India

The Economic Times | English | News | Jan. 21, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Central banks worldwide continue to accumulate gold amid rising prices, emphasizing gold’s role as a strategic reserve asset during economic and geopolitical uncertainty. India and China have notably reduced their holdings of US Treasuries while increasing gold reserves, signaling a significant shift in reserve management rather than short-term portfolio changes.

India's Reserve Bank (RBI) lowered its US Treasury holdings to about $190 billion by October 2025, a decline of $50.7 billion from the previous year, while increasing gold reserves to 880.18 metric tonnes. Gold now represents 13.6% of India’s foreign exchange reserves, up from 9.3% a year earlier, indicating a deliberate diversification in response to rising fiscal pressures and volatility in advanced economies’ bond markets.

Globally, foreign holdings of US Treasuries have shifted unevenly; countries like Japan, the UK, and others have increased exposure, whereas China, Brazil, India, Hong Kong, and Saudi Arabia have reduced theirs. China’s reduction in US debt reached its lowest level since 2008 at $682.6 billion by November 2025, continuing a long-term trend amid growing concerns about US debt sustainability and geopolitical tensions. Concurrently, China has expanded its gold reserves continually, viewing gold both as a hedge against financial risks and geopolitical vulnerabilities.

The strategies of India and China reflect a broader reassessment of the global financial landscape. Both nations see gold as a safer, non-liability asset providing resilience amid fiscal stress, bond market volatility, and escalating geopolitical risks. Their moves away from US Treasuries toward increased gold holdings represent a structural shift to safeguard future economic stability rather than short-term currency speculation.

The Economic Times | English | News | Jan. 21, 2026 | UndeterminedMergers & Acquisitions

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd, led by Dilip Shanghvi, has submitted a non-binding all-cash offer to acquire US-based Organon, marking its boldest global move. Sun Pharma has arranged $10-14 billion in bridge financing from banks across Wall Street, Europe, and Japan to demonstrate commitment, with due diligence expected to begin soon. Sun’s pursuit of Organon intensified in late 2025, coinciding with Organon’s sale of its postpartum hemorrhage treatment system to Laborie Medical as it refocused on its women’s health biopharma portfolio.

Organon, spun off from Merck Sharp & Dohme in 2021, carries $8.9 billion in debt and has been seeking buyers through Morgan Stanley, facing potential competition from global pharma and private equity firms, though no Indian bidders besides Sun have shown interest. Organon's market cap was $2.28 billion as of early 2026, following stock volatility tied to leadership changes and sales malpractice reports. The company reported $1.60 billion in third-quarter 2025 revenue, with slight revisions to its annual revenue and EBITDA margin guidance.

If completed, this acquisition would be the largest ever by an Indian pharmaceutical company, surpassing Sun’s $4 billion Ranbaxy deal in 2014. Sun Pharma’s FY25 revenue was $6.19 billion with an EBITDA of $1.82 billion, and the combined leverage post-acquisition would reach approximately 2.5 times net debt to EBITDA, offset by substantial cash reserves. The deal aims to enhance Sun Pharma’s innovation capabilities and bolster its US portfolio with specialized women’s healthcare products and biosimilars, addressing previous portfolio gaps.

Organon plans to expand EBITDA and accelerate growth from 2026 onward, continuing its R&D pipeline and maintaining strategic acquisitions. Organon’s legacy includes pioneering research on blockbuster drugs like Merck’s Keytruda. This acquisition aligns with Sun Pharma’s recent moves to strengthen its innovative drug offerings, including prior acquisitions of Checkpoint Therapeutics and Concert Pharma, highlighting a strategic shift towards specialized and branded pharmaceuticals in the US market.

The Economic Times | English | News | Jan. 21, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

China's imports of Russian Urals crude have surged to the highest level since mid-2023, driven largely by a sharp reduction in Indian purchases amid Western sanctions and ahead of the European Union's ban on products derived from Russian oil. Indian refiners, including Reliance Industries, have significantly scaled back their Russian crude imports since December 2025 due to sanctions pressure and the EU's impending restrictions, with Reliance halting imports entirely in January 2026.

The drop in Indian demand has allowed China to increase its intake of discounted Russian crude, offsetting losses in Venezuelan oil supplies following U.S. actions against the OPEC producer. China’s Urals crude imports reached about 405,000 barrels per day in January 2026, with total seaborne Russian crude imports nearing 1.4 million barrels per day. Overall Russian crude shipments to China exceeded 1.5 million barrels per day in December 2025, up from approximately 1.2 million barrels per day earlier in 2025.

Indian refiners' reduced Urals crude imports in December hit their lowest level since December 2022, falling to 929,000 barrels per day from averages above 1.2 million barrels per day in recent years. The decrease is linked to the EU's ban on fuels produced from Russian crude, which requires refiners supplying Europe to avoid Russian crude for at least two months before sale eligibility. In contrast, China, which exports minimal oil products to Europe, is benefiting by acquiring discounted Russian crude.

Eastern China's independent refiners in Shandong province, particularly Shandong Yulong Petrochemical—which faces UK and EU sanctions—have significantly ramped up Russian crude purchases after receiving new 2026 import quotas. Since November 2025, Shandong's demand for Russian crude has increased by about 250,000 barrels per day. Other local refineries previously linked to Sinochem are expected to increase Russian crude buying directly under their new quotas.

Prices of Urals crude delivered to China have fallen sharply, with discounts reaching up to $12 per barrel against ICE Brent in late 2025, making it cheaper than comparable Iranian Light crude, which carried an $8 per barrel discount. Both Urals and Iranian Light currently offer discounts of about $10 per barrel for March deliveries. The Russian ESPO blend, China’s primary imported grade, saw discounts widen to $7-8 per barrel in early 2026, compared to $5-6 in December 2025 and even trading at a premium in September 2025.