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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
---|---|---|
Geopolitics & Defense | (Elevation of 3+3 Strategic Dialogue ↑ → alliance-treaty depth & coverage ↑ → Diplomatic hotline / summit utilisation ↑ → Alliance cohesion score ↑) | Enhanced alliance cohesion score reflects a more resilient and predictable strategic partnership. |
Non-Interstate Conflict & Security | (Elevation of 3+3 Strategic Dialogue ↑ → security-sector professionalisation ↑ → Defense-readiness condition level ↑ → Civilian-conflict fatalities ↓) | Improved security professionalisation and readiness reduces civilian-conflict fatalities along disputed areas. |
Transportation & Logistics | (China–Vietnam Railway Cooperation Mechanism Established ↑ → rail open-access & track-access charge regime ↑ → Rail-freight on-time performance ↑ → Freight cost share of export value ↓) | Higher rail freight reliability and lower fees reduce the freight cost share of exports, boosting Vietnam’s export competitiveness. |
Transportation & Logistics | (China–Vietnam Railway Cooperation Mechanism Established ↑ → customs-and-border clearance digitisation ↑ → Customs clearance time (import, days) ↓ → Door-to-door export lead time (days) ↓) | Digitised customs processes shorten clearance and door-to-door transit times, enabling just-in-time supply chain development. |
Infrastructure & Urbanization | (China–Vietnam Railway Cooperation Mechanism Established ↑ → infrastructure-quality score ↑ → Infrastructure-quality index ↑ → Flood-damage cost (% GDP) ↓) | Upgraded rail infrastructure enhances flood resilience, reducing GDP losses from flood damage. |
Competitiveness | (Bilateral Trade Surpasses $260 Billion ↑ → trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Investment rate (% GDP) ↑) | Expanded trade liberalisation attracts FDI and raises the national investment rate. |
Social Cohesion | (Launch of the Red Journey Project ↑ → youth-engagement policy ↑ → Intergroup-contact frequency ↑ → Social-trust index ↑ → Social-capital index ↑) | Increased youth exchanges strengthen social trust and build social capital, underpinning sustainable grassroots cooperation. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Hội thảo Quốc tế về “50 năm thống nhất đất nước: Vai trò của ngoại giao”
International Conference on “50 Years of National Reunification: The Role of Diplomacy”
Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam | Local Language | AcademicThink | May 2, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
On April 23, 2025, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hanoi hosted an International Conference celebrating 50 years of national reunification, focusing on China's role in peace-building through diplomacy. The event saw participation from over 500 delegates, including high-ranking officials, diplomats, scholars, and historical witnesses. Notable attendees included Politburo member and President Luong Cuong and Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son, who emphasized the importance of this milestone as representative of Vietnam's patriotism and diplomatic achievements.
During the conference, President Cuong highlighted the significant role of the April 30, 1975 Victory in shaping Vietnam’s future, underscoring the lessons learned about diplomacy's effectiveness in peace-building. The conference also referred to the 1969 Politburo Resolution which recognized diplomacy as a vital strategic tool. The event illustrated how Vietnamese diplomacy played a crucial part in transitioning from war towards economic growth and global integration, establishing relations with 194 countries and elevating its economic standing internationally.
Discussions highlighted the urgency of maintaining peace and preventing conflict in a world facing various challenges. Cuong urged for constructive contributions from Vietnam to global peace efforts, alongside gratitude expressed towards past leaders and international allies. Multiple speakers, including notable U.S. veterans and diplomats, recognized Vietnam's unique capacity to mediate and develop cooperative relationships, particularly in light of its historical collaborations with the United States and other nations.
Conclusion remarks by Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son emphasized ongoing commitment to an independent and diversified foreign policy. He reiterated Vietnam's role in addressing regional and global issues, aiming for continued peace, stability, and prosperity through diplomatic channels. The event was significant not only for reflecting on Vietnam’s historical journey but also for strategizing future diplomatic endeavors.
Trung Quốc: Hãng bay và Boeing đều thiệt hại vì thuế nhập khẩu
China: Airlines and Boeing both suffer from import tariffs
VN Express | Local Language | News | May 1, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers
China's Ministry of Commerce acknowledged the longstanding cooperation between China and the United States in civil aviation, which has fostered bilateral trade and personnel exchanges. However, a spokesperson highlighted that U.S. import tariffs have caused significant disruptions in the global industrial sector and the international air transport market, leading to substantial losses for Chinese airlines and Boeing.
As of April 19, several Boeing airplanes intended for delivery to Chinese customers had to return to Seattle due to the inability of customers to procure new aircraft, attributed to the tariffs. Boeing is now considering reselling numerous planes as a result. Previously, reports indicated that Beijing had instructed its airlines to halt all purchases of U.S. aircraft and components in retaliation for the 145% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods by the U.S.
Despite the trade tensions, there have been signs of concern from China regarding the effects of the trade war. Many businesses have reported that they have not yet faced the 125% tax on imports from the U.S. Additionally, officials have requested companies to identify essential goods for exemption from this tax. French manufacturer Safran recently received communication from Beijing regarding tariff exemptions for certain components, including engines and landing gear.
Hoạt động sản xuất của Trung Quốc thấp nhất gần 2 năm
China manufacturing activity at near 2-year low
VN Express | Local Language | News | May 1, 2025 | UndeterminedSupply Chain Issues
China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49 in April, marking a contraction in activity for the first time since January and the lowest level since December 2023. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the decline is attributed to a high base from March and a rapidly changing external environment. In March, the PMI was at its highest in over a year due to exporters accelerating deliveries ahead of anticipated US import tariffs.
The PMI drop comes as the US has imposed significant tariffs on Chinese goods, with rates reaching as high as 245% for certain products. In retaliation, China has applied a 125% tariff on US goods. The two nations are experiencing severely reduced trade flows, as evidenced by a sharp decrease in the number of container ships departing from China for the US. Although there are no current negotiations for a trade deal, both countries appear to be exploring ways to mitigate the economic fallout from the tariffs.
Nomura estimates that the US tariffs could affect approximately 2.2% of China's GDP and threaten about 9 million manufacturing jobs. In response, Chinese officials have expressed commitment to support impacted businesses and workers while aiming for a growth target of around 5% for the year. Furthermore, Dan Wang from Eurasia Group suggests that for China to counter the negative impact of the tariffs, it would need to significantly increase its fiscal stimulus to at least 2,000 billion yuan.
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