Vietnam

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Record Growth Transforms Vietnam Securities Market as Investors Prepare for 2026 Rebalancing
Jan. 13, 2026 | Financial System

Vietnam’s securities market has achieved record growth and is poised for strategic investment opportunities in 2026.

**In 2025, Vietnamese investors opened about 2.5 million new securities accounts—the largest annual increase in the country’s stock market history—bringing total accounts to nearly 11.9 million, or 11.6 percent of the population.**
This figure surpassed government targets of nine million by 2025 and 11 million by 2030. During the same period, the VN-Index climbed 40.87 percent to a record 1,805 points, ranking among the world’s top ten and Asia’s top three performing indices. Market liquidity also improved significantly, with average session matched‐trade values on the HoSE exceeding VND 20,000 billion.

**Individual investors now hold 99.4 percent of all securities accounts, while foreign investors account for less than 0.5 percent.**
In December 2025, foreign investors returned to net buying on the HoSE, purchasing nearly VND 2,100 billion, and they have maintained net buying into early 2026. To rebalance the investor base, the State Securities Commission is boosting institutional and foreign participation and encouraging a shift from speculative trading toward long-term investment. The Ministry of Finance aims to expand foreign investor accounts to 200,000 by 2030, requiring a fourfold increase and roughly 15 percent annual growth.

**Regulators are also raising the quality of domestic individual investors by promoting allocations through securities funds, which should strengthen market efficiency, stability, and depth.**
Over the next five years, domestic individuals are expected to generate about 70 percent of trading volume, with domestic institutions and foreign investors sharing the remaining 30 percent.

**Looking to 2026, Vietnam faces a rebalancing phase as traditional growth pillars—real estate, cheap labor, and easy monetary policy—lose momentum.**
The economy must shift toward innovation and infrastructure investment, and banks are forecast to raise deposit rates by 0.5–1 percent in a move toward proactive monetary tightening. The stock market will likely see higher volatility, making liquidity and risk management crucial. Under a new legal framework and healthier issuer balance sheets, bond yields could reach 7–15 percent. Real estate regulations next year will enhance transparency and raise costs, favoring centrally located apartments and suburban plots in satellite cities for their rental demand and foreign direct investment support. Gold should remain a safe haven amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, though returns may not match 2025’s gains. Overall, 2026 presents an opportunity to accumulate quality assets at reasonable prices rather than chase rapid profits.
Vietnam Accelerates Administrative Streamlining and Socio-Economic Reforms Under Prime Minister Chính
Jan. 13, 2026 | Governance & Law

Vietnam is accelerating administrative streamlining and socio-economic reforms under Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính’s leadership.

**Prime Minister Chính launched the 2026 task-setting conference by reaffirming the government’s campaign to simplify central and local structures.**
Since late 2024, Vietnam has abolished 13 general departments, eliminated more than 500 department-level units, over 230 ministerial divisions, and thousands of sub-departments and public service agencies. At the local level, the number of provinces and centrally administered cities fell from 63 to 34, communes and wards consolidated into 3,321 units, and the district tier was removed entirely. The government also disbanded over 700 provincial and 8,200 district-level specialized agencies.

**These organizational reforms support Vietnam’s dual centennial goals of reaching upper-middle-income status by 2030 and high-income developed country status by 2045.**
To drive progress in 2026, the Prime Minister outlined five strategies: perfect institutions, mobilize financial and human resources, invest robustly in infrastructure, advance technology, and ensure socio-economic balance. In the short term, authorities will convene the 14th Party Congress, implement its resolutions, pursue the three strategic breakthroughs, and maintain momentum in cultural, educational, and social welfare initiatives.

**Reviewing 2025, Vietnam navigated a global slowdown, inflationary pressures, and macroeconomic volatility to achieve 8.02 percent GDP growth, keep inflation under control, preserve fiscal stability, and maintain public debt at manageable levels.**
The national economy reached US $514 billion, with per capita income surpassing US $5,000. Under the Government Party Committee—established in January 2025—officials prepared 160 reform proposals for Politburo and Secretariat review, ramped up public investment, and secured ten consecutive years of trade surpluses alongside US $38.5 billion in foreign direct investment. Flagship infrastructure milestones included the technical opening of the North–South expressway and completion of Long Thành international airport, supported by inauguration and groundbreaking events covering projects with over 5.12 million billion dong in committed capital.

**Looking ahead, Prime Minister Chính stressed the need for close coordination among ministries and local authorities to ensure quality and efficiency in ongoing public investment projects.**
He urged officials to avoid waste and formalism, tailor infrastructure and institutional reforms to local conditions, and sustain the pace of administrative streamlining as a foundation for Vietnam’s long-term socio-economic objectives.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Jan. 14, 2026


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Thai PM calls for overhaul of border MoUs with Cambodia amid poll campaign tensions

Vietnam News | English | News | Jan. 14, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has called for a comprehensive review and update of two memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with Cambodia that address unresolved land and maritime border disputes. He emphasized that the existing MoUs, signed in 2000 and 2001, are outdated due to advances in technology and international standards. Anutin proposed a new framework incorporating modern surveying methods and clearer legal principles but noted that his caretaker government cannot enforce changes before elections.

