Vietnam

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Vietnam Deepens Regional Ties with Cambodia and Laos at Liberation Anniversary Summit
May 1, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

Vietnam welcomed high-level delegations from Cambodia and Laos in Ho Chi Minh City on April 29, 2025, to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Liberation of the South and National Reunification Day.


General Secretary To Lam of the Communist Party of Vietnam and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh received President Hun Sen of the Cambodian People’s Party and General Secretary and President Thongloun Sisoulith of the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party. The meetings and accompanying ceremonies recalled the deep historical ties forged during Vietnam’s revolutionary struggle and the mutual support Cambodia and Laos provided in Vietnam’s wars for independence and its subsequent development.

**In discussions with President Hun Sen, To Lam recalled Cambodia’s contributions under the late King Norodom Sihanouk and the joint victory over the Pol Pot regime that followed Vietnam’s 1975 triumph.**
Hun Sen described Southern Liberation Day as a symbol of Indochinese solidarity and credited Vietnam’s assistance with Cambodia’s post-genocide recovery and stability. Both leaders agreed to strengthen political trust and expand youth exchanges to carry this shared legacy forward.

**They then turned to economic cooperation, noting their recently signed trade agreement for 2025–2026, which targets a bilateral turnover of US $20 billion.**
Hun Sen commended Vietnam’s administrative reforms, while Vietnam pledged to increase agricultural imports from Cambodia and sought further support for its own exports. The two sides also reviewed substantial Vietnamese investments in Cambodia, progress on border demarcation and measures to facilitate the Vietnamese community in Cambodia.

**Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh met President Thongloun Sisoulith at the inauguration of Wharf No 3 at the Laos–Vietnam International Port.**
Chinh thanked Laos for its historical solidarity and applauded its recent socio-economic achievements. Sisoulith called the anniversary pivotal for Laos, noting how Vietnam’s support helped overcome the country’s landlocked challenges. They reaffirmed their solidarity, pledged closer coordination on national defense, political trust and infrastructure, and mapped out cooperation in transportation, energy, trade, digital transformation and human resource development.

**Across both Cambodian and Laotian engagements, the leaders committed to bolstering collaboration in defense, education, culture and health, improving inter-ministerial coordination and sharing information in international forums.**
They extended invitations for future national celebrations, and Hun Sen accepted To Lam’s invitation to Vietnam’s National Day in September 2025, demonstrating their intent to translate this landmark anniversary into tangible, forward-looking partnerships.
Vietnam and China Deepen Strategic Cooperation Through High-Level Engagements and New Agreements
April 30, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

Vietnam and China are advancing their economic and diplomatic cooperation through high-level meetings and strategic agreements.


On April 28, 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh met with Chinese Minister of Demobilized Military Affairs Bui Kim Giai at the fiftieth anniversary ceremony of Vietnam’s Liberation of the South and National Reunification. Prime Minister Chinh thanked China for supporting Vietnam’s anti-colonial struggles and reunification efforts, and he urged both sides to implement the agreements reached during President Xi Jinping’s recent state visit. Minister Bui extended congratulations on the milestone and pledged to deepen cooperation and strengthen Vietnam–China friendship.

**Later that day, Chinese Ambassador to Vietnam Ha Vi held a press conference to report on President Xi’s April 14–15 state visit—his first foreign trip of the year and fourth visit to Vietnam in the past decade.**
He attributed the rapid succession of high-level exchanges to the strategic importance both countries place on their ties. Xi’s visit produced several key agreements: elevating the 3+3 strategic dialogue on diplomacy, defense, and security to the ministerial level; establishing a China–Vietnam Railway Cooperation Mechanism; and launching the Red Journey Project for youth research and exchange. Preparations are already under way for the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations and the Vietnam–China Humanitarian Exchange Year, reflecting a commitment to deepen cooperation in traditional sectors and in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and green development.

**Ambassador Ha Vi called for closer coordination to counter global challenges like protectionism and unilateralism, urging joint efforts to protect mutual interests and reinforce the World Trade Organization–led multilateral trading system.**
He pointed to rising Chinese investment in Vietnam and encouraged Vietnamese enterprises to tap into China’s expanding middle class. He also identified border modernization and logistics improvements as priorities to reduce trade costs and boost connectivity.

Chinese Ambassador He Wei echoed these outcomes, underscoring the ministerial-level 3+3 Strategic Dialogue framework among the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, National Defense, and Public Security; the establishment of a Railway Cooperation Committee to enhance cross-border transport and logistics; and expanded cultural exchanges to honor shared revolutionary heritage and deepen mutual understanding.

