India

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Reinstatement of GRAP-IV as Air Quality in Delhi-NCR Returns to Severe Levels

Jan. 19, 2026 | Environment

Delhi and its National Capital Region face a severe air pollution crisis that has prompted the reinstatement of emergency measures.

**The Commission for Air Quality Management reinstated Graded Response Action Plan Stage IV across Delhi and the NCR on January 17, 2026, after air quality dipped back into the ‘severe’ category.**
Authorities had applied Stage III for just one day before escalating restrictions, marking the first return to Stage IV in the new year after lifting it in late December 2025, amid several months of persistently high pollution levels.

**GRAP defines four stages by Air Quality Index ranges: Stage I for ‘poor’ air (201–300 AQI), Stage II for ‘very poor’ (301–400), Stage III for ‘severe’ (401–450), and Stage IV for ‘severe+’ when AQI exceeds 450.**
The revised GRAP issued on November 21, 2025, mandates that all measures from earlier stages stay in effect once a higher stage is declared.

**Under Stage IV, authorities restrict private vehicle movement according to emission standards rather than imposing a full ban.**
Only vehicles that meet prescribed emission benchmarks may operate; BS-III petrol and BS-IV diesel vehicles must remain off the road except for emergency services and essential-goods transport. All Delhi fuel stations must verify valid Pollution Under Control Certificates—either through physical documents or electronic systems such as VAHAN—before dispensing petrol, diesel, or CNG, and drivers face penalties for refueling without a current PUCC, though emergency and essential-service vehicles are exempt.

**The order extends to out-of-state vehicles: any non-Delhi vehicle that fails to meet BS-VI norms may not enter city limits unless it runs on CNG or electricity, serves public transport, or carries essential goods or services.**
Trucks carrying construction materials—sand, bricks, cement, debris—are strictly barred from Delhi and may be penalized or have their vehicles seized if they attempt entry.

**A western disturbance, weak winds, a stable atmospheric layer and poor pollutant dispersion combined to drive the recent air quality decline.**
A concurrent cold wave has brought overnight lows below 5 °C at several sites—including 4.4 °C at Safdarjung and 4.9 °C at Ayanagar—while the India Meteorological Department issued a red alert for dense fog across most of Delhi until 8:15 AM and forecast foggy conditions over northwest India and Bihar for three to four days. Visibility at Indira Gandhi International Airport dropped to 350 metres, raising the prospect of flight delays, and Skymet Weather predicted light winter rainfall with temperatures gradually rebounding through January 20.

**Over the latest 24 hours, Delhi recorded an average AQI of 437 (‘severe’), with 31 of 37 monitoring stations reporting severe-level readings.**
Anand Vihar registered the highest figure at 489 (‘severe+’), while Ashok Vihar (463), Bawana (467), Chandni Chowk (464) and Punjabi Bagh (476) all fell into the severe range. Morning measurements on January 18 showed an AQI of 439 at 7 a.m., up from 432 at 10 p.m. the previous evening, leaving conditions hazardous for children, the elderly and anyone with respiratory or cardiovascular conditions.

Standoff Deepens Over Detention of Indian Crew Aboard MT Valiant Roar in Iran

Jan. 19, 2026 | Geopolitics & Defense

Tensions are rising between India and Iran over access to 16 Indian seafarers detained aboard the MT Valiant Roar since December 8, 2025.

**On January 17, 2026, the Indian Embassy in Tehran formally asked Iranian authorities to grant consular access to the crew intercepted near Dibba port off Dubai in international waters.**
Despite repeated diplomatic notes and high-level engagements, Iran has refused to allow Indian officials to visit the detained seafarers or facilitate their communication with families.

**Initial outreach began on December 14, 2025, through the Indian Consulate in Bandar Abbas.**
The embassy then enlisted the Indian Ambassador in Tehran and coordinated with Glory International FZ LLC / Prime Tankers LLC, the vessel’s UAE-based owner. It has dispatched official correspondence and held direct talks with Iranian naval and port authorities, yet the detainees remain beyond consular reach.

**To address immediate welfare concerns, the embassy arranged emergency shipments of food, water, and fuel to the MT Valiant Roar, coordinating with elements of the Iranian navy and local maritime agents.**
Meanwhile, the ship-owner’s Iran-based agents are working to secure legal representation for the crew in the upcoming Iranian judicial proceedings.

**Family members have petitioned the Delhi High Court, urging the government to secure consular access, expedite investigations, and facilitate repatriation of the seafarers.**
On January 16, 2026, the court issued a notice to the Union government and scheduled a hearing for January 21. Individual appeals, including one from the family of Third Engineer Ketan Mehta, have reached Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

**Iranian authorities accuse the MT Valiant Roar’s crew of smuggling roughly 6,000 metric tonnes of diesel, whereas the vessel’s documentation lists Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) as its cargo.**
Iranian courts will now adjudicate these smuggling allegations.