The border situation currently remains calm, though authorities stay vigilant following recent clashes. Border tensions have become a focal point in Thailand’s election campaigns, with opposition parties criticizing the use of Cambodia’s preferred maps and the reliance on LiDAR technology, which they claim led to territorial losses for Thailand. Some parties call for scrapping the existing MoUs, arguing they favor Cambodia.

The United States has responded to the conflict by pledging a US$45 million aid package to support the fragile ceasefire and regional stability. This includes funding to address drug trafficking, cybercrime, border stabilization, assistance for displaced civilians, and de-mining operations. The aid is linked to the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords signed in October, aiming to uphold peace after renewed fighting in July and December 2025. The recent conflict resulted in over 100 deaths and displaced more than half a million people, rooted in colonial-era border claims and contested temple sites along the Thailand-Cambodia border.

Đổi chủ đầu tư dự án đường sắt tốc độ cao Bắc - Nam

Changing the Investor of the North-South High-Speed Railway Project

Dantri | Local Language | News | Jan. 14, 2026 | UndeterminedBizdev-Partnering

The Ministry of Construction has appointed the Thăng Long Project Management Board (Thăng Long PMB) as the new investor for the North–South high-speed railway project, replacing the Railway Project Management Board. Thăng Long PMB will be responsible for preparing the feasibility study report and overseeing the project's quality, schedule, and costs. The Board will collaborate with relevant agencies to incorporate existing research into the report.

The Railway Project Management Board will complete procedures and finalize the contract with the contractor for package VT-01, related to project management consultancy during the preparation phase. Upon completion, all materials will transfer to Thăng Long PMB for further implementation. The Ministry of Construction has emphasized the need for a seamless handover to avoid project disruptions.

The North–South high-speed railway will span 1,541 km, from Ngọc Hồi Station in Hanoi to Thủ Thiêm Station in Ho Chi Minh City, with 23 stations in total, including five freight stations. The preliminary investment is estimated at about 1.7 million billion dong (approximately 67 billion USD). Construction of two priority sections, Hanoi–Vinh and Ho Chi Minh City–Nha Trang, is planned to begin in 2026, with the remaining sections starting in 2028. The project aims for completion by 2035.

The Ministry of Construction continues preparing key investment procedures, including selecting the investment form and hiring consultants for the feasibility study report, which will support policy decisions and project implementation planning.

Nghị quyết 79 "cởi trói" cho Vietcombank, BIDV, VietinBank...

Resolution 79 "unties" Vietcombank, BIDV, VietinBank...

Dantri | Local Language | News | Jan. 14, 2026 | Regulation

On January 12, the VN-Index increased by over 9 points, driven by banking and securities stocks showing their highest liquidity in nearly four months. State-owned banks Vietcombank (VCB) and BIDV (BID) reached daily price limits, with VCB experiencing its fifth consecutive gain and VietinBank's CTG also rising strongly amid high liquidity. Foreign investors have been net-buying these state bank stocks.

This growth followed the issuance of Politburo Resolution No. 79-NQ/TW, aimed at revitalizing the state economic sector by 2030. The resolution targets having 50 state-owned enterprises among Southeast Asia's 500 largest companies, with 1–3 in the global top 500, and specific goals for state-owned banks to rank among Asia’s top 100 by assets, with four becoming technological leaders.

Resolution 79 is expected to unlock credit growth and support more diversified asset allocation, emphasizing funding for new industries such as technology, manufacturing, and consumer sectors rather than focusing solely on real estate and industry. It also addresses the conflict between banks' need to retain earnings to meet Basel II/III capital requirements and the pressure to pay cash dividends to the state.

The resolution permits the use of proceeds from equitization and capital divestment to increase charter capital instead of remitting them to the state budget, allowing enterprises to retain earnings or reinvest capital flows from the State Capital Investment Corporation (SCIC). This change fosters long-term valuation improvement and capital accumulation.

Vietcombank is seen as the likely first state bank to reach Asia’s top 100, while BIDV and VietinBank, with large assets but thinner capital adequacy ratios, will benefit from the ability to retain earnings, significantly expanding lending capacity. The resolution also tackles Tier 1 capital shortfalls by allowing the use of equitization proceeds for charter capital increases.

Previously, state capital management focused on preservation and risk avoidance, which created inertia and missed strategic investment opportunities. Resolution 79 represents a fundamental shift, positioning the state economy as a strategic tool to guide and regulate economic development.

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