China

高盛维持2026慢牛预判：反内卷、出海、AI板块将撑起A股企业14%盈利增长

Sina Finance | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedOperating Results

Goldman Sachs projects China’s real GDP growth at 4.8% in 2026, with a “low first, high later” pattern where first-half growth ranges between 4.5% and 5%, and second-half growth nears 5%. Exports are expected to grow steadily, supported by global economic demand, competitive Chinese products in emerging markets, and China’s control of key minerals like rare earths. Nominal export growth in US dollars is forecasted at 5.6%, with export volumes rising 5%–6% annually.

Consumption growth is expected to be driven by the service sector, which is more labor-intensive and can bolster employment and incomes. Household consumption remains weak but is supported by increased government consumption following a debt-conversion plan and ongoing trade-in policies. Investment is anticipated to improve over 2025, driven by previously delayed projects, new financial instruments, and major initiatives in technology, AI, and power grids tied to the 15th Five-Year Plan.

Goldman Sachs maintains a “slow bull” outlook for China’s A-share market in 2026, supported primarily by a sharp rise in corporate earnings, projected to grow 14% compared to 4% in 2025. Key drivers include AI sector development shifting toward applications and monetization, overseas revenue growth from Chinese companies reaching 20% by 2030, and the “anti-involution” policy boosting margins in upstream and manufacturing sectors.

Capital inflows are expected to be robust, with over 3 trillion yuan of new domestic capital entering the stock market, and significant southbound and northbound foreign investments setting new records. Overseas investor interest is increasing but has not yet reached scale, highlighting the value of Chinese assets for global portfolio diversification.

Sector preferences favor technology hardware (including smartphones, AI servers, semiconductors), internet, insurance, and materials sectors due to their alignment with AI development, technological self-reliance, and “anti-involution” policies. Thematic focuses include AI, going-global expansion, private-sector leadership, mid-cap policy beneficiaries, and companies with high shareholder returns, as China’s listed firms are expected to distribute about 4 trillion yuan in cash returns in 2026.

In commodity strategy, Goldman Sachs remains positive on precious metals, especially gold, for its safe-haven value amid global uncertainties. Technology sector valuations are judged reasonable and supported by earnings growth, with no bubble risk detected. Investors are advised to center portfolios around AI, going-global, and “anti-involution” themes, diversify geographically, and leverage structural opportunities backed by government policy.

Xinhua | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

China's 2025 GDP growth demonstrated resilience amid global uncertainties, reflecting the early effects of a strategic economic rebalancing under the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). Policymakers are shifting focus from pursuing headline growth figures to enhancing economic stability and balance by expanding domestic demand, investing in human capital, and promoting innovation. This approach prioritizes long-term resilience through targeted support rather than broad stimulus measures.

The central bank's recent cautious monetary easing and planned increased fiscal spending for 2026 underscore the government's commitment to sustainable development. Fiscal resources will be directed towards consumption, human capital investment, and livelihood protection, balancing current needs with medium- and long-term financial sustainability. External observers see this as a sign of China's strategic transformation toward economic maturity.

Structural rebalancing is central to the new economic direction, with domestic consumption and technological advancement replacing traditional growth drivers like investment and exports. The government plans to release a domestic demand expansion strategy for 2026-2030, emphasizing sectors such as elderly care, green technology, and cultural tourism. Innovation, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, is expected to enhance productivity and drive future growth.

A strong emphasis is placed on investing in people, viewing human capital as essential to sustainable growth and innovation. Policies aim to increase household incomes, stabilize and improve employment quality, and leverage China’s vast pool of STEM graduates to transition from a "population dividend" to a "talent dividend." This focus on intrinsic economic stability through rebalancing is poised to shape China's development trajectory amid global complexities in 2026 and beyond.

Peoples Daily | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Cyber Attacks and Data Loss

In 2025, Chinese mainland authorities investigated and managed nearly 4,000 cyber attacks originating from Taiwan, marking a 25 percent increase compared to the previous year. These cyber operations targeted the theft of classified information from key sectors such as transportation, finance, science and technology, and energy.

The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council revealed that some of the cyber attacks were carried out by Taiwan-based organizations, including the military. Mainland officials also denied allegations from Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party that China had initiated cyber attacks against Taiwan, calling these claims a blatant distortion of the truth.