Vietnam

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Surging Prices and Policy Shifts Reshape Vietnam’s Real Estate Market

Jan. 15, 2026 | Firms

Vietnam’s real estate market has experienced significant price surges, policy interventions, and shifting investment patterns across sectors.

**Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính opened the 5th Central Steering Committee session on January 13, 2026 by demanding a clampdown on speculation and inflated prices in commercial housing and apartments, emphasizing that housing must remain accessible as an essential need.**
The Ministry of Construction reported that apartment prices climbed 20–30 percent over the past year, with some areas seeing increases above 40 percent, and adjacent houses and land plots rose substantially as well.

**The Prime Minister directed the Ministry of Finance to study tax measures that discourage speculation and channel investment into productive sectors.**
The ministry had proposed a 20 percent tax on the price difference in real estate transfers but withdrew it, leaving the current 2 percent transfer value tax intact. According to the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers, more than 75 percent of transactions in 2025 involved buyers acquiring second or multiple homes, reflecting investment-driven demand.

**The State Bank of Vietnam must tighten controls on real estate credit and implement risk management policies tied to property lending.**
By the end of Q3 2025, banks’ real estate loans reached about 1.82 million billion đồng—up 35 percent year-on-year—and accounted for roughly 10 percent of total outstanding loans. The State Bank expects credit growth of around 15 percent in 2026, depending on economic conditions.

**The Ministry of Construction will devise mechanisms to supply housing for middle-income groups (earning above 20 million đồng per month) and instruct local authorities to assess demand for social rental housing and units for public officials.**
It plans to expedite procedures for social housing, especially rental projects. Seventeen provinces and cities reported rental demands totaling over 67,100 units, although Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have yet to submit their figures.

**Southern Vietnam’s real estate market saw a surge in mergers and acquisitions in 2025 after nearly three years of stagnation, signaling intense consolidation.**
Domestic developers restructured portfolios to ease financial pressures, and well-capitalized investors bought land with clear legal status. Notable deals included DIC Group’s transfer of four subdivisions in the Dai Phuoc eco-tourism urban area for nearly VND 3 trillion; LDG Group’s sale of the LDG Sky residential project in Thu Duc City; Ngan Hiep Real Estate’s acquisition of over 30 million SEA shares for more than VND 1 trillion to secure a prime plot in District 1; and Son Kim Land’s effective control of the Saigon Broadway project. Foreign investors lost ground to domestic players in major deals, though CapitaLand Tower acquired over 150 hectares in the Vinhomes Green Paradise project in Can Gio for nearly VND 17.5 trillion. Avison Young noted declines in both the number and average value of M&A transactions in 2025 compared with the 2021–2022 boom, with longer negotiations as buyers focused on legal due diligence and risk assessment.

**Most deals took place in Ho Chi Minh City (15 in the central urban area and one in Binh Duong), while satellite cities around Hanoi accounted for eleven transactions and one deal occurred in central Vietnam.**
Avison Young observed that long-term capital shifted toward satellite cities, driven by strong housing demand, decentralization, and rapid infrastructure development, as buyers reposition assets for future growth.

**Apartment prices continued to rise sharply in 2025, especially in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.**
In Q3, the average primary sale price reached about 95 million VND/m² in Hanoi and 91 million VND/m² in Ho Chi Minh City, with many central projects listing between 120 and 150 million VND/m². More than 43 percent of new apartments on the primary market carried prices above 120 million VND/m². The Vietnam Real Estate Market Research Institute found that prices since 2019 have climbed by 96.2 percent in Hanoi, 77.1 percent in Da Nang, and 56.9 percent in Ho Chi Minh City. Many projects reported sharp unit price increases of several hundred million to over one billion VND, despite limited improvements in infrastructure or quality.

**As of January 13, 2026, Deputy Minister of Construction Nguyễn Văn Sinh reported that Vietnam’s real estate market comprised 2,169 commercial housing and urban area projects, 698 social housing projects, and 548 infrastructure projects for land transfers to individuals.**
After a recovery since 2022 produced 580,437 transactions in 2025, housing prices continued to rise by 10–15 percent annually for apartments, townhouses, villas, and land plots, while prices in tourism, commercial, office, and industrial real estate grew at a slower pace.

