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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
A Reset of India’s Export Import Rules
Obhan & Associates | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 23, 2026 | Regulation
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has notified the Foreign Exchange Management (Export and Import of Goods and Services) Regulations, 2026, effective from October 1, 2026, replacing previous regulations from 2015 and related directives. These New Regulations aim to simplify cross-border trade compliance through consolidation, delegation, and procedural clarity without introducing new prohibitions or thresholds. They reorganize how exporters, importers, authorized dealers, and regulators manage foreign trade operations.
Key provisions include a defined timeline for service exporters to submit Export Declaration Forms (EDF) within 30 days from the month-end of invoice issuance, with consolidated EDFs allowed for multiple exports within a month. Software exports are now expressly categorized under services, aligning their procedural requirements accordingly. Export proceeds must be realized and repatriated within 15 months of shipment, invoicing, or overseas warehouse sale, with extensions permissible by authorized dealers. Project exports follow contract payment terms and may have extended timelines. For invoicing in Indian Rupees, the realization period extends to 18 months.
For transactions up to Rs. 10 lakh, authorized dealers may close export and import data entries based on self-declarations without full documentary proof, facilitating ease for smaller operators. Quarterly bulk closures of low-value entries are now permitted. Import payments are aligned with contractual terms, and authorized dealers can grant extensions as needed. Advance remittances remain allowed; however, future remittances may require financial guarantees if prior advances are not settled within the contracted period.
The New Regulations explicitly permit set-off of export receivables against import payables, third-party payments, and reduction or non-realization of export proceeds based on authorized dealers’ assessments. For transactions up to Rs. 10 lakh, exporters’ declarations suffice for realisation adjustments. Merchanting Trade Transactions are now formally regulated, requiring inward and outward remittances within six months, direct payment flows with conditional third-party involvement, and active monitoring by authorized dealers.
EDPMS and IDPMS systems have been upgraded from reporting tools to active compliance mechanisms, with authorized dealers responsible for timely entries, follow-up, and closure of transactions, including powers to close entries when advances are not repatriated or imports do not materialize. The overall framework is designed to provide predictable, system-driven foreign trade oversight anchored in clear timelines, value thresholds, and dealer-level discretion.
Supreme Court Rules on Taxability of Capital Gains in India – Denies Mauritius Tax Treaty Benefits and GAAR Grandfathering Protection
AZB & Partners | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 23, 2026 | Regulation
On January 15, 2026, the Supreme Court of India ruled against the Mauritian investment entities of Tiger Global regarding their claim for tax treaty benefits on capital gains from their 2018 sale of Flipkart shares to the Walmart Group. The court emphasized the principle of ‘substance over form’ in the post-GAAR framework introduced in India's Income-tax Act from April 1, 2017.
Tiger Global's Mauritian entities had argued that their gains were tax-exempt under the India-Mauritius DTAA. However, the Supreme Court clarified that DTAA benefits apply only when the transaction is taxable in the non-resident state and rejected the claim for indirect transfer exemptions under Article 13(4) of the DTAA. It was highlighted that the Tax Residency Certificate (TRC) alone does not guarantee treaty benefits, as Indian tax authorities can assess commercial substance beyond the certificate.
The court overturned earlier authorities granting conclusive status to TRCs before GAAR's introduction and established that treaty interpretation must align with domestic anti-abuse laws. GAAR provisions apply even to gains realized after April 1, 2017, regardless of when the original investment was made, and arrangements primarily aimed at tax avoidance without commercial substance can be challenged under GAAR or JAAR.
The Supreme Court found the Tiger Global structure to be prima facie tax-driven, thereby denying DTAA benefits. This judgment underscores heightened scrutiny on treaty benefits and reinforces that substance will prevail over form in tax matters involving cross-border capital gains in India.
'New Delhi bent on weaponising water'
Express Tribune | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
The Ministry of Water Resources informed Pakistan's National Assembly that India unilaterally suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in April 2025 following a militant attack in held Kashmir. This suspension has led to a significant reduction in water flow in the Chenab River, threatening approximately 1.45 million acres of agricultural land under the Upper Chenab Canal and an additional 3.19 million acres under the Chenab Canal. The lowered water availability is expected to severely impact agriculture and livelihoods dependent on these river systems.
India has not responded to concerns raised by Pakistan and United Nations experts regarding this suspension, despite a December 16, 2026 deadline set by the UN for India to explain its actions. A UN report released in December 2025 warned that any disruption of the treaty might severely affect millions of people in Pakistan who rely on the Indus River system for drinking water, agriculture, and food security.
Hydrological data from December 2025 revealed an extraordinary reduction in the Chenab River flow, with measurements dropping well below historical minimums. Satellite imagery showed significant changes in reservoir surface area at Baglihar during this period, indicating alterations in water storage or flow. Pakistan formally sought explanations from India over this unusual water reduction, highlighting growing tensions over water-sharing and resource management under the treaty.
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