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China
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
China Steps Up Mediation Efforts Between Iran and Israel Amid Rising Regional Tensions
June 16, 2025 | Geopolitics & DefenseChina has intensified its diplomatic efforts to mediate between Iran and Israel amid escalating Middle East tensions.
On June 14, 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held separate phone calls with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi and Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar as part of Beijing’s broader push to reduce the risk of a wider regional conflict.
**In his conversation with Araghchi, Wang Yi addressed a recent Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities that Iranian officials said caused military and civilian casualties.**
Araghchi described the attack as a serious violation of international law capable of dragging the region into full-scale war, and he urged the international community to demand an end to Israel’s military operations. Wang Yi condemned Israel’s actions as infringements on Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, warned that such strikes undermine the UN Charter’s purposes and set a dangerous precedent, and called on influential countries to help restore regional peace. He expressed China’s readiness to work with all parties to defuse tensions, and both ministers reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to safeguarding Chinese institutions and personnel in Iran.
**During the discussion with Saar, Wang Yi reiterated that international disputes should not be resolved through force or sanctions, and he characterized Israel’s military actions against Iran as violations of international law that could derail diplomatic efforts on the nuclear issue.**
He emphasized the importance of both Israel and Iran to regional stability, called for immediate measures to prevent further escalation, and advocated a return to dialogue. Saar affirmed Israel’s commitment to protecting Chinese personnel and institutions, and Wang Yi maintained that a peaceful resolution to the nuclear question remained achievable under the principle of common security.
**Across both conversations, Wang Yi emphasized China’s willingness to maintain communication channels with Iran, Israel, and other relevant parties to play a constructive role in de-escalating tensions.**
He stressed the critical and sensitive nature of the situation and urged cooperation to restore peace and stability in the region while ensuring the safety of Chinese interests.
Deepening China-Africa Economic Engagement Across Trade, Manufacturing, and Technology
June 16, 2025 | Geopolitics & DefenseChina and Africa have strengthened their economic and trade cooperation across transportation, manufacturing, agriculture and emerging technology sectors.
**Passenger and cargo links now tie Chinese and African markets more closely.**
Since launching the Guangzhou–Changsha–Nairobi air route in 2019, carriers have transported over 227,000 passengers, and China Southern Airlines plans further direct services to meet growing demand. In parallel, Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical Co.’s deputy general manager, Ma Bijun, described rising market needs for medical products in East Africa and outlined plans to build a new pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in Tanzania, underlining deeper logistics integration and regional production investment.
**Agricultural trade volumes have surged, especially in coffee and fresh produce.**
Kenyan coffee beans now reach Changsha in as little as three days and flow into outlets like the African Coffee Trade Center, while improved digital platforms linking African growers to Chinese e-commerce channels have driven significant year-on-year sales growth. In the first five months of 2025, China imported 15.83 billion yuan in agricultural goods from Africa, supported by zero-tariff treatment for least-developed African nations.
**Alongside these developments, China’s exports of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and related components to African markets have climbed sharply.**
Senegalese entrepreneur Tirera Sourakhata reports strong uptake in Dakar, driven by lower operating costs and local job creation. Meanwhile, Chinese e-commerce models are reshaping retail across the continent: platforms such as Kilimall, with over 10 million registered users, and influencers like Nancy Kariuki leverage livestreaming to engage customers and expand market access for a broader range of Chinese exporters.
**Most recently, the 4th China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha convened more than 4,700 companies across agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure and technology, alongside over 30 thematic forums on topics from industrial chain collaboration to youth entrepreneurship.**
Exhibitors showcased Kenyan roses and avocados, Comorian essential oils and specialty coffees from Ethiopia. During the event, China Customs signed import access protocols for a range of African agricultural products, and businesses concluded multiple agreements to advance high-tech and new energy cooperation. Foreign Minister Wang Yi and other officials reaffirmed commitments to deepen economic partnerships, noting that China-Africa trade reached a record 2.1 trillion yuan in 2024 and rose 12.4 percent in the first five months of 2025.
### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Health | (Pharmaceutical-regulation & pricing regime reform ↑ → Regulatory-approval lead time (days) ↓ → Pharmaceutical supply-shortage incidents ↓ → Morbidity-adjusted lifespan gap ↓) | Streamlined approvals speed market entry of essential medicines, reducing shortages and narrowing lifespan gaps. |
| Food & Water | (Cold-chain infrastructure coverage ↑ → Refrigerated container failure rate ↓ → Post-harvest loss rate ↓ → Household food-insecurity prevalence ↓) | Enhanced cold-chain reliability cuts post-harvest losses, improving household food security. |
| Transportation & Logistics | (Trade-facilitation implementation gap ↓ → Door-to-door export lead time ↓ → Cold-chain penetration rate ↑ → Agricultural GDP growth ↑) | Faster export delivery and expanded cold chains boost perishable exports and uplift agricultural GDP. |
| Competitiveness | (Customs-and-border clearance digitisation ↑ → Average customs-clearance time ↓ → Customs compliance cost per shipment ↓ → Global export-market share shift ↑) | Digitised customs processes lower clearance times and costs, increasing Africa’s share of global exports. |
| Competitiveness | (Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Export sophistication (EXPY) delta ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑) | Preferential access and higher FDI raise export sophistication and expand high-value-added export shares. |
| Technology & Innovation | (High-speed broadband household penetration ↑ → SME digital-tool adoption index ↑ → Domestic AI compute-capacity (petaflop-days) ↑ → High-tech export volume surprise ↑) | Broader broadband adoption drives SME digitisation and AI capacity growth, leading to stronger high-tech export performance. |
| Environment | (Fuel-efficient & zero-emission vehicle incentives ↑ → GHG intensity of freight (g CO₂e/tonne-km) ↓ → Transport-sector CO₂ emissions (Mt) ↓ → Air-quality exceedance days ↓) | Stronger EV incentives lower freight emissions, reducing CO₂ output and urban air-quality exceedance days. |
| Energy & Natural Resources | (Electric-grid transmission capacity & interconnection ↑ → Grid blackout incident hours ↓ → Industrial feedstock shortage declarations ↓ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Expanded grid capacity cuts blackouts and feedstock shortages, supporting upward revisions to GDP growth forecasts. |
| Firms | (Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Inventory days on hand ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑ → Labour productivity growth (non-farm) ↑) | Agile supply-chain restructuring reduces inventories and lifts manufacturing capacity utilisation, driving non-farm labour productivity gains. |
### BOTTOM LINE
- The establishment of a new Hunan Er-Kang pharmaceutical plant in Tanzania will drive host governments to streamline regulatory approval and pricing processes, slashing lead times for essential medicines and reducing supply shortfalls, which in turn will narrow morbidity-adjusted lifespan gaps and elevate public health resilience across East Africa.
- The rapid growth in African agricultural exports—illustrated by Kenyan coffee reaching Changsha in three days and 15.83 billion yuan of agri-imports in early 2025—will spur expansion of refrigerated logistics networks, cut post-harvest losses, and bolster household food availability, thereby strengthening rural livelihoods and lowering food-insecurity rates.
- Zero-tariff access for least-developed African nations and streamlined customs protocols from the China-Africa Expo will accelerate door-to-door export times, encourage wider cold-chain adoption, and lift agricultural GDP through higher volumes and greater value in perishable exports.
- The digitisation of customs and border clearance, coupled with Chinese e-commerce platforms like Kilimall and livestreaming by influencers such as Nancy Kariuki, will reduce clearance delays and compliance costs, enhancing the price competitiveness of African exports and driving a shift in global market share toward specialty coffee, fresh produce, and other agro-products.
- Record-high bilateral trade and new preferential access arrangements will attract increased FDI into manufacturing and high-tech ventures—evidenced by planned pharmaceutical and NEV investments—raising export sophistication and expanding the share of high-value-added goods in Africa’s trade portfolio.
- The proliferation of broadband-enabled e-commerce and livestreaming will boost SME digital-tool adoption and drive demand for domestic AI compute capacity, laying the groundwork for unexpected growth in high-tech exports and fostering an innovation ecosystem among small and medium enterprises.
- Surge in Chinese new energy vehicle exports and supportive local incentives will accelerate uptake of electric buses, taxis, and freight fleets, lowering greenhouse-gas intensity per tonne-kilometre, reducing urban CO₂ emissions, and improving air quality in major African cities.
