China

高盛维持2026慢牛预判：反内卷、出海、AI板块将撑起A股企业14%盈利增长

Sina Finance | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedOperating Results

Goldman Sachs projects China’s real GDP growth at 4.8% in 2026, with a “low first, high later” pattern where first-half growth ranges between 4.5% and 5%, and second-half growth nears 5%. Exports are expected to grow steadily, supported by global economic demand, competitive Chinese products in emerging markets, and China’s control of key minerals like rare earths. Nominal export growth in US dollars is forecasted at 5.6%, with export volumes rising 5%–6% annually.

Consumption growth is expected to be driven by the service sector, which is more labor-intensive and can bolster employment and incomes. Household consumption remains weak but is supported by increased government consumption following a debt-conversion plan and ongoing trade-in policies. Investment is anticipated to improve over 2025, driven by previously delayed projects, new financial instruments, and major initiatives in technology, AI, and power grids tied to the 15th Five-Year Plan.

Goldman Sachs maintains a “slow bull” outlook for China’s A-share market in 2026, supported primarily by a sharp rise in corporate earnings, projected to grow 14% compared to 4% in 2025. Key drivers include AI sector development shifting toward applications and monetization, overseas revenue growth from Chinese companies reaching 20% by 2030, and the “anti-involution” policy boosting margins in upstream and manufacturing sectors.

Capital inflows are expected to be robust, with over 3 trillion yuan of new domestic capital entering the stock market, and significant southbound and northbound foreign investments setting new records. Overseas investor interest is increasing but has not yet reached scale, highlighting the value of Chinese assets for global portfolio diversification.

Sector preferences favor technology hardware (including smartphones, AI servers, semiconductors), internet, insurance, and materials sectors due to their alignment with AI development, technological self-reliance, and “anti-involution” policies. Thematic focuses include AI, going-global expansion, private-sector leadership, mid-cap policy beneficiaries, and companies with high shareholder returns, as China’s listed firms are expected to distribute about 4 trillion yuan in cash returns in 2026.

In commodity strategy, Goldman Sachs remains positive on precious metals, especially gold, for its safe-haven value amid global uncertainties. Technology sector valuations are judged reasonable and supported by earnings growth, with no bubble risk detected. Investors are advised to center portfolios around AI, going-global, and “anti-involution” themes, diversify geographically, and leverage structural opportunities backed by government policy.

Xinhua | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Regulation

China's Ministry of Finance issued a notice on January 21, 2026, to curb excessively low bidding in government procurement, effective February 1, 2026. The measure aims to reduce involution-style competition and promote a healthy market environment where quality is rewarded with fair pricing.

The notice requires procuring entities to set reasonable price ceilings and configure appropriate procurement packages to support competitive bidding. Financial authorities will oversee bid evaluations, and if evaluation committees fail to properly review abnormally low bids, corrective actions will be taken, including legal accountability for responsible experts.

Procurement entities are also mandated to ensure performance acceptance procedures comply with legal standards, with thorough reviews of all technical and commercial contract requirements during inspections and complaint handling.

Xinhua | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption

Hong Kong is taking a proactive yet cautious approach to developing digital assets, emphasizing the principle of "same activity, same risk, same regulation" to ensure responsible and sustainable market growth. Since 2023, Hong Kong has licensed 11 virtual asset trading platforms and plans to introduce a stablecoin licensing regime later this year. The government has also been a leader in tokenization, issuing three batches of tokenized green bonds totaling about 2.1 billion U.S. dollars.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan highlighted the synergy between finance and technology, noting that digital assets improve transparency, efficiency, inclusiveness, and risk management in financial services. These innovations also support better capital allocation to the real economy. Chan's remarks were made during the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, where he also met with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to express Hong Kong and China's strong support for free trade, multilateralism, and WTO reform efforts.

Additionally, Chan held discussions with senior officials from various economies, international organizations, and business leaders to promote Hong Kong's latest developments and strategic advantages as an international financial center.