Try the Daily Briefing
Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.
Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.
Vietnam
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Surge in Digital Payments Reshapes Vietnam’s Financial Landscape
June 16, 2025 | Financial SystemVietnam is rapidly expanding its digital payment infrastructure and adoption across the economy.
**In the first quarter of 2025, Vietnam processed 5.5 billion cashless transactions—82 percent through digital channels—totaling over 40 trillion VND.**
This growth places the country alongside Thailand and ahead of China in digital transaction volume. Between Q4 2022 and Q4 2024, cashless payments grew at a compound annual rate of 92 percent.
**Mobile wallets such as Apple Pay and Google Pay, together with card-based methods, now account for 60 percent of all cashless payments.**
About 87 percent of Vietnamese adults hold bank accounts, with urban centers leading the way. In Ho Chi Minh City alone, the banking system averages nearly 820,000 transactions per day.
**Cashless payment systems boost the efficiency of banking and financial sectors, increase transparency in economic management, and strengthen national competitiveness.**
The State Bank of Vietnam emphasizes their role in reinforcing financial management and driving the expansion of digital services. To secure transactions in high-risk environments, financial institutions are deploying artificial intelligence for fraud detection and customer experience improvements; one bank reports that AI-driven systems have markedly reduced fraud risks in both digital and card payments.
**Government leaders say that fast, secure digital payments support broader digital economic growth and improve cash flow transparency in e-commerce.**
They point to cybersecurity vulnerabilities and personal data protection gaps as key barriers, calling for stronger institutional frameworks and policies to enable innovative payment models while safeguarding user data.
**Despite the surge in digital payments, 77.5 percent of consumers still opt for cash on delivery, reflecting ingrained cash habits.**
Rural areas face inadequate technological infrastructure and a rise in high-tech crime. In response, the State Bank is collaborating with commercial banks and payment intermediaries to develop technological defenses against cyber threats.
**Vietnamese officials are examining international practices to accelerate cashless adoption.**
Drawing on South Korea’s example, where cash payments have fallen to 15.9 percent, they are considering personal income tax deductions for digital transactions. They also plan inter-sectoral cooperation and localized training programs to help small and medium-sized enterprises transition to cashless operations.
### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Technology & Innovation | (High-speed broadband household penetration ↑ → Digital divide (speed & affordability gap) ↓ → Household digital-payments adoption ↑ → Consumer-confidence index ↑) | Expanding high-speed broadband reduces the digital divide and drives digital-payments adoption, thereby enhancing consumer confidence. |
| Households | (Household digital-payments adoption ↑ → Consumer-confidence index ↑ → Household consumption growth contribution to GDP ↑) | Higher digital-payments adoption raises consumer confidence and increases household consumption’s contribution to GDP growth. |
| Financial System | (Payment-system architecture upgrade ↑ → Settlement fails rate ↓ → Real-economy credit availability ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑) | Upgraded payment-system architecture cuts settlement failures, boosting banks’ liquidity and credit availability to drive above-trend business fixed-investment growth. |
| Financial System | (Financial-system cyber-resilience rules ↑ → Reported financial-sector cyber incidents ↓ → Public trust in financial institutions ↑ → Real-economy credit availability ↑) | Stronger cyber-resilience rules decrease financial-sector incidents, bolstering public trust and enabling banks to expand credit availability. |
| Firms | (Enterprise AI adoption index ↑ → Digital-skill intensity of workforce ↑ → Average labour productivity (value-added per hour) ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑) | Rising enterprise AI adoption enhances workforce digital skills and labour productivity, prompting firms to accelerate fixed-investment growth. |
### BOTTOM LINE
- Vietnam’s leap to 5.5 billion cashless transactions in Q1 2025 reflects the rapid rollout of high-speed broadband and widespread mobile-wallet adoption, which is boosting consumer convenience and driving e-commerce expansion.
- The deployment of AI-driven fraud-detection systems by major banks has significantly reduced payment losses, strengthening public trust in digital channels and encouraging more households and businesses to shift away from cash.
- Modernized payment-system architectures and tougher cyber-resilience requirements are cutting settlement failures and enabling banks to free up liquidity, thereby increasing credit availability and supporting above-trend growth in business fixed investment.
- Deeply ingrained cash-on-delivery habits—favored by 77.5 percent of consumers—underscore cultural resistance and highlight the need for targeted infrastructure upgrades and SME training in rural areas to achieve fuller digital-payment penetration.
- Policymakers are studying South Korea’s success in driving down cash usage to consider tax incentives for digital transactions and to foster interagency collaboration, though stronger data-protection measures must accompany any new incentives to maintain user confidence.
