Taiwan

超級央行周來了 美日英台等國利率估不變

United Daily News | Local Language | News | June 16, 2025 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

"Super Central Bank Week" is set to begin, with interest rate decisions from over 10 major countries including the U.S., Japan, Britain, Taiwan, and Switzerland expected to remain unchanged. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to announce its decision on June 18 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Analysts anticipate that the Fed will hold rates steady while focusing on potential implications of recent geopolitical tensions and domestic economic indicators.

Concerns are rising regarding the impact of Israel's recent military actions against Iran, which may affect inflation expectations and delay any rate cuts. Increased oil prices following the conflict have raised the risk of market shocks, prompting the Fed to approach future rate decisions carefully. Despite some recent easing in inflation data, there remain uncertainties stemming from trade tensions and employment trends.

In Taiwan, the central bank's board of directors will convene on June 19, with key topics including currency fluctuations, U.S. monetary policy, economic outlook, and actions against housing speculation. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated significantly this year, making it one of the strongest Asian currencies. Recent estimates predict Taiwan's economic growth rate for 2025 will be revised to 3.1%, while the consumer price index is expected to fall to 1.88%, the lowest in five years, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy by the central bank.

供應鏈韌性峰會 美智庫建議G7改T7

Liberty Times Net | Local Language | News | June 16, 2025 | Supply Chain Issues

The 2025 International Summit Forum, organized by the Center for Science, Technology, Democracy and Society (DSET), addressed supply chain resilience strategies, focusing on areas like semiconductors, AI, energy security, and drones. Stephen Yates, a senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation, proposed shifting from the G7 to a T7 format, suggesting that "T can also represent Taiwan" to highlight the nation's crucial role in semiconductor production.

Experts from various countries, including the US, Europe, and South Korea, participated in discussions aimed at addressing the challenges posed by China's influence over international organizations. Ye Wanghui from the Heritage Foundation advocated for an alliance centered around semiconductor supply chains, emphasizing the need for a democratic response to ensure security in related areas such as rare earths. DSET's CEO, Zhang Zhicheng, stressed the importance of maintaining Taiwan's technological status in light of geopolitical pressures and urged strengthened export controls to protect key technologies.

Various representatives also shared their countries' strategies for securing semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. Suzuki Ichiro from Japan highlighted the need for collaborative networks to enhance production resilience during crises, while Seo Jung-min of South Korea outlined regulations and financial measures to maintain supply chain stability. Jimmy Goodrich from the Rand Corporation pointed out that China's market actions present unfair competition, calling for a focus on enhancing semiconductor security in collaboration with allies. Wu Chengwen from Taiwan emphasized the country's strong semiconductor production capabilities and the potential for industry collaboration to promote global stability.

誰依靠誰？謝金河揭海關進出口統計數據端倪：兩岸貿易集中這產業

The China Post | Local Language | News | June 16, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

Hsieh Chin-ho, Chairman of Caixin Media, analyzed customs import and export statistics in a recent statement, highlighting that mainland China increasingly relies on Taiwan, particularly in the realm of AI, information and communication products, and electronic components, which are primarily semiconductors. He cautioned that the heavy concentration of Taiwan's industrial exports poses a significant risk. Furthermore, Hsieh noted the marginalization of Formosa Plastics Group and commented on China's use of fruit and fishery exports as a political tactic, deeming their actual impact on Taiwan to be minimal.

Hsieh pointed out that the Ministry of Finance's customs data serves as an essential indicator of economic trends when combined with export order data from the Ministry of Economic Affairs. He reported that, impacted by Trump's tariffs, Taiwan's exports reached a historic high of over $51 billion in May, and cumulative exports for the first five months of the year suggest growth could exceed $550 billion. This figure represents a doubling of exports since President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016. In May, exports to the U.S. accounted for 30% while those to China and Hong Kong comprised 27.2%, reflecting a significant shift in Taiwan's export market dynamics.

The report revealed a sharp increase in the exports of information and communication products, which rose 111.1% year-on-year, and semiconductor exports, which grew 28.4% year-on-year. Together, these categories made up 71.69% of Taiwan's total exports, underscoring the nation’s emergence as a vital player in the semiconductor and tech sectors. However, Hsieh warned that this strong reliance on specific industries could be perilous for Taiwan's economic stability.

Hsieh further illustrated the dependence on exports to China and Hong Kong, where electronic components, particularly semiconductors, made up a substantial majority of these exports. He pointed out that this dependence has been a recurring theme in political rhetoric, particularly regarding cross-strait relations. Notably, he observed that despite the political discourse surrounding the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), a limited variety of products, such as plastics and machinery, are exported to China, raising questions about Taiwan's export dependency. He concluded with the rhetorical question, "Who relies on whom?" emphasizing the complexity of cross-strait economic ties.