Taiwan

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

TSMC Advances on Record Revenue, Analyst Upgrades, and Expanding Global Capacity

Jan. 13, 2026 | Firms

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company dominates nearly 70 percent of the global semiconductor foundry market, supplying advanced chips for hyperscale data centers rather than focusing solely on design.

**TSMC’s integrated approach sets it apart from peers such as NVIDIA and Broadcom, which outsource production.**
The company is expanding its capacity with new fabrication facilities under construction in Germany, Japan and Arizona.

**In December 2025, TSMC generated NT$335.03 billion in revenue, a 2.5 percent decline from November but a 20.4 percent increase year-on-year.**
Full-year 2025 revenue reached a record NT$3.8 trillion, up 31.6 percent over 2024, and fourth-quarter sales topped NT$1 trillion for the first time. Its US ADR closed at $323.63 on January 9, 2026—up 6.5 percent year-to-date and close to its all-time high of $327.43. On the Taiwan Stock Exchange, each NT$1 move in TSMC’s share price translates into an eight-point shift in the index.

**Institutional investors have raised their 2026 target prices, placing NT$2,000 as a new baseline and projecting highs of NT$2,400 at ALETHEIA Capital and NT$2,330 at Goldman Sachs.**
Nomura anticipates US dollar revenue growth of 25–30 percent in 2026, gross margins rising to 61.5 percent by 2027, and EPS gains of 15–19 percent, backed by capital expenditures of US$45–50 billion in 2026 and US$55–60 billion in 2027 due to 2nm and 3nm node constraints. Fubon Securities lifted its target to NT$2,150, citing premium pricing power on advanced nodes and ongoing margin expansion.

**As TSMC prepares for its January 15, 2026 investor conference, market focus centers on the timing and scale of 2nm mass production and customer adoption, the full-year 2026 revenue and gross-margin outlook amid overseas factory investments, and an anticipated capex increase beyond US$50 billion.**
Analysts are formulating questions about supply-chain bottlenecks, semiconductor cycle dynamics, AI accelerator growth, regional competition and advanced process capacity.

**In early January, the Taiwan market climbed above 30,500 points, driven primarily by TSMC alongside gains in electronics, semiconductors and AI-related sectors.**
Subsequent profit-taking prompted short-term corrections, while traditional industries such as plastics, cables and steel gained relative strength. Despite net selling by foreign investors—particularly in TSMC—trading volumes stayed robust thanks to domestic buying and elevated margin financing, though some analysts warn of overbought technical indicators.

**Active and passive ETFs have significantly increased their TSMC holdings, sparking debate over regulatory limits and investment strategies.**
Margin financing reached a 17-year high but remains manageable relative to overall market gains. Participants are watching ETF component adjustments, fee structures and potential volatility around upcoming US CPI data and TSMC disclosures.

**Competitive pressure from Samsung and Intel’s advancing process technologies coincides with Qualcomm’s talks with Samsung on 2nm foundry deals, suggesting a shift toward dual-foundry strategies among major chip designers.**
TSMC’s technology leadership and capacity expansion plans will remain central as the company navigates pricing pressures and emerging manufacturing alternatives.

**Institutional consensus now forecasts 2026 EPS around NT$85 and 2027 EPS near NT$100, underpinned by strong AI chip demand and a ramp-up of 2nm production by late 2025.**
Analysts expect over 30 percent revenue growth in 2026—potentially reaching NT$5 trillion—while the investor conference is set to confirm operational guidance and shape both TSMC’s share trajectory and Taiwan’s broader market momentum.

### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**

Domain	Causal Chain	Possible Outcome
Competitiveness	(Market-size and demand potential ↑ → Global export-market share shift ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑)	Taiwan cements its premium semiconductor export dominance, boosting the high-value-added share in its trade mix.
Competitiveness	(Intangible-asset investment ratio ↑ → Patent-grant growth rate ↑ → Patent-to-product conversion rate ↑ → Return on R&D investment ↑)	Accelerated patent filings and stronger productization raise R&D returns and reinforce TSMC’s innovation leadership.
Macroeconomics & Growth	(Capital-formation rate ↑ → Investment rate (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑)	The surge in capital formation lifts investment-to-GDP ratios, prompting upward revisions to Taiwan’s potential GDP growth.
Firms	(Cost of capital (WACC) ↑ → Average cost of capital (WACC) ↑ → Corporate bond spread blowout ↑ → Corporate default rate surge ↑)	Rising cost of capital and wider spreads elevate default risks for smaller firms under tighter funding conditions.
Competitiveness	(Cost of capital (WACC) ↓ → Credit-availability index (SME loan approval) ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Business-formation rate ↑)	Cheaper financing supports SME investment and new firm creation, diversifying Taiwan’s industrial base.
Firms	(Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↑ → Inventory days on hand ↑ → Input-cost inflation (producer-price index) ↑)	Extended delivery times and higher inventories drive producer-price inflation as firms pass on increased carrying costs.
Financial System	(Macro-prudential toolkit ↑ → Derivatives margin-requirement changes ↑ → Market-liquidity freeze duration (days) ↑ → Financial-asset boom/bust amplitude ↑)	Stricter margin requirements extend market freeze periods and magnify subsequent asset price swings.
Technology & Innovation	(Shift toward dual-foundry strategies ↑ → Technology FDI inflow ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → High-tech export market share ↓)	Diversified foundry sourcing reduces TSMC’s utilization and curbs Taiwan’s share of global high-tech exports.
Technology & Innovation	(Unprecedented capex surge ↑ → Domestic AI compute capacity ↑ → Workforce digital literacy rate ↑ → Total-factor productivity growth from tech ↑)	Expanded AI capacity and an upskilled workforce accelerate total-factor productivity growth across Taiwan’s economy.
Financial System	(Financial-market openness ↑ → Cross-border portfolio flows ↑ → Asset-price valuation metrics ↑ → Asset-price wealth effect ↑)	Increased portfolio inflows inflate asset prices and wealth effects, fueling higher consumer spending and investment.

### BOTTOM LINE

- TSMC’s record quarterly and annual revenue growth reflects durable AI and hyperscaler demand, which is likely to shift Taiwan’s export mix toward higher-value semiconductors and prompt upward revisions to potential GDP as capital formation and export-led productivity rise (record sales → higher high‑value export share → GDP growth revision); monitor export composition, trade-weighted semiconductor volumes, and official GDP forecasts for confirmation.

- The unprecedented capex program (US$45–60 billion annually) will materially raise Taiwan’s investment‑to‑GDP ratio and create near‑term margin pressure for TSMC because of heavy depreciation and cash outflows, while enabling long‑term gains in manufacturing capacity, domestic AI compute, and total‑factor productivity as 2nm/3nm ramps; watch quarterly capex cadence, fab completion schedules, and gross‑margin guidance to assess the tradeoff.

- The broad re‑rating by institutional analysts and higher EPS targets has driven concentrated ETF holdings and a surge in margin financing, leaving markets susceptible to rapid corrections around CPI prints or TSMC disclosures because of index sensitivity (each NT$1 move → eight‑point swing in Taiwan index); track ETF flows, margin‑debt levels, and upcoming investor‑conference disclosures as leading indicators of near‑term volatility.

- Geographic expansion of fabs (Arizona, Germany, Japan) combined with Samsung’s and Intel’s node progress and Qualcomm’s talks with Samsung creates a realistic move toward dual‑foundry sourcing that will likely exert pricing pressure on TSMC and modestly reduce its utilisation rates over time (customer dual‑sourcing → demand redistribution → utilisation and pricing effects); monitor customer foundry allocation announcements, TSMC fill‑rate metrics, and competitor capacity ramps.

- Global fab rollouts and multi‑regional supply chains will lengthen supplier lead times and raise inventory buffers, driving upstream producer‑price pressures as firms pass on higher carrying costs (fab geography spread → longer logistics chains → inventory days ↑ → PPI upward pressure); suppliers and OEMs should reassess logistics, pre‑position critical inputs, and hedge input‑cost exposure.

