India

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Landmark IPOs and Shifting Investor Trends Shape India’s Equity Market in Early 2025
May 1, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

The first quarter of 2025 saw India’s IPO market driven by landmark offerings and evolving investor trends.



**Founded in 2016 by Bhupinder Singh and backed by global private equity firm KKR, InCred Financial Services is in advanced talks to launch an IPO worth about Rs 4,000 crore (around $470 million).**
The company plans to file its draft red herring prospectus by October and has appointed IIFL Securities, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Nomura Holdings as book-running lead managers. InCred aims for a post-issue valuation of at least Rs 15,000 crore (approximately $1.76 billion). Since inception, it has disbursed roughly Rs 18,000 crore in loans across personal, education and small business segments to more than 400,000 borrowers.

**Meanwhile, according to EY’s latest IPO Trends report, Indian equity capital markets raised $2.8 billion through 62 IPOs in the first quarter, capturing 22 percent of global IPO fundraising.**
Although the overall number of listings fell by about 20 percent year-on-year, the proportion of profitable companies going public increased. Hexaware Technologies led the quarter with a $1.0 billion IPO, accounting for over one-third of total funds raised, while the BSE Sensex fell modestly by 1.1 percent during the period.

**The IPO pipeline drew heavily from industrials, real estate, hospitality and construction, and health and life sciences.**
At the same time, EY noted a surge in mergers and acquisitions activity by both strategic and financial investors seeking exposure to India’s high-growth sectors, underscoring strong investor confidence and complementing the equity issuance environment.

**Looking ahead, EY Global representatives expect the market to remain resilient on the back of supportive government policies and a dynamic economic landscape, even as geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures pose potential headwinds for investor sentiment.**
Major companies preparing for imminent listings include Reliance’s digital unit Jio, e-commerce startup Zepto, Greaves Electric Mobility and electric vehicle maker Ather Energy, which plans to conclude its IPO on April 30, 2025.
US-India Trade Talks Accelerate Toward Bilateral Deal Amid Pending Tariffs
May 1, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

Discussions between the United States and India have intensified as both sides negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement.

**President Trump has repeatedly expressed optimism that negotiations with India are advancing toward a bilateral trade agreement.**
Speaking outside the White House, he said the talks were “coming along great” and predicted, following Prime Minister Modi’s visit three weeks earlier, that “we’ll have a deal.” His remarks echo Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s recent comment about a trade deal with an unnamed country awaiting leadership approval, which observers widely interpret as India.

**Building on this momentum, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is very close to concluding talks with India, flagging significant progress.**
He also pointed to substantive discussions with Japan and the emergence of a framework for a South Korea agreement, while stressing that no deal takes effect until President Trump gives his personal sign-off.

**Vice President J.D.**
Vance’s trip to India further solidified engagement between the two governments. In New Delhi, he emphasized that the United States seeks more than low-cost labor from India, underlining mutual benefits and reporting substantial headway in trade negotiations. He and his Indian counterparts plan face-to-face meetings in late May to maintain momentum ahead of key deadlines later this year.

**A central focus of these talks is the 26 percent US tariff on Indian imports set to begin in July.**
US officials aim to avert or modify the tariff through the bilateral agreement, securing early, tangible wins well before the formal target date in September or October 2025. They have discussed both tariff and non-tariff issues to lock in results before the Fall 2025 cutoff.

**In 2024 India accounted for nearly 3 percent of US imports and generated a trade deficit of about $45.7 billion.**
Negotiators are considering tariff reductions across a wide range of products to address this imbalance, hoping that lower barriers will encourage more balanced and expanded trade flows.

**Economist Raghuram Rajan says reduced US tariffs could attract companies by making India’s vast domestic market more accessible.**
US officials concur that such concessions would draw investment and strengthen economic integration.

