Vietnam

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

US Presidential Election
Nov. 7, 2024 | None

Kamala Harris's net worth is estimated at $8 million, primarily from real estate and investments. As Vice President, her annual income is $235,100, lower than her previous earnings as San Francisco District Attorney and California State Attorney General. She also earns over $500,000 from book royalties. Her Los Angeles home increased in value from $1 million in 2012 to $4.4 million in 2021. Her husband, Doug Emhoff, an entertainment lawyer, contributed to their wealth by earning over $1 million annually in 2019. Their combined investments, cash, and retirement funds are estimated to be between $2.9 million and $6.6 million in 2024. Harris receives nearly $1 million in pensions from public service, and her release of 15 years of tax returns during the 2020 campaign underscores her financial transparency.

The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates by 0.25%, with future strategies likely influenced by the US presidential election outcomes. Candidates propose growth-stimulating policies that could complicate inflation management, with Trump's proposals potentially increasing inflation. The Fed might halt monetary easing if Republicans win decisively, leading to aggressive fiscal policies. The timing of the Fed's decision could impact voter perceptions, and Chair Jerome Powell's call for reduced easing amidst current economic conditions may have political implications. Developed nations' central banks face challenges from slowing growth and inflation, complicated by Trump's tariff threats. The Reserve Bank of Australia plans to maintain interest rates shortly before the US election.

Judge Angelo Foglietta ruled that Elon Musk could continue his $1 million-a-day voter donation program in battleground states, despite opposition from Philadelphia's prosecutors. The program, active in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, involves participants signing a petition for free speech and the right to bear arms, aligning with Musk's agenda and Trump's campaign. Musk has contributed nearly $120 million to support Trump.

The November 5 presidential election features Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a tight race focused on economic issues. Trump plans to increase tariffs, while Harris opposes them, considering them harmful to the middle class. To address inflation, Harris suggests tax cuts for small businesses and first-time homebuyers, whereas Trump suggests deportation measures that might worsen inflation. On taxes, Harris aims to extend some tax cuts while increasing corporate taxes for the wealthiest. Trump's plans could significantly raise the national debt, highlighting their differing economic visions.

Billionaire donors support both candidates. Kamala Harris is backed by Bill Gates, who donated $50 million for healthcare, poverty reduction, and climate change, and George Soros. Other donors include Taylor Swift, Mark Cuban, and Reid Hoffman. Trump is supported by Timothy Mellon, Geoffrey Palmer, and Elon Musk, with Musk contributing at least $75 million to pro-Trump efforts.

The election results are closely watched by global investors due to potential market volatility and implications for tax and trade policies. The election could lead to different economic scenarios affecting US industries, with uncertainty, especially in key battleground states. Recent positive economic data has bolstered stocks, but election-induced fluctuations are anticipated. The US dollar's movement reflects anticipated policy changes; a Trump win could cause inflation and higher bond yields, while a Harris win might raise concerns about taxes and regulations.

On Election Day, stock markets often show initial declines followed by upward trends, influenced by electoral uncertainties. This year, competitive races have heightened market tension, as indicated by the elevated "fear gauge" index. Analysts emphasize focusing on business fundamentals over predictions, as markets typically recover within a month post-election. Stock markets have performed exceptionally well this year, fostering positive investor sentiment.

Preliminary results from the November 5, 2024, election showed Donald Trump winning Kentucky and Indiana, while Kamala Harris won Vermont. Financial markets saw considerable gains on Election Day, reflecting investor optimism. States employ different voting systems, with technology playing a significant role, though manual counting remains in certain precincts. The voting process uses optical scanning and ballot marking devices to accommodate various voting methods comprehensively.
Heavy rain and flooding in Central Vietnam
Nov. 7, 2024 | None

Da Nang City is experiencing severe flooding due to heavy rains that began on November 5, impacting significant areas such as Me Suot Street in the Hoa Khanh Nam Ward. This has forced many residents to evacuate, with assistance from border guards, military personnel, police, and local militia. The Me Xi Canal has overflowed, raising property damage concerns and prompting residents to elevate furniture, while authorities work to clear canal obstructions to manage water levels. The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting reports cold air masses affecting the North Central and Central Central regions, dropping temperatures below 16 degrees Celsius in some northern mountainous areas. Strong northeast winds aggravate the situation, with heavy rain and thunderstorms expected from Ha Tinh to Binh Dinh. Rainfall could exceed 300mm, leading to alerts for localized flooding and potential flash floods in smaller rivers and streams.

The Da Nang region's difficulties are part of broader weather events affecting several Vietnamese regions. Major evacuations in Thua Thien Hue's Phu Loc District are responding to landslide risks, affecting 23 households. Quang Binh and Quang Tri provinces face similar impacts, with rain causing flooding and infrastructure damage. The Gianh River’s rising levels pose flooding risks through November 9. In Da Nang, 835 individuals have been moved to safer areas, with local military and civil defense on high alert, and authorities issuing maritime warnings and coastal safety measures. The severe weather results in notable disruptions, including key transportation closures.

