China

China Daily | English | News | Dec. 12, 2025 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised up its 2025 growth forecast for the Chinese mainland from 4.7 percent to 4.8 percent. This revision is based on stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 5.2 percent in the first three quarters of 2025 and new policy support measures. Net exports contributed significantly to growth, adding 1.5 percentage points, with exports rising 6.1 percent in US dollar terms and 8.3 percent in volume, driven mainly by non-US markets.

The easing of US-China trade tensions, export market diversification strategies, and China's strength in high-tech and new-energy products are expected to sustain export resilience in the fourth quarter. Additionally, policy support amounting to 1 trillion yuan ($141.6 billion) for investment and local governments is anticipated to offset domestic economic weaknesses. The ADB's 2026 growth forecast for China remains unchanged at 4.3 percent.

For developing Asia and the Pacific, the ADB also raised its growth outlook, projecting 5.1 percent growth in 2025 and 4.6 percent in 2026, increases of 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively. This revision reflects stronger-than-expected exports and reduced trade uncertainty following the conclusion of multiple trade agreements with the United States. Resilient consumption and robust exports—especially in electronics, semiconductors, and through export diversification—have sustained economic activity despite weaker investment and inventory destocking.

The ADB highlights that solid economic fundamentals underpin the region’s growth amid global trade uncertainties, which have been partly alleviated by new trade agreements. Continued efforts to promote open trade and investment are encouraged to maintain resilience and growth prospects for Asia and the Pacific.

新华述评·2025中国经济回眸｜抓紧抓好就业这个“最大的民生”

Xinhua | Local Language | News | Dec. 12, 2025 | UndeterminedEmployment

In 2025, China has prioritized employment as the fundamental support for economic development and the largest livelihood issue, implementing various policies to stabilize job markets amid economic pressures. By the first three quarters, China achieved 88% of its urban new employment target with a 5.2% average urban unemployment rate from January to October, below the expected control target. The government introduced measures like work-for-relief programs in disaster-stricken areas, financial support for enterprises, and expanded unemployment insurance subsidies to stabilize and expand employment opportunities.

Targeted support was given to key groups including youth, migrant workers, and the unemployed through employment services, internships, labor matching, and training programs. The government helped various sectors expand job opportunities by increasing demand in emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, digital technology, and modern services. New occupations and job types have been created in response to industrial transformation, with enterprises upgrading talent cultivation to align with technological advances.

Efforts were made to improve employment quality and workers' wellbeing by strengthening vocational training, enhancing wage protections, and developing inclusive labor rights coverage for gig-economy workers. Multiple initiatives promoted skill development and better job matching, benefiting groups like caregivers and college graduates. The government also intensified campaigns against wage arrears and fostered a skills-oriented wage distribution system.

Looking forward, China aims to continue stabilizing employment through a comprehensive employment-first strategy focused on broadening job opportunities, improving employment quality, supporting vulnerable groups, and ensuring workers' rights, thus promoting social wellbeing and economic resilience.

China News | English | News | Dec. 12, 2025 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

China's economy is expected to maintain resilient growth in 2026 and beyond, supported by pro-growth macroeconomic policies and a strategic shift toward a consumption-driven growth model. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for China's economic growth to 5 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, citing strong exports and fiscal stimulus as key factors. The Asian Development Bank also revised its 2025 growth forecast upward to 4.8 percent, reflecting stronger-than-expected GDP growth and new policy supports.

To sustain medium-term growth, experts emphasize the need for aggressive measures to boost household spending, including more expansionary macroeconomic policies and targeted housing assistance for young people. Boosting domestic consumption is highlighted as the overarching policy priority that will help reduce internal and external imbalances while providing a more stable growth source. Consumer inflation increased to 0.7 percent year-on-year in November 2025, driven by higher prices in home appliances, clothing, and services, signaling the impact of policies aimed at stimulating demand.

The property sector slowdown remains a significant drag on consumer confidence. The IMF recommends decisive actions to resolve this issue, such as allowing unviable developers to exit the market and completing unfinished housing projects. The Chinese government’s emphasis on strengthening domestic demand was reiterated during a recent Political Bureau meeting, with projections indicating final consumption expenditure could exceed 90 trillion yuan ($12.7 trillion) during China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, accounting for about 60 percent of GDP.

Increased fiscal support for consumption is expected in 2026, including continuation of the national consumer-goods trade-in program and improved housing subsidies for young people. Additional initiatives may involve extending public holidays and paid leave. Financial institutions forecast China’s deficit-to-GDP ratio will stay around 4 percent to enable proactive fiscal policies. Suggestions to tailor subsidies based on product price and technology level were also proposed to further stimulate consumption growth.