Vietnam

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Surging Prices and Policy Shifts Reshape Vietnam’s Real Estate Market
Jan. 15, 2026 | Firms

Vietnam’s real estate market has experienced significant price surges, policy interventions, and shifting investment patterns across sectors.

**Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính opened the 5th Central Steering Committee session on January 13, 2026 by demanding a clampdown on speculation and inflated prices in commercial housing and apartments, emphasizing that housing must remain accessible as an essential need.**
The Ministry of Construction reported that apartment prices climbed 20–30 percent over the past year, with some areas seeing increases above 40 percent, and adjacent houses and land plots rose substantially as well.

**The Prime Minister directed the Ministry of Finance to study tax measures that discourage speculation and channel investment into productive sectors.**
The ministry had proposed a 20 percent tax on the price difference in real estate transfers but withdrew it, leaving the current 2 percent transfer value tax intact. According to the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers, more than 75 percent of transactions in 2025 involved buyers acquiring second or multiple homes, reflecting investment-driven demand.

**The State Bank of Vietnam must tighten controls on real estate credit and implement risk management policies tied to property lending.**
By the end of Q3 2025, banks’ real estate loans reached about 1.82 million billion đồng—up 35 percent year-on-year—and accounted for roughly 10 percent of total outstanding loans. The State Bank expects credit growth of around 15 percent in 2026, depending on economic conditions.

**The Ministry of Construction will devise mechanisms to supply housing for middle-income groups (earning above 20 million đồng per month) and instruct local authorities to assess demand for social rental housing and units for public officials.**
It plans to expedite procedures for social housing, especially rental projects. Seventeen provinces and cities reported rental demands totaling over 67,100 units, although Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have yet to submit their figures.

**Southern Vietnam’s real estate market saw a surge in mergers and acquisitions in 2025 after nearly three years of stagnation, signaling intense consolidation.**
Domestic developers restructured portfolios to ease financial pressures, and well-capitalized investors bought land with clear legal status. Notable deals included DIC Group’s transfer of four subdivisions in the Dai Phuoc eco-tourism urban area for nearly VND 3 trillion; LDG Group’s sale of the LDG Sky residential project in Thu Duc City; Ngan Hiep Real Estate’s acquisition of over 30 million SEA shares for more than VND 1 trillion to secure a prime plot in District 1; and Son Kim Land’s effective control of the Saigon Broadway project. Foreign investors lost ground to domestic players in major deals, though CapitaLand Tower acquired over 150 hectares in the Vinhomes Green Paradise project in Can Gio for nearly VND 17.5 trillion. Avison Young noted declines in both the number and average value of M&A transactions in 2025 compared with the 2021–2022 boom, with longer negotiations as buyers focused on legal due diligence and risk assessment.

**Most deals took place in Ho Chi Minh City (15 in the central urban area and one in Binh Duong), while satellite cities around Hanoi accounted for eleven transactions and one deal occurred in central Vietnam.**
Avison Young observed that long-term capital shifted toward satellite cities, driven by strong housing demand, decentralization, and rapid infrastructure development, as buyers reposition assets for future growth.

**Apartment prices continued to rise sharply in 2025, especially in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.**
In Q3, the average primary sale price reached about 95 million VND/m² in Hanoi and 91 million VND/m² in Ho Chi Minh City, with many central projects listing between 120 and 150 million VND/m². More than 43 percent of new apartments on the primary market carried prices above 120 million VND/m². The Vietnam Real Estate Market Research Institute found that prices since 2019 have climbed by 96.2 percent in Hanoi, 77.1 percent in Da Nang, and 56.9 percent in Ho Chi Minh City. Many projects reported sharp unit price increases of several hundred million to over one billion VND, despite limited improvements in infrastructure or quality.

**As of January 13, 2026, Deputy Minister of Construction Nguyễn Văn Sinh reported that Vietnam’s real estate market comprised 2,169 commercial housing and urban area projects, 698 social housing projects, and 548 infrastructure projects for land transfers to individuals.**
After a recovery since 2022 produced 580,437 transactions in 2025, housing prices continued to rise by 10–15 percent annually for apartments, townhouses, villas, and land plots, while prices in tourism, commercial, office, and industrial real estate grew at a slower pace.

