Vietnam

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Vietnam’s Central Bank Adopts Flexible Policy Amid External Pressures and Sector Resilience in 2025
Dec. 8, 2025 | Financial System

Vietnam’s central bank is implementing a flexible monetary approach to manage external pressures, stabilize the domestic economy and sustain credit expansion.

**Amid geopolitical tensions, rising trade protectionism and unpredictable policies from major central banks, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has adopted a proactive stance for late 2025 into 2026.**
It aims to curb inflation, steady the macroeconomy and support sustainable growth. Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha stressed the SBV’s readiness to adjust policy tools as conditions evolve, coordinating with fiscal and macroeconomic measures to address uncertainties from tariffs, climate impacts and shifts in international financial markets.

**To maintain market liquidity and credit momentum, the SBV continues to provide liquidity support to commercial banks through various instruments, especially during the year-end spike in demand.**
It manages the exchange rate based on market signals and has cut lending rates to sustain credit growth. By late November 2025, outstanding credit had climbed to VND 18.2 million billion, a 16.56 percent year-on-year rise that outpaced last year’s growth. Inflation remained contained, with the Consumer Price Index up 3.29 percent over 11 months and core inflation at 3.21 percent, while GDP expanded about 7.85 percent in the first nine months.

**The SBV and government ministries launched targeted relief for areas hit by heavy rains, storms and floods.**
They instructed credit institutions to assess damage, restructure repayment terms and reduce interest rates by 0.5–2 percent for three to six months, benefiting nearly 24,000 borrowers holding around VND 14,000 billion in loans. Banks also rolled out a VND 70 trillion production-recovery package, disbursing about VND 1,500 billion to 6,500 clients in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. The Vietnam Bank for Social Policies cut lending rates by 2 percent for affected households and plans roughly VND 1,100 billion in subsidies in Q4 2025, with a proposed additional VND 300 billion for storm-damaged customers.

**Complementing these measures, the Ministry of Finance allocated more than VND 6,800 billion from the 2025 central budget for emergency disaster response and recovery in impacted localities.**
Tax and fee policies now allow deferments, extensions and deductions for losses from natural disasters, under detailed guidance to ensure accessibility. Insurance firms must speed up indemnity payments to help businesses and individuals recover more quickly.

**Vietnam’s banking sector remained resilient in 2025, supported by capital increases, rising non-interest income, proactive bad-debt resolution and improved asset quality.**
Problem loans held steady at 2.3 percent, while new non-performing loans fell by 30 basis points in the first nine months. Major banks—BIDV, VietinBank, ACB and Techcombank—drove these gains through robust debt recovery and conservative credit management, especially in mortgages. Strong dividend payouts and positive investor sentiment bolstered bank stocks and overall sector momentum.

**Pockets of risk persist.**
Military Bank carries exposure to renewable energy clients; Sacombank’s SME import-export and aviation portfolios remain under pressure; and Tien Phong Bank and HDBank report rising overdue mortgage loans. VIS Rating expects the industry’s non-performing loan ratio to fall another 10–20 basis points by year-end, supported by accelerated write-offs and amendments to the Law on Credit Institutions that boost transparency and speed up recovery. Profitability varies: large banks benefit from diversified income, strong non-interest income growth and better risk absorption, while mid-to-small institutions face narrower net interest margins, higher funding costs and a declining CASA ratio, now at 19 percent industry-wide. Continued macroeconomic and regulatory support will prove vital to containing localized liquidity and credit risks through year-end.
Vietnam Accelerates Road and Expressway Projects Following Storm Recovery
Dec. 8, 2025 | Infrastructure & Urbanization

Vietnam is advancing several major road infrastructure and highway expansion projects to strengthen its transport network and recover from recent storm damage.

**In November 2025, Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính convened a government meeting to assess infrastructure recovery and development after heavy rains caused landslides on locally managed national highways.**
Repair crews are clearing debris and stabilizing slopes at eight locations where roadways remain closed. On the Vân Phong–Chí Thạnh expressway, severe erosion has damaged the roadbed; targeted repairs should finish by December 30.

