Vietnam

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Surging Prices and Policy Shifts Reshape Vietnam’s Real Estate Market

Jan. 15, 2026 | Firms

Vietnam’s real estate market has experienced significant price surges, policy interventions, and shifting investment patterns across sectors.

**Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính opened the 5th Central Steering Committee session on January 13, 2026 by demanding a clampdown on speculation and inflated prices in commercial housing and apartments, emphasizing that housing must remain accessible as an essential need.**
The Ministry of Construction reported that apartment prices climbed 20–30 percent over the past year, with some areas seeing increases above 40 percent, and adjacent houses and land plots rose substantially as well.

**The Prime Minister directed the Ministry of Finance to study tax measures that discourage speculation and channel investment into productive sectors.**
The ministry had proposed a 20 percent tax on the price difference in real estate transfers but withdrew it, leaving the current 2 percent transfer value tax intact. According to the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers, more than 75 percent of transactions in 2025 involved buyers acquiring second or multiple homes, reflecting investment-driven demand.

**The State Bank of Vietnam must tighten controls on real estate credit and implement risk management policies tied to property lending.**
By the end of Q3 2025, banks’ real estate loans reached about 1.82 million billion đồng—up 35 percent year-on-year—and accounted for roughly 10 percent of total outstanding loans. The State Bank expects credit growth of around 15 percent in 2026, depending on economic conditions.

**The Ministry of Construction will devise mechanisms to supply housing for middle-income groups (earning above 20 million đồng per month) and instruct local authorities to assess demand for social rental housing and units for public officials.**
It plans to expedite procedures for social housing, especially rental projects. Seventeen provinces and cities reported rental demands totaling over 67,100 units, although Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have yet to submit their figures.

**Southern Vietnam’s real estate market saw a surge in mergers and acquisitions in 2025 after nearly three years of stagnation, signaling intense consolidation.**
Domestic developers restructured portfolios to ease financial pressures, and well-capitalized investors bought land with clear legal status. Notable deals included DIC Group’s transfer of four subdivisions in the Dai Phuoc eco-tourism urban area for nearly VND 3 trillion; LDG Group’s sale of the LDG Sky residential project in Thu Duc City; Ngan Hiep Real Estate’s acquisition of over 30 million SEA shares for more than VND 1 trillion to secure a prime plot in District 1; and Son Kim Land’s effective control of the Saigon Broadway project. Foreign investors lost ground to domestic players in major deals, though CapitaLand Tower acquired over 150 hectares in the Vinhomes Green Paradise project in Can Gio for nearly VND 17.5 trillion. Avison Young noted declines in both the number and average value of M&A transactions in 2025 compared with the 2021–2022 boom, with longer negotiations as buyers focused on legal due diligence and risk assessment.

**Most deals took place in Ho Chi Minh City (15 in the central urban area and one in Binh Duong), while satellite cities around Hanoi accounted for eleven transactions and one deal occurred in central Vietnam.**
Avison Young observed that long-term capital shifted toward satellite cities, driven by strong housing demand, decentralization, and rapid infrastructure development, as buyers reposition assets for future growth.

**Apartment prices continued to rise sharply in 2025, especially in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.**
In Q3, the average primary sale price reached about 95 million VND/m² in Hanoi and 91 million VND/m² in Ho Chi Minh City, with many central projects listing between 120 and 150 million VND/m². More than 43 percent of new apartments on the primary market carried prices above 120 million VND/m². The Vietnam Real Estate Market Research Institute found that prices since 2019 have climbed by 96.2 percent in Hanoi, 77.1 percent in Da Nang, and 56.9 percent in Ho Chi Minh City. Many projects reported sharp unit price increases of several hundred million to over one billion VND, despite limited improvements in infrastructure or quality.