**Inventory levels for apartments, detached houses, and land plots increased compared with Q3 2025, with apartments and detached houses reaching about 138 percent of that quarter’s stock.**
The Ministry of Construction pointed to a supply focused mainly on mid-to-high-end segments, a lack of affordable housing for industrial workers and low-income groups, project delays due to legal issues, and inefficient use of land and capital as factors driving prices higher.

**Experts including Nguyễn Văn Đính of the Vietnam Real Estate Association cited a persistent mismatch in supply, noting that appropriately priced apartments are almost nonexistent and that a limited rental market intensifies home-ownership demand, further driving up prices.**
They recommend developing rental housing for workers and expanding social and affordable commercial housing to meet broader demand and stabilize the market.

**Dr.**
Nguyễn Sĩ Dũng identified institutional and procedural costs as major barriers that push developers toward high-end projects. He called for reducing these costs, ensuring legal security for public officials, and offering attractive incentives for producing reasonably priced commercial housing, while warning against complex dual-pricing mechanisms.

**The Ministry of Construction will review housing laws and policies for consistency and practicality, streamline investment procedures, enhance administrative reforms, and apply digital transformation to housing and real estate management.**
It will also push localities to implement the National Housing Development Strategy 2021–2030 and align housing development with actual demand to balance supply and prices.

**The 2026 agenda includes advancing a government resolution to develop at least one million social housing units by 2030, establishing a National Housing Fund, continuing demolition of unsafe houses, improving housing data systems through integration of multiple government databases, increasing transparency, strengthening inspection and enforcement of laws, and considering the creation of a state-run Real Estate and Land Use Rights Trading Center to support market stability and development.**







### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**





























































Domain Causal Chain Possible Outcome
Households (House-price-to-income ratio ↑ → Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Precautionary savings gap ↑) Widening precautionary savings gaps cut discretionary spending and dampen consumption growth.
Households (Household debt-service ratio ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Consumer confidence diffusion index ↓ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑) Increased consumption volatility complicates macroeconomic management and undermines stable growth.
Financial System (Credit-to-GDP gap ↑ → Financial-conditions index ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↑ → Shadow-bank default cascades ↑) Heightened crash risk could trigger widespread defaults in shadow banks and amplify financial instability.
Governance & Law (Policy-implementation speed ↓ → Public-investment execution ratio ↓ → Infrastructure-quality index ↓ → Urban productivity premium ↓) Slower policy execution and poorer infrastructure depress urban productivity and competitiveness.
Infrastructure & Urbanization (Construction-permit issuance time ↑ → Housing-affordability index ↓ → Informal-settlement growth rate ↑ → Informal-settlement population share ↑) Delays in permits fuel informal settlements, straining municipal services and exacerbating urban inequality.
Firms (Market concentration trend ↑ → SME loan-rejection rate ↑ → Business-formation rate ↓ → Employment growth in the business sector ↓) Tighter SME lending and lower start-ups slow job creation and hinder inclusive business-sector growth.
Macroeconomics & Growth (Credit impulse (% GDP) ↑ → Asset-price wealth effect ↑ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑ → Output gap (% GDP) ↓) Consumption swings widen the output gap, complicating policy efforts to stabilize growth.
Households (Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Income-volatility (monthly) ↑ → Social-trust composite swing ↓ → Residential protest vandalism rate ↑) Rising housing stress erodes social trust and can spur protest-related vandalism.
Politics (Policy-uncertainty index deviation ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↓ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↓ → Potential GDP growth revision ↓) Heightened policy uncertainty reduces FDI and business investment, prompting downward revisions to potential GDP growth.
Financial System (Asset-price valuation metrics ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↓ → Financial-conditions index ↑ → Credit-availability index (SME loan approval) ↑) Valuation corrections ease crash risk, improving conditions and boosting SME credit availability.