**Inventory levels for apartments, detached houses, and land plots increased compared with Q3 2025, with apartments and detached houses reaching about 138 percent of that quarter’s stock.**
The Ministry of Construction pointed to a supply focused mainly on mid-to-high-end segments, a lack of affordable housing for industrial workers and low-income groups, project delays due to legal issues, and inefficient use of land and capital as factors driving prices higher.

**Experts including Nguyễn Văn Đính of the Vietnam Real Estate Association cited a persistent mismatch in supply, noting that appropriately priced apartments are almost nonexistent and that a limited rental market intensifies home-ownership demand, further driving up prices.**
They recommend developing rental housing for workers and expanding social and affordable commercial housing to meet broader demand and stabilize the market.

**Dr.**
Nguyễn Sĩ Dũng identified institutional and procedural costs as major barriers that push developers toward high-end projects. He called for reducing these costs, ensuring legal security for public officials, and offering attractive incentives for producing reasonably priced commercial housing, while warning against complex dual-pricing mechanisms.

**The Ministry of Construction will review housing laws and policies for consistency and practicality, streamline investment procedures, enhance administrative reforms, and apply digital transformation to housing and real estate management.**
It will also push localities to implement the National Housing Development Strategy 2021–2030 and align housing development with actual demand to balance supply and prices.

**The 2026 agenda includes advancing a government resolution to develop at least one million social housing units by 2030, establishing a National Housing Fund, continuing demolition of unsafe houses, improving housing data systems through integration of multiple government databases, increasing transparency, strengthening inspection and enforcement of laws, and considering the creation of a state-run Real Estate and Land Use Rights Trading Center to support market stability and development.**

### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**

Domain	Causal Chain	Possible Outcome
Households	(House-price-to-income ratio ↑ → Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Precautionary savings gap ↑)	Widening precautionary savings gaps cut discretionary spending and dampen consumption growth.
Households	(Household debt-service ratio ↑ → Household loan-delinquency rate ↑ → Consumer confidence diffusion index ↓ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑)	Increased consumption volatility complicates macroeconomic management and undermines stable growth.
Financial System	(Credit-to-GDP gap ↑ → Financial-conditions index ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↑ → Shadow-bank default cascades ↑)	Heightened crash risk could trigger widespread defaults in shadow banks and amplify financial instability.
Governance & Law	(Policy-implementation speed ↓ → Public-investment execution ratio ↓ → Infrastructure-quality index ↓ → Urban productivity premium ↓)	Slower policy execution and poorer infrastructure depress urban productivity and competitiveness.
Infrastructure & Urbanization	(Construction-permit issuance time ↑ → Housing-affordability index ↓ → Informal-settlement growth rate ↑ → Informal-settlement population share ↑)	Delays in permits fuel informal settlements, straining municipal services and exacerbating urban inequality.
Firms	(Market concentration trend ↑ → SME loan-rejection rate ↑ → Business-formation rate ↓ → Employment growth in the business sector ↓)	Tighter SME lending and lower start-ups slow job creation and hinder inclusive business-sector growth.
Macroeconomics & Growth	(Credit impulse (% GDP) ↑ → Asset-price wealth effect ↑ → Private consumption growth volatility ↑ → Output gap (% GDP) ↓)	Consumption swings widen the output gap, complicating policy efforts to stabilize growth.
Households	(Housing cost-to-income burden ↑ → Income-volatility (monthly) ↑ → Social-trust composite swing ↓ → Residential protest vandalism rate ↑)	Rising housing stress erodes social trust and can spur protest-related vandalism.
Politics	(Policy-uncertainty index deviation ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↓ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↓ → Potential GDP growth revision ↓)	Heightened policy uncertainty reduces FDI and business investment, prompting downward revisions to potential GDP growth.
Financial System	(Asset-price valuation metrics ↓ → Housing-market crash probability ↓ → Financial-conditions index ↑ → Credit-availability index (SME loan approval) ↑)	Valuation corrections ease crash risk, improving conditions and boosting SME credit availability.

### BOTTOM LINE

- Key recent developments include rapid residential price growth (20–40% in the past year and nearly doubling in Hanoi since 2019), a 35% year-on-year expansion in bank real-estate lending to VND 1.82 million billion, an announced government clampdown on speculation with potential transaction taxes, and a wave of domestic M&A consolidating prime land into fewer, well-capitalized firms.

- Core drivers behind these developments are strong investment-driven demand (more than 75% of 2025 buyers acquiring second or multiple homes), abundant and cheaper credit flowing into property, a persistent mismatch between available supply and affordability (market skewed to mid/high-end products), and legal/administrative frictions that favor high-margin projects over affordable housing.

