Vietnam

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Vietnam Gold Market Developments and Policy Responses
Nov. 20, 2025 | Financial System

Vietnam’s substantial private gold reserves present both a significant opportunity and a challenge for economic policy.

**Vietnam’s public holds an estimated 300–500 tons of gold, equivalent to about 8% of GDP, creating significant untapped resources.**
Mobilizing these holdings for economic use faces challenges due to the inefficiency of storing physical gold and the need for a long-term, confidence-building approach rather than a rushed campaign.

**Economic expert Nguyễn Trí Hiếu attributes recent high returns to a shift in public demand from real estate, stocks, and bank savings toward gold investment.**
He argues that successful mobilization requires reducing monopolies, broadening participation rights for enterprises and banks, ensuring transparent gold circulation, and developing secure investment products.

**Dr.**
Cấn Văn Lực of BIDV calls for a precise assessment of public gold holdings and full transparency of that data. He recommends maintaining strict control over gold bars and ingots to preserve financial stability while applying more flexible management to jewelry and artisanal gold. To limit systemic risk, he proposes suspending gold borrowing and lending, lowering processing costs, standardizing gold bar specifications, and expanding transparent investment channels to curb speculative demand.

**Ngô Trí Long proposes establishing a dedicated gold exchange to modernize market supervision and control.**
A functional exchange would monitor transactions, market flows, volatility, and risks in real time, enabling the State to set position limits and transaction caps. By linking physical market data with monetary policy indicators, the exchange would improve management of exchange rates, inflation, and macroeconomic stability. Recent legal reforms, including Decree 232, have expanded regulatory scope and introduced pilot derivative instruments, laying the groundwork for a modern gold management model aligned with international standards.

**Gold leasing platforms such as SafeGold and Goldstrom have emerged to bridge supply and demand.**
Total rented gold on these platforms rose from USD 2 million to USD 40 million this year as wealthy individuals lease gold bars to jewelry companies and craftsmen. Borrowers pay interest of 2–4% in gold, gaining access to capital without exposure to price volatility or the need for complex hedging strategies.

**These leasing arrangements carry counterparty risks, including default, delayed returns, and substitution with impure gold.**
Market participants mitigate these risks through rigorous verification, RFID tracking, surveillance, regular audits, comprehensive insurance, real-time monitoring, and explicit collateral seizure rights. Historical data indicate low default rates, and some Middle Eastern leasing models have operated without any defaults since 2006.

**On November 19 in Vietnam, SJC gold bars rose by VND 1.4 million per tael to VND 148.7 million for buyers and VND 150.7 million for sellers, following a VND 1.7 million drop the previous day.**
The buy-sell spread has held steady at VND 2 million per tael. After reaching a near-record peak of VND 154.5 million per tael last week, prices have declined by VND 5.3 million, leaving recent purchasers facing potential losses of around VND 7.3 million per tael if they sell now.

**Internationally, gold prices have fallen for three consecutive sessions to USD 4,062 per ounce, pressured by a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations of a December interest rate cut.**
Investors await upcoming US economic data—including the September jobs report and Federal Reserve meeting minutes—to clarify monetary policy direction. Key Fed officials have cautioned against premature rate reductions, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate cut next month falling from over 60% to 41%.
Leadership Transitions Reshape Provincial Governance in Vietnam
Nov. 20, 2025 | Governance & Law

Vietnam’s central and provincial Party Committees conducted high‐level personnel changes across Nghe An, Tay Ninh, and Dong Nai provinces between November 17 and 18, 2025.

