India

CNBC | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

China is shifting from being primarily a global exporter to becoming a major overseas investor, focusing on regions that attract U.S. strategic interest. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng emphasized the need for a fair international environment for Chinese businesses, as investments in factories and technology face risks amid rising global tensions. China's trade surplus hit a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, with significant growth in Belt and Road Initiative countries, especially in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. The Financial Times' FDI Intelligence survey forecasted China as the largest source of outward foreign direct investment in 2026, surpassing the UAE and India.

Chinese overseas investments are increasingly concentrated in technology and manufacturing sectors, partly driven by tariffs pushing Chinese electric vehicle companies to localize production abroad. Companies like autonomous delivery vehicle maker Neolix have begun expanding globally, obtaining licenses and forming partnerships in countries like the UAE and Portugal, with plans to deploy over 10,000 vehicles internationally and enter European markets. Beyond distant markets, intra-Asia trade is a growing "mega theme," with China establishing local operations in countries like Vietnam and benefiting from increased renminbi transactions, which accounted for 60% of Asian trade in 2024.

Southeast Asia has become China's largest trading partner, supporting a 5.5% growth in China's global exports last year despite a 20% decline in shipments to the U.S. due to ongoing trade conflicts. U.S. companies like FedEx are adjusting to these shifts by enhancing their presence in Asia, reflecting broader "re-globalization" trends amid U.S.-China tensions. Chinese companies are responding by hiring more foreign relations experts to navigate complex international business environments and expanding manufacturing abroad.

Additional context includes China’s slow retail sales growth of 0.9% in December 2025, a record low birth rate, and progress in the AI sector, with Chinese models reportedly only months behind U.S. competitors. The chip market remains dominated by Nvidia and Huawei despite increased domestic IPOs. Chinese markets showed moderate gains amid geopolitical tensions, highlighted by the Hang Seng Index's 3.7% year-to-date rise. Upcoming economic events include Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng's visit to Switzerland and industrial profit reports for December.

Livemint | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the prospects of the India–US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), stating that the two countries are “going to have a good deal.” He praised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a close friend and respected leader while acknowledging ongoing tough negotiations, particularly over tariffs and geopolitical issues related to Russian oil imports. Trump highlighted India’s recent reduction of oil purchases from Russia in response to US pressure but noted that tariffs remain a point of contention.

The proposed BTA aims to more than double bilateral trade between India and the US, targeting USD 500 billion by 2030 from the current USD 191 billion. Talks first began during Modi’s Washington visit in February 2025, with multiple negotiation rounds since. Despite tensions, India’s Ministry of External Affairs affirmed that talks have not stalled, emphasizing ongoing commitment from both sides to reach a balanced and mutually beneficial trade agreement.

MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal rejected claims that Modi did not engage sufficiently with Trump, confirming frequent communications between the two leaders in 2025. This followed comments by US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who suggested Modi was reluctant to engage directly with Trump, which he said contributed to higher tariffs and delays in the trade deal.

The Hindu | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

India has withdrawn the dependents and family members of its officials from its missions in Bangladesh due to a deteriorating security situation. Indian diplomatic posts have faced sustained threats of mob attacks over the past few months, prompting the declaration of Dhaka as a “non-family” station as a precautionary measure ahead of Bangladesh’s February 12 election. Despite these steps, Indian officials stated that diplomatic and consular operations will continue unaffected.

Indian missions in Bangladesh have been targeted in recent months, including over two dozen protests near the Indian High Commission in Dhaka and a stone-pelting incident at the Assistant High Commission in Chittagong on December 18, 2025. The situation worsened following the murder of Sharif Osman Hadi, a radical Islamist youth leader, on December 12. Allegations that his killers fled to India fueled threats and protests against Indian missions in Bangladesh, with retaliatory demonstrations occurring outside the Bangladesh High Commission in India.

India has responded by maintaining heightened police security near the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi and tracking developments in Bangladesh closely. Tensions are expected to rise further as the banned Awami League, led by ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has resumed activities from Indian territory, including recent and upcoming media engagements in New Delhi by its leaders.