- Elevated leverage and concentration could prompt macroprudential countermeasures (higher margin requirements, ETF composition rules) that would temporarily drain liquidity and magnify price swings, with smaller, highly leveraged firms at elevated funding‑cost risk if credit conditions tighten (leverage ↑ → regulator response ↑ → liquidity ↓ → volatility ↑); monitor regulator statements, derivatives margin moves, and corporate bond spreads to gauge stress.

- The investment and capacity expansion present a practical opportunity to accelerate workforce upskilling and domestic supplier upgrading, which will raise digital literacy and diffuse AI capabilities across the economy (capex and domestic compute ↑ → training and spillovers ↑ → TFP gains); policymakers and firms should coordinate targeted training programs, R&D incentives, and supplier‑development grants to lock in these gains.

- For investors and corporate planners, the most actionable near‑term determinants of value are the timing and scale of 2nm mass production, the 2026 revenue and gross‑margin outlook to be disclosed at the investor conference, and the degree of customer diversification away from TSMC; prioritize scenario plans around 2nm ramp timing, sensitivity analyses for margin dilution from capex, and contingency plans for episodic market corrections driven by ETF/margin deleveraging.

AI-Driven Memory Supercycle Fuels Global Chip Shortages and Record Price Gains

Jan. 13, 2026 | Technology & Innovation

Surging AI-driven workloads have sparked a global memory chip shortage that shows no signs of easing.

**Major manufacturers Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron have struggled to expand capacity meaningfully while enforcing a pricing floor that preserves gross margins above 60 percent.**
As a result, the industry faces an unprecedented “memory supercycle” driven by AI training and inference, with shortages of both DRAM and NAND expected to persist through 2027.

**Hyperscalers are pouring capital into compute hardware to support AI, driving their expenditures up by an estimated 45 percent in 2026 and 13 percent in 2027.**
This surge has strained memory supply chains: manufacturers hold only four to five weeks of DRAM finished goods while customers keep just seven to nine weeks on hand, and NAND inventories remain equally tight.

**Prices across all memory segments are climbing at record rates.**
In 2026, Samsung’s DRAM average selling price is set to rise 84 percent year-on-year, SK Hynix’s by 75 percent, and NAND by 71 percent. Enterprise NAND suppliers such as SanDisk have announced price increases of more than 100 percent alongside tighter payment terms, heightening competition for limited allocations.

**On the supply side, chipmakers are prioritizing high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI applications and capping non-HBM DRAM capacity growth under 12 percent annually through 2027.**
Yield challenges and complexity in next-generation HBM4 and HBM4E further restrict supply improvements. By maintaining a gross-margin floor above 60 percent, memory makers are achieving profitability levels that exceed those of leading foundries.

Procurement teams at major US technology firms have become so desperate for allocations that some extend their stays in Korean hotels to secure chips—a phenomenon dubbed “memory beggars.” Even price rises exceeding 50 percent fail to dampen demand, underscoring the market’s tightness.

**Memory packaging and testing companies are riding the same wave of demand.**
Licheng, Huadong and Nanmao have each raised their prices by up to 30 percent amid near‐full capacity utilization and surging orders. Some are already planning a second round of hikes, contingent on market conditions, with analysts expecting to see the financial impact in the first quarter of 2026.

**Licheng reports almost full utilization of its DRAM and NAND lines, primarily serving leading international memory producers; its price increases should boost gross margins and set a sector benchmark.**
Huadong, which focuses on niche industrial‐control packaging, has rebounded as customers digest inventory and tap into the broader supercycle. Nanmao, heavily weighted toward DRAM—especially DDR4, which makes up 70 to 80 percent of its revenue—stands to benefit from resurgent traditional DRAM demand despite its smaller NAND footprint.

**Investor interest in memory and related semiconductor stocks remains strong.**
Taiwan’s semiconductor index has surpassed 30,000 points as institutional investors flock to companies delivering double-digit revenue growth and solid backers. Financial institutions such as Daiwa Capital Markets recommend global memory leaders—including Micron, Kioxia and Samsung—citing constrained supply and sustained demand as the foundation of the ongoing memory supercycle.