**The White House is pursuing trade agreements with 17 partners, explicitly excluding China, to diversify US trade relationships and lock in favorable terms.**
Alongside India, parallel talks with Japan and South Korea form a key part of the administration’s plan to reshape global trade patterns during President Trump’s first term.

Monitored Intelligence for India - May 2, 2025


News
Media
351

Government
Releases
4

City/State
Releases
0

Embassy
Releases
3
Foreign
Service
Advisories
0
Academic/
Think
Tank
10


Podcasts
0


Videos
0

Social
Media
0

Business
Releases
0

Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.

Risk Categories Reported on Today

Risk Category
Items Reported On
Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
50
Strikes and Work Stoppages
1
Accidents
4
Terrorism
10
Political Scandal or Corruption
3
Communal and Religious Strife
2
Crime
6
Extreme Weather Events
1
Regulation
2
Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
1
Corporate Corruption or Fraud
1

Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.

We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.

Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.

Operations Categories Reported on Today

Operations Category
Items Reported On
Trade Issues and Numbers
8
Mergers & Acquisitions
2
Economic Growth
3
Politics and Elections
2
Demographics
2
Bizdev-Partnering
1
Asset Price Change
1
Inflation
2
Operating Results
4
Supply Chain Issues
2
Real Estate
1
Tech Development/Adoption
1
Legal Exposure
1

India’s New War Doctrine: Responding to Terror with Remote Warfare

Vivekananda International Foundation | English | AcademicThink | May 2, 2025 | Terrorism

On 22 April 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, perpetrated by two Pakistani nationals and one Indian national, has tested India's patience and sovereignty, reminding the nation of ongoing issues with cross-border terrorism. In response, India has quickly downgraded diplomatic relations and closed borders, but the public expects a more significant reaction beyond traditional measures. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised a robust response, indicating a shift towards remote warfare using drones and cyber capabilities.

This new military doctrine, developed from lessons learned during past conflicts such as the Kargil War and confrontations with China, focuses on technological superiority rather than close combat. India aims to employ drones, precision-guided missiles, and other unmanned systems to execute strikes with high precision, enabling a form of deterrence that emphasizes inflicting costs on Pakistan without direct confrontation. The strategy includes targeting critical military assets in Pakistan while avoiding large formations near the Line of Control.

India's remote warfare capability encompasses ground, air, sea, and cyber realms. It plans to utilize medium-altitude long-endurance drones to attack missile sites and airfields, while also deploying naval forces to blockade Pakistan's ports. Despite Pakistan's own drone advancements, India’s robust domestic manufacturing capabilities provide it with an advantage in scale and operational flexibility. This strategy allows India to impose costs without engaging in prolonged ground conflicts, thereby maintaining international support and neutralizing Pakistan's tactical advantages afforded by local terrain.

The Pahalgam incident has prompted a significant transformation in India’s national security approach, moving away from conventional tit-for-tat responses toward a more asymmetrical and decisive military posture. India now prepares to test this remote warfare strategy against Pakistan, aiming to leverage technological advancements and operational unpredictability to reshape regional security dynamics.

Pakistan debunks Indian 'propaganda', warns world of threat to regional instability

The News | English | News | May 2, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Pakistan firmly rejected India's claims linking it to the recent Pahalgam attack, labeling the allegations as propaganda aimed at deflecting from India's own issues in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). During a press briefing, Pakistani officials expressed concerns that such unfounded accusations threaten regional peace. They condemned the attack on civilians and emphasized Pakistan's experience as a victim of terrorism, having suffered significant loss of life and economic damage in its own fight against terrorism.

Foreign Minister Dar criticized India's attempts to associate Pakistan with the incident and suggested that such actions are part of a broader pattern to distract from India's ongoing oppression of Kashmiris. He warned that while Pakistan does not wish to escalate tensions, any aggressive actions by India would provoke a decisive response. He also highlighted his concerns over India's inflammatory rhetoric and questioned the timing of these allegations, suggesting they serve to obscure India's internal problems, including the Kashmir dispute.

