Try the Daily Briefing
Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.
Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
---|---|---|
Financial System | (Financial-market openness ↑ → Cross-border portfolio flows ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned greenfield project count ↑) | China will see a measurable rise in the number and value of foreign-owned greenfield manufacturing and service projects. |
Competitiveness | (Regulatory-quality & red-tape index ↑ → Regulatory-approval lead time (days) ↓ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned greenfield project count ↑) | Faster, more transparent approvals will drive a surge in foreign greenfield investments, especially in sectors previously hindered by red tape. |
Competitiveness | (Trade-facilitation implementation gap ↓ → Customs compliance cost per shipment ↓ → Export order book ↑ → Export market-share of domestic firms ↑) | Reduced trade costs and improved logistics will boost export orders, raising domestic firms’ share in global markets. |
Technology & Innovation | (Innovation-ecosystem robustness ↑ → University tech-transfer licence revenue ↑ → Patent-to-product conversion rate ↑ → High-tech export volume surprise ↑) | Stronger tech transfer will increase patent commercialization, leading to unexpected jumps in high-tech export volumes. |
Macroeconomics & Growth | (Market-size and demand potential ↑ → Business-confidence surveys ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Higher business confidence will spur private fixed investment, prompting upward revisions to potential GDP growth forecasts. |
Competitiveness | (Digital-services export restrictiveness index ↓ → Technology FDI inflow ↑ → Venture-capital deal flow growth ↑ → Unicorn density ↑) | Eased digital-export rules will attract tech FDI and boost venture-capital activity, increasing the density of unicorn startups. |
Competitiveness | (Intangible-asset investment ratio ↑ → Digital & knowledge-intensive industry share of GDP ↑ → Total-factor productivity growth from tech ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑) | Rising intangible investment and tech-driven productivity growth will shift exports toward higher-value-added goods and services. |
Households | (Market-size and demand potential ↑ → Consumer-confidence diffusion index ↑ → Household consumption growth contribution to GDP ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | Stronger consumer confidence will lift household spending, driving a direct boost to real GDP growth. |
Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
---|---|---|
Governance & Law | (Emergency-powers statute checks ↓ → Executive-decree issuance frequency ↑ → Policy-uncertainty index deviation ↑ → Investment rate (% GDP) ↓) | Reduced oversight and frequent executive decrees raise policy uncertainty and depress the national investment-to-GDP ratio. |
Societal Resilience | (Disaster-risk-reduction spending share ↑ → Infrastructure-resilience score ↑ → Flood-damage cost (% GDP) ↓ → GDP per-capita & convergence speed ↑) | Stronger flood defenses cut damage costs and accelerate per-capita GDP growth and convergence toward wealthier regions. |
Societal Resilience | (Critical-infrastructure redundancy ratio ↑ → Essential-service outage frequency ↓ → Post-disaster service-restoration time ↓ → Crisis-compliance behaviour ↑) | Enhanced redundancy shortens outages and recovery times, boosting community compliance with emergency directives. |
Societal Resilience | (Public-space & community-centre spending ↑ → Community-volunteer participation rate ↑ → Social-trust index ↑ → Volunteerism rate trend ↑) | Investments in public spaces increase volunteer participation and social trust, driving sustained growth in volunteerism. |
Societal Resilience | (Social-safety-net adequacy ↑ → Safety-net utilisation surge ↓ → Crisis-induced poverty delta ↓ → Well-being bounce-back score ↑) | A more robust safety net limits poverty spikes during crises and speeds households’ well-being recovery. |
Health | (Emergency-preparedness & stockpile strategy ↑ → Average emergency-room wait time ↓ → ICU capacity breach duration ↓ → All-cause mortality deviation ↓) | Improved preparedness and stockpiles shorten ER waits and ICU strain, reducing excess all-cause mortality. |
Geopolitics & Defense | (Civil-defense & societal-resilience funding ↑ → Forward-deployed troop surge ↓ → Displacement absorption capacity ↑ → Forced displacement flow ↓) | Stronger civil-defense funding cuts military deployments and lowers forced displacement flows. |
Infrastructure & Urbanization | (Disaster-resilient infrastructure standards ↑ → Utility service interruption frequency ↓ → Infrastructure-resilience score ↑ → Urban productivity premium ↑) | Stricter infrastructure standards reduce service interruptions and enhance resilience, boosting the urban productivity premium. |
Transportation & Logistics | (Disaster-resilient transport design codes ↑ → Supply-chain disruption days per year ↓ → Logistics cost-to-sales ratio shift ↓ → Export market-share of domestic firms ↑) | Flood-proof transport codes shrink disruption days and logistics costs, enabling domestic firms to gain export market share. |
Transportation & Logistics | (National truck-driver availability ratio ↑ → Truck turn-round time at distribution centres ↓ → Door-to-door export lead time (days) ↓ → Export market-share of domestic firms ↑) | Greater truck-driver availability speeds distribution and export lead times, helping domestic exporters recover market share. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
PetroChina’s Earnings Drop for First Time in Five Years After Prices and Sales Fall
Yicai Global | English | News | Aug. 29, 2025 | UndeterminedOperating Results
PetroChina reported a 5.4 percent decline in net profit to CNY84 billion (USD11.7 billion) for the first half of 2025, marking its first earnings drop in five years. Revenue also fell 6.7 percent to CNY1.45 trillion (USD202.7 billion) due to a slump in crude oil and fuel prices and weaker sales of key products such as polypropylene, gasoline, and diesel. The average price of six major products, including kerosene, crude oil, diesel, and gas, declined, with crude oil prices falling 12.3 percent to CNY3,690 (USD515) per ton and diesel prices dropping 9.4 percent to CNY6,213 (USD870) per ton. PetroChina’s shares decreased by 1.6 percent in Shanghai and 0.5 percent in Hong Kong following the earnings report.