**Bilateral trade between Vietnam and China topped $260 billion last year.**
Both ambassadors highlighted growing collaboration in environmental protection, technology, infrastructure, and renewable energy, noting that Chinese investments in Vietnam’s solar and wind sectors form part of a broader shift toward innovative partnership. People-to-people ties also gained momentum, with tourism on the rise and increased youth and community exchanges. Officials discussed potential cooperation between the Vietnam Fatherland Front and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference to foster deeper ties at multiple levels.




### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**














































Domain Causal Chain Possible Outcome
Geopolitics & Defense (Elevation of 3+3 Strategic Dialogue ↑ → alliance-treaty depth & coverage ↑ → Diplomatic hotline / summit utilisation ↑ → Alliance cohesion score ↑) Enhanced alliance cohesion score reflects a more resilient and predictable strategic partnership.
Non-Interstate Conflict & Security (Elevation of 3+3 Strategic Dialogue ↑ → security-sector professionalisation ↑ → Defense-readiness condition level ↑ → Civilian-conflict fatalities ↓) Improved security professionalisation and readiness reduces civilian-conflict fatalities along disputed areas.
Transportation & Logistics (China–Vietnam Railway Cooperation Mechanism Established ↑ → rail open-access & track-access charge regime ↑ → Rail-freight on-time performance ↑ → Freight cost share of export value ↓) Higher rail freight reliability and lower fees reduce the freight cost share of exports, boosting Vietnam’s export competitiveness.
Transportation & Logistics (China–Vietnam Railway Cooperation Mechanism Established ↑ → customs-and-border clearance digitisation ↑ → Customs clearance time (import, days) ↓ → Door-to-door export lead time (days) ↓) Digitised customs processes shorten clearance and door-to-door transit times, enabling just-in-time supply chain development.
Infrastructure & Urbanization (China–Vietnam Railway Cooperation Mechanism Established ↑ → infrastructure-quality score ↑ → Infrastructure-quality index ↑ → Flood-damage cost (% GDP) ↓) Upgraded rail infrastructure enhances flood resilience, reducing GDP losses from flood damage.
Competitiveness (Bilateral Trade Surpasses $260 Billion ↑ → trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Investment rate (% GDP) ↑) Expanded trade liberalisation attracts FDI and raises the national investment rate.
Social Cohesion (Launch of the Red Journey Project ↑ → youth-engagement policy ↑ → Intergroup-contact frequency ↑ → Social-trust index ↑ → Social-capital index ↑) Increased youth exchanges strengthen social trust and build social capital, underpinning sustainable grassroots cooperation.




### BOTTOM LINE

- The elevation of the 3+3 Strategic Dialogue to ministerial level constitutes a political shock that will institutionalize high-level diplomacy, defense, and public-security consultations and is likely to enhance alliance cohesion, professionalize security forces, improve defense readiness, and reduce civilian-conflict fatalities along disputed borders.
- The establishment of the China–Vietnam Railway Cooperation Mechanism is an infrastructural shock that will standardize track-access fee regimes and digitize customs-and-border clearance processes, thereby boosting rail-freight on-time performance, lowering freight-cost shares and door-to-door transit times, enhancing infrastructure quality, and reducing flood-damage costs—ultimately bolstering Vietnam’s export competitiveness and economic resilience.
- The launch of the Red Journey Project for youth exchange is a socio-cultural shock that will increase intergroup-contact frequency through joint historical research tours and cultural activities, which should elevate social trust and strengthen social capital, thereby underpinning sustainable grassroots bilateral cooperation.
- Bilateral trade surpassing $260 billion represents an economic shock that underscores rapidly deepening interdependence and is expected to drive further trade liberalization and preferential market access, attract higher FDI inflows, raise the national investment rate, and reinforce integration into the WTO-led multilateral trading system to counter protectionism.
- Core drivers behind these shocks include both governments’ strategic imperative to secure mutual interests amid global economic uncertainty, a shared determination to counter protectionism, complementary needs for connectivity and infrastructure modernization, and the desire to leverage shared revolutionary history to legitimize and sustain deeper cooperation.
- Key causal edges link the ministerial-level 3+3 dialogue to deeper treaty coverage and hotline-enabled coordination that raise alliance cohesion; connect the railway committee to harmonized access charges, digital customs platforms, and upgraded flood-resilient infrastructure that lower costs and improve reliability; tie the Red Journey Project to elevated youth engagement and intergroup contact that boost social-trust metrics; and associate the $260 billion trade milestone with increased trade openness, higher FDI inflows, and a rising investment rate.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - May 2, 2025