**Vietnam’s expressway network will reach 3,188 kilometers by the end of 2025, surpassing the 3,000-kilometer target established by Resolution 50/NQ-CP in 2021.**
Factoring in interchanges and junctions, the network will total at least 3,513 kilometers, complemented by 1,701 kilometers of newly upgraded coastal roads. Inspection teams from the Ministry of Construction and other agencies are completing final checks to confirm that all projects meet standards ahead of their December 19 openings.

**Thirty-four provinces and ministries have registered 239 large-scale projects, worth roughly 1,240,537 billion dong, for groundbreaking or inauguration on December 19, financed 44 percent by the state budget.**
Two additional major projects in Hanoi could raise total investment above 2 million billion dong. Preparations such as land clearance for the Lào Cai–Hanoi–Haiphong railway are proceeding on schedule for the same opening date.

**The 110.8-kilometer Can Tho–Ca Mau expressway is more than 90 percent complete and due to open on December 19, 2025.**
Managed by the My Thuan Project Management Board, the 17-meter-wide route has received over 27,500 billion dong in investment. Crews are finishing asphalt paving at the IC2 interchange, applying lane markings, installing safety barriers and emergency stopping strips every 5 kilometers. Interchanges IC5, which connects to National Highway 61, and IC4 are in final asphalt, tamping and signage installation phases. More than 1,150 machines and 2,100 workers operate in multi-shift schedules, including night shifts when weather permits.

**Work on the Ring Road 2.5 section from Đầm Hồng to National Highway 1A, approved in 2002 but paused at 40 percent completion by 2020, resumed in May 2025 with a planned Q1 2026 finish.**
Teams are laying asphalt, building medians and drainage, installing utilities and landscaping with palm and shade trees. They have cast 118 of 120 girders for the L3 bridge over the Sông Lừ river, and the Kim Đồng underpass is over 70 percent complete. Land disputes and pending household clearances remain the main constraints; local wards are coordinating to address these issues.

**The 2.3-kilometer Thanh Hoa–Sam Son landscape axis road, funded with over 631 billion dong, falls behind schedule owing to land clearance issues across 17.2 hectares involving 589 households.**
Authorities have secured 13 hectares for 424 households, but 4.2 hectares covering 165 households, including an ancestral tomb complex, remain unresolved, delaying construction. Scattered materials around the Sam Son junction force traffic detours and some concrete pillars show rust. On December 2, the Thanh Hoa Provincial People’s Committee ordered relevant units to complete land clearance, resettlement and grave relocations by 2026.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Dec. 8, 2025


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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Thêm 41 cửa khẩu cho phép người nước ngoài xuất, nhập cảnh bằng e-visa

Add 41 Border Gates Allowing Foreigners to Enter and Exit via E-Visa

Dantri | Local Language | News | Dec. 8, 2025 | UndeterminedPolitical Policy Resistance

The Vietnamese government has issued Resolution No. 389, expanding the list of international border gates that accept electronic visas (e-visas) for foreigners entering and exiting the country. This adds 41 new gates—4 air, 11 land, and 26 seaport—bringing the total number of e-visa enabled border gates nationwide to 83.

Among the new air border gates are Long Thanh International Airport in Dong Nai, expected to begin operations in 2026, and Gia Binh International Airport in Bac Ninh, projected to be completed by the end of 2025. Gia Binh Airport will support missions of the Police Air Regiment. Since August 2023, Vietnam has allowed electronic visa issuance to citizens of all countries and territories, permitting stays of up to 90 days with multiple entries and exits, establishing one of the region’s most open visa policies.

The newly added air border gates include Long Thanh International Airport and Gia Binh International Airport (pending operation), Vinh International Airport, and Chu Lai International Airport. The 11 new land border gates span various provinces such as Lang Son, Lao Cai, Cao Bang, and others. The 26 seaport border gates cover multiple provinces including Quang Ninh, Ninh Binh, Quang Tri, Da Nang, Khanh Hoa, and Ca Mau. These additions facilitate greater international travel and trade access through Vietnam’s expanded e-visa network.

