration, which in turn increases counterparty risk for banks and reduces competition for land and projects, likely elevating barriers to entry for SMEs and constraining employment creation in construction and services.


- Because supply growth remains concentrated in mid-to-high-end segments while demand is strong for affordable and rental housing, the most likely near-term social consequence is growing affordability pressure for workers and first-time buyers, increased precautionary household saving, and weaker non-housing consumption growth.


- With real-estate loans already around 10% of outstanding bank credit and rising, the most plausible financial-system ramification is greater sensitivity of bank asset quality to a property market correction, making targeted macroprudential tightening (LTV caps, borrower stress tests, provisioning) a necessary near-term policy lever to avoid broader credit contraction.


- The government’s consideration of a high tax on price differences and orders to tighten credit will reduce speculative flipping if implemented, but a poorly calibrated or abrupt tax will materially reduce market liquidity, encourage tax arbitrage and informal transactions, and could deter some foreign direct investment into real-estate-related projects.


- Practical policy sequencing that reduces downside risk includes immediate tightening of mortgage underwriting standards and macroprudential tools, paired with accelerated approvals and incentives for social and rental housing, a dedicated funding window for affordable‑housing developers, and legal-process reforms to speed title clearance and reduce transaction costs.


- To stabilize expectations and preserve investment, authorities should prioritize clear, phased communication of new rules, publish exposure data (bank real-estate concentrations, developer leverage), and set predictable timelines for any transfer‑tax design so investors can price risk rather than abruptly withdraw liquidity.


- Market monitoring should focus on three leading indicators that will signal systemic stress: quarterly growth in real-estate lending and LTV averages, secondary-market transaction volumes and days-on-market, and non-performing loan flows in banks and shadow-lenders exposed to property; these indicators should trigger pre-defined supervisory actions.


- Firms and investors should prepare for a longer negotiation and due-diligence cycle, prioritize assets with clear legal title and infrastructure connectivity, and shift part of capital allocation toward rental, affordable, and satellite-city projects where demographic and infrastructure trends point to more sustainable demand growth.
Long Thanh International Airport Development Accelerates to Meet Surging Aviation Demand in Vietnam
Jan. 15, 2026 | Infrastructure & Urbanization

Vietnam is expanding its aviation sector by developing Long Thanh International Airport into a future regional hub.

**Long Thanh International Airport spans roughly 5,000 hectares and carries an estimated investment of 337,000 billion dong.**
Built to ICAO 4F standards for more than 100 million passengers annually, Phase 1 facilities were completed between 2021 and 2025 and officially inaugurated on December 19, 2025. Some terminals and runways have already begun handling flights, and full commercial operations are set to start in June 2026.

**After completing Phase 1, the Ministry of Construction appointed the Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) on January 14 to lead Phase 2, except for flight-operation technical infrastructure, which the Vietnam Air Traffic Management Corporation will handle.**
ACV must prepare the feasibility study, explore phased investment plans, allocate sufficient funds to ensure Phase 2’s quality and schedule, and safeguard state capital. Throughout planning and execution, ACV will work closely with the Air Traffic Management Corporation to meet regulatory requirements and operational needs.

**Phase 2 will add a third runway and a second passenger terminal, each designed for 25 million passengers per year, alongside supporting infrastructure to raise annual capacity to 50 million passengers and 1.5 million tonnes of cargo.**
These new assets will complement Phase 1 and accommodate projected traffic growth following the airport’s commercial launch.

**In 2025, Tan Son Nhat Airport handled about 42 million passengers—18 million international and 24 million domestic.**
At Long Thanh’s opening, planners expect to transfer 80 percent of those international travelers and 20 percent of domestic travelers, yielding an initial volume of 17–18 million passengers. At that pace, Phase 1 will reach its 25 million-passenger design capacity within two to three years, reinforcing the urgency of Phase 2.

**Originally slated for 2028–2032, Phase 2 moved forward in response to revised GDP growth forecasts from 2026 and unexpectedly strong air-travel demand.**
The government has proposed amending investment policy to the National Assembly Standing Committee to authorize early implementation of the third runway, leveraging Phase 1 construction resources to reduce costs, shorten timelines, and minimize environmental impact.

**In December 2025, ACV formally requested its role as Phase 2 investor, citing its personnel and machinery already engaged in Phase 1 and the strategic benefits of continuous resource deployment.**
ACV stressed that accelerating Phase 2 will align the airport’s capacity with market demand and optimize use of newly completed infrastructure.

