Taiwan

瑞銀示警，HBM搶走晶圓，車用DRAM漲價風暴逼近，Q2供應鏈壓力升溫

Yahoo Finance | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Supply Chain Issues

UBS warns that generative AI-driven demand for high-performance memory, especially high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI servers, is reshaping the global DRAM supply landscape. Automotive-grade DRAM is facing simultaneous price hikes and shortages, with supply chain risks expected to emerge from Q2 2026 and escalate during the 2026–2027 technology transition. The shift of wafer production resources toward higher-margin HBM reduces flexibility for traditional DRAM products like DDR, causing rapid price increases. By 2026, HBM could consume nearly 20% of global DRAM wafer supply, while DRAM contract prices are forecasted to rise approximately 55%–60% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026. Price surges may strain automakers and component suppliers, potentially reducing EBIT by 5%–6% under baseline scenarios and up to 24% in extreme cases, particularly impacting groups with high electronics and ADAS content.

Nanya Technology’s General Manager Li Pei-ying anticipates limited new DRAM capacity through 2026 and the first half of 2027, with strong demand from AI and servers driving ongoing shortages and price gains, including for multiple DRAM products such as DDR5, LPDDR5, DDR4, LPDDR4, and DDR3. Long-term contracts and prepayments are increasing, although pricing growth in Q1 2026 is expected to moderate compared to late 2025. Nanya expects its DDR5 share to grow modestly and foresees no immediate U.S. manufacturing expansion despite tariff threats, while maintaining optimism for full-year performance.

Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) is expanding cooperation with Micron through a $1.8 billion sale of its Tongluo P5 wafer fab, aiming to support Micron’s advanced DRAM capacity expansion expected to begin production in the second half of 2027. PSMC is launching a DRAM process upgrade investment plan to meet customer demand for higher-capacity and faster DRAM, underpinned by steady AI-driven memory market growth and global DRAM undersupply. The strategic partnership includes Micron providing advanced packaging services and process improvement assistance to PSMC’s Hsinchu fab, reinforcing PSMC’s foundry capabilities.

The escalating memory prices and shortages are impacting downstream markets, with Chinese smartphone brands reportedly lowering 2026 shipment targets by 10%–20% in price-sensitive segments due to rising component costs. Research firms forecast DRAM contract prices to increase roughly 55%–60% and NAND flash by 33%–38% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, while global smartphone shipment growth expectations were revised down slightly, reflecting cost pressures passing through to end consumers.

Additionally, Micron’s acquisition of PSMC’s Tongluo fab is expected to boost global DRAM supply capacity in 2027, contributing over 10% of Micron’s Q4 2026 global capacity. This move is part of Micron’s broader investment in Taiwan, complementing existing fabs and enabling faster scaling amid the AI-driven memory demand surge.

In the metals sector, copper prices have surged about 50% over the past year, driven by supply disruptions and policy expectations, but industry experts view the rally as short-term and unsustainable without long-term structural support. Mining giants like Rio Tinto and Glencore are exploring a potential merger valued above USD 200 billion, although Chinese regulatory approval is expected to hinge on concessions due to concerns over market concentration and resource security.

2026全球名家瞭望／穩定幣創新迷思與金融風險

United Daily News | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedFinancial System Problems

Cryptocurrencies remain controversial, divided between unsecured types like Bitcoin and Ether, which depend solely on public belief, and stablecoins, which are backed by real-world assets such as dollars or Treasury bills. Both face critical questions of viability and societal benefit, with the consensus that cryptocurrencies generally do not provide public benefits and contribute to issues like tax evasion, money laundering, illicit financing, and lack investor protections.

Stablecoins assert full backing by reserves and promise the efficiency of digital tokens with traditional money's stability. However, doubts persist about compliance with these claims, potential investments in riskier assets, and political tensions surrounding regulation, especially between the United States' light-touch approach and stricter rules elsewhere. Risks such as massive runs on stablecoins due to doubts about collateral or liquidity remain significant, and a shift of deposits from traditional banks to stablecoins raises concerns about the future of bank lending.

Despite these challenges, stablecoins meet a real demand for faster, cheaper, and programmable payment systems. Three competing digital currency models aim to serve this market: decentralized cryptocurrencies, privately issued corporate currencies, and state-guaranteed digital fiat currencies. The latter may be implemented through public-private partnerships or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), with key principles including inclusiveness, low cost, API openness for innovation, privacy protection, avoidance of disintermediation, and insured deposit status with holding limits.

Public oversight, prudential regulation, and accountability are crucial to ensure innovation strengthens economic fundamentals and prevents financial instability. Unsecured tokens and loosely regulated stablecoins must be curtailed before they integrate into the shadow banking system. The future of money should balance private innovation with public purpose, aiming for digital currencies that serve society rather than perpetuate risky speculation.

DRAM需求強勁 力積電高喊：精進代工製程邁開大步

Yahoo Finance | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption

PSMC (Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation) announced a major strategic move driven by strong DRAM demand amid a booming memory market intensified by AI applications. The company signed an exclusive Letter of Intent (LOI) with U.S. memory giant Micron Technology to sell its Tongluo P5 12-inch wafer fab for US$1.8 billion in cash. The transaction is expected to complete in the second quarter of 2026 after regulatory approvals. This sale will significantly improve PSMC’s financial structure and allow Micron to expand its DRAM capacity in Taiwan by integrating Tongluo fab into its operations, complementing its existing Taichung fab.

Under the cooperation agreement, Micron will also assist PSMC in advancing its niche DRAM process technology at PSMC’s Hsinchu P3 fab, enabling PSMC to enhance its DRAM foundry process capabilities. The collaboration aims to strengthen PSMC's position in the AI supply chain by focusing on advanced packaging technologies such as wafer-on-wafer (WoW) 3D stacking, interposers, and other materials critical for AI-memory products. After certification, PSMC will be included in Micron’s DRAM advanced packaging supply chain, opening opportunities to serve large memory design companies worldwide.

PSMC currently operates multiple wafer fabs, including three 12-inch and two 8-inch fabs, with monthly capacities exceeding 100,000 wafers. The Tongluo fab, commissioned in May 2024 but underutilized at about 20% capacity, is being divested as part of PSMC’s strategic focus shift toward AI-application-specific products like 3D AI DRAM, silicon interposers, power management ICs, and power devices. This move helps PSMC optimize its operational structure while leveraging Micron’s expertise and resources.

The memory sector has seen a strong positive market reaction to this deal and growing DRAM demand, with stocks like PSMC, Nanya Technology, and Winbond hitting new highs. Market analysts expect memory prices and demand to remain elevated into 2027 due to AI-driven AI-data processing requirements, fueling continued growth momentum in the semiconductor memory industry. PSMC clarified that negotiations regarding possible licensing of Micron’s 1y-nanometer DRAM technology remain ongoing and not finalized.