Intelligence for Better Decision Making

China's shipbuilding industry growth in H1
July 18, 2024 | Indirect Indicator

- China's shipbuilding industry experienced an 18.4% increase in shipbuilding completions during the first half of the year, with a total of 25.02 million deadweight tonnes.

- New shipbuilding orders in China surged by 43.9% year-on-year, reaching 54.22 million DWT.

- The shipbuilding order book in China by the end of June showed a substantial increase of 38.6% from the previous year, totaling 171.55 million DWT.

- China's shipbuilding market accounts for significant shares globally: 55% of completions, 74.7% of new orders, and 58.9% of the order book.

- Despite global economic challenges, the Chinese shipbuilding industry shows resilience with a recovery trend in maritime trade.

- The New Ship Price Index in China hit its highest level since September 2008.

- Large-scale Chinese shipbuilding enterprises reported a 31.5% increase in business income year-on-year in the first quarter of the year.

- Shanghai's shipbuilders, part of China State Shipbuilding Corp, delivered 38 vessels and received 65 new orders in the first half of the year, with over 90% being medium- to high-end vessels.

- Noteworthy shipbuilding achievements include the world's largest very large gas carrier and the first fifth-generation 174,000-cubic-meter LNG carrier.

- Shanghai's shipbuilders had over 60% of new orders for specialized gas ships, with Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding currently working on 18 LNG vessels.

- Construction efficiency and quality improvements were noted in the construction of China's second domestically-produced large cruise ship.

- Shanghai's shipbuilding industry operates at full capacity, managing the simultaneous construction of nearly 80 civil ships.

IMF's forecast of China's economic growth in 2024
July 18, 2024 | Indirect Indicator

- IMF has raised China's 2024 GDP growth forecast to 5%, attributing this to a rebound in private consumption and strong exports in the first quarter.

- The global economic growth forecast remains steady at 3.2% for the year, with significant contributions from emerging Asian economies, especially China and India.

- IMF's updated World Economic Outlook report highlights risks including persistently high inflation in major economies and potential prolonged high interest rates.

- IMF revised economic growth forecasts for emerging markets and developing economies up to 4.3% for this year, amid ongoing global economic challenges.

- Concerns over weak government balance sheets, particularly in the United States, are emphasized, with vulnerabilities to new economic shocks noted.

- India’s growth forecast has been elevated to 7% due to improved outlooks in private consumption, especially in rural areas.

- Growth forecasts for the United States and Japan for 2024 have been revised downward due to slower-than-expected growth.

- The IMF cautions about rising inflation risks and the potential for elevated interest rates due to trade tensions and policy uncertainties.

- The IMF warns of the potential costs of a resurgence in tariffs and trade-restrictive measures, which could negatively impact global economic conditions and trigger spillover effects.

- The global economic report by the IMF for 2025 suggests a slight improvement in global economic growth to 3.3%, with forecasts for emerging markets staying consistent at 4.3%.

- Reports from both the IMF and the World Bank signal positive trends in China’s economy following its policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate sector and proactive fiscal initiatives.

Monitored Intelligence for China - Jan. 25, 2024









Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.

Risk Categories Reported on Today

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We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.

Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.

Operations Categories Reported on Today

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Philippines says reached deal with China to avoid disputed shoal clashes

Al Jazeera | English | News | July 23, 2024 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

China and the Philippines have reached a deal to alleviate tensions over the contested Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. The agreement, negotiated by diplomats in Manila, establishes provisional terms for replenishing Filipino troops on the shoal, which both nations claim and where prior confrontations have occurred. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs emphasized the importance of dialogue and de-escalation. The shoal, located approximately 200km from the Philippines and over 1,000km from China's Hainan island, has seen significant clashes, notably a severe incident on June 17 where Chinese forces rammed and boarded Philippine navy boats to prevent supply transfers, resulting in injuries and the seizure of military equipment. Both countries accused each other of violating sovereign rights over the shoal. The United States and its allies condemned China's actions, affirming the need for freedom of navigation in the area, which is a critical trade route with potential natural resource deposits. The ongoing territorial disputes in the region also involve other countries, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan.

Chinese vice premier urges all-out rescue efforts after flash floods in southwest China

Xinhua | English | News | July 23, 2024 | Extreme Weather Events

Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing urged comprehensive rescue efforts following flash floods in Sichuan Province that left over 30 people missing. During a visit to the affected Xinhua village in Hanyuan County, Zhang inspected local facilities and chaired a meeting focused on immediate search and rescue operations. He emphasized the importance of deploying professional teams, preventing secondary disasters such as mudslides, and allocating relief funds and resources effectively. Additionally, Zhang highlighted the need for improved medical services and a swift return to normal life for survivors, advising local authorities to enhance responses to future rainfall and flooding.

Chinese FM spokesperson's remarks on China reaching provisional arrangement with Philippines on managing situation at Ren'ai Jiao

Xinhua | English | News | July 23, 2024 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

On July 22, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson announced that China reached a provisional arrangement with the Philippines regarding the management of the situation at Ren'ai Jiao. The spokesperson emphasized China's sovereignty over Ren'ai Jiao and the Nansha Qundao, arguing that the Philippines has violated this sovereignty by keeping a grounded warship there for decades. China demands the Philippines remove the warship to restore Ren'ai Jiao's status. If the Philippines needs to send humanitarian supplies to the personnel on the warship, it must notify China in advance, which will monitor the resupply. However, if the Philippines attempts to send large construction materials for a permanent outpost, China will strongly oppose it. The recent consultations between China and the Philippines led to an agreement on managing differences and working toward deescalation in the South China Sea.

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