**Phase 2’s success hinges on ACV securing adequate capital and coordinating closely with the Vietnam Air Traffic Management Corporation.**
Completing Phase 2 immediately after Phase 1—by 2025–2026—will position Long Thanh International Airport to handle 50 million passengers and 1.5 million tonnes of cargo annually and establish it as a leading aviation hub in Southeast Asia.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Jan. 19, 2026


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1
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0

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0

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2

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Xây hồ điều hòa gần 600 tỷ đồng để giải quyết ngập úng ở Nha Trang

Constructing a nearly 600 billion VND regulating lake to resolve flooding in Nha Trang

Dantri | Local Language | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | Extreme Weather Events

On January 17, the People's Committee of Khánh Hòa province approved a nearly 600 billion VND investment in a regulating lake project for Tây Nha Trang ward in Nha Trang city. The project aims to construct multifunctional infrastructure that fundamentally resolves flooding in the urban area while creating a green, modern public space to improve quality of life and promote sustainable development.

The project scope includes building a regulating lake, a lakeside pedestrian walkway with tree planting, a water channel along the railway into the lake, and a drainage channel from the lake to the Cái River. The construction is scheduled to take place from 2025 to 2027.

In addition, a separate project proposal with an estimated investment of nearly 2,000 billion VND has been submitted to build a road combined with a flood drainage canal in Tây Nha Trang and surrounding areas. This project aims to enhance drainage capacity and reduce flood risks in the locality.

These projects come in response to the historic rain and floods in mid-November 2025, which caused 22 deaths, damaged over 1,000 houses, and destroyed many works and crops. The total damage from the disaster is estimated at more than 5,000 billion VND, with Tây Nha Trang ward among the hardest-hit areas.

Vietnam accelerates rare earth strategy to strengthen strategic autonomy

Vietnam Net - E | English | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

On January 17, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired a high-level cabinet meeting where the government reviewed several key agendas, notably the national rare earth strategy. Emphasizing the importance of rare earth development as a foundation for national self-reliance, the Prime Minister outlined five main policy directions and stressed strengthened state management. Vietnam, home to some of the world's largest rare earth reserves, plans to transition from raw extraction to advanced processing and application, focusing on institutional reform, deep processing technologies, and high-quality value chains.

The strategy encourages public-private partnerships, backed by financial incentives aimed at attracting domestic and foreign investments. Government agencies are tasked with facilitating technology transfer and adopting sustainable extraction and processing methods. Additionally, digital transformation will be utilized to enhance governance, transparency, and resource tracing throughout the rare earth value chain. Collaboration between central and local governments, scientific institutions, and the private sector is set to be a cornerstone, with an emphasis on smart governance and environmental protection to balance economic and ecological priorities.

The meeting also addressed challenges in transitional build-transfer (BT) infrastructure projects initiated before regulatory updates. The Prime Minister directed the Ministry of Finance and related bodies to expedite drafting a government resolution to resolve legal issues promptly. For projects already audited, the resolution will guide compliance and corrections, while those pending oversight will be managed by provincial authorities, emphasizing local accountability. The resolution aims to respect legal standards, fairness, and risk balance among the state, investors, and the public.

Vietnam’s accelerated rare earth strategy arises amid increasing global demand for rare earths used in electric vehicles, smartphones, and defense technologies, with supply concentrated in few countries. By advancing processing capabilities and technology, Vietnam aims to add strategic value to its rare earth resources, enhancing its role in the green economy, digital transformation, and global tech supply chains, thereby reinforcing its economic sovereignty.

Không lập hóa đơn bán hàng bị phạt tới 80 triệu đồng: Chi tiết mức xử phạt

Failure to issue sales invoices can result in fines up to 80 million VND: Detailed penalties

Dantri | Local Language | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | Regulation

From January 16, 2026, new administrative sanctions on taxation and invoice violations under Decree 310/2025, amending Decree 125/2020, have come into effect. These regulations aim to tighten tax administration discipline and address enforcement shortcomings. A key change is that if a taxpayer misdeclares multiple items on the same tax return, only one administrative violation is penalized—specifically, the item with the largest tax misdeclaration. When multiple misdeclarations do not affect the tax amount, a single penalty corresponding to the number of erroneous invoices applies, preventing overlapping fines and promoting fairness.

Organizations, enterprises, business households, individual businesspeople, and cooperatives are mandated to issue invoices during sales transactions. The new decree revises fines related to invoice violations, distinguishing between issuing invoices late and not issuing invoices at all, with penalties based on the number of violating invoices. Failure to issue invoices for 50 or more goods or services triggers fines from 60 to 80 million VND, while lower numbers of invoices correspond to smaller fines, starting at 1–2 million VND for a single invoice. Issuing invoices late incurs fines from 500,000 VND up to 70 million VND, compared to previous fines of 4–8 million VND for late issuance and 10–20 million VND for non-issuance.

Violations discovered after January 16 will be subject to the new penalty framework. For violations occurring before that date but discovered later, the more lenient regulation will apply. Additionally, fines for organizations are double those for individuals, following existing sanctioning principles. These revisions are intended to enhance compliance with tax and invoice regulations and foster a fairer, more transparent business environment.

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