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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Asia’s arms race shift: India climbs, China slides on PLA graft charges
Times of India | English | News | Dec. 3, 2025 | Political Scandal or Corruption
Global arms revenues reached a record $679 billion in 2024, increasing by 5.9% in real terms, driven mainly by Europe and the US. However, Asia and Oceania experienced a decline in total arms revenues, primarily due to a 10% drop in Chinese arms company revenues amid corruption scandals and contract delays. Contrastingly, India’s arms revenues grew steadily by 8.2%, reaching $7.5 billion across its three top-ranked defense firms: Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL), and Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders.
India’s growth was fueled by domestic orders in radar and electronic warfare equipment, aligning with its military modernization priorities and the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” self-reliance initiative. BEL saw the largest jump with a 24% increase, HAL experienced a slight decline due to delivery issues but remained a key supplier, and Mazagon Dock grew nearly 10% through continued naval production.
In contrast, China’s eight Top 100 arms producers saw combined revenues fall to $88.3 billion, affected by anti-corruption purges, leadership instability, and delays in key programs. Notable declines included NORINCO (-31%) and CASC (-16%), while AVIC also posted a slight decrease. Only two Chinese firms grew, notably CSSC with an 8.7% increase linked to naval expansion. Internal disruptions add uncertainty to China’s military modernization amid ongoing regional tensions.
Other Asian countries offset some regional declines: South Korean arms suppliers grew 31% to $14.1 billion, and Japanese companies posted a 40% rise to $13.3 billion amid increased defense spending. Globally, US defense firms remain dominant with $334 billion in revenues, but face significant program delays and cost overruns impacting capability delivery. European arms producers grew 13% to $151 billion due to rearmament linked to the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s arms revenues rose 23% to $31.2 billion, supported by domestic military demand from the Ukraine conflict, vastly increasing artillery and missile production. The Middle East also expanded its defense presence, with nine firms entering the Top 100 and combined revenues reaching $31 billion, driven by Israeli companies benefiting from regional conflicts and global demand for advanced systems.
Looking ahead, India is expected to continue prioritizing indigenous defense production and potentially expanding exports, while China must address procurement integrity and political fallout to resume its modernization momentum. The evolving Asian arms landscape suggests a shift where institutional discipline and supply chain resilience are becoming critical, with India’s steady growth contrasting with China’s current internal challenges.
Vodafone Idea shares jump 4% on anticipation of AGR relief by year-end
The Economic Times | English | News | Dec. 3, 2025 | Regulation
Shares of Vodafone Idea rose 3.8% to an intraday high of Rs 10.32 on December 2, 2025, following signals that the Indian government is nearing a decision on the company's request for relief from adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues. Union Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia stated that the government is waiting for a formal request from Vodafone Idea before considering any relief measures, emphasizing the need to carefully assess the recent Supreme Court judgment and its legal limits.
Scindia noted that the Ministry of Communications is reviewing what actions are permissible under the Supreme Court’s ruling and that final recommendations on Vodafone Idea's relief package could be announced within a few weeks, potentially by the end of the year. The relief being considered is specific to Vodafone Idea; other telecom players like Bharti Airtel would need separate petitions to seek similar relief.
The Supreme Court, on October 27, indicated no barrier to the government reconsidering Vodafone Idea's AGR dues appeal due to its large customer base and the Centre’s stake in the company. However, it was unclear whether the relief would apply only to additional dues of approximately Rs 9,500 crore or the company’s full AGR liability of nearly Rs 80,000 crore. A November 3 Supreme Court order clarified that the company had sought relief on both counts, and the government is free to decide on either or both aspects.
Yunus rule marked by rehabilitation of Jamaat Institutional capture by radicals and attacks on minorities: Report
The Economic Times | English | News | Dec. 3, 2025 | Communal and Religious Strife
Since August 2024, under the interim government led by Professor Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh has experienced a significant resurgence of Islamist extremism and radicalization. The government lifted the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, both of which have historical ties to violence and opposition to Bangladesh’s independence. This rehabilitation has facilitated deeper connections between JeI and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), heightening concerns over regional security.
A report by the Canada-based Global Centre for Democratic Governance highlights widespread mobilization by banned extremist groups such as Hizb-ut-Tahrir-Bangladesh (HTB) and Jamaat-e-Islami through rallies, recruitment drives, and digital propaganda. Universities have become key nodes for radical recruitment, with extremist groups organizing forums and distributing religious literature promoting caliphate ideals. The report also notes ideological infiltration into state institutions via appointments of individuals with Islamist sympathies and legal actions targeting secular civil and military officials.
Since the regime change, violence and discrimination against religious minorities, including Hindus, Christians, Buddhists, Ahmadis, and indigenous communities, have sharply increased. Civic freedoms have diminished as journalists, writers, and human rights defenders face harassment, surveillance, and legal challenges for opposing religious conservatism. Local administrations have largely allowed the expansion of radical influence due to passive compliance and fear of political repercussions, exacerbating institutional weakening and security challenges.
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