India

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Key Developments in India’s Budget 2026: Rural Growth, FMCG Demand, and Agricultural Modernization
Jan. 15, 2026 | Macroeconomics & Growth

Stakeholders emphasize targeted fiscal and policy measures in India’s Union Budget 2026 to sustain consumption growth, bolster rural development, and modernize agriculture.

The fast-moving consumer goods industry urges the government to maintain consumption growth and advance rural development through increased capital expenditure on infrastructure, targeted tax reforms—including reducing GST on mass-consumption home care products from 18 percent to 5 percent—and policies that foster entrepreneurship, domestic manufacturing, innovation, and secure strategic supply chains.

**Rural demand for FMCG products has outpaced urban consumption for nearly seven consecutive quarters, making rural-focused development measures crucial.**
Industry leaders expect the full benefits of GST 2.0 implementation to materialize in the March quarter of 2026, potentially driving further growth in household consumption beyond urban centers.

**Private consumption accounts for more than 56 percent of India’s GDP, according to FICCI’s pre-budget memorandum, so trends in household spending directly influence economic performance.**
Facing inflationary pressures and monsoon variability, the FMCG sector calls for enhanced agricultural and dairy infrastructure and accelerated adoption of modern technologies in rural markets to stabilize supply and demand.

**Agriculture employs about 46 percent of India’s workforce but contributes only 15 percent to GDP, reflecting persistent low productivity.**
Small landholdings (86 percent classified as marginal and small), irrigation coverage on roughly half of cultivated land, crop yields below global benchmarks, and limited market access for small farmers all constrain output. Existing government measures—direct financial aid, expanded market linkages, crop insurance, and credit provision—have improved conditions but require sustained policy focus and structural reforms for medium- and long-term growth.

**Budgetary allocations for agriculture rose to an average of 3 percent of total expenditure in FY21–25, up from 1.7 percent in FY11–15, yet research and development funding has stalled at about 0.2 percent.**
The FMCG industry urges the government to prioritize productivity enhancements by broadening technology adoption, boosting R&D in climate-resilient agriculture, and implementing targeted measures to reduce post-harvest losses, which currently range between 15 percent and 20 percent.

**High-value agri-allied sectors such as fisheries and livestock delivered compound annual growth rates of 8 percent and 6 percent respectively during FY20–24, offering significant potential to increase rural incomes and labor productivity.**
Agri-processing—which represents about 12 percent of organized employment—requires further investment in transportation and storage infrastructure. Agricultural exports account for approximately 12 percent of India’s goods exports and grew at a 6 percent CAGR from FY21–25, with emerging segments like horticulture and floriculture presenting new opportunities.

**While deep-rooted structural issues limit the feasibility of sweeping reforms, stakeholders believe that incremental changes—particularly a stronger emphasis on R&D and support for entry into high-value segments—can meaningfully raise farmer incomes, narrow rural-urban income disparities, and strengthen India’s agricultural economy in line with the vision of a Viksit Bharat.**
Silver and Gold Rally to All-Time Highs Amid Global Uncertainty
Jan. 15, 2026 | Financial System

Surging investor demand and global uncertainties have propelled silver and gold to unprecedented price levels.

**Silver climbed to a record above $88 an ounce and later topped $90 by January 14, 2026.**
Gold spot prices reached $4,625 an ounce, with March futures at $4,635.29. US gold futures rose 0.5% to $4,624 an ounce, while spot gold traded at $4,615.85. In Mumbai, silver spot surged to ₹263,062 per kilogram, MCX March futures hit ₹279,419 and the intraday high reached ₹281,649. Gold in Mumbai closed at ₹140,284 per 10 grams, and February MCX futures traded at ₹142,858, with February contracts up 0.36% at ₹142,760.

**These gains reflect several key factors.**
Softer-than-expected US inflation data, with the core Consumer Price Index rising 0.2% month-on-month against forecasts of 0.3%, bolstered expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Escalating geopolitical tensions—particularly the crisis in Iran and widespread civil unrest—have driven investors toward safe havens. US political developments, including President Trump’s calls for rate cuts, heightened scrutiny of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and anticipation of a Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs, have further supported precious-metals demand.

**Tightening inventories amid robust industrial and investment demand have reinforced silver’s upward momentum.**
In the jewellery sector, observers report a 20–30% rise in demand for lightweight gold pieces driven by wedding and festive purchases. Consumers are increasingly treating both metals as stores of value during uncertain times.

**Analysts point to key technical levels and outlooks for further movement.**
After gold broke through the $4,570 resistance, projections now target $4,745–4,750 and a longer range of $4,966–4,970. Silver appears set to challenge $88–$93 an ounce, with strong support at $70. On the MCX, analysts cite gold support around ₹141,700 and upside targets of ₹143,000 to ₹144,200. Silver buying ranges center on ₹266,000–₹272,000, aiming for ₹280,000–₹285,000.

**Other precious metals have also gained ground.**
Platinum traded at $2,388.50 and palladium at $1,919.50 an ounce. Year-to-date through early 2026, gold has appreciated by 7%, white precious metals by over 24%, and platinum and palladium by more than 16.5%.

