Try the Daily Briefing
Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.
Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Households | (House-price-to-income ratio ↑ → Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Precautionary savings gap ↑) | Widening precautionary savings gaps cut discretionary spending and dampen consumption growth. |
| Households | (Household debt-service ratio ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Consumer confidence diffusion index ↓ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑) | Increased consumption volatility complicates macroeconomic management and undermines stable growth. |
| Financial System | (Credit-to-GDP gap ↑ → Financial-conditions index ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↑ → Shadow-bank default cascades ↑) | Heightened crash risk could trigger widespread defaults in shadow banks and amplify financial instability. |
| Governance & Law | (Policy-implementation speed ↓ → Public-investment execution ratio ↓ → Infrastructure-quality index ↓ → Urban productivity premium ↓) | Slower policy execution and poorer infrastructure depress urban productivity and competitiveness. |
| Infrastructure & Urbanization | (Construction-permit issuance time ↑ → Housing-affordability index ↓ → Informal-settlement growth rate ↑ → Informal-settlement population share ↑) | Delays in permits fuel informal settlements, straining municipal services and exacerbating urban inequality. |
| Firms | (Market concentration trend ↑ → SME loan-rejection rate ↑ → Business-formation rate ↓ → Employment growth in the business sector ↓) | Tighter SME lending and lower start-ups slow job creation and hinder inclusive business-sector growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Credit impulse (% GDP) ↑ → Asset-price wealth effect ↑ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑ → Output gap (% GDP) ↓) | Consumption swings widen the output gap, complicating policy efforts to stabilize growth. |
| Households | (Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Income-volatility (monthly) ↑ → Social-trust composite swing ↓ → Residential protest vandalism rate ↑) | Rising housing stress erodes social trust and can spur protest-related vandalism. |
| Politics | (Policy-uncertainty index deviation ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↓ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↓ → Potential GDP growth revision ↓) | Heightened policy uncertainty reduces FDI and business investment, prompting downward revisions to potential GDP growth. |
| Financial System | (Asset-price valuation metrics ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↓ → Financial-conditions index ↑ → Credit-availability index (SME loan approval) ↑) | Valuation corrections ease crash risk, improving conditions and boosting SME credit availability. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Đổi mới toàn diện công tác sát hạch và cấp Giấy phép lái xe
Comprehensive Reform of the Examination and Issuance of Driver's Licenses
Bao Dien Tu | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | Regulation
The Government Office issued Notice No. 26/TB-VPCP on January 14, 2025, summarizing Vietnam's traffic safety outcomes in 2025 and establishing targets for 2026. Despite challenges such as extreme weather and administrative reforms, traffic accidents decreased significantly in 2025, with incidents down over 22%, deaths over 6%, and injuries nearly 30% compared to 2024. Improvements included a stronger legal framework, enhanced law enforcement, and progress in transport infrastructure projects like the North-South Eastern expressways and the Lào Cai - Hà Nội - Hải Phòng railway. However, serious accidents involving commercial vehicles, motorbikes, and students remain prevalent, with ongoing issues in rural areas and urban congestion in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
For 2026, the government aims to halve traffic accidents, deaths, and injuries per 100,000 population, with even higher targets of 60-70% reductions in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Emphasis is placed on addressing serious accidents, urban congestion, environmental impacts through "Green Transport," and better law enforcement using technology such as cameras and vehicle tracking. The Ministry of Public Security will focus on reforming driver’s license testing to ensure legal knowledge and practical driving skills, strict enforcement of blood alcohol limits, and expansion of traffic safety education, especially for students. Ministries and local authorities are to integrate traffic safety into planning and development, complete legal frameworks, and improve data-sharing systems for enforcement.
The Ministry of Construction is tasked with removing illegal crossings, managing railway safety corridors, coordinating funding for infrastructure, and promoting lane separation between cars and motorcycles. It will also accelerate development of rail, waterway, and aviation transport to ease road traffic, while improving standards for passenger vessels and rest stops, and expanding parking infrastructure in major cities. The Ministry of Health will strengthen first-aid capacities at grassroots levels and develop digital tools for accident reporting. Education authorities will incorporate traffic law education into curricula, certify electric vehicle operation skills for students, and clarify responsibilities for school and family oversight of student drivers.
Local governments, especially in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, must treat traffic safety as a continuous political priority, completing removal of high-risk spots and unauthorized railway crossings by the end of 2026. Both cities will finalize Safe City Schemes targeting green, modern, clean, and safe urban environments, focusing on infrastructure issues and environmental pollution control from vehicles and construction waste transport. Performance in traffic safety will be a key metric in evaluating local leadership, and strict measures will be taken against officials if conditions worsen in their areas of responsibility.
Kỷ lục 1.200 tỷ USD thặng dư thương mại: Hàng Trung Quốc đang tràn đi đâu?
Record 1,200 Billion USD Trade Surplus: Where Are Chinese Goods Flooding?
