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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Arrest of Maduro Shows Split in Global North and South
China-US Focus | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 21, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
On January 3, 2026, U.S. Delta Force conducted a high-profile military operation to detain Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The mission involved extensive air and ground assets, including around 1,500 personnel and 150 aircraft, and was ordered directly by President Donald Trump without Congressional approval. The U.S. labeled the action as a law enforcement measure to address longstanding drug trafficking and narco-terrorism charges against Maduro, though it did not provide conclusive evidence to support this claim.
The operation sparked intense international debate and division between the global North and South. Many Northern countries justified the U.S. action, while most Southern countries condemned it as an illegal act violating international law, sovereignty, and the UN Charter. A UN Security Council emergency session convened to address the incident, with the UN Secretary-General warning that the operation set a dangerous precedent for global order. The U.S. move was widely seen as a unilateral act of war and kidnapping.
Venezuelans were split in their reactions; some welcomed Maduro’s removal due to his authoritarian rule and economic mismanagement, while Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez rejected any surrender of sovereignty to the U.S. The operation also highlighted key geopolitical factors, including Venezuela's vast crude oil reserves, which the U.S. aims to access amid ongoing rejection of climate change concerns by the Trump administration.
The arrest showcased advanced U.S. military capabilities, intelligence integration, and special forces proficiency, successfully overcoming Russian and Cuban protections around Maduro without apparent casualties. This demonstrated U.S. superiority in military operations and intelligence, raising questions about security breaches or deep infiltration of Venezuelan defenses. The move sends strong signals to Russia, China, and other nations with interests in Latin America and Africa.
Despite military success, the operation risks undermining U.S. credibility internationally, painting it as a revisionist power violating international norms and damaging the UN-led global order. Venezuela’s future remains uncertain, with risks of chaos and accusations of U.S. exploitation for oil interests. The event also pressures other regional countries and highlights the ongoing great-power competition, influencing global alliances and prompting reconsideration of international governance frameworks.
The operation is seen as part of the Trump administration’s strategy to assert American dominance and impact domestic politics. It reveals that true multipolarity has not yet arrived, as the U.S. maintains overwhelming asymmetric advantages in intelligence, military integration, and alliances. The international response underscores the need to uphold sovereignty and resist unilateral actions by dominant powers. Further detailed analysis of the operation’s military, technological, and strategic aspects is recommended to understand the intelligence and operational gaps it exploited. The event also serves as a call for political leaders worldwide to address their populations' fundamental needs to prevent internal dissent and external interference.
China–South Korea Economic Ties Deepen, Evolve Into Multi-Layered Relationship
Yicai Global | English | News | Jan. 21, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth
The economic relationship between China and South Korea has evolved from a vertical division of labor to a multi-layered horizontal cooperation during the last Five Year Plan, which ended in 2025. Bilateral trade between the two countries increased by 1.7 percent last year, reaching CNY2.37 trillion (USD340 billion). China’s exports to South Korea totaled CNY1.03 trillion (USD147.9 billion), while imports from South Korea were CNY1.34 trillion. South Korea has been China’s second-largest trading partner for two consecutive years, and its trade with China is considered higher quality compared to China’s trade with the United States.
There is significant industrial complementarity between the two countries, with South Korea able to leverage Chinese technology to reduce costs, while Chinese companies use the South Korean market for product testing. Trade with South Korea accounted for 5.2 percent of China’s total foreign trade last year, indicating room for further growth. China has become more competitive than South Korea in fields such as robotics, autonomous driving, electric vehicles, and semiconductors, now leading in chip research, manufacturing, product services, and domestic demand. Conversely, South Korea maintains an advantage in the supply chain for materials, components, equipment, and overseas demand.
During a recent state visit to Shanghai, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung attended the China–ROK Innovation and Entrepreneurship Forum, emphasizing the need for cross-border cooperation and technology sharing to foster innovation. He highlighted the importance of creating an environment that supports young entrepreneurs and professionals. President Lee expressed hope that youth-led scientific and technological collaborations between the two countries under China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) will become the norm and drive productivity growth.
GDP goal of 4.5-5% 'achievable'
China Daily | English | News | Jan. 21, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth
China’s economy achieved a 5 percent real GDP growth in 2025, meeting its preset annual target despite external uncertainties and domestic economic transitions. Veteran economist Guan Tao attributed this success to breakthroughs in technology and emerging consumption trends, highlighting innovations like DeepSeek, Ne Zha 2, Unitree humanoid robots, and the overseas expansion of Chinese pharmaceuticals, alongside a recovery in consumer activity.
Looking ahead to 2026, Guan considers a GDP growth target between 4.5 percent and 5 percent achievable and aligned with China’s long-term development goals, including the 2035 per capita GDP benchmark. He pointed out that with low inflation and room for labor market improvement, there remains potential for stronger economic momentum if macroeconomic policy support and reforms are effectively coordinated. Strengthening domestic demand could reduce reliance on foreign markets and boost China’s import demand, benefiting both the domestic and global economies.
Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative with a focus on reflation to support price recovery. The People’s Bank of China cut interest rates on structural monetary tools by 0.25 percentage points to strengthen financial support and signaled further easing measures, such as potential cuts to benchmark rates and reserve requirement ratios. Guan emphasized that the recent appreciation of the renminbi reflects market fundamentals rather than policy intervention, cautioning that currency appreciation should not be relied upon to drive internationalization. He also noted the ongoing move toward a multipolar international monetary system, with gold playing a growing role in global reserves despite potential short-term price volatility.
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