**In major Indian cities, retail gold prices vary by carat and location, generally ranging between ₹106,000 and ₹114,500 per 8 grams.**

Monitored Intelligence for India - Jan. 16, 2026


News
Media
170

Government
Releases
4

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0

Embassy
Releases
2
Foreign
Service
Advisories
0
Academic/
Think
Tank
6


Podcasts
0


Videos
0

Social
Media
0

Business
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0

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Deal: Trilegal advises Japan’s Mynavi on Virohan’s Series B fundraise

Trilegal | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 16, 2026 | UndeterminedBizdev-Partnering

Trilegal advised Mynavi Corporation on its investment in Virohan Private Limited as part of Virohan’s ongoing Series B funding round. Mynavi acted as the lead investor, with participation from Virohan’s existing backers including Blume Ventures, Rebright Partners, Bharat Inclusive Technologies, and several angel investors. The Trilegal Corporate Team was led by Partner Abhishek Dubey, supported by Senior Associate Sarthak Sood and Associate Sagnik Sarkar.

Virohan is a healthcare edtech company partnering with higher education institutions to offer undergraduate programs in allied healthcare, nursing, and healthcare management. Its academic partners include universities such as UPES, BBD University, CMR University, Assam Don Bosco University, MIT University Shillong, and GH Raisoni University. Virohan also collaborates with employers like Medanta, Dr. Lal PathLabs, Healthians, and Lenskart to align curricula with industry needs and establish direct hiring pipelines.

Trilegal is a leading full-service Indian law firm with over 25 years of experience and more than 1,200 professionals across cities including Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Gurugram. The firm is recognized for its expertise and client-centric approach, having received numerous accolades such as Best Overall Law Firm by India Business Law Journal in 2025 and M&A Firm of the Year by IFLR Asia-Pacific in 2024.

Telcos approach TRAI to intervene on Navi Mumbai airport issue

Hindu Business Line | English | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | Regulation

Telecom service providers represented by the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), including Bharti Airtel, Reliance Jio, and Vodafone-Idea, have sought intervention from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) regarding connectivity issues at the Navi Mumbai International Airport Limited (NMIAL). COAI alleges that NMIAL has denied Right of Way (RoW) permissions needed to install 4G/5G infrastructure, resulting in poor connectivity and fostering a monopolistic environment with high fees for shared infrastructure.

The telcos are requesting TRAI to examine NMIAL’s conduct and implement a cost-based pricing framework with price ceilings for in-building telecom infrastructure where a single entity monopolizes access, such as airports and metro stations. They stress the importance of TRAI's involvement to prevent similar structural issues from spreading to other public infrastructure, which could harm competition and consumer experience.

COAI also urges TRAI to ensure public entities grant RoW permissions to licensed TSPs on a non-discriminatory basis or that shared infrastructure is provided on regulated, transparent, and cost-oriented terms. They highlight misleading public statements made by NMIAL about network coverage and seek guidance to prevent misattribution of blame to TSPs when RoW denial is the underlying issue. The letter stresses that exclusive RoW arrangements or monopolistic control over telecom infrastructure contradict the Telecommunications Act, 2023, and can lead to rent-seeking behaviors, delays in network deployment, and consumer harm.

Draft Labour Rules: A Step Forward Towards Implementation

Obhan & Associates | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 16, 2026 | Regulation

On December 31, 2025, India’s Ministry of Labour and Employment released draft rules for implementing four major labour codes: the Code on Wages, Industrial Relations Code, Social Security Code, and Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code. These draft rules provide procedural clarity on administering key provisions related to wages, industrial relations, social security, and workplace safety, and the Ministry has invited stakeholder feedback before finalization.

The Draft Code on Wages Rules aim to replace 18 existing central labour laws related to wage payments, bonuses, and minimum wages. Key provisions include methods for calculating minimum wages based on basic family needs, detailed wage payment and deduction procedures, mandatory display of notices about fines, and requirements for issuing wage slips and maintaining records.

The Draft Industrial Relations Code Rules replace two existing rules and emphasize strengthening grievance redressal, collective bargaining, and dispute resolution mechanisms. Industrial establishments with 20 or more workers must form grievance committees, unions have defined negotiation rights lasting three years, and employers must notify workers of service condition changes. The rules promote transparency and formalize arbitration procedures for industrial disputes.

The Draft Social Security Code Rules replace 12 central labour rules and expand social security coverage to gig, platform, and unorganized workers. Eligibility criteria for gig workers under social security schemes are clarified, including registration requirements via Aadhaar or self-declaration. A National Social Security Board will oversee welfare efforts, and establishments must register on the Shram Suvidha Portal to ensure compliance.

The Draft Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code Rules consolidate 13 rules to strengthen workplace safety. Employers must conduct annual health checkups for employees over 40, issue detailed appointment letters, observe a 48-hour maximum workweek, and provide travel allowances and a helpline for interstate migrant workers. Employees are required to report unsafe conditions through specified channels to enhance workplace safety.

While these draft rules represent a significant reform step, their effective implementation depends on corresponding state-level rules, as labour falls under the Concurrent List of the Indian Constitution. Since several states, including West Bengal, have not issued their draft rules, enforcement is expected to be phased and uneven across different regions.

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