Dantri | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers
China's trade surplus reached a record $1.19 trillion in 2025, the largest ever recorded globally even after adjusting for inflation. This figure surpasses historical peaks from other major economies, including Japan and Germany. Total exports increased by 5.5% to $3.77 trillion despite significant trade barriers, particularly U.S. tariffs, which caused exports to the U.S. to fall by 20%. However, China compensated by significantly expanding exports to emerging markets: Africa (26% increase), Southeast Asia (13%), the European Union (8%), and Latin America (7%). Key export products driving this growth are computer chips, electronic equipment, production inputs, and electric vehicles.
The record surplus reflects a dual challenge of excess production capacity and weak domestic demand. China's policy of maintaining a weaker currency has made exports more competitive but imports have stalled at $2.58 trillion due to higher import costs and Beijing’s push for economic self-reliance. The prolonged real estate market collapse since 2021 has also reduced household savings and spending power, particularly on imported luxury goods. This has weakened domestic consumption, forcing factories to rely on foreign markets to sustain operations and employment.
Looking ahead to 2026, experts expect export growth to slow to around 3%, but the trade surplus should remain above $1 trillion due to continued weak imports. The large manufacturing surplus, accounting for over 10% of China’s GDP, is increasing pressure on trade partners and global economic imbalances. The IMF has advised China to let its currency appreciate and shift towards a domestic consumption-driven growth model to mitigate global trade tensions. However, with no clear recovery in the real estate market, exports are anticipated to remain a critical buffer supporting China’s economy against shocks in the near term.
Trung tâm hành chính Bình Dương chuyển thành tòa nhà Khoa học công nghệ
Binh Duong Administrative Center Converted into Science and Technology Building
VN Express | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption
The Bình Dương Administrative Center building, originally put into use in 2014 and housing nearly 60 provincial agencies, will be converted into a Science and Technology building within 2026. This conversion is part of the first phase of the Project for Developing the Science and Technology Urban Area – North Ho Chi Minh City, approved by the City People's Committee on January 14, with an investment of about 2,000 billion dong. The two 23-story towers will accommodate research and development (R&D) spaces, centers of excellence for universities and enterprises, a microchip design area, and science and technology services including testing, certification, consulting, and innovation support.
The building will also serve as a hub for the startup ecosystem, featuring incubators, co-working spaces, a technology exhibition area, and facilities for international conferences and exhibitions. Utilizing the existing structure is expected to shorten implementation time and reduce costs. Strategically located at the center of Bình Dương New City within a 4,000-hectare industrial-service-urban complex, the building will act as a coordination hub linking key zones such as the Science–Ecology Park, Science Discovery Center, WTC complex, digital technology zones, and a high-tech production belt.
The Science and Technology Urban Area – North Ho Chi Minh City is planned to develop on a 220-hectare core zone, potentially expanding by another 100 hectares. It aims to become a center for R&D, workforce training, technology testing, and innovation, encompassing a Digital Technology Area, BWID Supply Chain City, Science–Ecology Park, and Education–Research Park. Implementation will occur in three phases: finalizing legal and infrastructure groundwork in 2026, accelerating development over the following four years, and completing and populating subzones by 2035. The total project investment will reach hundreds of thousands of billions of dong, supported by a state-creating model combined with special mechanisms, transit-oriented development (TOD), and public–private partnerships.
Additionally, the former Bà Rịa–Vũng Tàu Administrative Center will be repurposed as university training bases following its 1,000 billion dong investment on a 220-hectare site. Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City plans to build a new political and administrative center of about 26 floors in the Thủ Thiêm New Urban Area to serve as a modern governance hub for the metropolis.
Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.
Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.
info@eruditerisk.com
The Daily Briefing is delivered Monday through Thursday via email.
Each day's reports include a combination of:
Takes
Takes are our deep dives into a topic of enduring interest or concern. Takes include copious references to all the media resources we gathered to build them.
Developments
Developments are key issues and incidents being heavily reported on in country. These are the centers of local thought gravity around which everything else revolves.
Risk Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important risk issues reported on in media, arranged by risk category. Learn about risk trends and issues while they are developing--before they blow up.
Ops Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important operational issues reported on in media, arranged by operations category. See what's changing in your market, and what's not.
Government Releases
Government press and data releases on key economic data, regulation, law, intiatives, incidents. Straight from the government's press to your eyes in less than a day.
Embassy and Business Association Releases
Statements and news releases from foreign embassies and business/industry associations, including chambers of commerce.
The Daily Briefing can run 50-100 pages each day!
Luckily, Erudite Risk tailors every report specifically to you.
Content Filtering
We try hard to ensure that every piece of information included in each day's reports will be of interest to our readers.
To fulfill our goal of comprehensively monitoring the intelligence landscape and also keeping reports readable, we build big reports--then deliver only the information that applies to you.
Each Daily Briefing is a bespoke report matched to your concerns. Tell us what you want in it, or we can match it to your professional needs. It's that easy.