**As of January 13, 2026, Deputy Minister of Construction Nguyễn Văn Sinh reported that Vietnam’s real estate market comprised 2,169 commercial housing and urban area projects, 698 social housing projects, and 548 infrastructure projects for land transfers to individuals.**
After a recovery since 2022 produced 580,437 transactions in 2025, housing prices continued to rise by 10–15 percent annually for apartments, townhouses, villas, and land plots, while prices in tourism, commercial, office, and industrial real estate grew at a slower pace.

**Inventory levels for apartments, detached houses, and land plots increased compared with Q3 2025, with apartments and detached houses reaching about 138 percent of that quarter’s stock.**
The Ministry of Construction pointed to a supply focused mainly on mid-to-high-end segments, a lack of affordable housing for industrial workers and low-income groups, project delays due to legal issues, and inefficient use of land and capital as factors driving prices higher.

**Experts including Nguyễn Văn Đính of the Vietnam Real Estate Association cited a persistent mismatch in supply, noting that appropriately priced apartments are almost nonexistent and that a limited rental market intensifies home-ownership demand, further driving up prices.**
They recommend developing rental housing for workers and expanding social and affordable commercial housing to meet broader demand and stabilize the market.

**Dr.**
Nguyễn Sĩ Dũng identified institutional and procedural costs as major barriers that push developers toward high-end projects. He called for reducing these costs, ensuring legal security for public officials, and offering attractive incentives for producing reasonably priced commercial housing, while warning against complex dual-pricing mechanisms.

**The Ministry of Construction will review housing laws and policies for consistency and practicality, streamline investment procedures, enhance administrative reforms, and apply digital transformation to housing and real estate management.**
It will also push localities to implement the National Housing Development Strategy 2021–2030 and align housing development with actual demand to balance supply and prices.

**The 2026 agenda includes advancing a government resolution to develop at least one million social housing units by 2030, establishing a National Housing Fund, continuing demolition of unsafe houses, improving housing data systems through integration of multiple government databases, increasing transparency, strengthening inspection and enforcement of laws, and considering the creation of a state-run Real Estate and Land Use Rights Trading Center to support market stability and development.**

### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**

Domain	Causal Chain	Possible Outcome
Households	(House-price-to-income ratio ↑ → Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Precautionary savings gap ↑)	Widening precautionary savings gaps cut discretionary spending and dampen consumption growth.
Households	(Household debt-service ratio ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Consumer confidence diffusion index ↓ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑)	Increased consumption volatility complicates macroeconomic management and undermines stable growth.
Financial System	(Credit-to-GDP gap ↑ → Financial-conditions index ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↑ → Shadow-bank default cascades ↑)	Heightened crash risk could trigger widespread defaults in shadow banks and amplify financial instability.
Governance & Law	(Policy-implementation speed ↓ → Public-investment execution ratio ↓ → Infrastructure-quality index ↓ → Urban productivity premium ↓)	Slower policy execution and poorer infrastructure depress urban productivity and competitiveness.
Infrastructure & Urbanization	(Construction-permit issuance time ↑ → Housing-affordability index ↓ → Informal-settlement growth rate ↑ → Informal-settlement population share ↑)	Delays in permits fuel informal settlements, straining municipal services and exacerbating urban inequality.
Firms	(Market concentration trend ↑ → SME loan-rejection rate ↑ → Business-formation rate ↓ → Employment growth in the business sector ↓)	Tighter SME lending and lower start-ups slow job creation and hinder inclusive business-sector growth.
Macroeconomics & Growth	(Credit impulse (% GDP) ↑ → Asset-price wealth effect ↑ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑ → Output gap (% GDP) ↓)	Consumption swings widen the output gap, complicating policy efforts to stabilize growth.
Households	(Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Income-volatility (monthly) ↑ → Social-trust composite swing ↓ → Residential protest vandalism rate ↑)	Rising housing stress erodes social trust and can spur protest-related vandalism.
Politics	(Policy-uncertainty index deviation ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↓ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↓ → Potential GDP growth revision ↓)	Heightened policy uncertainty reduces FDI and business investment, prompting downward revisions to potential GDP growth.
Financial System	(Asset-price valuation metrics ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↓ → Financial-conditions index ↑ → Credit-availability index (SME loan approval) ↑)	Valuation corrections ease crash risk, improving conditions and boosting SME credit availability.