- A primary causal chain runs from rising prices to expanding mortgage and developer credit, which increases household debt-service burdens and financial-system exposure and therefore raises the probability of loan performance deterioration if credit conditions tighten or prices correct.

- Another causal link runs from policy responses (anti-speculation measures, proposed transfer taxes, tighter lending rules) to short-term transaction slowdown and longer due-diligence cycles, which will likely reduce liquidity and prolong development timelines while potentially cooling speculative price momentum.

- Consolidation in the developer sector is causally connected to earlier financial strain and will raise market concentration, which in turn increases counterparty risk for banks and reduces competition for land and projects, likely elevating barriers to entry for SMEs and constraining employment creation in construction and services.

- Because supply growth remains concentrated in mid-to-high-end segments while demand is strong for affordable and rental housing, the most likely near-term social consequence is growing affordability pressure for workers and first-time buyers, increased precautionary household saving, and weaker non-housing consumption growth.

- With real-estate loans already around 10% of outstanding bank credit and rising, the most plausible financial-system ramification is greater sensitivity of bank asset quality to a property market correction, making targeted macroprudential tightening (LTV caps, borrower stress tests, provisioning) a necessary near-term policy lever to avoid broader credit contraction.

- The government’s consideration of a high tax on price differences and orders to tighten credit will reduce speculative flipping if implemented, but a poorly calibrated or abrupt tax will materially reduce market liquidity, encourage tax arbitrage and informal transactions, and could deter some foreign direct investment into real-estate-related projects.

- Practical policy sequencing that reduces downside risk includes immediate tightening of mortgage underwriting standards and macroprudential tools, paired with accelerated approvals and incentives for social and rental housing, a dedicated funding window for affordable‑housing developers, and legal-process reforms to speed title clearance and reduce transaction costs.

- To stabilize expectations and preserve investment, authorities should prioritize clear, phased communication of new rules, publish exposure data (bank real-estate concentrations, developer leverage), and set predictable timelines for any transfer‑tax design so investors can price risk rather than abruptly withdraw liquidity.

- Market monitoring should focus on three leading indicators that will signal systemic stress: quarterly growth in real-estate lending and LTV averages, secondary-market transaction volumes and days-on-market, and non-performing loan flows in banks and shadow-lenders exposed to property; these indicators should trigger pre-defined supervisory actions.

- Firms and investors should prepare for a longer negotiation and due-diligence cycle, prioritize assets with clear legal title and infrastructure connectivity, and shift part of capital allocation toward rental, affordable, and satellite-city projects where demographic and infrastructure trends point to more sustainable demand growth.

Long Thanh International Airport Development Accelerates to Meet Surging Aviation Demand in Vietnam

Jan. 15, 2026 | Infrastructure & Urbanization

Vietnam is expanding its aviation sector by developing Long Thanh International Airport into a future regional hub.

**Long Thanh International Airport spans roughly 5,000 hectares and carries an estimated investment of 337,000 billion dong.**
Built to ICAO 4F standards for more than 100 million passengers annually, Phase 1 facilities were completed between 2021 and 2025 and officially inaugurated on December 19, 2025. Some terminals and runways have already begun handling flights, and full commercial operations are set to start in June 2026.

**After completing Phase 1, the Ministry of Construction appointed the Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) on January 14 to lead Phase 2, except for flight-operation technical infrastructure, which the Vietnam Air Traffic Management Corporation will handle.**
ACV must prepare the feasibility study, explore phased investment plans, allocate sufficient funds to ensure Phase 2’s quality and schedule, and safeguard state capital. Throughout planning and execution, ACV will work closely with the Air Traffic Management Corporation to meet regulatory requirements and operational needs.

**Phase 2 will add a third runway and a second passenger terminal, each designed for 25 million passengers per year, alongside supporting infrastructure to raise annual capacity to 50 million passengers and 1.5 million tonnes of cargo.**
These new assets will complement Phase 1 and accommodate projected traffic growth following the airport’s commercial launch.

**In 2025, Tan Son Nhat Airport handled about 42 million passengers—18 million international and 24 million domestic.**
At Long Thanh’s opening, planners expect to transfer 80 percent of those international travelers and 20 percent of domestic travelers, yielding an initial volume of 17–18 million passengers. At that pace, Phase 1 will reach its 25 million-passenger design capacity within two to three years, reinforcing the urgency of Phase 2.