**Indian officials continue to press for timely consular access, swift judicial resolution, and the protection of the detained crew’s rights and welfare throughout ongoing diplomatic and legal efforts.**

Monitored Intelligence for India - Jan. 19, 2026

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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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PM Modi at Malda rally: People of India, especially Gen Z, have reposed faith in BJP’s development model

The Hindu | English | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | UndeterminedPolitics and Elections

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking at a rally in Malda on January 17, 2026, stated that the people of India, particularly Generation Z, have placed their trust in the BJP’s development model. He criticized the Trinamool Congress (TMC) government in West Bengal for allegedly facilitating large-scale infiltration that changed the state’s demographics, triggered riots in districts like Malda and Murshidabad, and thrived due to the ruling party’s patronage and syndicate system.

PM Modi reassured refugees such as the Matuas, who fled religious persecution and sought shelter in India, amid concerns over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise. He emphasized that infiltration is a significant challenge for Bengal, noting that even affluent countries are actively removing illegal migrants and asserting that Bengal must do the same. He linked recent violence in the state to this issue.

At the rally, Modi congratulated West Bengal for receiving India’s first Vande Bharat sleeper train along with four new Amrit Bharat trains. He pledged efforts to provide pucca houses and clean drinking water to all homeless people in Bengal. Modi accused the TMC government of looting public funds, obstructing central aid, and said that Bengal’s development depends on the defeat of the TMC and the rise of the BJP, predicting an overwhelming mandate for the party in the upcoming Assembly elections.

Modi criticized the TMC for its “hooliganism and politics of threats” and expressed confidence that this would end soon. He highlighted that West Bengal is surrounded by BJP-ruled states known for good governance and asserted that it is now Bengal’s turn to experience the same. He coined the election slogan “Paltano darkar, chai BJP sarkar” (Need to change, want BJP Government) to rally support for the BJP in the state.

Republic Day terror threat? Khalistani, Bangladeshi outfits may target Delhi, other cities: Report

Livemint | English | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | Terrorism

Intelligence agencies have issued a terror alert ahead of Republic Day on January 26, warning of potential attacks by Khalistani terrorist organizations and Bangladesh-based terror outfits targeting Delhi and several other cities. Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan have been placed on high alert as these regions are considered vulnerable.

The alert highlights that Punjab-based gangsters are increasingly being used by Khalistani radicals operating from abroad as foot soldiers, employing criminal networks to further their agendas and disrupt internal security. These gangsters are active across the mentioned states and are reportedly building links with Khalistani terrorist elements.

In response, the North District Police conducted multiple simulated mock drills during the first half of January 2026 at sensitive and crowded locations in North Delhi such as Red Fort, ISBT Kashmere Gate, Chandni Chowk, Khari Baoli, Sadar Bazar, and several metro stations. These drills aim to strengthen anti-terror measures and improve the readiness of security agencies and the public for potential terror incidents.

The Republic Day Parade will feature at least 30 tableaux on Kartavya Path, showcasing India's cultural heritage and developmental achievements under themes celebrating freedom and prosperity, marking 150 years of the national song "Vande Mataram."

Surging credit markets prompt complacency warning

Hindu Business Line | English | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | UndeterminedFinancial System Problems

Global credit markets are experiencing their strongest rally in two decades, with yield premiums on corporate debt dropping to levels not seen since June 2007. This surge reflects confidence in the economic outlook, leading to heightened demand for new bond issuances, which have attracted more than four times the orders compared to available supply. Notably, US companies are issuing new bonds with yields just marginally higher than existing ones, indicating a very tight new issue concession.

Despite the strong fundamentals, prominent investment managers including Aberdeen Investments and Pimco warn of complacency and heightened risks. These include geopolitical tensions, unpredictable US policies, and risks of undisclosed debt, similar to those underlying recent corporate failures. Barclays signals a 93% risk complacency in the US debt market, the highest since December 2024, driven by bullish equity positioning and reduced volatility in high-yield returns.

Many investors continue to pursue the rally, buoyed by expectations of interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as well as an upward revision to the World Bank's global growth forecast to 2.6%. However, concerns remain over the limited margin for error given the tight spreads and potentially destabilizing geopolitical and internal shocks. The Federal Reserve is also under scrutiny, with an ongoing probe regarding its interest rate decisions amid tensions with former US President Donald Trump.

Riskier debt segments, including junk bonds, are similarly experiencing record-low yield premiums, prompting managers like Pimco to adopt more selective investment strategies in anticipation of deteriorating fundamentals. Corporate bond issuance has surged, with January 2026 seeing $435 billion raised—a record amount—and large deals such as Goldman Sachs' $16 billion investment-grade debt sale marking strong market activity. Nonetheless, investors remain cautious, balancing the need for returns with the increasing risk environment.

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