### BOTTOM LINE

- Key recent developments include rapid residential price growth (20–40% in the past year and nearly doubling in Hanoi since 2019), a 35% year-on-year expansion in bank real-estate lending to VND 1.82 million billion, an announced government clampdown on speculation with potential transaction taxes, and a wave of domestic M&A consolidating prime land into fewer, well-capitalized firms.


- Core drivers behind these developments are strong investment-driven demand (more than 75% of 2025 buyers acquiring second or multiple homes), abundant and cheaper credit flowing into property, a persistent mismatch between available supply and affordability (market skewed to mid/high-end products), and legal/administrative frictions that favor high-margin projects over affordable housing.


- A primary causal chain runs from rising prices to expanding mortgage and developer credit, which increases household debt-service burdens and financial-system exposure and therefore raises the probability of loan performance deterioration if credit conditions tighten or prices correct.


- Another causal link runs from policy responses (anti-speculation measures, proposed transfer taxes, tighter lending rules) to short-term transaction slowdown and longer due-diligence cycles, which will likely reduce liquidity and prolong development timelines while potentially cooling speculative price momentum.


- Consolidation in the developer sector is causally connected to earlier financial strain and will raise market concentration, which in turn increases counterparty risk for banks and reduces competition for land and projects, likely elevating barriers to entry for SMEs and constraining employment creation in construction and services.


- Because supply growth remains concentrated in mid-to-high-end segments while demand is strong for affordable and rental housing, the most likely near-term social consequence is growing affordability pressure for workers and first-time buyers, increased precautionary household saving, and weaker non-housing consumption growth.


- With real-estate loans already around 10% of outstanding bank credit and rising, the most plausible financial-system ramification is greater sensitivity of bank asset quality to a property market correction, making targeted macroprudential tightening (LTV caps, borrower stress tests, provisioning) a necessary near-term policy lever to avoid broader credit contraction.


- The government’s consideration of a high tax on price differences and orders to tighten credit will reduce speculative flipping if implemented, but a poorly calibrated or abrupt tax will materially reduce market liquidity, encourage tax arbitrage and informal transactions, and could deter some foreign direct investment into real-estate-related projects.


- Practical policy sequencing that reduces downside risk includes immediate tightening of mortgage underwriting standards and macroprudential tools, paired with accelerated approvals and incentives for social and rental housing, a dedicated funding window for affordable‑housing developers, and legal-process reforms to speed title clearance and reduce transaction costs.


- To stabilize expectations and preserve investment, authorities should prioritize clear, phased communication of new rules, publish exposure data (bank real-estate concentrations, developer leverage), and set predictable timelines for any transfer‑tax design so investors can price risk rather than abruptly withdraw liquidity.


- Market monitoring should focus on three leading indicators that will signal systemic stress: quarterly growth in real-estate lending and LTV averages, secondary-market transaction volumes and days-on-market, and non-performing loan flows in banks and shadow-lenders exposed to property; these indicators should trigger pre-defined supervisory actions.


- Firms and investors should prepare for a longer negotiation and due-diligence cycle, prioritize assets with clear legal title and infrastructure connectivity, and shift part of capital allocation toward rental, affordable, and satellite-city projects where demographic and infrastructure trends point to more sustainable demand growth.
Long Thanh International Airport Development Accelerates to Meet Surging Aviation Demand in Vietnam
Jan. 15, 2026 | Infrastructure & Urbanization

Vietnam is expanding its aviation sector by developing Long Thanh International Airport into a future regional hub.

**Long Thanh International Airport spans roughly 5,000 hectares and carries an estimated investment of 337,000 billion dong.**
Built to ICAO 4F standards for more than 100 million passengers annually, Phase 1 facilities were completed between 2021 and 2025 and officially inaugurated on December 19, 2025. Some terminals and runways have already begun handling flights, and full commercial operations are set to start in June 2026.

**After completing Phase 1, the Ministry of Construction appointed the Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) on January 14 to lead Phase 2, except for flight-operation technical infrastructure, which the Vietnam Air Traffic Management Corporation will handle.**
ACV must prepare the feasibility study, explore phased investment plans, allocate sufficient funds to ensure Phase 2’s quality and schedule, and safeguard state capital. Throughout planning and execution, ACV will work closely with the Air Traffic Management Corporation to meet regulatory requirements and operational needs.