Heavy rainfall continues to affect Central Vietnam, with predictions of totals between 300mm and 600mm, especially intense in Da Nang and Quang Ngai. By November 5 afternoon, flash flood and landslide threats were prominent in 484 communes and wards, with a high risk in districts of Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang, Quang Nam, and Quang Ngai. In Quang Binh's Mai Hoa Commune, Mr. CVC tragically lost his life rescuing a child from floodwaters, underscoring the severe weather's human toll. Authorities in Quang Binh and Thua Thien Hue have instituted safety measures, including flood warnings, barriers, and advice for residents to prepare for ongoing adverse conditions. The weather is expected to continue affecting transportation, economic activity, and daily life in the affected regions.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Nov. 8, 2024


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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Latest update on Typhoon Yinxing: JMA forecasts storm entering the East Sea

Vietnam Net - E | English | News | Nov. 7, 2024 | Extreme Weather Events

As of November 5, Typhoon Yinxing has formed off the eastern coast of the Philippines, with maximum sustained winds of 30 m/s and gusts up to 45 m/s. The storm is projected to move northwest toward Luzon Island, entering the East Sea around November 8. If it follows the forecast, Yinxing will be the seventh named storm in the region this year.

The Japan Meteorological Agency anticipates Yinxing will strengthen, potentially reaching sustained winds of 40 m/s and gusts of 55 m/s. The name "Yinxing," proposed by China, translates to a species of tree.

In related forecasts, northeastern winds at level 6, gusting to level 7, were reported at the Bach Long Vi station. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Gulf of Tonkin and along coastal areas from Quang Tri to Kien Giang, with possible tornadic activity and strong winds of levels 7-8.

Winds in the Gulf of Tonkin are expected to rise to level 5, occasionally reaching level 6 with gusts up to level 7, leading to rough seas with waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters. In the northern East Sea, winds may reach levels 6-7, gusting to 8-9, resulting in waves between 3 and 6 meters. Conditions along the coast from Quang Tri to Ninh Thuan will mirror these forecasts, while areas from Binh Thuan to Ca Mau are expected to experience level 5 winds and waves of 1 to 2 meters. All vessels in these regions are at significant risk from tornadoes, strong winds, and large waves.

Bão Yinxing mạnh lên, hướng vào Biển Đông

Typhoon Yinxing strengthens, heading towards the East Sea

Dantri | Local Language | News | Nov. 7, 2024 | Extreme Weather Events

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has reported that Typhoon Yinxing is located about 345 km east of Luzon Island, exhibiting strong winds at level 13, with gusts reaching level 15. Yinxing is moving northwest but is expected to slow and shift west, potentially affecting northern coastal areas of Luzon before entering the East Sea around November 8.

The Japan Meteorological Agency confirms Yinxing's intensity has increased to level 13, with gusts up to level 16. The storm is currently moving slowly in a west-northwest direction and is forecast to begin shifting westward starting November 7. Winds may intensify to level 14 in the next 24 hours but are expected to weaken as it transitions into the East Sea.

Weather expert Nguyen Ngoc Huy noted that Yinxing could become the seventh storm to impact the East Sea this year. U.S. and European forecast models indicate a possible landfall in Vietnam's South Central region by November 13, although its trajectory and intensity remain uncertain. While heavy rainfall is anticipated as the storm approaches, weather forecasts for Typhoon Yinxing have yet to be issued by Vietnam's meteorological agency.

No:474/23, Azərbaycanın Qarabağ bölgəsində Ermənistan tərəfindən yaradılmış qondarma rejimin “seçkilər” adlandırdığı qanunsuz fəaliyyəti ilə bağlı bəyanat

No: 474/23, statement regarding the illegal activities of the so-called regime created by Armenia in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, which it calls "elections"

Embassy of Azerbaijan in Vietnam | Local Language | Embassy | Nov. 7, 2024 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

The release addresses the illegal activities of the Armenian regime in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region, described as "presidential elections," which violate both the Azerbaijani Constitution and international law. It argues that the country's legitimate framework for political expression and elections is being undermined by this regime.

The separatist regime is depicted as the result of nearly 30 years of Armenian aggression and ethnic cleansing, with its actions lacking legal validity due to military and political support from Armenia. This situation poses a significant challenge to normalization efforts in the region and the reintegration of ethnic Armenians into Azerbaijan's constitutional framework.

There is a suggestion that Armenia's actions reflect a lack of genuine interest in the peace process, aiming instead to maintain the status quo. The release emphasizes Armenia's need to recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and engage in constructive normalization, aligning with international obligations.

Armenia's obstruction of dialogue with the ethnic Armenian population in Azerbaijan is highlighted as a significant interference in Azerbaijan's internal affairs. The statement asserts Azerbaijan's commitment to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity and specifies that lasting peace hinges on the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from Karabakh.

Finally, Azerbaijan calls on the international community to assess actions that threaten its sovereignty and to prevent Armenia from undermining normalization efforts, condemning the so-called elections as illegal.

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