India

The Hindu | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 21, 2026, that India is set to become the world's third-largest economy in the coming years. Economist Gita Gopinath supported this projection, suggesting the milestone could be reached by 2028 or earlier. Vaishnaw highlighted four pillars driving India’s growth: public investment in physical, digital, and social infrastructure; inclusive societal growth; manufacturing and innovation; and simplification measures. He forecasted India’s growth rate at 6-8% with moderate inflation over the next five years, underpinned by strong technology platforms and inclusive policies that have lifted 250 million people out of poverty.

Both Vaishnaw and Gopinath expressed concern over the potential global impact of high debt levels in wealthy nations, particularly referencing Japan’s recent bond market turmoil. Despite such external risks, they remain confident in India's trajectory toward economic prominence. Gopinath emphasized that the main challenge lies in raising India’s per capita income and achieving long-term development goals by 2047, which will require continued reforms in land acquisition, judicial processes, labor market flexibility, and skill development.

Industrialist Sunil Bharti Mittal echoed the optimistic outlook, noting the importance of a stable and supportive business environment and the growing domestic market. He acknowledged the challenge posed by heightened global competition and the lack of a large foreign market similar to the US for China, stressing the need for India to forge new trade agreements, including with the EU and potentially the US.

Vaishnaw also addressed concerns regarding high US tariffs, emphasizing India’s economic resilience and success in diversifying export markets. He noted India has become an important value chain partner globally, enabling export growth despite protectionist measures elsewhere. Gopinath highlighted pollution as a significant economic and health challenge requiring urgent attention as part of India's developmental agenda.

The Economic Times | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

David Rubenstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, provided insights on the global economic outlook, US-China relations, and India’s economic future during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Despite initial concerns, President Trump’s tariff policies have not triggered the predicted recession or high inflation, with the US economy currently growing at around 3%, unemployment at 4.4%, and inflation below 3%. Rubenstein noted that while Trump’s pro-business stance generally pleases corporate America, not all policies are uniformly supported or implemented, and business leaders adapt to regulatory changes pragmatically.

Rubenstein highlighted the evolving US-China dynamic, acknowledging that despite tariff tensions, China maintains a record trade surplus through increased sales in other markets. He believes Trump and Xi Jinping will continue diplomatic engagements, but neither sees the other as their main problem. Instead, US concerns focus on Russia, Ukraine, the domestic economy, and upcoming midterm elections. The bipartisan continuation of tariffs under President Biden signals a sustained, complex US-China economic competition. Rubenstein emphasized the emergence of a bipolar economic world dominated by the US and China, but predicted that India could become the world’s largest economy within 20 to 30 years due to its young, growing population, in contrast to China’s aging demographic.

Regarding private equity, Rubenstein asserted that despite recent public market strength focused on a few mega-cap stocks, private markets have historically outperformed and remain robust and thriving, especially in India. He noted the growth and increasing competition in India’s private equity and credit markets over the past 25 years, expressing optimism about India’s economic trajectory supported by a capitalist-friendly government. Rubenstein advised Indian policymakers to foster homegrown private investment and encourage the return of Indian talent from abroad to further stimulate growth.

On investment strategy, Rubenstein recommended diversification across public equities, public credit, and private investments, with many US endowments holding 20-30% in private markets. He acknowledged higher expected returns but increased risks in emerging markets, now often termed the Global South. Carlyle balances AI investments with other sectors, recognizing AI as a transformative but still early-stage phenomenon while also identifying value in undervalued industries.

Lastly, Rubenstein addressed global geopolitical risks, expressing skepticism about an imminent Chinese takeover of Taiwan, citing lessons from Ukraine and China's prolonged peace. He emphasized the need for private equity firms to blend youthful innovation with experienced leadership to navigate future challenges. Carlyle plans to continue expanding its presence in India across sectors including credit and infrastructure, fueled by India’s large population and growth potential.

Express Tribune | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

The Ministry of Water Resources informed Pakistan's National Assembly that India unilaterally suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in April 2025 following a militant attack in held Kashmir. This suspension has led to a significant reduction in water flow in the Chenab River, threatening approximately 1.45 million acres of agricultural land under the Upper Chenab Canal and an additional 3.19 million acres under the Chenab Canal. The lowered water availability is expected to severely impact agriculture and livelihoods dependent on these river systems.

India has not responded to concerns raised by Pakistan and United Nations experts regarding this suspension, despite a December 16, 2026 deadline set by the UN for India to explain its actions. A UN report released in December 2025 warned that any disruption of the treaty might severely affect millions of people in Pakistan who rely on the Indus River system for drinking water, agriculture, and food security.

Hydrological data from December 2025 revealed an extraordinary reduction in the Chenab River flow, with measurements dropping well below historical minimums. Satellite imagery showed significant changes in reservoir surface area at Baglihar during this period, indicating alterations in water storage or flow. Pakistan formally sought explanations from India over this unusual water reduction, highlighting growing tensions over water-sharing and resource management under the treaty.