**Phase 2 will add a third runway and a second passenger terminal, each designed for 25 million passengers per year, alongside supporting infrastructure to raise annual capacity to 50 million passengers and 1.5 million tonnes of cargo.**
These new assets will complement Phase 1 and accommodate projected traffic growth following the airport’s commercial launch.

**In 2025, Tan Son Nhat Airport handled about 42 million passengers—18 million international and 24 million domestic.**
At Long Thanh’s opening, planners expect to transfer 80 percent of those international travelers and 20 percent of domestic travelers, yielding an initial volume of 17–18 million passengers. At that pace, Phase 1 will reach its 25 million-passenger design capacity within two to three years, reinforcing the urgency of Phase 2.

**Originally slated for 2028–2032, Phase 2 moved forward in response to revised GDP growth forecasts from 2026 and unexpectedly strong air-travel demand.**
The government has proposed amending investment policy to the National Assembly Standing Committee to authorize early implementation of the third runway, leveraging Phase 1 construction resources to reduce costs, shorten timelines, and minimize environmental impact.

**In December 2025, ACV formally requested its role as Phase 2 investor, citing its personnel and machinery already engaged in Phase 1 and the strategic benefits of continuous resource deployment.**
ACV stressed that accelerating Phase 2 will align the airport’s capacity with market demand and optimize use of newly completed infrastructure.

**Phase 2’s success hinges on ACV securing adequate capital and coordinating closely with the Vietnam Air Traffic Management Corporation.**
Completing Phase 2 immediately after Phase 1—by 2025–2026—will position Long Thanh International Airport to handle 50 million passengers and 1.5 million tonnes of cargo annually and establish it as a leading aviation hub in Southeast Asia.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Jan. 16, 2026


News
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131

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26

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1
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0
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1


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0

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0

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9

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Đổi mới toàn diện công tác sát hạch và cấp Giấy phép lái xe

Comprehensive Reform of the Examination and Issuance of Driver's Licenses

Bao Dien Tu | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | Regulation

The Government Office issued Notice No. 26/TB-VPCP on January 14, 2025, summarizing Vietnam's traffic safety outcomes in 2025 and establishing targets for 2026. Despite challenges such as extreme weather and administrative reforms, traffic accidents decreased significantly in 2025, with incidents down over 22%, deaths over 6%, and injuries nearly 30% compared to 2024. Improvements included a stronger legal framework, enhanced law enforcement, and progress in transport infrastructure projects like the North-South Eastern expressways and the Lào Cai - Hà Nội - Hải Phòng railway. However, serious accidents involving commercial vehicles, motorbikes, and students remain prevalent, with ongoing issues in rural areas and urban congestion in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

For 2026, the government aims to halve traffic accidents, deaths, and injuries per 100,000 population, with even higher targets of 60-70% reductions in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Emphasis is placed on addressing serious accidents, urban congestion, environmental impacts through "Green Transport," and better law enforcement using technology such as cameras and vehicle tracking. The Ministry of Public Security will focus on reforming driver’s license testing to ensure legal knowledge and practical driving skills, strict enforcement of blood alcohol limits, and expansion of traffic safety education, especially for students. Ministries and local authorities are to integrate traffic safety into planning and development, complete legal frameworks, and improve data-sharing systems for enforcement.

The Ministry of Construction is tasked with removing illegal crossings, managing railway safety corridors, coordinating funding for infrastructure, and promoting lane separation between cars and motorcycles. It will also accelerate development of rail, waterway, and aviation transport to ease road traffic, while improving standards for passenger vessels and rest stops, and expanding parking infrastructure in major cities. The Ministry of Health will strengthen first-aid capacities at grassroots levels and develop digital tools for accident reporting. Education authorities will incorporate traffic law education into curricula, certify electric vehicle operation skills for students, and clarify responsibilities for school and family oversight of student drivers.

