Taiwan

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Record Rally in Taiwan Stocks Driven by TSMC Surge and Tariff Breakthrough Amid Geopolitical Volatility
Jan. 22, 2026 | Financial System

Taiwan’s stock market and semiconductor sector experienced volatile trading amid shifting global trade dynamics and corporate earnings.

**On January 20, 2026, the Taiex tumbled nearly 300 points at the open but rallied late in the session to close at a record 31,759.99, up 120.70 points (0.38%).**
TSMC spearheaded the rebound, wiping out its early losses to end at a record NT$1,775.00, reversing roughly 280 index points. United Microelectronics Corp climbed on optimism over rising 8-inch wafer foundry prices, and silicon photonics concept stocks also gained. Meanwhile, memory names such as Nanya Technology swung sharply as foreign investors fretted over potential memory tariffs.

**Institutional investors—including investment trusts, foreign investors, and proprietary traders—sold a net NT$15.497 billion in Taiwanese equities, with investment trusts offloading the most.**
Despite this broad selling pressure, the market rotated into defense stocks on new procurement announcements and into optical communications plays driven by AI server and data center demand.

**TSMC bolstered investor confidence with its Q4 2025 results, reporting a 35% profit increase and record gross margins.**
The company outlined US$52–56 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, and after-hours block trades reached NT$1,822—the first time above NT$1,800—signaling strong short-term bullish momentum. In the US, TSMC’s ADRs fell about 2% on January 20 amid broader market weakness tied to US–Europe trade tensions but had jumped 4.44% on January 15 following its robust quarterly earnings.

**Taiwan and the US finalized reciprocal tariff talks, setting a 15% non-stacking rate that aligns Taiwan with Japan and South Korea under Section 232 provisions.**
This agreement strengthens Taiwan’s semiconductor sector, supports up to US$250 billion in Taiwanese corporate investments backed by US$10 billion in US government credit guarantees, and boosts Taiwan’s export competitiveness. Although TSMC’s US fabs never faced tariffs, they operate with slimmer margins due to higher costs yet remain a key component of the company’s dual-market strategy.

**Escalating US–Europe tensions—driven by President Trump’s threats of tariffs on eight European nations over Greenland sovereignty disputes—sent US indices sharply lower on January 20: the Dow dropped 870.74 points (1.76%), the S&P 500 fell 2.06%, the Nasdaq slid 2.39%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dipped 1.68%.**
These developments weakened the US dollar, pushed gold to record highs above US$4,700 per ounce, and drove demand for safe-haven assets, while global bond markets came under selling pressure.

**In Taiwan’s broader market, memory chip makers such as Micron and Winbond reached record highs amid capacity expansions.**
Lijidian sold its Gongluo plant to Micron for US$1.8 billion to deepen DRAM packaging cooperation. Machinery stocks—including Hiwin Technologies and Tongtai Machine & Tool—rose after tariffs fell from 20% to 15%. Glass cloth producers like Taiwan Glass Industry and Baotek Industrial Materials rallied around 10%. In contrast, plastics companies Nan Ya Plastics and Formosa Plastics declined, and most financials slipped modestly, with E. Sun Financial as an outlier.

**Analysts raised TSMC’s price target to NT$2,600–2,700, projecting up to 50% upside based on strong earnings and capex plans.**
With turnover on the Taiwan Stock Exchange exceeding NT$777 billion on January 20 and total daily trading across main and OTC markets topping NT$1 trillion so far in January, market momentum appears robust. Cautious voices point to elevated margin balances and short-term pullback risks amid geopolitical uncertainty, while medium- to long-term forecasts anticipate sustained strength driven by AI demand, favorable tariff terms, and solid semiconductor fundamentals.
Inventec Accelerates AI Server, ASIC, Automotive, and Robotics Expansion with Record Revenue and Global Investments
Jan. 22, 2026 | Firms

Inventec is driving significant growth across its AI server, ASIC, automotive electronics and robotics businesses.

**Inventec closed 2025 at record revenue, fueled by a 40% jump in its AI server business.**
Chairman Ye Li-Cheng forecasts sustained double-digit growth in AI server and cloud solution sales for 2026, expecting the company to approach trillion-TWD revenue status. General Manager Cai Zhi-an said server demand remains strong among North American cloud providers despite rising component costs and raw material shortages, and he anticipates securing new customers.

**To support this momentum, Inventec will increase its capital expenditures to approximately US$1 billion in 2026 from US$500 million in 2025, funding expansions at five sites in Mexico, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam and Texas.**
These investments include acquiring factories and land and installing nearly 30 new surface-mount technology production lines. The Thailand server factory will open in 2027, the Houston plant will begin higher-grade server production in Q1 2026, and the Mexico facility—focused on automotive products and SMT—will start operations in August 2026.

**Servers are poised to overtake notebooks as Inventec’s top revenue generator, driven by rising shipments of L6 form-factor ASIC server motherboards and entry into high-end L10 and L11 segments.**
ASIC servers should represent 50% of shipments in 2026, up from 40% in 2025, thanks to their higher gross margins. Partnerships with NVIDIA and AMD support ASIC server design, although NVIDIA’s direct supply of L10 Vera Rubin servers may limit some opportunities. Inventec plans to leverage its new Texas factory for L10–L11 production and retain a motherboard-centric model to protect margins and avoid low-margin complete systems.