Monitored Intelligence for Taiwan - Jan. 13, 2026

News
Media
387

Government
Releases
6

City/State
Releases
39

Embassy
Releases
1

Foreign
Service
Advisories
0

Academic/
Think
Tank
0

Podcasts
0

Videos
0

Social
Media
0

Business
Releases
1

Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.

Risk Categories Reported on Today

Risk Category

Items Reported On

Accidents

Pollution

Corporate Corruption or Fraud

Crime

Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

Supply Chain Issues

Strikes and Work Stoppages

Regulation

Critical Infrastructure Failure

Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Protest, Demonstration, Dissent

Political Scandal or Corruption

Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.

We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.

Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.

Operations Categories Reported on Today

Operations Category

Items Reported On

Tech Development/Adoption

Real Estate

Asset Price Change

Bizdev-Partnering

Taxes

Operating Results

Politics and Elections

Trade Issues and Numbers

Investor Sentiment

Employment

Energy Prices

Inflation

Budgets-Budgeting

Mergers & Acquisitions

Economic Growth

Financial System Problems

Demographics

台積電法說會在即！陸行之估股利達7元以上

TSMC Earnings Conference Approaching! Lu Xingzhi Estimates Dividends to Exceed 7 Yuan

Yahoo Finance | Local Language | News | Jan. 13, 2026 | UndeterminedOperating Results

TSMC will hold an investor conference on January 15, 2026, with market focus on its capital expenditures, dividend policy, and performance outlook. Semiconductor analyst Lu Xingzhi predicts TSMC’s 2026 capital expenditures will be revised upward to between US$46 billion and US$50 billion, higher than Bloomberg's forecast of US$45.4 billion but below the optimistic US$53–55 billion range. He expects the company’s gross margin for the first half of 2026 to exceed market expectations of 59% to 59.5%, supported by rising prices for advanced processes and delayed recognition of 2nm revenue and depreciation.

TSMC reported December 2025 revenue of NT$335.003 billion, down 2.5% month-on-month but up 20.4% year-on-year, setting a record high for the month. Full-year 2025 revenue reached NT$3.8 trillion, up 31.6% year-on-year, surpassing NT$3 trillion for the first time and exceeding prior forecasts. Lu also anticipates TSMC’s quarterly cash dividends could increase to NT$7 or more in the second half of 2026 due to accumulated cash exceeding NT$100 per share, steady profit growth, and moderate capital expenditures.

Revenue growth is expected to remain strong, with Lu highlighting that the data center semiconductor sector should grow 57% year-on-year in 2026, potentially driving TSMC’s overall revenue growth of 25% to 30% year-on-year. TSMC’s share price reached a new high of NT$1,705 on January 12, 2026, amid rising investor optimism and raised target prices by foreign institutions ahead of the conference.

Taiwan’s stock market has been volatile but generally reaching new highs, driven by TSMC and other tech heavyweights. Despite short-term corrections and foreign investor net selling, market liquidity remains robust, and sentiment is buoyed by positive outlooks for TSMC and ongoing industry growth. The investor conference and upcoming events such as CES are seen as key catalysts for continued market momentum.

綠能後盾台電抽蓄電廠雙核心拚升級

Green Energy Support Taipower Pumps Storage Power Plant Dual Core Strives for Upgrade

Liberty Times Net | Local Language | News | Jan. 13, 2026 | UndeterminedEnergy Prices

Taiwan aims to have renewable energy account for 20% of power generation in 2026, increasing reliance on pumped-storage power plants like Daguan and Mingtan. To address equipment aging and challenges from more frequent use, Taipower plans to upgrade the plants' original outdoor switchyards to indoor GIS (Gas Insulated Switchgear) switchyards, investing over NT$23.5 billion. The switchyard upgrades will improve operational safety, resilience, and performance amid increasing renewable energy grid integration.

The upgraded GIS switchyards will feature a "double bus, unit-position parallel double GCB" configuration along with SCADA monitoring systems for real-time operational data and remote control. This design allows for rapid switching during maintenance or equipment anomalies, enabling pumped-storage units to act as large-scale storage batteries that stabilize the power grid and supply security during critical times.

Investment for the Daguan Power Plant upgrade is NT$12.46 billion and expected to complete by 2035, while Mingtan’s higher complexity upgrade, costing NT$11.02 billion, will finish by 2037. These plans require approval from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Executive Yuan before proceeding.