Looking ahead, PetroChina anticipates continued international crude oil oversupply in the second half of 2025, which is expected to keep global oil prices pressured. The Chinese refined oil market will face ongoing competition from alternative energy sources, although natural gas demand is projected to recover rapidly. In response, PetroChina plans to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of its traditional businesses while strategically expanding into new energy and new materials sectors. The company also intends to develop its vehicle charging and battery-swapping services further and enhance coordination across its business lines.
In a related move, PetroChina’s subsidiary PetroChina Taihu Beijing Investment announced plans to establish three joint ventures to acquire controlling stakes in Xinjiang Gas Storage, Xiangguosi Gas Storage, and Liaohe Gas Storage for a combined total of CNY40.1 billion (USD5.8 billion). These acquisitions aim to consolidate and optimize PetroChina’s natural gas storage assets, adding 10.97 billion cubic meters of working gas storage capacity. The company expects this expansion to improve its storage flexibility and support the stable operation and growth of its natural gas supply chain.
China to promote high-quality development of satellite communication industry
Xinhua | English | News | Aug. 29, 2025 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced guidelines to promote high-quality development in the satellite communication industry by optimizing business access. The initiative focuses on launching satellite communication services, encouraging innovation within the commercial space sector, and driving new productivity factors to support China’s goals of becoming a manufacturing and cyber power and advancing its Digital China strategy.
By 2030, China plans to refine its management system, policies, and regulations surrounding satellite communication while improving the industrial environment and promoting integrated development across infrastructure, industrial supply, technical standards, and international cooperation. The guidelines prioritize the widespread adoption of new business models such as direct satellite connection for mobile phones, targeting over 10 million satellite communication users.
The guidelines emphasize accelerated development of low-orbit satellite internet, the application of satellite connections in mobile and terminal devices, and the expansion of market access for private enterprises. They also promote the use of satellite communication across various sectors including agriculture, transportation, energy, and urban governance. Furthermore, the guidelines support integrating satellite communication with next-generation information infrastructure like the industrial internet, vehicle networking, and air-borne communications, while advancing key technologies, an open standards system, and a collaborative industrial ecosystem.
Diokno urges Philippines to rejoin ICC to counter China's aggression
The Manila Times | English | News | Aug. 29, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
AKBAYAN Rep. Chel Diokno has called on the Philippine government to rejoin the International Criminal Court (ICC) to address China’s aggression in the West Philippine Sea (WPS). He emphasized that, as a member of the ICC, the Philippines could file cases of crimes of aggression against other countries if incidents occur within its territory. Diokno’s appeal comes after President Rodrigo Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC in 2019 following its investigation into Duterte’s drug war.
Alongside this, Diokno and 16 other lawmakers filed a resolution urging the executive branch to prompt the United Nations General Assembly to pressure China to respect the 2016 arbitral ruling and halt its hostile actions in the WPS. On July 9, Diokno and Akbayan party members also introduced House Bills 1625 and 1626. HB 1625 would mandate the teaching of WPS history and geography in schools, while HB 1626 seeks to establish July 12 as National West Philippine Sea Victory Day to commemorate the Philippines’ legal victory over China’s nine-dash line claim, as ruled by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016.
Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.
Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.
info@eruditerisk.com
The Daily Briefing is delivered Monday through Thursday via email.
Each day's reports include a combination of:
Takes
Takes are our deep dives into a topic of enduring interest or concern. Takes include copious references to all the media resources we gathered to build them.
Developments
Developments are key issues and incidents being heavily reported on in country. These are the centers of local thought gravity around which everything else revolves.
Risk Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important risk issues reported on in media, arranged by risk category. Learn about risk trends and issues while they are developing--before they blow up.
Ops Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important operational issues reported on in media, arranged by operations category. See what's changing in your market, and what's not.
Government Releases
Government press and data releases on key economic data, regulation, law, intiatives, incidents. Straight from the government's press to your eyes in less than a day.
Embassy and Business Association Releases
Statements and news releases from foreign embassies and business/industry associations, including chambers of commerce.
The Daily Briefing can run 50-100 pages each day!
Luckily, Erudite Risk tailors every report specifically to you.
Content Filtering
We try hard to ensure that every piece of information included in each day's reports will be of interest to our readers.
To fulfill our goal of comprehensively monitoring the intelligence landscape and also keeping reports readable, we build big reports--then deliver only the information that applies to you.
Each Daily Briefing is a bespoke report matched to your concerns. Tell us what you want in it, or we can match it to your professional needs. It's that easy.