- As enterprises emulate banks’ AI investments, workforce digital skills are rising, lifting labor productivity and catalyzing further corporate investment in automation and analytics tools—an emerging virtuous cycle that enhances national competitiveness.
- A failure to bridge the rural connectivity gap and to counter escalating cyber threats could lead to pockets of financial exclusion, reputational damage for the banking sector, tighter regulatory oversight, and a slowdown in private-sector lending.
- Collaborative efforts between the State Bank, commercial banks, and payment platforms to bolster cybersecurity and personal-data safeguards are critical for sustaining the momentum of Vietnam’s digital-economy transformation.
Vietnam Launches Provincial Mergers and Sweeping Local Government Overhaul
June 16, 2025 | Governance & LawThe government will launch a comprehensive decentralization and local government reform on July 1 to boost socio-economic development and streamline governance.
**Starting July 1, Vietnam will introduce a two-tier local government system across 34 provinces and centrally-run cities.**
The National Assembly overwhelmingly approved the provincial-level administrative arrangements resolution for 2025, granting local authorities stronger leadership and management roles to drive socio-economic development and simplify governance at the national level.
**On June 12, a government resolution reclassified administrative units, reducing the total number of provinces to 63 and establishing 34 province-level entities—28 provinces and six centrally-run cities.**
Simultaneously, the government issued 28 decrees to clarify power divisions, streamline administrative procedures, and improve public service delivery. From July 1, local units will assume 17 specific responsibilities, enhancing their autonomy in implementing policies and engaging directly with citizens and businesses.
Several provinces, including Lao Cai and Yen Bai, will merge to nearly double their population and territory, aiming to attract infrastructure investment and spur regional economic growth.
**Under Decree 144/2025, the Ministry of Construction will delegate over half of its state management functions to provincial People’s Committees.**
Minister Tran Hong Minh will operate a 24/7 hotline to support localities through the transition. The transferred powers will cover approval of construction master plans, detailed design of public works projects, management of public procurement, and operation of public utilities.
Provincial governments will also assume transport-related authorities, including issuance and oversight of domestic and international vehicle operation permits, traffic safety inspections, and approval of cross-border transport services with China, Laos, Cambodia, as well as within ASEAN and the Greater Mekong Subregion.
**At the grassroots level, the Ministry of Home Affairs directs communes to serve as the core of local administration rather than subordinate units.**
Provincial People’s Committees will function as unified administrative centers to implement laws and development programs. Provincial chairpersons will receive direct authority in 11 key sectors to eliminate procedural delays and accelerate decision-making.
**Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh describes these measures as part of a broader governance overhaul backed by 28 decentralization decrees.**
The government has reassigned 6,738 tasks to local levels—including 2,718 functions related to land management—and will strengthen implementation capacity, transparency, and accountability at every administrative tier.
**Local authorities are piloting the new governance model in various administrative centers.**
While staffing levels will remain stable initially, officials plan a gradual reduction in civil servants over the next five years. They will also introduce specialized commune-level departments to respond more quickly to community needs. Residents have expressed optimism, expecting more efficient services and a stronger focus on regional socio-economic development.
### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Governance & Law | (Sub-national fiscal-autonomy framework ↑ → Regulatory-quality score ↑ → Ease-of-doing-business percentile (new B-READY) ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑) | Stronger sub-national fiscal autonomy and regulatory quality boost ease of doing business, attracting higher FDI net inflows. |
| Infrastructure & Urbanization | (Municipal fiscal autonomy & revenue capacity ↑ → Local-government capital-budget execution rate ↑ → Infrastructure-quality index ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑) | Improved municipal budget execution and infrastructure quality drive above-trend business fixed-investment growth. |
| Infrastructure & Urbanization | (Land-use zoning flexibility index ↑ → Infrastructure maintenance backlog (% replacement value) ↓ → Infrastructure-quality index ↑ → Logistics-performance index (LPI) ↑) | Greater land-use flexibility reduces maintenance backlogs and raises infrastructure quality, improving logistics performance. |
| Infrastructure & Urbanization | (Construction labour-productivity trend ↑ → Infrastructure project cost-overrun ratio ↓ → Infrastructure-quality index ↑ → Logistics-performance index (LPI) ↑) | Higher construction labour productivity cuts cost overruns, boosts infrastructure quality, and strengthens logistics performance. |
| Transportation & Logistics | (Customs-and-border clearance digitisation ↑ → Average customs-clearance time ↓ → Door-to-door export lead time (days) ↓ → Real export market-share change ↑) | Digitised customs clearance reduces export lead times, making goods more competitive and expanding real export market share. |