- Infrastructure upgrades in power transmission and interconnection spurred by high-tech and manufacturing projects will cut blackout hours, diminish industrial feedstock shortages, and support upward revisions in potential GDP growth forecasts for host economies.
- Enhanced passenger and cargo air links between China and Africa, together with deeper logistics integration, will enable manufacturers to shift toward just-in-time supply chains, reduce inventory days on hand, boost factory capacity utilisation, and drive non-farm labour productivity and wage growth in the manufacturing sector.
Monitored Intelligence for China - June 16, 2025
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Trump, Xi hold long-awaited phone call on US-China trade war
Hong Kong Free Press | English | News | June 16, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held a significant phone call on June 13, 2025, aimed at addressing tensions in the ongoing trade war and discussing cooperation on rare earth supplies. Trump characterized the conversation as having concluded very positively, with both leaders agreeing to meet in person. However, the Chinese readout was more cautious, highlighting a need for improved relations. This call was the first public communication between the two since Trump's return to office in January.
During the 90-minute call, Trump emphasized the importance of resolving trade issues and noted that a high-level US trade team would soon engage with Chinese officials. The dialogue focused primarily on trade matters, particularly rare earth minerals vital for technology, without touching upon other geopolitical issues such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Relations have soured since Trump implemented substantial tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to escalating penalties from both sides.
In a more tempered response, Xi stressed that US-China relations require careful navigation to avoid conflicts, especially regarding Taiwan. Xi's remarks indicated the importance of managing tensions related to Taiwanese sovereignty while inviting Trump and the First Lady to visit China. The call came after a prior agreement in Geneva to reduce tariffs, which both sides blamed the other for undermining, with accusations of violations surfacing from Trump and Chinese officials.
China criticizes U.S. tariff narrative as "one-sided, misleading"
Xinhua | English | News | June 16, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
China has criticized the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" policy as being "one-sided, misleading," and based on erroneous logic. During a meeting at the WTO, the Chinese delegation urged the U.S. to adhere to WTO rules and work to maintain stability in the global trading system. They emphasized that the U.S. narrative neglects the importance of services trade, even though the U.S. has enjoyed long-term trade surpluses in this area, amounting to nearly 300 billion U.S. dollars in 2024.
The Chinese delegation called for an end to the U.S. double standards regarding WTO rules, asserting that benefits should be mutual, especially for developing nations. They highlighted that consensus and negotiations between China and the U.S. have been effective in easing tensions but must align with WTO principles. The delegation also emphasized the need for trade disputes to be resolved through multilateral cooperation rather than unilateral actions.
Furthermore, China advocated for accelerating WTO reforms to fortify a stable and predictable multilateral trading system. This stance garnered support from various WTO members, including developed nations such as the EU and Canada, as well as developing nations like Brazil and Pakistan. These members acknowledged the significance of services in shaping the future of global trade and the importance of collaboration to foster healthy and stable trade growth.
李在明再提恢复韩朝对话合作 强调“和平就是经济”
Lee Jae-myung again proposed resuming inter-Korean dialogue and cooperation, emphasizing that "peace is economy"
Beijing News | Local Language | News | June 16, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
On June 15, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung published an article marking the 25th anniversary of the "North-South Joint Declaration," advocating for the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue and cooperation. He emphasized the need to cease hostile actions and highlighted the significance of the 2000 inter-Korean summit, which initiated a new era of reconciliation and cooperation on the Korean Peninsula, where peace is intertwined with economic stability.
Lee Jae-myung warned that destabilizing the foundation of peace poses risks not only to the economy and security but also to the daily lives of citizens. He advocated for transforming the "risks of the Korean Peninsula" into advantages for mutual prosperity. The South Korean government plans to restore inter-Korean channels of dialogue and crisis management systems, aiming to foster a new era of peaceful coexistence.
Under Lee's administration, there have been efforts to ease tensions, including the recent instruction to halt loudspeaker broadcasts into North Korea, aimed at rebuilding trust. This move comes a year after the resumption of those broadcasts and signals a potential warming in relations between the two Koreas, reminiscent of previous progressive administrations in South Korea that engaged more actively with the North.
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