**Originally slated for 2028–2032, Phase 2 moved forward in response to revised GDP growth forecasts from 2026 and unexpectedly strong air-travel demand.**
The government has proposed amending investment policy to the National Assembly Standing Committee to authorize early implementation of the third runway, leveraging Phase 1 construction resources to reduce costs, shorten timelines, and minimize environmental impact.

**In December 2025, ACV formally requested its role as Phase 2 investor, citing its personnel and machinery already engaged in Phase 1 and the strategic benefits of continuous resource deployment.**
ACV stressed that accelerating Phase 2 will align the airport’s capacity with market demand and optimize use of newly completed infrastructure.

**Phase 2’s success hinges on ACV securing adequate capital and coordinating closely with the Vietnam Air Traffic Management Corporation.**
Completing Phase 2 immediately after Phase 1—by 2025–2026—will position Long Thanh International Airport to handle 50 million passengers and 1.5 million tonnes of cargo annually and establish it as a leading aviation hub in Southeast Asia.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Jan. 16, 2026

News
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131

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26

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1

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0

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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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Thủ tướng chủ trì Phiên họp Ban Chỉ đạo thực hiện cam kết tại COP26

Prime Minister chairs the Steering Committee meeting on implementing commitments at COP26

Bao Dien Tu | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | Climate Change

On January 15, 2026, Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính chaired the Steering Committee meeting to review and advance Vietnam’s implementation of its COP26 climate commitments. The meeting highlighted the severe impact of climate change on Vietnam, citing 21 storms in 2025 that caused 420 deaths, 730 injuries, and economic damage of approximately VND 100 trillion. The Prime Minister emphasized the urgent need for effective adaptation solutions and reiterated that green transition, energy transition, and emissions reductions in key sectors such as energy, agriculture, and transport are strategic priorities for sustainable development.

Significant progress has been made across ministries and sectors. Vietnam has enhanced policy and legal frameworks, participated actively in international climate forums, attracted over USD 1 billion for energy transition, and mobilized VND 750 trillion in green credit. Renewable energy development and green technology initiatives have accelerated, evidenced by the dramatic increase in electric vehicles and green building projects. Notable efforts include the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment's work on carbon credit frameworks, the Ministry of Construction’s promotion of green urban transport infrastructure, and the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s diversification of energy sources and participation in global renewable energy alliances.

Despite achievements, the Prime Minister acknowledged challenges such as slow legal transposition of international commitments, limited effectiveness in some projects under the JETP and AZEC frameworks, and varying levels of engagement from ministries, sectors, and localities. Lessons learned call for flexible adaptation, unified effort, open institutions, and a balanced use of internal and external resources. The government aims to internalize climate adaptation and net-zero goals as national missions, emphasizing the role of people and businesses as key actors.

The Prime Minister outlined five core task groups for the coming period: institutional development aligned with international standards; mechanisms for mobilizing green finance; technology transfer and innovation support; governance models promoting smart, green development; and human resource training for green growth. Specific directives include piloting greenhouse gas emission quota allocation, accelerating the domestic carbon market and carbon credit exchange, greening transportation, advancing renewable energy, expanding green finance, enhancing disaster forecasting using AI, strengthening international climate negotiations, and supporting enterprises in adapting to green standards, including compliance with the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Ministries and agencies were assigned responsibilities to ensure coordinated, comprehensive implementation of these priorities toward achieving Vietnam’s net-zero emissions target by 2050.

Establishing a science and technology research center in Vietnam: 05 key considerations from early 2026

BLawyers Vietnam | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 16, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption

Law No. 93/2025/QH15 on Science, Technology and Innovation (STI Law) came into effect on October 1, 2025, establishing a comprehensive legal framework for scientific research, technology development, and innovation in Vietnam. This law aims to attract high-quality investment, particularly research and development (R&D) projects by both domestic and foreign enterprises. Foreign-invested enterprises (FDIs) are increasingly interested in establishing science and technology research centers, especially in high-tech sectors like cybersecurity, AI, big data, semiconductors, and software development. Proper selection of the legal structure and understanding regulatory procedures are crucial to mitigate legal risks and maximize access to incentives and support.