| Transportation & Logistics | (Multimodal-connectivity index ↑ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Logistics-performance index (LPI) ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑) | Enhanced multimodal connectivity improves logistics reliability and performance, drawing increased FDI net inflows. |
| Governance & Law | (Sub-national fiscal-autonomy ratio ↑ → Tax-collection efficiency (C-efficiency) ↑ → Public-trust index in national institutions ↑ → Investor confidence premium (credit-default-swap spread) ↓) | Improved sub-national fiscal autonomy boosts tax collection and public trust, reducing the investor confidence premium. |
| Infrastructure & Urbanization | (Affordable-housing & zoning inclusivity ↑ → Metro-area housing price-to-income multiple ↓ → Homelessness rate ↓ → Poverty head-count ↓) | Greater affordable housing and zoning inclusivity lower housing stress, reducing homelessness and overall poverty head-count. |
| Governance & Law | (E-procurement penetration rate ↑ → Single-bid share in public tenders ↓ → Public-procurement cost-overrun frequency ↓ → Ease-of-doing-business percentile (new B-READY) ↑) | Higher e-procurement penetration cuts single-bid contracts and cost overruns, enhancing the ease-of-doing-business score under B-READY. |
| Social Cohesion | (Social-capital density index ↑ → Civic-participation rate ↑ → Social-trust composite swing ↑ → Volunteerism rate trend ↑) | Higher social-capital density boosts civic participation and trust, leading to a rise in volunteerism rates. |
### BOTTOM LINE
- Merging 63 provinces into 34 entities will strengthen sub-national fiscal autonomy and enable tailored regulations, which is likely to raise regulatory quality and simplify business processes, encouraging higher levels of foreign direct investment.
- Assigning 6,738 state functions to provincial and commune governments will boost local revenue capacity and execution rates for capital budgets, leading to faster infrastructure development and triggering above-trend business fixed-investment growth.
- Empowering local authorities with flexible land-use zoning will reduce maintenance backlogs, elevate overall infrastructure quality, and streamline logistics networks, resulting in improved logistics-performance scores and greater trade competitiveness.
- Delegating construction approvals and procurement to provincial People’s Committees will enhance construction labour productivity, reduce project cost overruns, and yield higher-quality public works that underpin more reliable transport and supply chains.
- Shifting transport-permit issuance and border-clearance oversight to provinces will accelerate digitization of customs processes, shorten average clearance and export lead times, and support an increase in Vietnam’s real export market share.
- Integrating road, rail, and inland-waterway management at the provincial level will boost multimodal connectivity, stabilize end-to-end supply-chain lead times, and attract additional foreign investment seeking efficient logistics infrastructure.
- Expanding local tax-raising powers and improving collection methods will enhance public trust by delivering visible local improvements, which should lower sovereign risk perceptions and reduce the investor-confidence premium on Vietnam’s credit.
- Empowering communes to implement inclusive zoning and affordable-housing initiatives will drive down metropolitan housing price-to-income ratios, decrease homelessness rates, and help lower the overall poverty head-count.
- Rolling out e-procurement platforms across provinces will increase bidding transparency, cut the share of single-bid contracts and procurement cost overruns, and boost Vietnam’s ease-of-doing-business standing under the B-READY framework.
- Elevating communes as core administrative units will deepen civic engagement, strengthen social capital and community trust, and stimulate higher volunteerism rates in support of local development programs.
Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - June 16, 2025
News
Media
134
Government
Releases
7
City/State
Releases
0
Embassy
Releases
0
Foreign
Service
Advisories
0
Service
Advisories
0
Academic/
Think
Tank
1
Think
Tank
1
Podcasts
0
Videos
0
Social
Media
0
Business
Releases
2
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Risk Categories Reported on Today
Risk Category
Items Reported On
Natural Disasters
7
Crime
1
Extreme Weather Events
5
Accidents
8
Pollution
2
Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
2
Climate Change
1
Regulation
1
IP Protection
1
Protest, Demonstration, Dissent
2
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Operations Categories Reported on Today
Operations Category
Items Reported On
Bizdev-Partnering
2
Trade Issues and Numbers
3
Tech Development/Adoption
2
Mergers & Acquisitions
2
Taxes
4
Investor Sentiment
1
Bankruptcy-Insolvency
1
Budgets-Budgeting
1
Real Estate
1
Economic Growth
1
Asset Price Change
1
Việt Nam lên tiếng việc trở thành nước đối tác của nhóm BRICS
Vietnam speaks out about becoming a partner country of the BRICS group
Dantri | Local Language | News | June 16, 2025 | UndeterminedBizdev-Partnering
On June 14, Vietnam's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Pham Thu Hang confirmed that Vietnam has officially become a partner country of the BRICS Group of Emerging Economies, following Brazil's announcement. She highlighted Vietnam's commitment to integrating into the international community and contributing to peace, stability, and development through participation in various multilateral mechanisms such as the United Nations and the ASEAN.