**In Nghe An Province, the Central Secretariat on November 17 transferred Vo Trong Hai from his roles as deputy secretary of the Ha Tinh Provincial Party Committee and chairman of the Ha Tinh People’s Committee to the Executive and Standing Committees of Nghe An.**
The following day, the Nghe An People’s Council unanimously approved him as chairman of the Nghe An People’s Committee for the 2025–2030 term, replacing Le Hong Vinh, who was dismissed and relieved of his council delegate status after reassignment. The council also removed Nguyen Duc Trung from his delegate role after his appointment as deputy secretary of the Hanoi Party Committee and chairman of the Hanoi People’s Committee. Born in 1968 in Ha Tinh, Vo holds a command officer degree from the Border Defense University and a law degree. He has led Ha Tinh’s Border Guard, chaired the Party Committee’s Internal Affairs Commission, directed police departments in both Ha Tinh and Nghe An, earned a promotion to major general in September 2020, and served as Ha Tinh People’s Committee chairman from April 2021 until his reassignment. In his inaugural address, he pledged to act with determination and innovation to meet early development targets and to drive sustainable growth and momentum across Nghe An.

**Meanwhile, in Tay Ninh Province, the 6th special session of the 10th Tay Ninh People’s Council on November 18 accepted Nguyen Van Ut’s resignation as chairman of the People’s Committee and as a provincial delegate for the 2021–2026 term, following his reassignment by the Party Central Secretariat to Dong Nai.**
The council then elected Le Van Han as the new chairman for the same term. Born in 1970 in Vinh Long, Han holds bachelor’s degrees in Literature Education and Public Administration and a master’s in Educational Management. He led the Tra Vinh People’s Committee from November 2020 to June 2025, served as deputy secretary of the Vinh Long Provincial Party Committee and chair of the Vietnam Fatherland Front chapter after Vinh Long Province’s merger, and sat on the Vinh Long Provincial Party Committee’s Executive and Standing Committees for the 2025–2030 term before his reassignment to Tay Ninh.

**On the same day in Dong Nai, the 7th session of the 10th Provincial People’s Council dismissed Vo Tan Duc as chairman of the People’s Committee and unanimously elected Nguyen Van Ut—formerly deputy secretary of the Dong Nai Provincial Party Committee—to the chairmanship with 100 percent of votes.**
Earlier, the Dong Nai Provincial Party Committee announced the Politburo’s decision appointing Ut to its Provincial Party Committee, Standing Committee, and as deputy secretary for the 2025–2030 term. Aged 56 and native to Tay Ninh Province, Ut holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in economics. He has led Duc Hoa District, held posts in Long An Province, and chaired the restructured Tay Ninh Province before this reassignment. In his remarks, he thanked his colleagues for their trust and vowed to pursue collaborative, consultative leadership to strengthen Dong Nai’s role as a growth engine for the Southeast region.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Nov. 20, 2025


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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Cần hơn 208.000 tỷ đồng làm sạch đất ô nhiễm bom mìn

More than 208,000 billion VND needed to clean up land contaminated by bombs and mines

VN Express | Local Language | News | Nov. 21, 2025 | Man-made Environmental Disasters

As of September 2025, Vietnam still has 5.56 million hectares of land contaminated by explosive ordnance, representing nearly 17% of the country’s area. Dangerous explosives including bombs, submunitions, artillery shells, and mortar rounds continue to be found, particularly in central provinces, the Central Highlands, Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh City. The Ministry of National Defense estimates that cleaning the land to a depth of 0.5 meters will cost over 208,000 billion VND, at about 37.5 million VND per hectare, with the process expected to take several decades to centuries.

Currently, 280 military teams with over 5,000 personnel are engaged in surveys and clearance, capable of cleaning 30,000 to 35,000 hectares yearly, implying it would take roughly 150 years to complete the work. To finish within 40 years, the number of teams must increase to approximately 600 with 9,000 people, requiring annual funding of about 5,000 billion VND. From 2006 to 2025, 901 people were killed or injured due to explosive ordnance incidents, many caused by civilians handling explosives or accidents during clearance.

Despite a 15-year goal to clear 1.3 million hectares, only about 527,000 hectares (40%) have been cleared to date. Challenges include the lack of unified legal frameworks for risk classification, insufficient technological tools such as UAVs and magnetometer sensors, and disparities in policies supporting clearance personnel — many incentives apply mainly to military officers, not to laborers engaged in this dangerous work.