**Revenue in the automotive electronics division doubled year-on-year in 2025 and is set to triple to NT$9 billion in 2026, driven by the Mexico factory opening in August.**
The division has shifted from Tier-1 partnerships to contract manufacturing as Inventec diversifies beyond servers and taps growing vehicle electronics demand.

**Inventec is also advancing its robotics segment with R&D on a dual-arm wheeled mobile platform.**
Supported by government collaborations and contract manufacturing discussions, this initiative positions the company for future robotics growth.

Monitored Intelligence for Taiwan - Jan. 23, 2026


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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China says trade deal with U.S. will 'drain Taiwan’s economy' for American benefits

CNBC | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

China has strongly criticized the recent trade deal between Taiwan and the U.S., asserting that it will primarily benefit Washington while weakening Taiwan’s industrial base. The agreement reduces U.S. tariffs on Taiwan’s exports to 15%, with Taiwan committing $250 billion in investments to build and expand technology operations, including semiconductors and AI, within the U.S. Additionally, Taiwan will guarantee $250 billion in credit to its chip and tech firms to increase production capacity in the U.S., while Washington will lower levies on most Taiwanese goods and waive tariffs on certain products.

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson, Peng Qingen, accused Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of allowing the U.S. to undermine the island’s industrial strength by urging Taiwanese companies like TSMC to increase investments in the U.S. at the expense of local industries. Beijing also reaffirmed its opposition to any agreements between Taiwan and countries diplomatic with China, emphasizing adherence to the “one-China principle” and accusing the U.S. of using Taiwan to contain China.

While U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated the aim is to bring 40% of Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain to the U.S., Taiwan's vice premier Cheng Li-chiun noted this goal depends on cooperation from U.S. and other international chip companies, not Taiwan alone. Taiwan remains a global leader in semiconductor production, with TSMC being the world's largest contract chipmaker, already pledging $165 billion for U.S. investments and planning additional fabrication plants. Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance and strategic importance have made its autonomy a priority for the U.S. and allies amidst increasing Chinese pressure on the island.

國科會投入低碳能源研究拚淨零 台積電表態可協助

NSTC Invests in Low-Carbon Energy Research to Pursue Net Zero, TSMC Pledges Support

Central News Agency | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Climate Change

The National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) held a committee meeting on January 21, 2026, to discuss advancements in low-carbon energy research as part of Taiwan's carbon reduction strategy. NSTC Chair Wu Cheng-wen announced that the NSTC is supporting academic R&D in various low-carbon energy technologies and unveiled the "Net-Zero Technology Innovation Program Plan." This program aims to promote composite technology topics, field-site technology validations, and encourage citizen participation to meet Taiwan’s overall carbon reduction goals.

TSMC Senior Vice President Ho Li-mei expressed the company’s willingness to partner with the government to accelerate net-zero technology research if government science and technology funding proves insufficient. Wu highlighted that the current year is the final one for the Net-Zero Technology Program, which will evolve into the Net-Zero Technology Innovation Program starting next year. The program addresses challenges posed by Taiwan's limited land, high population density, and energy self-sufficiency, especially given the high power demands of the tech sector and AI development.

Wu further detailed that the NSTC supports exploration of diverse low-carbon energy options, including new nuclear energy, stressing adherence to safety, nuclear waste management, and social consensus as outlined by President Lai Ching-te. Committee member Tong Tzu-hsien emphasized the importance of keeping new energy costs reasonable to avoid unfair burdens on the public, an approach the NSTC agrees with.

The updated program will strengthen composite technologies and use net-zero field validation parks to integrate technology validation, facility management, international cooperation, enterprise incubation, and talent cultivation. It also includes community energy promotion strategies to enhance energy resilience, particularly in isolated island areas, through distributed energy integration and management.

2026全球名家瞭望/穩定幣創新迷思與金融風險

2026 Global Experts Outlook / Stablecoin Innovation Myths and Financial Risks

United Daily News | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedFinancial System Problems

Cryptocurrencies remain controversial, divided between unsecured types like Bitcoin and Ether, which depend solely on public belief, and stablecoins, which are backed by real-world assets such as dollars or Treasury bills. Both face critical questions of viability and societal benefit, with the consensus that cryptocurrencies generally do not provide public benefits and contribute to issues like tax evasion, money laundering, illicit financing, and lack investor protections.

Stablecoins assert full backing by reserves and promise the efficiency of digital tokens with traditional money's stability. However, doubts persist about compliance with these claims, potential investments in riskier assets, and political tensions surrounding regulation, especially between the United States' light-touch approach and stricter rules elsewhere. Risks such as massive runs on stablecoins due to doubts about collateral or liquidity remain significant, and a shift of deposits from traditional banks to stablecoins raises concerns about the future of bank lending.

Despite these challenges, stablecoins meet a real demand for faster, cheaper, and programmable payment systems. Three competing digital currency models aim to serve this market: decentralized cryptocurrencies, privately issued corporate currencies, and state-guaranteed digital fiat currencies. The latter may be implemented through public-private partnerships or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), with key principles including inclusiveness, low cost, API openness for innovation, privacy protection, avoidance of disintermediation, and insured deposit status with holding limits.

Public oversight, prudential regulation, and accountability are crucial to ensure innovation strengthens economic fundamentals and prevents financial instability. Unsecured tokens and loosely regulated stablecoins must be curtailed before they integrate into the shadow banking system. The future of money should balance private innovation with public purpose, aiming for digital currencies that serve society rather than perpetuate risky speculation.

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