Pham Thu Hang expressed that Vietnam's partnership with BRICS reflects its desire to enhance the voice and role of developing countries and promote inclusive multilateralism in accordance with international law. She emphasized that this partnership aligns with Vietnam’s foreign policy of independence, self-reliance, and active engagement as a trustworthy player in the international arena.
Brazil, as the current holder of the BRICS rotating presidency, noted Vietnam’s significance as an important Asian partner that aligns with BRICS’ goals of promoting a fairer international order. With this recognition, Vietnam joins the ranks of nine other partner countries, including Belarus and Malaysia, strengthening ties within the bloc focused on global cooperation and governance reform.
Nhật Bản và Hoa Kỳ có khả năng sắp đạt được thỏa thuận thương mại
Japan and the United States are likely to reach a trade deal soon.
VTV News | Local Language | News | June 16, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers
Japan's top tariff negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, indicated that Japan and the United States are exploring the possibility of a trade deal following recent discussions in Washington. Akazawa met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Minister Howard Lutnick on June 13, emphasizing that they had detailed conversations regarding a potential agreement but did not disclose how close they are to finalizing it.
The negotiations may culminate in a deal during a forthcoming meeting between Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and U.S. President Donald Trump in Canada, coinciding with the G7 leaders summit. Akazawa noted that reaching a deal would require joint approval from both leaders as a complete package. Additionally, he did not provide insights on the likelihood of an agreement being struck at the upcoming conference.
Japan is facing an impending increase in tariffs, with a 24% tariff set to take effect in July if a deal is not reached. Furthermore, Japan is advocating for an exemption from the 25% tariff on cars, which is vital for its largest industry, the automotive sector.
U.S. Issues Preliminary Results of 19th Administrative Review (POR19) on Anti-Dumping Duty for Vietnamese Shrimp Exports
ASL Law Firm | English | AcademicThink | June 16, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers
On June 7, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) released its preliminary findings in the 19th administrative review (POR19) concerning the anti-dumping duty (ADD) order on frozen warmwater shrimp imports from Vietnam, covering the period from February 1, 2023, to January 31, 2024. This review is crucial for Vietnam's seafood sector, with the U.S. being a key export market. A total of 24 Vietnamese exporters submitted separate rate applications, with two selected as mandatory respondents.
The DOC determined that one of the two mandatory respondents received a 0% anti-dumping duty rate, while the other was assigned a 35.29% rate due to insufficient cooperation during the investigation. This inflated margin arises from the application of adverse facts available (AFA). Notably, the 0% rate cannot be applied as a basis for calculating the weighted-average separate rate for other cooperating exporters; thus, the DOC utilized the 35.29% rate to set a separate rate for the remaining 22 exporters. Companies that did not file separate rate applications remain subject to the unchanged Vietnam-wide rate of 25.67%.
For this review, the DOC has chosen Indonesia as the primary surrogate country for normal value calculations, owing to its economic similarity to Vietnam, significant shrimp production, and reliable data. However, for specific production factors like shrimp larvae, data from India will be employed. Manufacturers and exporters are encouraged to engage with Vietnamese law firms experienced in anti-dumping and trade remedies, such as ASL Law, to protect their interests and receive timely assistance.
Contact us for a free trial of the Daily Briefing for your country of choice.
We currently cover:
South KoreaJapan
China
Taiwan
Vietnam
India
info@eruditerisk.com
The Daily Briefing is delivered Monday through Thursday via email.
Each day's reports include a combination of:
Takes
Takes are our deep dives into a topic of enduring interest or concern. Takes include copious references to all the media resources we gathered to build them.
Developments
Developments are key issues and incidents being heavily reported on in country. These are the centers of local thought gravity around which everything else revolves.
Risk Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important risk issues reported on in media, arranged by risk category. Learn about risk trends and issues while they are developing--before they blow up.
Ops Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important operational issues reported on in media, arranged by operations category. See what's changing in your market, and what's not.
Government Releases
Government press and data releases on key economic data, regulation, law, intiatives, incidents. Straight from the government's press to your eyes in less than a day.
Embassy and Business Association Releases
Statements and news releases from foreign embassies and business/industry associations, including chambers of commerce.
The Daily Briefing is comprehensive!
The Daily Briefing can run 50-100 pages each day!
Luckily, Erudite Risk tailors every report specifically to you.
Content Filtering
We try hard to ensure that every piece of information included in each day's reports will be of interest to our readers.
To fulfill our goal of comprehensively monitoring the intelligence landscape and also keeping reports readable, we build big reports--then deliver only the information that applies to you.
Each Daily Briefing is a bespoke report matched to your concerns. Tell us what you want in it, or we can match it to your professional needs. It's that easy.