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Hội thảo Quốc tế về “50 năm thống nhất đất nước: Vai trò của ngoại giao”

International Conference on “50 Years of National Reunification: The Role of Diplomacy”

Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam | Local Language | AcademicThink | May 2, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

On April 23, 2025, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hanoi hosted an International Conference celebrating 50 years of national reunification, focusing on China's role in peace-building through diplomacy. The event saw participation from over 500 delegates, including high-ranking officials, diplomats, scholars, and historical witnesses. Notable attendees included Politburo member and President Luong Cuong and Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son, who emphasized the importance of this milestone as representative of Vietnam's patriotism and diplomatic achievements.

During the conference, President Cuong highlighted the significant role of the April 30, 1975 Victory in shaping Vietnam’s future, underscoring the lessons learned about diplomacy's effectiveness in peace-building. The conference also referred to the 1969 Politburo Resolution which recognized diplomacy as a vital strategic tool. The event illustrated how Vietnamese diplomacy played a crucial part in transitioning from war towards economic growth and global integration, establishing relations with 194 countries and elevating its economic standing internationally.

Discussions highlighted the urgency of maintaining peace and preventing conflict in a world facing various challenges. Cuong urged for constructive contributions from Vietnam to global peace efforts, alongside gratitude expressed towards past leaders and international allies. Multiple speakers, including notable U.S. veterans and diplomats, recognized Vietnam's unique capacity to mediate and develop cooperative relationships, particularly in light of its historical collaborations with the United States and other nations.

Conclusion remarks by Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son emphasized ongoing commitment to an independent and diversified foreign policy. He reiterated Vietnam's role in addressing regional and global issues, aiming for continued peace, stability, and prosperity through diplomatic channels. The event was significant not only for reflecting on Vietnam’s historical journey but also for strategizing future diplomatic endeavors.

Trung Quốc: Hãng bay và Boeing đều thiệt hại vì thuế nhập khẩu

China: Airlines and Boeing both suffer from import tariffs

VN Express | Local Language | News | May 1, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

China's Ministry of Commerce acknowledged the longstanding cooperation between China and the United States in civil aviation, which has fostered bilateral trade and personnel exchanges. However, a spokesperson highlighted that U.S. import tariffs have caused significant disruptions in the global industrial sector and the international air transport market, leading to substantial losses for Chinese airlines and Boeing.

As of April 19, several Boeing airplanes intended for delivery to Chinese customers had to return to Seattle due to the inability of customers to procure new aircraft, attributed to the tariffs. Boeing is now considering reselling numerous planes as a result. Previously, reports indicated that Beijing had instructed its airlines to halt all purchases of U.S. aircraft and components in retaliation for the 145% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods by the U.S.

Despite the trade tensions, there have been signs of concern from China regarding the effects of the trade war. Many businesses have reported that they have not yet faced the 125% tax on imports from the U.S. Additionally, officials have requested companies to identify essential goods for exemption from this tax. French manufacturer Safran recently received communication from Beijing regarding tariff exemptions for certain components, including engines and landing gear.

Hoạt động sản xuất của Trung Quốc thấp nhất gần 2 năm

China manufacturing activity at near 2-year low

VN Express | Local Language | News | May 1, 2025 | UndeterminedSupply Chain Issues

China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49 in April, marking a contraction in activity for the first time since January and the lowest level since December 2023. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the decline is attributed to a high base from March and a rapidly changing external environment. In March, the PMI was at its highest in over a year due to exporters accelerating deliveries ahead of anticipated US import tariffs.

The PMI drop comes as the US has imposed significant tariffs on Chinese goods, with rates reaching as high as 245% for certain products. In retaliation, China has applied a 125% tariff on US goods. The two nations are experiencing severely reduced trade flows, as evidenced by a sharp decrease in the number of container ships departing from China for the US. Although there are no current negotiations for a trade deal, both countries appear to be exploring ways to mitigate the economic fallout from the tariffs.

Nomura estimates that the US tariffs could affect approximately 2.2% of China's GDP and threaten about 9 million manufacturing jobs. In response, Chinese officials have expressed commitment to support impacted businesses and workers while aiming for a growth target of around 5% for the year. Furthermore, Dan Wang from Eurasia Group suggests that for China to counter the negative impact of the tariffs, it would need to significantly increase its fiscal stimulus to at least 2,000 billion yuan.

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