### BOTTOM LINE

- Key recent developments include rapid residential price growth (20–40% in the past year and nearly doubling in Hanoi since 2019), a 35% year-on-year expansion in bank real-estate lending to VND 1.82 million billion, an announced government clampdown on speculation with potential transaction taxes, and a wave of domestic M&A consolidating prime land into fewer, well-capitalized firms.

- Core drivers behind these developments are strong investment-driven demand (more than 75% of 2025 buyers acquiring second or multiple homes), abundant and cheaper credit flowing into property, a persistent mismatch between available supply and affordability (market skewed to mid/high-end products), and legal/administrative frictions that favor high-margin projects over affordable housing.

- A primary causal chain runs from rising prices to expanding mortgage and developer credit, which increases household debt-service burdens and financial-system exposure and therefore raises the probability of loan performance deterioration if credit conditions tighten or prices correct.

- Another causal link runs from policy responses (anti-speculation measures, proposed transfer taxes, tighter lending rules) to short-term transaction slowdown and longer due-diligence cycles, which will likely reduce liquidity and prolong development timelines while potentially cooling speculative price momentum.

- Consolidation in the developer sector is causally connected to earlier financial strain and will raise market concentration, which in turn increases counterparty risk for banks and reduces competition for land and projects, likely elevating barriers to entry for SMEs and constraining employment creation in construction and services.

- Because supply growth remains concentrated in mid-to-high-end segments while demand is strong for affordable and rental housing, the most likely near-term social consequence is growing affordability pressure for workers and first-time buyers, increased precautionary household saving, and weaker non-housing consumption growth.

- With real-estate loans already around 10% of outstanding bank credit and rising, the most plausible financial-system ramification is greater sensitivity of bank asset quality to a property market correction, making targeted macroprudential tightening (LTV caps, borrower stress tests, provisioning) a necessary near-term policy lever to avoid broader credit contraction.

- The government’s consideration of a high tax on price differences and orders to tighten credit will reduce speculative flipping if implemented, but a poorly calibrated or abrupt tax will materially reduce market liquidity, encourage tax arbitrage and informal transactions, and could deter some foreign direct investment into real-estate-related projects.

- Practical policy sequencing that reduces downside risk includes immediate tightening of mortgage underwriting standards and macroprudential tools, paired with accelerated approvals and incentives for social and rental housing, a dedicated funding window for affordable‑housing developers, and legal-process reforms to speed title clearance and reduce transaction costs.

- To stabilize expectations and preserve investment, authorities should prioritize clear, phased communication of new rules, publish exposure data (bank real-estate concentrations, developer leverage), and set predictable timelines for any transfer‑tax design so investors can price risk rather than abruptly withdraw liquidity.

- Market monitoring should focus on three leading indicators that will signal systemic stress: quarterly growth in real-estate lending and LTV averages, secondary-market transaction volumes and days-on-market, and non-performing loan flows in banks and shadow-lenders exposed to property; these indicators should trigger pre-defined supervisory actions.

- Firms and investors should prepare for a longer negotiation and due-diligence cycle, prioritize assets with clear legal title and infrastructure connectivity, and shift part of capital allocation toward rental, affordable, and satellite-city projects where demographic and infrastructure trends point to more sustainable demand growth.

Long Thanh International Airport Development Accelerates to Meet Surging Aviation Demand in Vietnam

Jan. 15, 2026 | Infrastructure & Urbanization

Vietnam is expanding its aviation sector by developing Long Thanh International Airport into a future regional hub.

**Long Thanh International Airport spans roughly 5,000 hectares and carries an estimated investment of 337,000 billion dong.**
Built to ICAO 4F standards for more than 100 million passengers annually, Phase 1 facilities were completed between 2021 and 2025 and officially inaugurated on December 19, 2025. Some terminals and runways have already begun handling flights, and full commercial operations are set to start in June 2026.

