India

Livemint | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the prospects of the India–US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), stating that the two countries are “going to have a good deal.” He praised Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a close friend and respected leader while acknowledging ongoing tough negotiations, particularly over tariffs and geopolitical issues related to Russian oil imports. Trump highlighted India’s recent reduction of oil purchases from Russia in response to US pressure but noted that tariffs remain a point of contention.

The proposed BTA aims to more than double bilateral trade between India and the US, targeting USD 500 billion by 2030 from the current USD 191 billion. Talks first began during Modi’s Washington visit in February 2025, with multiple negotiation rounds since. Despite tensions, India’s Ministry of External Affairs affirmed that talks have not stalled, emphasizing ongoing commitment from both sides to reach a balanced and mutually beneficial trade agreement.

MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal rejected claims that Modi did not engage sufficiently with Trump, confirming frequent communications between the two leaders in 2025. This followed comments by US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who suggested Modi was reluctant to engage directly with Trump, which he said contributed to higher tariffs and delays in the trade deal.

CNBC | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

China is shifting from being primarily a global exporter to becoming a major overseas investor, focusing on regions that attract U.S. strategic interest. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng emphasized the need for a fair international environment for Chinese businesses, as investments in factories and technology face risks amid rising global tensions. China's trade surplus hit a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, with significant growth in Belt and Road Initiative countries, especially in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. The Financial Times' FDI Intelligence survey forecasted China as the largest source of outward foreign direct investment in 2026, surpassing the UAE and India.

Chinese overseas investments are increasingly concentrated in technology and manufacturing sectors, partly driven by tariffs pushing Chinese electric vehicle companies to localize production abroad. Companies like autonomous delivery vehicle maker Neolix have begun expanding globally, obtaining licenses and forming partnerships in countries like the UAE and Portugal, with plans to deploy over 10,000 vehicles internationally and enter European markets. Beyond distant markets, intra-Asia trade is a growing "mega theme," with China establishing local operations in countries like Vietnam and benefiting from increased renminbi transactions, which accounted for 60% of Asian trade in 2024.

Southeast Asia has become China's largest trading partner, supporting a 5.5% growth in China's global exports last year despite a 20% decline in shipments to the U.S. due to ongoing trade conflicts. U.S. companies like FedEx are adjusting to these shifts by enhancing their presence in Asia, reflecting broader "re-globalization" trends amid U.S.-China tensions. Chinese companies are responding by hiring more foreign relations experts to navigate complex international business environments and expanding manufacturing abroad.

Additional context includes China’s slow retail sales growth of 0.9% in December 2025, a record low birth rate, and progress in the AI sector, with Chinese models reportedly only months behind U.S. competitors. The chip market remains dominated by Nvidia and Huawei despite increased domestic IPOs. Chinese markets showed moderate gains amid geopolitical tensions, highlighted by the Hang Seng Index's 3.7% year-to-date rise. Upcoming economic events include Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng's visit to Switzerland and industrial profit reports for December.

The Hindu | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 21, 2026, that India is set to become the world's third-largest economy in the coming years. Economist Gita Gopinath supported this projection, suggesting the milestone could be reached by 2028 or earlier. Vaishnaw highlighted four pillars driving India’s growth: public investment in physical, digital, and social infrastructure; inclusive societal growth; manufacturing and innovation; and simplification measures. He forecasted India’s growth rate at 6-8% with moderate inflation over the next five years, underpinned by strong technology platforms and inclusive policies that have lifted 250 million people out of poverty.

Both Vaishnaw and Gopinath expressed concern over the potential global impact of high debt levels in wealthy nations, particularly referencing Japan’s recent bond market turmoil. Despite such external risks, they remain confident in India's trajectory toward economic prominence. Gopinath emphasized that the main challenge lies in raising India’s per capita income and achieving long-term development goals by 2047, which will require continued reforms in land acquisition, judicial processes, labor market flexibility, and skill development.

Industrialist Sunil Bharti Mittal echoed the optimistic outlook, noting the importance of a stable and supportive business environment and the growing domestic market. He acknowledged the challenge posed by heightened global competition and the lack of a large foreign market similar to the US for China, stressing the need for India to forge new trade agreements, including with the EU and potentially the US.

Vaishnaw also addressed concerns regarding high US tariffs, emphasizing India’s economic resilience and success in diversifying export markets. He noted India has become an important value chain partner globally, enabling export growth despite protectionist measures elsewhere. Gopinath highlighted pollution as a significant economic and health challenge requiring urgent attention as part of India's developmental agenda.