The STI Law introduces a “Science and Technology Organization” model specifically for R&D centers, distinct from conventional commercial enterprises. This model allows proper legal characterization of R&D activities based on autonomy and results-based evaluation principles. Operating as a science and technology organization ensures compliance and provides a more stable legal foundation, while operating R&D activities as regular commercial enterprises may increase legal risks related to investment, tax, and regulatory oversight.

FDI enterprises can establish science and technology organizations in various forms such as research institutes, centers, laboratories, or specialized R&D centers. To operate lawfully, organizations must have charters and objectives aligned with Vietnamese law, qualified scientific personnel, adequate infrastructure, and compliance with national defense and development requirements. Authorities assess substantive research capacity during establishment reviews rather than mere formal compliance.

After lawful establishment and stable operation, foreign-invested organizations can apply for official recognition as R&D centers. Recognition confirms their research capabilities and grants access to state incentives, including tax benefits, land use priority, financing, and research collaboration opportunities. This recognition is generally pursued after demonstrating long-term research and development capacity.

The STI Law provides various incentive and support mechanisms to encourage R&D activities, especially in high-tech and strategic fields. Benefits include tax incentives, priority land and infrastructure access in specialized economic zones, use of shared facilities, support for communication and trade promotion, research infrastructure support, and talent attraction policies. These incentives depend on operational compliance and applicable policy frameworks.

Enterprises should be aware of practical risks, such as distinguishing science and technology organizations from commercial enterprises for correct licensing, aligning project documentation with STI Law objectives, and complying with regulations on foreign personnel, intellectual property, information security, and technology transfer, especially in sensitive sectors like cybersecurity. Early assessment of eligibility for R&D center recognition is advised to facilitate access to incentives.

BLawyers Vietnam offers legal support in advising on appropriate legal models under the STI Law, assisting with establishment conditions and procedures for foreign-invested science and technology organizations, facilitating recognition applications, and advising on related legal matters including investment, labor, technology, and intellectual property compliance.

Đổi mới toàn diện công tác sát hạch và cấp Giấy phép lái xe

Comprehensive Reform of the Examination and Issuance of Driver's Licenses

Bao Dien Tu | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | Regulation

The Government Office issued Notice No. 26/TB-VPCP on January 14, 2025, summarizing Vietnam's traffic safety outcomes in 2025 and establishing targets for 2026. Despite challenges such as extreme weather and administrative reforms, traffic accidents decreased significantly in 2025, with incidents down over 22%, deaths over 6%, and injuries nearly 30% compared to 2024. Improvements included a stronger legal framework, enhanced law enforcement, and progress in transport infrastructure projects like the North-South Eastern expressways and the Lào Cai - Hà Nội - Hải Phòng railway. However, serious accidents involving commercial vehicles, motorbikes, and students remain prevalent, with ongoing issues in rural areas and urban congestion in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

For 2026, the government aims to halve traffic accidents, deaths, and injuries per 100,000 population, with even higher targets of 60-70% reductions in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Emphasis is placed on addressing serious accidents, urban congestion, environmental impacts through "Green Transport," and better law enforcement using technology such as cameras and vehicle tracking. The Ministry of Public Security will focus on reforming driver’s license testing to ensure legal knowledge and practical driving skills, strict enforcement of blood alcohol limits, and expansion of traffic safety education, especially for students. Ministries and local authorities are to integrate traffic safety into planning and development, complete legal frameworks, and improve data-sharing systems for enforcement.

The Ministry of Construction is tasked with removing illegal crossings, managing railway safety corridors, coordinating funding for infrastructure, and promoting lane separation between cars and motorcycles. It will also accelerate development of rail, waterway, and aviation transport to ease road traffic, while improving standards for passenger vessels and rest stops, and expanding parking infrastructure in major cities. The Ministry of Health will strengthen first-aid capacities at grassroots levels and develop digital tools for accident reporting. Education authorities will incorporate traffic law education into curricula, certify electric vehicle operation skills for students, and clarify responsibilities for school and family oversight of student drivers.

Local governments, especially in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, must treat traffic safety as a continuous political priority, completing removal of high-risk spots and unauthorized railway crossings by the end of 2026. Both cities will finalize Safe City Schemes targeting green, modern, clean, and safe urban environments, focusing on infrastructure issues and environmental pollution control from vehicles and construction waste transport. Performance in traffic safety will be a key metric in evaluating local leadership, and strict measures will be taken against officials if conditions worsen in their areas of responsibility.

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