The draft Ordinance on remedying explosive ordnance consequences proposes creating standardized risk classification criteria based on contamination level, accident frequency, and socio-economic impact. It aims to develop safety criteria for land use, resettlement, and investment, alongside a publicly accessible national risk map integrated with planning and infrastructure systems. The Ministry of National Defense also proposes insurance and livelihood support policies for clearance personnel and victims, with the ordinance setting principles for government regulation.

Vietnam remains heavily contaminated due to extensive U.S. ordnance use during the war, with 15.35 million tons deployed and an estimated 800,000 tons unexploded after 1975.

'Ngưỡng chịu thuế với hộ kinh doanh tối thiểu phải 500 triệu đồng'

Tax threshold for business households must be at least 500 million VND

VN Express | Local Language | News | Nov. 21, 2025 | UndeterminedTaxes

Professor Hoang Van Cuong proposed raising the taxable revenue threshold for business households from the draft Personal Income Tax law’s suggested 200 million VND to at least 500 million VND. He argued that taxing revenue at 200 million VND is unreasonable because, after deducting costs, the actual profit margin is very low, making personal income tax untenable. Cuong also highlighted that current personal deductions require a much higher income level to justify taxation, estimating that a 2.6 billion VND revenue should be the threshold for tax liability.

Cuong suggested differentiated thresholds, with service businesses beginning taxation at 500 million VND per year and other sectors starting from 1 billion VND or more. Similarly, delegate Pham Van Hoa supported raising the threshold to 500 million VND, stating that the 200 million VND limit does not cover living expenses for typical households. Nguyen Van Chi, Deputy Head of the Economic and Financial Committee, emphasized that a 200 million VND revenue translates to an unrealistically low profit compared to personal deductions and that abolishing the lump-sum tax system would increase tax burdens on business households. She also pointed out the lack of tax exemptions or reductions for business households relative to higher-income individuals and salaried workers.

As of the end of 2024, Vietnam has about 3.6 million business households and individual businesses, with 1.3 million having revenue above the current taxable threshold of 100 million VND per year. Minister Nguyen Van Thang acknowledged the complexity of taxing business households and noted a 64% increase in tax payments following IT applications. He stated the Ministry of Finance is reviewing the taxable threshold to ensure fairness and will consider feedback from delegates before the National Assembly votes on the amended Personal Income Tax Law on December 10, 2025.

Đường đèo Mimosa ở Đà Lạt nứt toác, suýt cuốn ôtô khách

Mimosa Pass Road in Da Lat Cracks Open, Nearly Sweeps Away Passenger Car

VN Express | Local Language | News | Nov. 21, 2025 | Accidents

At around 11 p.m. on November 19, the road surface at the final section of Mimosa Pass in Xuan Huong ward, Da Lat, collapsed due to a landslide, creating a large hole that nearly swallowed a Phuong Trang passenger bus. The bus's front wheel fell into the sinkhole, leaving the vehicle precariously perched at the edge. Rain, slippery conditions, and limited visibility contributed to the incident. Only the driver was on the bus and managed to escape unharmed.

This incident occurred about one kilometer from a location where a tree fell earlier that day. Authorities have closed Mimosa Pass to ensure safety and are working to remove the bus with a crane. This event follows a previous landslide on the pass two days earlier.

Mimosa Pass is an 11 km stretch of National Highway 20 and serves as one of Da Lat's main southern access routes alongside Prenn and Sacom passes. Recently, the Prenn pass near Datanla waterfall has suffered prolonged landslides, increasing traffic pressure in the area. Landslides have also affected other passes in the region, including D’ran Pass on National Highway 20, Ngoan Muc Pass on National Highway 27, and Khanh Le Pass on National Highway 27C, disrupting travel between Da Lat and Nha Trang.

Due to these incidents, vehicles must detour through Ta Nung Pass on Provincial Road 725, adding 30–35 km to the journey. The ongoing heavy rains have caused significant erosion and instability across several key routes leading to Da Lat.

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