India

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

India Expands Rare Earth Magnet Incentives Amid Shifts in Chinese Export Controls
Nov. 4, 2025 | Energy & Natural Resources

The global rare earth magnet industry is at a turning point as India moves to expand its domestic manufacturing incentives amid shifts in China’s export controls.

**India plans to boost its rare earth magnet manufacturing incentive program to over Rs 7,000 crore (about $788 million), up from an earlier proposal of $290 million, pending cabinet approval.**
The enlarged initiative aims to build domestic capacity in a sector vital for electric vehicles, renewable energy generation, and defense applications.

**Currently, China processes roughly 90 percent of global rare earth magnets.**
In April, Beijing tightened export controls on these materials during its trade dispute with the United States, disrupting supply chains and hitting automakers hard. India’s decision to scale up incentives aligns with an international drive to reduce reliance on Chinese-controlled critical minerals.

**Despite these ambitions, the program faces hurdles: limited domestic funding, a shortage of specialized technical expertise, lengthy development timelines, and a processing sector that remains unviable in India without heavy subsidies.**
Most of the necessary know-how remains concentrated in China, prompting state-owned Indian enterprises to seek overseas mining partnerships to secure feedstock.

**Under the proposed scheme, about five domestic companies will receive production-linked incentives and capital subsidies to establish or expand magnet manufacturing facilities.**
China has begun issuing import licenses for rare earth magnets to India, but none of those licenses have yet gone to Indian-origin firms, highlighting continued reliance on external supplies.

**The government is also funding research into alternative motor technologies, such as synchronous reluctance motors, to reduce future dependence on rare earth-based magnets.**
Meanwhile, overseas suppliers have expressed interest in fulfilling India’s projected annual demand of roughly 2,000 tons of rare earth oxides.

**By attracting global magnet manufacturers to set up local operations or joint ventures, India hopes to curb reliance on imported Chinese magnets, which often benefit from opaque subsidies and aggressive pricing.**
However, if China further relaxes export restrictions on rare earth magnets for India, cheaper Chinese products could flood the market and undercut investments in the nascent domestic sector.
Generative AI Providers Intensify Zero-Cost Push in India Amid Market Expansion and Regulatory Scrutiny
Nov. 4, 2025 | Technology & Innovation

India has become a focal point for generative AI providers seeking to capture market share and refine their models.

**Multinational technology firms are offering free access to their latest generative AI (GenAI) models—such as Perplexity, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, and Llama—in India, the world’s second-largest market for these services.**
They aim to capture greater market share and gather Indian contextual data to fine-tune their models. By subsidizing the cost of each AI query, they have deployed their services widely, even though real-time model inference and data storage incur substantial computational expenses.

**This aggressive push coincides with a rapidly expanding GenAI market that grew from USD 0.10 billion in 2020 to USD 0.67 billion in 2024, and analysts forecast it will reach USD 7.81 billion by 2031.**
Strong demand for both general-purpose and specialized AI solutions underpins this growth. While free access from international providers could slow the development of indigenous, broad-based large language models (LLMs), local firms are shifting focus to enterprise-grade and domain-specific offerings—such as BharatGPT—designed to meet local language, regulatory, and sector requirements.

**However, offering zero-cost AI access has disrupted competitive dynamics by driving up customer-acquisition costs for domestic startups and weakening their data pipelines.**
Unlike traditional software, which has minimal marginal distribution costs, each interaction with a GenAI model incurs computing expenses. This disparity has raised questions about the sustainability of zero-price strategies and potential predatory pricing. The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has taken note of these distortions, issuing a report to monitor AI pricing structures, detect price discrimination, and prevent inadvertent monopolies.

**In response to these shifts, experts predict local developers will concentrate on specialized use cases and forge co-development partnerships with industry verticals.**
Although global general-purpose models continue to proliferate, demand for bespoke solutions that address linguistic diversity, domain compliance, and data residency requirements remains strong. Capital providers, government agencies, and enterprise customers have expressed interest in nurturing an AI ecosystem that balances global integration with domestic innovation, but they have yet to outline detailed policies or funding mechanisms beyond CCI monitoring.

Monitored Intelligence for India - Nov. 5, 2025


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Govt can reassess all AGR dues of Vi, says SC

Hindu Business Line | English | News | Nov. 5, 2025 | Regulation

The Supreme Court has clarified that the Union government can reassess and reconcile all adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues of Vodafone-Idea up to the financial year 2016-17, based on the Deduction Verification Guidelines dated February 3, 2020. This clarification followed an oral mention by Vodafone-Idea, which sought a composite reassessment of its total AGR dues rather than only the additional AGR demand initially referenced.

The court had previously, on October 27, left it to the government to reconsider its AGR dues demand in accordance with the law. The government's softened position was attributed to a "huge change in circumstances," including the infusion of a 49 percent equity stake by the government in Vodafone-Idea, linking public interest with the company’s fate.

The Solicitor-General emphasized that any decision regarding Vodafone-Idea would have significant implications for its 20 crore customers, highlighting the issue as within the government's policy domain due to its substantial equity involvement and the wide customer impact.

Direct Tax Quarterly Milestones (July-September 2025)

Trilegal | English | AcademicThink | Nov. 5, 2025 | UndeterminedTaxes

The Supreme Court of India has ruled that Hyatt International Southwest Asia Ltd., a UAE tax resident, has a fixed place permanent establishment (PE) in India under the India-UAE tax treaty. The Court found that Hyatt's Strategic Oversight Services Agreements with Asian Hotels Limited, an Indian company, allowed Hyatt to exercise pervasive control over hotel operations, thus establishing a PE despite no physical office space. The ruling emphasizes a substance-over-form approach and cautions foreign entities providing long-term managerial services in India to reassess their arrangements and documentation to mitigate PE risk.

Separately, the Telangana High Court has set aside proceedings under the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) related to stock market transactions. The case involved a taxpayer offsetting short-term capital losses from listed shares against long-term gains from unlisted shares. The Court held that transactions via stock exchanges do not constitute an impermissible avoidance arrangement and thus do not attract GAAR provisions, affirming the expert committee's position that stock market trades fall outside GAAR's scope. This ruling reinforces that bona fide commercial transactions executed through recognized exchanges are not subject to GAAR.

Supreme Court to examine plea to ban online gaming, betting platforms

The Hindu | English | News | Nov. 5, 2025 | Regulation

The Supreme Court of India has asked the Union government to respond to a petition seeking a ban on online gambling and betting platforms disguised as social and e-sports games. The court will hear the petition on November 5, 2025. The petitioners, represented by advocate Virag Gupta, submitted that details of approximately 2,000 such apps had already been shared with the government, emphasizing the need to protect children from exposure to these platforms.

The plea calls for a coordinated interpretation of the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025, alongside laws enacted by various State legislatures, to prohibit online gambling and betting games operating under false pretenses. Betting and gambling are considered illegal activities in most Indian states, though over 65 crore individuals currently engage in these games, generating an annual revenue exceeding ₹1.8 lakh crore for betting platforms.

The petition also requests the issuance of blocking orders under Section 69A of the IT Act to curb all unlawful betting and gambling platforms nationwide. This move comes amidst concerns over the proliferation of such platforms and their impact on society, particularly on vulnerable groups like children.

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