**After completing Phase 1, the Ministry of Construction appointed the Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) on January 14 to lead Phase 2, except for flight-operation technical infrastructure, which the Vietnam Air Traffic Management Corporation will handle.**
ACV must prepare the feasibility study, explore phased investment plans, allocate sufficient funds to ensure Phase 2’s quality and schedule, and safeguard state capital. Throughout planning and execution, ACV will work closely with the Air Traffic Management Corporation to meet regulatory requirements and operational needs.

**Phase 2 will add a third runway and a second passenger terminal, each designed for 25 million passengers per year, alongside supporting infrastructure to raise annual capacity to 50 million passengers and 1.5 million tonnes of cargo.**
These new assets will complement Phase 1 and accommodate projected traffic growth following the airport’s commercial launch.

**In 2025, Tan Son Nhat Airport handled about 42 million passengers—18 million international and 24 million domestic.**
At Long Thanh’s opening, planners expect to transfer 80 percent of those international travelers and 20 percent of domestic travelers, yielding an initial volume of 17–18 million passengers. At that pace, Phase 1 will reach its 25 million-passenger design capacity within two to three years, reinforcing the urgency of Phase 2.

**Originally slated for 2028–2032, Phase 2 moved forward in response to revised GDP growth forecasts from 2026 and unexpectedly strong air-travel demand.**
The government has proposed amending investment policy to the National Assembly Standing Committee to authorize early implementation of the third runway, leveraging Phase 1 construction resources to reduce costs, shorten timelines, and minimize environmental impact.

**In December 2025, ACV formally requested its role as Phase 2 investor, citing its personnel and machinery already engaged in Phase 1 and the strategic benefits of continuous resource deployment.**
ACV stressed that accelerating Phase 2 will align the airport’s capacity with market demand and optimize use of newly completed infrastructure.

**Phase 2’s success hinges on ACV securing adequate capital and coordinating closely with the Vietnam Air Traffic Management Corporation.**
Completing Phase 2 immediately after Phase 1—by 2025–2026—will position Long Thanh International Airport to handle 50 million passengers and 1.5 million tonnes of cargo annually and establish it as a leading aviation hub in Southeast Asia.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Jan. 19, 2026

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105

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13

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0

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1

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0

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0

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0

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0

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2

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Vietnam accelerates rare earth strategy to strengthen strategic autonomy

Vietnam Net - E | English | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

On January 17, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired a high-level cabinet meeting where the government reviewed several key agendas, notably the national rare earth strategy. Emphasizing the importance of rare earth development as a foundation for national self-reliance, the Prime Minister outlined five main policy directions and stressed strengthened state management. Vietnam, home to some of the world's largest rare earth reserves, plans to transition from raw extraction to advanced processing and application, focusing on institutional reform, deep processing technologies, and high-quality value chains.

The strategy encourages public-private partnerships, backed by financial incentives aimed at attracting domestic and foreign investments. Government agencies are tasked with facilitating technology transfer and adopting sustainable extraction and processing methods. Additionally, digital transformation will be utilized to enhance governance, transparency, and resource tracing throughout the rare earth value chain. Collaboration between central and local governments, scientific institutions, and the private sector is set to be a cornerstone, with an emphasis on smart governance and environmental protection to balance economic and ecological priorities.

The meeting also addressed challenges in transitional build-transfer (BT) infrastructure projects initiated before regulatory updates. The Prime Minister directed the Ministry of Finance and related bodies to expedite drafting a government resolution to resolve legal issues promptly. For projects already audited, the resolution will guide compliance and corrections, while those pending oversight will be managed by provincial authorities, emphasizing local accountability. The resolution aims to respect legal standards, fairness, and risk balance among the state, investors, and the public.

Vietnam’s accelerated rare earth strategy arises amid increasing global demand for rare earths used in electric vehicles, smartphones, and defense technologies, with supply concentrated in few countries. By advancing processing capabilities and technology, Vietnam aims to add strategic value to its rare earth resources, enhancing its role in the green economy, digital transformation, and global tech supply chains, thereby reinforcing its economic sovereignty.

