Vietnam

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Record Bitcoin Price Declines and Market Liquidations Amid Shifting Investor Sentiment and Policy Signals
Nov. 25, 2025 | Financial System

Recent shifts in investor sentiment and policy signals have driven volatility across cryptocurrency markets.

**The Fear & Greed Index has fallen below 5 points—the lowest level on record—and its 21-day moving average slipped to 10.**
This gauge ranges from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed) and historically has preceded strong rallies after extreme fear phases, though previous troughs did not immediately reverse downward price trends.

**Bitcoin’s price has reflected this sentiment shift, sliding nearly 40% from an early October peak of roughly $126,000 to about $86,500.**
A weekend sell-off briefly pushed the price toward $80,000 before a mild recovery to around $88,000, where it has traded sideways. This downturn wiped out trillions in market capitalization and intensified investor anxiety.

**Within 24 hours, margin calls liquidated approximately 117,928 trading accounts, totaling about $206.39 million in forced closures.**
Markets often witness such waves of liquidations at local tops or bottoms, as the rapid unwinding of leveraged positions can amplify price swings.

**Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also experienced significant outflows, with roughly $3.55 billion exiting since early November—nearly matching February’s record $3.56 billion outflow.**
That February exodus coincided with a drop from above $100,000 to the $90,000 range, followed by a further crash to about $75,000 in March and April.

**Major holders bore the brunt of this correction.**
The 1.1 million BTC attributed to Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, fell in value from $139 billion to $96 billion, sliding Nakamoto from 11th to 20th place on the world’s richest list.

**Analysts emphasize critical technical thresholds.**
Bitcoin must break and hold above $87,000 to avoid prolonged stagnation or a potential “crypto winter,” while demand around $80,600 remains tentative. A rebound toward approximately $93,000 appears necessary to restore confidence, though no clear trend reversal has emerged.

**Unexpected dovish signals from the US Federal Reserve have shifted market expectations, pushing the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December from 39% to 70%.**
Fed officials’ focus on balancing inflation and employment metrics could reduce selling pressure and underpin a year-end recovery in Bitcoin.

**Industry commentary frames the recent downturn as a necessary deleveraging process, suggesting Bitcoin could stabilize between $95,000 and $110,000 before a significant breakout.**
Institutions like JPMorgan continue to view Bitcoin as competitive with gold over the long term, and the end of the Fed’s quantitative tightening in December may catalyze a new growth cycle, potentially ushering in a bull run in the first quarter of 2026.
Historic Flooding and Recovery Initiatives in Vietnam’s South Central and Central Highlands
Nov. 25, 2025 | Environment

Vietnam’s South Central Coast and Central Highlands regions have endured historic flooding and landslides since mid-November, driven by prolonged heavy rains and high tides.

**Provinces including Đắk Lắk, Khánh Hòa, Gia Lai, Lâm Đồng, Phú Yên, Bình Định, Đà Nẵng, Huế, Quảng Trị and Ninh Hòa experienced widespread devastation.**
By late November, authorities reported 91 to 102 people dead or missing, more than 1,000 homes damaged or destroyed, and over 80,000 hectares of crops inundated or lost. Economic damages reached VND 9,035–13,078 billion, with Đắk Lắk alone accounting for 63 fatalities and losses exceeding VND 5,300 billion, and Khánh Hòa reporting at least 15 deaths, 20 injuries and roughly VND 5,000 billion in damages.

**In response, communities and civil society organizations have mobilized relief operations nationwide.**
In Hanoi, volunteers at alley 178 Giải Phóng and a warehouse on Lê Trọng Tấn Street pack mosquito nets, blankets, instant noodles, rice, medicines and clothing for shipment to Đồng Xuân and Đông Hòa in Đắk Lắk. Hải Phòng’s Yêu Thương Club assembled 1,500 food and medicine packages bound for Đồng Xuân and Phú Xuân. In Huế City, hundreds of residents and the Zero Đồng Rescue Team loaded over 130 tons of rice, noodles, clothing, cooking oil and cakes for delivery to Phú Yên. Even flood-affected areas such as Kim Trà, Hương Trà and Quảng Điền contributed rice, noodles and cash. In Đồng Nai’s Trảng Dài ward, locals wrapped 6,000 bánh chưng and bánh tét—over 50 tons of food—destined for communes in the Central Coast and Highlands.

**Provincial People’s Committees have announced direct financial support for households.**
Families whose homes collapsed will receive VND 60 million for rebuilding; those with flooded, partially collapsed or heavily damaged houses will receive VND 30 million. Individuals facing livelihood challenges qualify for VND 1 million each, and students from primary level upward receive VND 500,000 for school supplies. Provinces will draw on central and local contingency and disaster-prevention funds. Additionally, Khánh Hòa province distributed 2,000 tons of rice from the national reserve to communities in heavily flooded districts.

