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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Politics | (Parliamentary gridlock duration ↑ → Legislative throughput rate ↓ → Policy-uncertainty index deviation ↑ → Investor political-risk premium ↑ → FDI project postponement count ↑) | Heightened policy uncertainty and risk premiums prompt multinational firms to defer FDI projects. |
| Politics | (Judicial intervention in electoral disputes ↑ → Separation-of-powers design tension ↑ → Regulatory-volatility index ↑ → Regulatory-approval lead time (days) ↑ → Ease-of-doing-business percentile ↓) | Increased regulatory volatility and longer approval times weaken India’s ease-of-doing-business ranking. |
| Governance & Law | (Public-trust in elections index ↓ → Sovereign governance-risk spread ↑ → Sovereign-credit-rating momentum ↓ → Foreign direct investment net inflow (% GDP) ↓) | Eroding electoral trust widens sovereign risk spreads and dampens FDI inflows as investors pull back. |
| Social Cohesion | (Media-polarisation score ↑ → Misinformation exposure rate ↑ → Protest frequency & size (pre-election) ↑ → Intergroup conflict incidence ↑ → Democratic-backsliding score ↑) | Rising polarization and misinformation fuel larger pre-election protests and intergroup clashes, signaling democratic backsliding. |
| Competitiveness | (Ease-of-doing-business percentile ↓ → Business-confidence diffusion index ↓ → Private fixed-investment growth deviation ↓ → Labour productivity growth (non-farm) ↓) | Lower ease-of-doing-business scores depress business confidence, shrink private investment growth, and slow non-farm productivity. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
RBI likely to raise forecast for growth, lower it for inflation this MPC
The Economic Times | English | News | Dec. 4, 2025 | Regulation
Market participants expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to revise its macroeconomic projections in the upcoming policy review by raising its growth forecast for FY26 above 7%, up from the earlier 6.8%, and lowering the inflation estimate to around 1.8-2% from the previous 2.6%. This shift follows stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the September quarter and a sharper-than-anticipated decline in inflationary pressures, particularly due to a sustained drop in vegetable prices and recent GST cuts reducing commodity prices.
Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta highlighted the challenges of inflation forecasting in India, citing the volatile food prices and the outdated weight of food in the consumer price index. The RBI has progressively lowered its inflation forecast for FY26, from 4.2% in February to 2.6% in October, with further reductions anticipated. Economists also predict that headline CPI could dip below 1% for November and December, potentially prompting RBI to revise Q3FY26 inflation estimates downward as well.
On the growth front, demand spillover into Q3, triggered by GST rate reductions, along with improvements in credit growth, tax collections, imports, and auto sales, support a stronger growth outlook despite export and tariff-related headwinds. The RBI had previously revised its FY26 GDP estimate upward to 6.8% in October from 6.5% in August, while economists suggest overall growth could reach 7.5%, with domestic consumption offsetting weaker exports and fiscal constraints.
Targeted steps needed to boost efficiency of insolvency law: Parliamentary panel
Livemint | English | News | Dec. 4, 2025 | Regulation
The parliamentary standing committee on finance has called for immediate and targeted reforms to enhance the efficiency of India’s Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). The report highlights systemic issues such as delays caused by a shortage of judges, uncertainty around the finality of resolution plans, and lack of accountability among resolution professionals managing bankrupt businesses. While the IBC has improved creditor confidence and attracted investment, these challenges have limited its effectiveness.
The committee recommends expanding judicial capacity by creating more benches of the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), strengthening accountability mechanisms for resolution professionals through empowered creditor panels and streamlined disciplinary processes, and ensuring the finality of approved resolution plans by enacting explicit legislative amendments. It also urges the removal of procedural ambiguities through clearer rules and calls for the Ministry of Corporate Affairs to implement these reforms swiftly using the IBC Amendment Bill, 2025.
The report comes as amendments to the IBC are under review by a Lok Sabha select committee led by BJP MP Baijayant Panda, with revised legislation expected either in the ongoing winter session or the next budget session. Experts emphasize that these reforms are vital to reduce delays, litigation, and conflicting rulings, which currently undermine the insolvency process and diminish the value of assets under resolution.
The report also notes that overall creditor recovery stands at only 32.8% of admitted claims, largely due to firms entering insolvency when assets are already stressed. Additionally, statutory conflicts between the IBC and the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) pose significant challenges, as asset attachment by the Enforcement Directorate can conflict with protections granted under the IBC resolution process.
Air India suspends 8 staff after aircraft flew with expired safety certificate
Hindu Business Line | English | News | Dec. 4, 2025 | Regulation
Air India has suspended eight staff members following the discovery that one of its Airbus A320 aircraft operated with an expired airworthiness review certificate (ARC). The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) launched an investigation after the airline informed the regulator that the aircraft was flown on an expired ARC for eight revenue sectors. The aircraft has been grounded pending issuance of a fresh ARC, and the concerned personnel have been immediately de-rostered.
The ARC, issued annually by Air India under delegated authority, validates an aircraft’s main Certificate of Airworthiness and requires a thorough review of maintenance and compliance standards. During the 2024 merger of Vistara with Air India, the DGCA took responsibility for the first ARC renewals of Vistara’s 70 aircraft, issuing certificates for 69. The seventieth aircraft’s ARC expired during a grounding for an engine change, after which it was released back into service incorrectly.
Air India is conducting an internal investigation to identify system deficiencies and prevent future occurrences, with all staff involved in the decision suspended pending further review. The DGCA may escalate suspensions or terminations as the probe continues, and potential financial repercussions for Air India are expected.
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