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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Politics | (Parliamentary gridlock duration ↑ → Legislative throughput rate ↓ → Policy-uncertainty index deviation ↑ → Investor political-risk premium ↑ → FDI project postponement count ↑) | Heightened policy uncertainty and risk premiums prompt multinational firms to defer FDI projects. |
| Politics | (Judicial intervention in electoral disputes ↑ → Separation-of-powers design tension ↑ → Regulatory-volatility index ↑ → Regulatory-approval lead time (days) ↑ → Ease-of-doing-business percentile ↓) | Increased regulatory volatility and longer approval times weaken India’s ease-of-doing-business ranking. |
| Governance & Law | (Public-trust in elections index ↓ → Sovereign governance-risk spread ↑ → Sovereign-credit-rating momentum ↓ → Foreign direct investment net inflow (% GDP) ↓) | Eroding electoral trust widens sovereign risk spreads and dampens FDI inflows as investors pull back. |
| Social Cohesion | (Media-polarisation score ↑ → Misinformation exposure rate ↑ → Protest frequency & size (pre-election) ↑ → Intergroup conflict incidence ↑ → Democratic-backsliding score ↑) | Rising polarization and misinformation fuel larger pre-election protests and intergroup clashes, signaling democratic backsliding. |
| Competitiveness | (Ease-of-doing-business percentile ↓ → Business-confidence diffusion index ↓ → Private fixed-investment growth deviation ↓ → Labour productivity growth (non-farm) ↓) | Lower ease-of-doing-business scores depress business confidence, shrink private investment growth, and slow non-farm productivity. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Policy alignment key to unlocking private investment, says Sanjiv Bajaj, CII
Hindu Business Line | English | News | Dec. 5, 2025 | Regulation
Sanjiv Bajaj, Chairman and Managing Director of Bajaj Finserv Ltd and Chairman of the CII Corporate Governance Council, emphasizes that India’s future economic growth depends on policy alignment rather than just incentives. He highlights the need for coordination between customs duties, FTAs, and PLI schemes alongside state-level reforms on land, labour, power, and water. Bajaj proposes establishing a GST-style statutory body to resolve Centre-State issues related to these factors, which would accelerate business implementations and expansions. He stresses that predictable and coherent policies are essential for reviving export confidence and attracting long-term foreign direct investment.
Bajaj notes that while India has witnessed some success with FTAs, like with the UAE, trade deficits remain with countries such as Japan, ASEAN, and Russia. He advocates for a medium-term strategic approach aligning FTAs with custom duties and domestic incentive schemes to create a 10-20 year growth roadmap. Labour reforms, particularly the adoption of the four Labour Codes by states, are another critical area. Bajaj believes these codes improve worker compensation, safety, gender equality, and recognition of gig workers, reducing regulatory complexities compared to previous laws, which should positively impact the economy once implemented thoroughly.
Discussing private investment and consumption, Bajaj credits the government for maintaining fiscal discipline, controlling inflation, investing in public infrastructure, and managing interest rates, which have supported India’s growth to nearly a $4 trillion economy. However, he identifies a confidence gap in the private sector delaying capital expenditure due to external factors like global tariff wars affecting exports and supply chains. He calls for aligned policies and stable business environments to boost private investment and wage growth, which in turn will drive mass consumption.
Bajaj also highlights the growth in commercial real estate fueled by global companies establishing operations in India, as well as manufacturing sectors like motorcycles and electronics showing export strength despite recent challenges. He stresses the importance of channeling both foreign and domestic capital towards long-term growth, emphasizing the significant domestic savings mobilized through mutual funds and the stock market. Bajaj warns that reliance solely on foreign capital could lead to economic setbacks seen in other regions.
Before the upcoming budget, Bajaj advises the government to focus on policy alignment across customs, FTAs, PLIs, and state-level factor reforms. He underscores the need for improved ease of living, urban cleanliness, and infrastructure to enhance the quality of life and business environment. On currency matters, he approves RBI’s measured approach to rupee volatility, viewing a weaker rupee as a necessary phase to strengthen exports and economic competitiveness over time.
Cyclone Ditwah: IMD predicts more rain in TN, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh heavy showers batter Chennai, Tiruvallur
Livemint | English | News | Dec. 5, 2025 | Extreme Weather Events
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a weather warning predicting isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on 3 December over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema. This comes after a week of persistent rainfall in the region. The weather system, a remnant of Cyclone Ditwah, weakened from a depression into a well-marked low-pressure area and is moving southwestward across north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The IMD expects it to further weaken within 24 hours.
The heavy rains have significantly impacted Tamil Nadu, especially in Chennai, Tiruvallur, Chengalpattu, and Kancheepuram districts, causing sudden inundation. Residents in Chennai neighborhoods like Nungambakkam and Perambur have faced knee-deep water. Other districts such as Villupuram, Cuddalore, Tiruvannamalai, and Ramanathapuram also experienced heavy rain and flooding. Emergency services used boats to rescue stranded individuals in Chennai, and relief efforts include over 200 camps providing food and shelter to displaced families.
Authorities have declared holidays for schools and colleges in multiple districts to manage safety. A Red Alert was issued for Tiruvallur, Chennai, Kancheepuram, and Chengalpattu, warning of heavy rainfall exceeding 15 mm per hour, thunderstorms, and winds up to 40-60 kmph. Fishing operations are suspended in affected coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, the Gulf of Mannar, and the Comorin region until further notice.
Labour codes likely to be fully operational from April 1, 2026, Govt to pre-publish draft rules soon
The Hindu | English | News | Dec. 5, 2025 | Regulation
The four labour codes—Code on Wages, 2019; Industrial Relations Code, 2020; Code on Social Security, 2020; and Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code, 2020—are expected to be fully operational from April 1, 2026. The Ministry of Labour and Employment has started the process of enforcing rules under these codes, which were notified on November 21. The draft rules will be pre-published soon for public feedback before final notification.
The government will allow 45 days for public comments on the draft rules, after which they will finalize and notify them. Labour & Employment Minister Mansukh Mandaviya emphasized that the new labour codes maintain the standard working hours at 8 hours per day, replacing 29 fragmented laws with a unified modern framework. The codes also incorporate provisions for overtime as per international practices.
The ministry aims to extend social security coverage to 100 crore workers by March 2026, up from the current 94 crore, with coverage having increased from 19% in 2015 to over 64% in 2025. Since labour is a concurrent subject, both Central and State governments must notify rules under the codes to ensure nationwide enforcement.
Key features of the labour codes highlighted include mandatory appointment letters, free health check-ups for workers aged 40 and above, equal pay for equal work, and equal opportunities for women to work in different shifts. The full enforcement of these codes is expected to broaden worker protection, improve ease of doing business, and promote a pro-worker labour ecosystem.
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