土方之亂延燒金融機構建商盼放寬18個月內開工限制

Construction worker unrest spreads to financial institutions, developers hope for relaxation of 18-month construction start restrictions

Yahoo Finance | Local Language | News | Jan. 13, 2026 | Strikes and Work Stoppages

On January 1, 2026, Taiwan implemented a new regulatory system for construction surplus earth and rock transportation, requiring vehicles to be equipped with GPS and use electronic consignment notes for full-flow control. The policy aims to enhance environmental management, eliminate illegal dumping, and improve transparency. However, the sudden enforcement exposed a severe shortage of licensed soil-resource yards and the inability of earth-hauling operators to handle the volume, resulting in widespread project delays and stoppages across the construction industry.

Developers are facing a dual challenge: they cannot dispose of surplus earth, and central bank regulations require construction loans to start within 18 months or face penalties such as higher interest rates or principal recalls. This time pressure, combined with the soil disposal bottleneck, has created industry-wide unrest and financial strain. Banks acknowledge developers' difficulties but remain cautious about granting exceptions due to lack of clear regulatory guidance on whether this situation qualifies as force majeure, thus leading to inconsistent handling of cases.

Industry leaders and associations have petitioned the government to establish sufficient legal disposal sites and consider suspending the new system’s implementation for several years until supporting infrastructure is ready. Meanwhile, soil and construction waste management costs have surged dramatically, further aggravating the crisis. Despite the challenges, some developers remain optimistic about the housing market’s recovery as speculators exit and end-users become more selective about property purchases.

The National Land Agency continues to promote full compliance with the new system and urges operators to complete GPS installations and inspections promptly. Efforts since 2019 have sought to unify earth consignment processes across municipalities to curb illegal dumping. However, practical implementation shortcomings, such as late industry notification and insufficient coordination, have contributed to the current disruption. The government has held emergency meetings but has yet to announce concrete relief measures to resolve the growing supply-chain crisis affecting construction and development projects.

In the financial sector, large state-owned institutions, including Chunghwa Post, remain active in Taiwan government bond markets, while Taiwan banks plan to expand overseas operations, notably in Thailand. Fraud prevention efforts by the Financial Supervisory Commission have intercepted significant scam attempts, safeguarding billions in funds. Meanwhile, gold prices surged 65 percent in 2025, with financial institutions predicting modest further gains in 2026 amid geopolitical risks and market uncertainties.

Try the Daily Briefing

Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.

Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.

How can we help?

Full Name:

Email Address:

Type of Inquiry:

Country of Interest:

Contact us for a free trial of the Daily Briefing for your country of choice.

We currently cover:

South Korea
Japan
China
Taiwan
Vietnam
India

info@eruditerisk.com

The Daily Briefing is delivered Monday through Thursday via email.

Each day's reports include a combination of:

Takes
Takes are our deep dives into a topic of enduring interest or concern. Takes include copious references to all the media resources we gathered to build them.

Developments
Developments are key issues and incidents being heavily reported on in country. These are the centers of local thought gravity around which everything else revolves.

Risk Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important risk issues reported on in media, arranged by risk category. Learn about risk trends and issues while they are developing--before they blow up.

Ops Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important operational issues reported on in media, arranged by operations category. See what's changing in your market, and what's not.

Government Releases
Government press and data releases on key economic data, regulation, law, intiatives, incidents. Straight from the government's press to your eyes in less than a day.

Embassy and Business Association Releases
Statements and news releases from foreign embassies and business/industry associations, including chambers of commerce.

The Daily Briefing is comprehensive!

The Daily Briefing can run 50-100 pages each day!

Luckily, Erudite Risk tailors every report specifically to you.

Content Filtering
We try hard to ensure that every piece of information included in each day's reports will be of interest to our readers.

To fulfill our goal of comprehensively monitoring the intelligence landscape and also keeping reports readable, we build big reports--then deliver only the information that applies to you.

Each Daily Briefing is a bespoke report matched to your concerns. Tell us what you want in it, or we can match it to your professional needs. It's that easy.