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India
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Widespread Flooding and Infrastructure Disruption from Monsoon Rains in Jammu and Kashmir
Aug. 28, 2025 | Infrastructure & UrbanizationMonsoon rains and flash floods have inundated large swaths of Jammu and Kashmir, disrupting lives and straining response capacities.
**Heavy monsoon rains began on August 25, prompting the India Meteorological Department to warn of intense to very heavy rainfall, cloudbursts, flash floods, landslides, mudslides and shooting stones.**
Over a 24-hour period, Kathua received 155.6 mm of rain, and other districts recorded similar deluges as the system moved northward through the foothills and higher elevations.
**The continuous downpour swelled the Ravi, Taranah, Ujh, Tawi, Chenab, Basenter, Maggar Khad and Sahar Khad rivers above their danger levels.**
Floodwaters inundated low-lying areas in Jammu, Kathua, Doda, Kishtwar, Udhampur, Reasi, Ramban, Poonch and Rajouri. Mid-August flash floods triggered by a cloudburst in Kishtwar had already killed over 65 people, compounding strain on regional response efforts.
**Widespread landslides and erosion collapsed multiple bridges and severely damaged road networks, including the Jammu–Srinagar and Kishtwar–Doda national highways.**
In Reasi, a major landslip near Inderprastha Bhojnalaya on the 12-km trek to the Mata Vaishno Devi shrine reportedly killed between five and 30 pilgrims, injured at least 14 and forced the Shrine Board to suspend the yatra indefinitely. Damage to a bridge over the Sahar Khad river in Kathua disrupted traffic on the Jammu–Pathankot route.
**Authorities confirmed at least ten deaths across various districts, including four in Doda from river drownings and a house collapse, three in Jammu city due to flooding and multiple fatalities on the Vaishno Devi route.**
Rescue teams fear some pilgrims remain trapped under boulders. They evacuated hundreds of residents from vulnerable settlements along riverbanks and in low-lying localities such as Peerkho, Gujjar Nagar, R S Pura, Nikki Tawi and Rajiv Nagar.
**Telecom infrastructure suffered extensive damage when optical fibers were cut, leaving mobile internet, broadband and voice services largely offline across Jammu, Srinagar and Shimla.**
BSNL, Airtel, Vodafone and Jio all reported network failures, and technical teams have deployed to restore connectivity essential for coordinating relief efforts and informing affected populations.
**Rail operations ground to a halt as Northern Railways canceled 22 trains and short-terminated 27 services at Jammu, Katra and Udhampur stations.**
Officials suspended the Pathankot–Kandrori line after flash floods and soil erosion at the Chakki River, and the closure of Jammu airport further delayed the movement of relief supplies and officials.
**The Indian Army’s White Knight Corps, the National Disaster Response Force, the State Disaster Response Force, the Central Reserve Police Force, Jammu and Kashmir Police and local administration spearheaded emergency response efforts.**
They carried out high-risk helicopter evacuations, boat rescues near GGM Science College in Jammu and deployed manpower and machinery on the Vaishno Devi route. Medical teams admitted injured pilgrims to CHC Katra and provided logistical support to displaced families.
**The administration closed all educational institutions as well as government and private offices across the Jammu division, suspended security force recruitment and postponed Class 10 and 11 exams scheduled for August 27.**
The Government Medical College Rajouri canceled its MBBS, paramedical and nursing examinations. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah described the situation as quite serious, convened emergency meetings, requested additional relief funds and briefed Union Home Minister Amit Shah. He plans to travel from Srinagar to Jammu once the airport reopens.
**Authorities have issued continuous alerts for flash floods and landslides through August 27 and warned residents to avoid riverbanks, unstable slopes and flood-prone zones.**
Reasi District Police and other district administrations circulated multiple emergency helpline numbers to facilitate rescue and relief operations.
### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure & Urbanization | (Infrastructure-quality score ↓ → Road network congestion delay index ↑ → Supply-chain disruption days per year ↑) | Increased congestion and disruptions hamper essential goods delivery, worsening shortages in impacted districts. |
| Transportation & Logistics | (Disaster-resilient transport design codes ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↑ → Logistics cost-to-sales ratio shift ↑) | Higher logistics cost-to-sales ratios increase operating expenses and undermine business competitiveness in the region. |
| Information Dynamics | (High-speed broadband household penetration ↓ → Information blackout duration ↑ → Humanitarian access denial proportion ↑) | Prolonged communication blackouts delay relief coordination and increase the share of residents unable to access timely aid. |
| Infrastructure & Urbanization | (Water distribution-network failure frequency ↑ → Household water-rationing days ↑ → Population mental-health distress index ↑) | Extended water rationing amplifies community stress levels and drives a rise in mental-health distress indicators. |
| Societal Resilience | (Critical-infrastructure redundancy ratio ↓ → Essential-service outage frequency ↑ → Post-disaster service-restoration time ↑) | More frequent outages and slower restorations strain recovery efforts and prolong interruptions of vital services. |
| Health | (Emergency-preparedness & stockpile strategy ↓ → Average emergency-room wait time ↑ → All-cause mortality deviation ↑) | Longer emergency-room waits elevate preventable fatalities and push all-cause mortality above normal baselines. |
| Environment | (Nature-based disaster-risk-reduction investment ↓ → Soil-moisture anomaly area ↑ → Flood-damage cost (% GDP) ↑) | Larger flood footprints drive up reconstruction costs and increase flood-damage as a share of regional GDP. |
| Infrastructure & Urbanization | (Building-code stringency & enforcement ↓ → Infrastructure destruction index ↑ → Flood-damage cost (% GDP) ↑) | Lax enforcement leads to greater structural losses, inflating flood-related damage costs relative to GDP. |
| Transportation & Logistics | (Multimodal-connectivity index ↓ → Intermodal congestion day count ↑ → Freight-rate volatility index ↑) | Persistent congestion and rate volatility disrupt supply chains and inject uncertainty into regional trade flows. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Disaster-risk-reduction spending share ↓ → Public-investment execution ratio ↓ → Potential GDP growth revision ↓) | Lower public-investment execution and reconstruction demands force downward revisions to potential GDP growth forecasts. |
### BOTTOM LINE
- Heavy monsoon rains (core driver) caused rivers to exceed danger levels and inundated low-lying settlements, which has led to evacuations, at least ten confirmed deaths, and the likely need for multi-week shelter, food and medical support for displaced families; responders should prioritize cluster needs assessments and preposition water, food and trauma care to the worst-hit districts within 48–72 hours.
- Widespread landslides and bridge collapses (core driver) have severed primary road corridors such as Jammu–Srinagar and Kishtwar–Doda, producing immediate transport isolation that will disrupt delivery of fuel, medicines and construction material and raise local prices unless military and engineering units rapidly restore single-lane access or establish temporary river crossings.
- Severed optical-fiber cables and widespread telecom outages produced a communications blackout that has delayed search-and-rescue coordination and public warnings, increasing the fraction of residents who remain unreachable; restoring basic voice and data via portable satellite terminals, emergency cellular sites (COWs), and prioritized fiber splicing should be an urgent operational objective to reduce lives at risk.
- Suspension of rail and air services combined with road damage has constricted multimodal connectivity, forcing freight into constrained truck routes and creating immediate logistics bottlenecks that will raise freight costs and slow relief throughput unless rail/air corridors are triaged and critical lifts (medical supplies, fuel) are prioritized for air or military transport.
- Local medical facilities are operating at or beyond surge capacity because of drownings, trauma from landslides and displacement, which increases emergency-room wait times and elevates the probability of preventable fatalities and outbreak-prone conditions; quick actions should include emergency medical teams, trauma supply airlifts, and temporary field clinics at evacuation centers.
