China

Yicai Global | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

The ASEAN+3 region, comprising the 10 ASEAN members along with China, Japan, and South Korea, is projected to experience stronger economic growth in 2026 than previously forecasted. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) updated its outlook, predicting a 4 percent expansion in 2026 following 4.3 percent growth in 2025, marking a 0.2 percentage point upward revision for both years. China’s growth forecast was similarly raised to 4.6 percent in 2026 from the earlier estimate, supported by macroeconomic policies, resilient exports, and investment in high-tech manufacturing.

The region’s economic resilience is attributed to strong technology demand and robust foreign direct investment inflows into sectors such as advanced electronics, electric vehicles, and digital services. Semiconductor exports in the region grew by 21.7 percent in the second half of 2025, driven by demand related to artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. The global purchasing managers’ index for electronics new orders showed improvement in December 2025, indicating continued export growth. Regional equity markets have also gained since October 2025, boosted by momentum in artificial intelligence despite concerns about US tariff policies.

Despite more balanced risks overall, AMRO identified ongoing uncertainties and downside risks, particularly linked to unpredictable US trade policies and potential expansions of protectionist measures. A significant slowdown in technology demand, possibly caused by market corrections or delays in AI adoption, could adversely affect regional exports, given the sector's cross-border ties. AMRO emphasized the importance of policy readiness to manage shocks in the short term, while encouraging diversification of growth drivers and deeper regional economic integration to enhance long-term resilience.

社交电商步入合规深水区：应对传销与税务风险的实战攻略

AnJie Broad Law Firm | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 23, 2026 | Regulation

Social e-commerce in China has grown rapidly over the past decade, driven by models based on social networks and user trust, such as Pinduoduo's group-buying and Yunji’s membership platforms. This growth has created dynamic business forms but has also raised significant compliance concerns, particularly around pyramid selling and tax risks. In response, the State Council has prioritized revising regulations on pyramid selling and direct selling in 2025, signaling intensified enforcement and clearer regulatory standards. Concurrently, new tax regulations have redefined platform responsibilities, transitioning from voluntary assistance to statutory agency roles for tax reporting and collection.

The social e-commerce ecosystem primarily involves platform enterprises, individual promoters, and consumers, with some models including institutional service providers managing promoters. While multi-level marketing elements raise suspicions of pyramid selling, criminal law sets a high threshold for such liability, generally exempting compliant platforms that base compensation on actual sales without coercion or deception. However, administrative regulations have broader criteria and have become a key risk area, with penalties including hefty fines, operational suspensions, and potential license revocation. Legal debates focus on how to define hierarchical layers in the distribution chain and the compliance value of structuring intermediate tiers as independent legal entities, which is not a guaranteed safeguard.

Since 2025, enhanced tax regulations mandate internet platforms to act as statutory agents for tax collection related to flexible-employment income, requiring robust compliance systems. Individual promoters must provide truthful identity and income declarations and choose between platform agency tax declaration or self-declaration, while institutional service providers are required to maintain complete and transparent tax and accounting records to avoid risks.

To navigate the tightening regulatory environment, social e-commerce entities must adopt a comprehensive compliance framework. This includes defining platform roles strictly as compliant e-commerce operators, designing profit models aligned with legal standards for platforms, suppliers, promoters, and service providers, and implementing detailed internal controls over membership rules, compensation, and hierarchical structures. Firms are urged to standardize external marketing and user compliance management, coordinate legal and fiscal processes, and embed compliance into ongoing governance rather than one-off projects.

The industry faces a “double strengthening” regulatory approach with ongoing revision of anti-pyramid selling laws and the introduction of data-driven tax supervision systems. Success in this environment depends on firms’ ability to align business models with legal requirements, embrace transparent operations, actively engage with regulators, and promote self-discipline within the sector. The shift away from uncontrolled growth toward compliance-focused development is positioned not as a restriction but as an opportunity to restore social e-commerce to its core value of efficient consumer empowerment and sustainable market growth.

突发！美国大举增兵！

STCN | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated significantly, prompting a substantial U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. Over a dozen F-15E “Strike Eagle” fighters and a C-17 transport aircraft departed from the United Kingdom to the region on January 18. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has also transited the Strait of Malacca and is en route to the Middle East. Additional deployment includes F-16 and A-10 attack aircraft, along with plans to increase missile defense systems to protect U.S. bases and Israel.

Iran has issued strong warnings in response to the U.S. military movements. Iranian Armed Forces spokesman Shekarchi warned that any attack targeting Supreme Leader Khamenei would provoke “devastating retaliation.” Foreign Minister Araqchi reiterated that Iran is prepared for a resolute response to any attacks but expressed willingness for fair negotiations based on mutual respect. Iranian leadership emphasized that recent protests turning violent were influenced by foreign and domestic terrorists, justifying measures like internet restrictions.

Senior Iranian officials, including advisor Velayati, claimed recent conspiracies by the U.S. and Israel to destabilize Iran were thwarted and announced continued strong resistance. Velayati also stressed regional implications if unrest spreads, urging accountability for the U.S. President Trump has repeatedly threatened military action and called for regime change, while officials acknowledge that military options remain under consideration amid rising uncertainty. Iranian leaders characterized U.S. threats as psychological warfare but maintained readiness to respond forcefully to any aggression.