Dar called for an independent international investigation into the Pahalgam incident, advocating for scrutiny of India's allegations. Additionally, he raised concerns about growing Islamophobic narratives perpetuated by India, indicating that these could destabilize the region further. He criticized India's unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as illegal and emphasized that international accountability for India's actions is essential to maintain stability in South Asia.

Tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors have escalated since the attack, with India taking punitive actions like suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and expelling Pakistani diplomats. In response, Pakistan has ordered the expulsion of Indian diplomats and closed border crossings. Pakistan's military has reported intelligence suggesting that India may be planning military action against Pakistan. The Pakistan Army has also thwarted recent Indian drone activities near the Line of Control, asserting its commitment to respond to any threats.

Stern warning to India: Fully capable to respond to any ‘misadventure’ – just as in 2019: IK

Business Recorder | English | News | May 2, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Ex-prime minister Imran Khan, currently imprisoned, issued a strong warning to India, asserting that Pakistan is fully capable of responding to any aggression, similar to its actions in 2019. In a message shared on X, he recalled the 2019 Pulwama incident and the resulting military tensions, emphasizing that his government was determined and backed by the nation during that time. The warning comes amidst rising tensions following a recent incident in Pahalgam, which India has suggested involved Pakistan.

Khan criticized India for blaming Pakistan without credible evidence, arguing that the Modi government is repeating past mistakes. He urged India, as a major nation, to act responsibly and called for restraint to avoid escalating the situation, which he labeled a nuclear flashpoint. He reiterated his demand for self-determination for Kashmiris and condemned India's revocation of Article 370 in 2019, asserting that Indian oppression has intensified the desire for freedom among the people of Kashmir.

In his message, Khan also took the opportunity to denounce the current Shehbaz Sharif administration, calling it illegitimate and claiming it was formed through rigged elections. He pointed out that despite political divisions in Pakistan, Modi's aggressive stance has paradoxically united the public against a common threat. Khan alleged that political opponents, including Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari, remain silent on India's actions due to their overseas financial interests, which he believes compromises their willingness to challenge Indian aggression. He concluded by warning that internal division in Pakistan could weaken its position against external threats, emphasizing the importance of national unity in the face of potential conflict.

Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.

Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.

How can we help?
Full Name:
Email Address:
Type of Inquiry:
Country of Interest:

Contact us for a free trial of the Daily Briefing for your country of choice.


We currently cover:
South Korea
Japan
China
Taiwan
Vietnam
India

info@eruditerisk.com

The Daily Briefing is delivered Monday through Thursday via email.

Each day's reports include a combination of:

Takes
Takes are our deep dives into a topic of enduring interest or concern. Takes include copious references to all the media resources we gathered to build them.

Developments
Developments are key issues and incidents being heavily reported on in country. These are the centers of local thought gravity around which everything else revolves.

Risk Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important risk issues reported on in media, arranged by risk category. Learn about risk trends and issues while they are developing--before they blow up.

Ops Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important operational issues reported on in media, arranged by operations category. See what's changing in your market, and what's not.

Government Releases
Government press and data releases on key economic data, regulation, law, intiatives, incidents. Straight from the government's press to your eyes in less than a day.

Embassy and Business Association Releases
Statements and news releases from foreign embassies and business/industry associations, including chambers of commerce.

The Daily Briefing is comprehensive!

The Daily Briefing can run 50-100 pages each day!

Luckily, Erudite Risk tailors every report specifically to you.

Content Filtering
We try hard to ensure that every piece of information included in each day's reports will be of interest to our readers.

To fulfill our goal of comprehensively monitoring the intelligence landscape and also keeping reports readable, we build big reports--then deliver only the information that applies to you.

Each Daily Briefing is a bespoke report matched to your concerns. Tell us what you want in it, or we can match it to your professional needs. It's that easy.