Local governments, especially in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, must treat traffic safety as a continuous political priority, completing removal of high-risk spots and unauthorized railway crossings by the end of 2026. Both cities will finalize Safe City Schemes targeting green, modern, clean, and safe urban environments, focusing on infrastructure issues and environmental pollution control from vehicles and construction waste transport. Performance in traffic safety will be a key metric in evaluating local leadership, and strict measures will be taken against officials if conditions worsen in their areas of responsibility.

Kỷ lục 1.200 tỷ USD thặng dư thương mại: Hàng Trung Quốc đang tràn đi đâu?

Record 1,200 Billion USD Trade Surplus: Where Are Chinese Goods Flooding?

Dantri | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

China's trade surplus reached a record $1.19 trillion in 2025, the largest ever recorded globally even after adjusting for inflation. This figure surpasses historical peaks from other major economies, including Japan and Germany. Total exports increased by 5.5% to $3.77 trillion despite significant trade barriers, particularly U.S. tariffs, which caused exports to the U.S. to fall by 20%. However, China compensated by significantly expanding exports to emerging markets: Africa (26% increase), Southeast Asia (13%), the European Union (8%), and Latin America (7%). Key export products driving this growth are computer chips, electronic equipment, production inputs, and electric vehicles.

The record surplus reflects a dual challenge of excess production capacity and weak domestic demand. China's policy of maintaining a weaker currency has made exports more competitive but imports have stalled at $2.58 trillion due to higher import costs and Beijing’s push for economic self-reliance. The prolonged real estate market collapse since 2021 has also reduced household savings and spending power, particularly on imported luxury goods. This has weakened domestic consumption, forcing factories to rely on foreign markets to sustain operations and employment.

Looking ahead to 2026, experts expect export growth to slow to around 3%, but the trade surplus should remain above $1 trillion due to continued weak imports. The large manufacturing surplus, accounting for over 10% of China’s GDP, is increasing pressure on trade partners and global economic imbalances. The IMF has advised China to let its currency appreciate and shift towards a domestic consumption-driven growth model to mitigate global trade tensions. However, with no clear recovery in the real estate market, exports are anticipated to remain a critical buffer supporting China’s economy against shocks in the near term.

Trung tâm hành chính Bình Dương chuyển thành tòa nhà Khoa học công nghệ

Binh Duong Administrative Center Converted into Science and Technology Building

VN Express | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption

The Bình Dương Administrative Center building, originally put into use in 2014 and housing nearly 60 provincial agencies, will be converted into a Science and Technology building within 2026. This conversion is part of the first phase of the Project for Developing the Science and Technology Urban Area – North Ho Chi Minh City, approved by the City People's Committee on January 14, with an investment of about 2,000 billion dong. The two 23-story towers will accommodate research and development (R&D) spaces, centers of excellence for universities and enterprises, a microchip design area, and science and technology services including testing, certification, consulting, and innovation support.

The building will also serve as a hub for the startup ecosystem, featuring incubators, co-working spaces, a technology exhibition area, and facilities for international conferences and exhibitions. Utilizing the existing structure is expected to shorten implementation time and reduce costs. Strategically located at the center of Bình Dương New City within a 4,000-hectare industrial-service-urban complex, the building will act as a coordination hub linking key zones such as the Science–Ecology Park, Science Discovery Center, WTC complex, digital technology zones, and a high-tech production belt.

The Science and Technology Urban Area – North Ho Chi Minh City is planned to develop on a 220-hectare core zone, potentially expanding by another 100 hectares. It aims to become a center for R&D, workforce training, technology testing, and innovation, encompassing a Digital Technology Area, BWID Supply Chain City, Science–Ecology Park, and Education–Research Park. Implementation will occur in three phases: finalizing legal and infrastructure groundwork in 2026, accelerating development over the following four years, and completing and populating subzones by 2035. The total project investment will reach hundreds of thousands of billions of dong, supported by a state-creating model combined with special mechanisms, transit-oriented development (TOD), and public–private partnerships.

Additionally, the former Bà Rịa–Vũng Tàu Administrative Center will be repurposed as university training bases following its 1,000 billion dong investment on a 220-hectare site. Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City plans to build a new political and administrative center of about 26 floors in the Thủ Thiêm New Urban Area to serve as a modern governance hub for the metropolis.

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