- Recurrent failure of water-distribution systems and likely contamination of supplies will force household rationing and heighten hygiene-related illness risk, compounding community stress and mental-health needs; interim responses should be water trucking, distribution of purification tablets, and psychosocial support for evacuees.
- Collapse of multiple single-point infrastructure elements (low redundancy) means restoration will often require rebuilding rather than simple rerouting, which extends service-outage durations and increases reconstruction costs; authorities should identify and repair the most critical links first, while planning redundancy upgrades in reconstruction contracts to shorten future recovery time.
- Existing gaps in slope management, upstream catchment treatment and building-code enforcement amplified runoff and structural losses, which will increase reconstruction burdens and swell damage costs as a share of regional GDP unless reconstruction integrates nature-based stabilization and stricter enforcement to reduce repeat losses.
- The concentration of displaced pilgrims and interruption of the Vaishno Devi yatra and other local tourism will depress short-term local revenues and raise unemployment among service-sector workers, creating social strain that requires targeted cash assistance and rapid livelihood-restoration programs to avoid longer-term economic scarring.
- Emergency-response asset depletion from recent mid-August flash floods (compounding current needs) has reduced operational reserves and will likely prolong recovery unless central funds and inter-state assets are rapidly mobilized; immediate fiscal transfers and deployment of Central Armed Police Forces and additional NDRF teams should be coordinated to prevent capacity gaps.
- If repair and relief budgets crowd out planned public investments, then public-investment execution will fall and potential regional growth forecasts should be revised downward for the next 12–24 months; decision-makers should ring-fence recovery-for-resilience spending to combine reconstruction with resilience upgrades and seek phased financing to avoid stopping development projects entirely.
- Communication of clear, repeatedly broadcasted evacuation zones and road-closure maps is essential, because information deficits are the primary cause of delayed evacuations and trapped populations; authorities should use radio, loudspeakers, local leaders and any restored mobile channels to issue unambiguous, time-bound instructions and helpline points.
India Advances Fighter Jet Modernization with Major Engine Deals and Local Production Push
Aug. 28, 2025 | Geopolitics & DefenseIndia is strengthening its fighter jet program through major engine procurement deals and local production partnerships.
**By September 2025, India will finalize a USD 1 billion agreement with General Electric (GE) to procure 113 additional F404-IN20 engines for its indigenous LCA Tejas Mark 1A fighters.**
This commitment builds on a USD 716 million 2021 contract for 99 engines designated for the Indian Air Force’s first 83 jets. Together, these orders will supply Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) with 212 GE-404 engines, maintaining supply continuity and preventing production delays.
**The government recently approved a ₹62,000 crore contract for 97 more LCA Mark 1A jets, bringing total production to 180 aircraft.**
HAL will deliver the first 83 by fiscal year 2029–30 and the remaining 97 by 2033–34. To meet these targets, GE will increase engine deliveries to two units per month, enabling a 24-aircraft annual production rate at HAL’s facilities.
**Compared to the earlier Mk 1 variant, the LCA Mark 1A features an advanced active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, a robust electronic warfare suite, and provisions for mid-air refueling.**
India plans to deploy these enhancements as it replaces its aging MiG-21 fleet, whose squadron strength recently fell to its lowest level since 1965.
**Simultaneously, HAL and GE are negotiating a USD 1.5 billion contract for local manufacture of the more powerful F414 engine, with an 80 percent technology-transfer commitment.**
Under this agreement, 200 GE-414 engines would be produced domestically—about 162 for next-generation LCA Mark 2 fighters and roughly 10 for Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) prototypes.
**The LCA Mark 2, now in prototype production, is set for serial production by 2027 and will offer increased endurance, higher weapons-payload capacity, and upgraded avionics over the Mark 1A.**
The AMCA program, which has begun flight testing, will also leverage the transferred F414 technology to support India’s long-term fleet modernization.