Thủy sản Việt Nam lập kỷ lục 11,3 tỷ USD, tự tin "vượt sóng" 2026

Vietnamese seafood sets a record of 11.3 billion USD, confident to "ride the waves" in 2026

Dantri | Local Language | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

Vietnam’s seafood sector achieved a record export turnover of nearly $11.3 billion in 2025, marking a 12.4% increase from 2024 despite a turbulent global economy and natural disasters. The industry's growth was driven largely by a strong final quarter, with Q4 exports surpassing $3.1 billion and December alone contributing $955 million. This surge was strategically aimed at maximizing shipments to the U.S. ahead of new Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) regulations and capitalizing on increased Chinese market demand, which grew by 22.9%.

Leading companies played a significant role in this success, with top exporters such as STAPIMEX and Minh Phú generating $310 million and $542 million in export revenue, respectively. Vĩnh Hoàn maintained dominance in pangasius exports, especially after exiting the U.S. anti-dumping review list. Vietnamese seafood exporters also demonstrated adaptability by shifting towards more stable markets like the CPTPP bloc and China after the U.S. imposed retaliatory tariffs in August 2025.

Government support was crucial in overcoming industry challenges in 2025, with new decrees easing regulations on catch size and granting tax incentives to processors. Amendments to the VAT law further facilitated capital flow and tax refunds for semi-processed goods. However, the U.S. market remains a hurdle, imposing stricter technical barriers and banning imports from certain Vietnamese fishing practices starting January 2026, potentially affecting over $500 million in exports, particularly tuna, crab, and squid.

Looking ahead to 2026, the seafood sector targets $11.5 billion in exports and over 10 million tons of production, focusing on reducing wild capture by 2.1% and increasing aquaculture by 2.2% to ensure sustainability. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment plans to accelerate the shift from volume-based production to value-driven fisheries economics with an emphasis on processing, multi-value integration, and circular economy models. The merger of environmental and agricultural ministries is expected to improve resource management. Despite climate and trade challenges, the sector is positioned for continued growth and international competitiveness in 2026.

2nd LD-Writethru-Economic Watch: China's auto output, sales reach new highs in 2025, building global win-win ecosystem

Vietnam News | English | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached record highs, exceeding 34 million units each, with production at 34.531 million (up 10.4%) and sales at 34.4 million units (up 9.4%) compared to 2024. This marked the 17th consecutive year that China led global auto output and sales. New energy vehicles (NEVs) experienced rapid growth, with production of 16.626 million units and sales of 16.49 million units, increasing by 29% and 28.2%, respectively, maintaining China's top global position in NEVs for 11 years.

Exports surged by 21.1% to 7.098 million vehicles, driven by increased overseas market focus and strong export performance from joint ventures. NEV exports doubled to 2.615 million units, while traditional fuel vehicle exports slightly decreased by 2%. China's competitiveness in the auto industry is attributed to technological innovation and comprehensive industrial chain advantages, rather than low prices, attracting significant investment and cooperation from global automakers like Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen.

China continues to build a global win-win ecosystem in the automotive sector through deep integration of foreign companies into its production and supply chains, contributing to a stable and efficient global industrial chain. Volkswagen opened a major R&D center in Anhui, accelerating vehicle development cycles, while BMW and Porsche also expanded their local innovation efforts. Japanese and American automakers, such as Toyota, Honda, and Ford, have leveraged China's supply chains to boost sales, profitability, and export growth.

Chinese automakers are also increasing overseas investments, establishing production bases, and forming joint ventures to promote technology sharing and localized manufacturing. Chery's global R&D and production network spans multiple continents, including partnerships like the one with Spain’s EV Motors. These efforts underscore a new collaborative model based on localized production and joint industrial ecosystem development, facilitating mutually beneficial growth internationally.

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