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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
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'Going to have a good deal': Trump on India-US trade deal, says has "great respect" for PM Modi
The Economic Times | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers
US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), stating that the two countries are "going to have a good deal." He praised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a close friend and a respected leader during an interview with Moneycontrol following his address at the 56th Annual Summit of the World Economic Forum.
India's Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal indicated that the first tranche of the BTA is "very near," though he did not provide a specific timeline. The agreement, formally proposed in February 2025, aims to more than double bilateral trade between India and the US from USD 191 billion to USD 500 billion by 2030.
The trade talks were initiated during Prime Minister Modi's visit to Washington in February 2025. The Ministry of External Affairs confirmed that since February 2025, both countries have conducted multiple negotiation rounds to reach a balanced and mutually beneficial agreement, with several occasions where they were close to finalizing the deal.
'New Delhi bent on weaponising water'
Express Tribune | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
The Ministry of Water Resources informed Pakistan's National Assembly that India unilaterally suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in April 2025 following a militant attack in held Kashmir. This suspension has led to a significant reduction in water flow in the Chenab River, threatening approximately 1.45 million acres of agricultural land under the Upper Chenab Canal and an additional 3.19 million acres under the Chenab Canal. The lowered water availability is expected to severely impact agriculture and livelihoods dependent on these river systems.
India has not responded to concerns raised by Pakistan and United Nations experts regarding this suspension, despite a December 16, 2026 deadline set by the UN for India to explain its actions. A UN report released in December 2025 warned that any disruption of the treaty might severely affect millions of people in Pakistan who rely on the Indus River system for drinking water, agriculture, and food security.
Hydrological data from December 2025 revealed an extraordinary reduction in the Chenab River flow, with measurements dropping well below historical minimums. Satellite imagery showed significant changes in reservoir surface area at Baglihar during this period, indicating alterations in water storage or flow. Pakistan formally sought explanations from India over this unusual water reduction, highlighting growing tensions over water-sharing and resource management under the treaty.
Supreme Court Rules on Taxability of Capital Gains in India – Denies Mauritius Tax Treaty Benefits and GAAR Grandfathering Protection
AZB & Partners | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 23, 2026 | Regulation
On January 15, 2026, the Supreme Court of India ruled against the Mauritian investment entities of Tiger Global regarding their claim for tax treaty benefits on capital gains from their 2018 sale of Flipkart shares to the Walmart Group. The court emphasized the principle of ‘substance over form’ in the post-GAAR framework introduced in India's Income-tax Act from April 1, 2017.
Tiger Global's Mauritian entities had argued that their gains were tax-exempt under the India-Mauritius DTAA. However, the Supreme Court clarified that DTAA benefits apply only when the transaction is taxable in the non-resident state and rejected the claim for indirect transfer exemptions under Article 13(4) of the DTAA. It was highlighted that the Tax Residency Certificate (TRC) alone does not guarantee treaty benefits, as Indian tax authorities can assess commercial substance beyond the certificate.
The court overturned earlier authorities granting conclusive status to TRCs before GAAR's introduction and established that treaty interpretation must align with domestic anti-abuse laws. GAAR provisions apply even to gains realized after April 1, 2017, regardless of when the original investment was made, and arrangements primarily aimed at tax avoidance without commercial substance can be challenged under GAAR or JAAR.
The Supreme Court found the Tiger Global structure to be prima facie tax-driven, thereby denying DTAA benefits. This judgment underscores heightened scrutiny on treaty benefits and reinforces that substance will prevail over form in tax matters involving cross-border capital gains in India.
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