Chính phủ tuyên chiến "quét sạch hàng giả, xử lý cán bộ tiếp tay sai phạm"

The government declares war to eradicate counterfeit goods and handle officials who collude in violations

Dantri | Local Language | News | Dec. 8, 2025 | Corporate Corruption or Fraud

The Government has issued Resolution No. 397, outlining an action plan through 2030 to combat smuggling, commercial fraud, counterfeit goods, and infringements of intellectual property rights. The plan aims to eradicate these violations entirely by implementing strict measures and emphasizing the protection of legitimate rights for people and businesses. Enforcement efforts have already uncovered significant quantities of counterfeit products, such as clothing bearing Nike, Adidas, and Puma labels.

A key objective is ensuring that 100% of officials, civil servants, and public employees maintain professional ethics, responsibility, capacity, and integrity while performing their duties, with no tolerance for those who cover up or support violations. The Government mandates that inspection activities must not disrupt lawful business operations and expects all anti-counterfeiting agencies to be fully equipped in finance, technology, digital transformation, and database management to effectively monitor goods.

The Government has secured commitments from all major e-commerce platforms and social networks to avoid trading or advertising counterfeit or substandard goods. To enhance enforcement, coordinated measures include stricter licensing and conformity assessments, improved inter-agency and local authority collaboration, and stronger controls at borders and checkpoints. Additionally, the plan emphasizes the adoption of modern technology in goods management and calls for increased communication to raise public awareness about the risks of smuggling and counterfeit goods, discouraging citizen complicity in such violations.

11 tháng: Thu ngân sách vượt 21% dự toán, xuất nhập khẩu bùng nổ

11 months: Budget revenue exceeds 21% of the estimate, exports and imports boom

Dantri | Local Language | News | Dec. 8, 2025 | UndeterminedBudgets-Budgeting

As of November 2025, Vietnam's economic indicators show strong performance, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 3.29% year-on-year. State budget revenue reached nearly 2.4 million billion VND, or 121.9% of the estimate, marking a 30.9% increase compared to the previous year. The budget deficit and public debt remain well controlled, while energy and food security are maintained. Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains robust, with total registered capital at nearly 33.7 billion USD (up 7.4%) and implemented capital at 23.6 billion USD (up 8.9%).

The trade sector performed strongly, with total export-import turnover growing 17.2% to nearly 840 billion USD, resulting in a trade surplus of 20.53 billion USD. Retail sales and consumer services revenue increased 9.1%, and international arrivals rose by 20.9% to 19.15 million. Industrial production also grew, with the industrial production index (IIP) rising 10.8% year-on-year for the 11-month period. Twenty localities are expected to achieve GRDP growth rates of 8% or higher in 2025, including six with double-digit growth.

Despite these achievements, challenges remain. Public investment disbursement was only 60.6% of the plan, with key projects delayed by natural disasters such as landslides and flooding. Private investment and large-scale FDI attraction underperformed expectations. Natural disasters reduced quarter four GRDP growth in several provinces and negatively impacted national GDP growth. Additional risks include external market uncertainties, U.S. tariff policies, smuggling, commercial fraud, counterfeit goods, and ongoing air pollution in major urban areas. Institutional and legal reforms are progressing but not at the required pace.

Minister of Finance Nguyễn Văn Thắng called for proactive efforts from agencies and localities to implement laws, maintain macroeconomic stability, and control inflation. Emphasis was placed on disaster prevention and response, stabilizing livelihoods, and restoring production. Preparations for major political events, including the 11th National Patriotic Emulation Congress and the 14th Party Congress, are underway alongside plans for inauguration ceremonies of large-scale projects. Continued focus is directed toward improving institutions, administrative reform, investment promotion, consumption stimulation, science and technology development, innovation, digital transformation, export growth, sustainable trade, social development, and preparations for the Lunar New Year.

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