**At the same time, India is collaborating with France’s Safran to advance an indigenous jet engine development program.**
By merging domestic engineering expertise with global technology acquisition, the project seeks to enhance self-reliance in defense production and power future platforms such as the AMCA.
Monitored Intelligence for India - Aug. 29, 2025
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Open to rethink on restrictions on FDI from China, says official
The Economic Times | English | News | Aug. 29, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
India is considering easing certain restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) from China as relations between the two countries improve. A senior government official indicated that the government is open to revisiting Press Note 3, which currently mandates prior approval for FDI from countries sharing a land border with India, including China. The think tank Niti Aayog recently recommended removing the mandatory prior approval for up to 24% Chinese FDI.
Recent months have seen a thaw in India-China ties with ministerial visits, the resumption of direct flights, the promotion of tourism, and enhanced dialogue on border issues. This warming has been further influenced by US tariff policies, including a 50% tariff imposed on Indian goods effective August 27, 2025. China has also agreed to supply rare earth magnets and fertilizers to India.
High-profile diplomatic engagements include External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Beijing and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming trip to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit from August 31 to September 1, where he is expected to meet President Xi Jinping. Press Note 3, introduced in April 2020 to prevent opportunistic takeovers following border clashes, requires prior government approval for FDI from neighboring countries. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized the policy was a cautious approach aimed at protecting strategic sectors but acknowledged that policies might change as situations evolve.
29,000 Myanmar nationals shelter in Mizoram State begins biometric enrollment amid border fencing debate
The Statesman | English | News | Aug. 29, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
Over 29,000 Myanmar nationals displaced by ongoing conflict have taken refuge in Mizoram, India, according to Home Minister K. Sapdanga. As of August 11, 29,046 refugees are sheltered across all 11 districts of Mizoram, with the Champhai district hosting the largest number, over 13,500. The government and community groups have been providing shelter, food, and basic facilities despite limited resources.
The influx began following Myanmar’s military coup in February 2021, which ignited violent conflict, especially in Chin state. The Chin people share close ethnic and cultural ties with the Mizos, prompting civil society and church groups in Mizoram to support the displaced population. District administrations have initiated biometric enrollment of refugees to maintain updated records.
Meanwhile, the Indian central government is progressing with plans to fence the 510-km porous India-Myanmar border, working alongside the Mizoram government, the Border Roads Organisation, and the Assam Rifles. However, Mizoram’s civil society organizations, student groups, and church leaders strongly oppose the fencing, arguing it would disrupt historic ethnic and cultural connections and restrict traditional free movement. The central government asserts fencing is necessary to curb illegal migration, smuggling, and insurgency, while the Mizoram government balances national security concerns with humanitarian and ethnic considerations.
India’s parliament bans vast online gambling industry
Al Jazeera | English | News | Aug. 29, 2025 | Regulation
India’s parliament has passed the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill, which bans online gambling platforms including card games, poker, and fantasy sports such as fantasy cricket. This move follows government data showing that $2.3 billion was being stripped annually from 450 million Indians through these platforms. Offenders could face up to five years in prison for offering, promoting, or financing such games.
The bill impacts Dream11, India’s largest fantasy sports platform and the national cricket team’s key sponsor since July 2023. The Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has not made any announcement on Dream11’s sponsorship, with officials stating they will comply with government policy. Dream11 has discontinued cash games in response but plans to continue other activities pending the bill’s formal ratification by the president.
The government justifies the ban by citing concerns over addiction, financial ruin, social distress, fraud, money laundering, and terrorism financing linked to these gambling platforms. It estimates that about a third of India’s population had lost money gambling online. While industry groups favored regulation and taxation instead of a ban, authorities argue the social costs justify the strict legislation.
The law exempts e-sports and educational games, which the government aims to promote within the digital economy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized the law’s dual goals: encouraging safe online social games and e-sports while protecting society from the harmful effects of online money gambling. Technology minister Ashwini Vaishnaw noted the distinction the law makes between constructive digital recreation and exploitative gambling practices.
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