**Agribank has allocated VND 11 billion from its Social Welfare Fund to support flood-affected areas in Khánh Hòa, Phú Yên, Bình Định and Lâm Đồng, and it pledged further measures including reduced interest rates, debt restructuring and preferential loans.**
In late November the bank cut existing lending rates by 0.5–2% per year and capped overdue interest at 100% of on-term rates through mid-February 2026. New loans disbursed by December 31, 2025 will carry a 0.5% annual rate reduction for six months. Agribank also committed over VND 80 billion to disaster-recovery funds in 2025, inspected flood-damaged branches and coordinated with local authorities to assess ongoing needs.

**At the national level, the Prime Minister and Party leadership have instructed ministries, local authorities, the military, police and civil organizations to coordinate relief and recovery.**
They have prioritized search and rescue; delivery of food, clean water and essentials to isolated households; clearance and restoration of roads, schools, clinics and services; and temporary accommodation for displaced residents. The Government allocated VND 1,100 billion from the 2025 central budget reserve—VND 500 billion for Đắk Lắk, VND 300 billion for Lâm Đồng, and VND 150 billion each for Khánh Hòa and Gia Lai. Deputy Prime Ministers oversee provincial recovery efforts, targeting housing repairs by November 30, 2025 and resettlement of households with irreparable homes by January 31, 2026.

**Structural and operational shortcomings in flood control across the Ba River basin have exacerbated the disaster.**
Of 28 reservoirs, only five can retain floodwater, together holding about 26% of a potential 2 billion m³ flood volume. When the Sông Ba Hạ hydropower plant released water to protect its dam, downstream communities faced sudden surges. Since most reservoirs were designed for hydropower and irrigation without integrated flood-mitigation tools, operators rely on qualitative judgments rather than data-driven guidance. Experts recommend developing software that integrates meteorological, hydrological and reservoir information; optimizing coordinated operations among reservoirs; enhancing drainage infrastructure; and assigning clear flood-control roles to selected reservoirs to strengthen future flood management.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Nov. 25, 2025


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Vietnamese Goods Exported to the US Set a New Record

VN Express | Local Language | News | Nov. 25, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

In the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam's export turnover to the United States surpassed 126 billion USD, marking a 28% increase from the same period in 2024 and setting a new record. The US remains Vietnam’s largest export market, representing over 30% of total export turnover, driven by growth across multiple sectors. Key contributors include electronics, machinery, and technology, with computers, electronics, and components rising nearly 78% to over 34 billion USD, fueled by demand for AI servers and semiconductor-related products. Machinery and equipment exports grew by 9.2% to 19.6 billion USD, phones and components edged up to 9.02 billion USD, and textiles rebounded by 11.4% to 14.81 billion USD.

The toys and sporting goods sector experienced a dramatic increase of more than 255%, reaching 5.24 billion USD, due largely to American companies shifting orders from China. Other consumer products such as wood and wood products and vehicles and parts also saw increases of 6% and nearly 11%, respectively. Agricultural and aquatic products grew notably, with fruits and vegetables up 58.5%, coffee rising over 60%, rubber products growing 51%, and seafood recovering by 7.5% as US inventories declined and demand for premium products resumed.

Despite new tariffs affecting textiles since September, the sector maintained growth, with companies like Wigroup and Vinatex posting positive results and increased profits by accelerating shipments before tariffs took effect. Firms are enhancing compliance by increasing raw material localization and fully declaring origins to meet US standards. Companies are also pursuing automation, advanced processing, and new market opportunities such as the Halal segment to reduce reliance on the US market.

Experts highlight these trends as part of a global supply chain shift, where cooling US inflation, stable interest rates, and the end of inventory liquidation cycles are prompting renewed American demand. The ongoing move by US companies to reduce dependence on China further benefits Vietnamese exports in electronics, mechanical products, toys, textiles, and light industry. For 2026, prospects remain positive but face challenges from increased US trade defense investigations and stricter environmental and traceability standards. Vietnamese businesses are encouraged to enhance transparency and invest in sustainable production to sustain growth across key sectors.

Kết quả đợt cao điểm truy quét hang ổ lừa đảo tại Myanmar

Results of the intensive crackdown on fraud dens in Myanmar

Bao Dien Tu | Local Language | News | Nov. 25, 2025 | Corporate Corruption or Fraud

Between November 18 and 22, Myanmar authorities conducted a large-scale crackdown on online scam operations at the Shwe Kokko area near the Thai border, detaining 1,590 foreign nationals who had entered illegally. On November 22 alone, 223 individuals, including 100 Chinese citizens, were arrested for involvement in online scams and gambling activities. Authorities seized 2,893 computers, 21,750 mobile phones, 101 Starlink satellite receivers, 21 routers, and various industrial materials used in these illegal activities.

Images released by local media showed the destruction of many seized electronic devices. The use of satellite Internet access devices was notable, with the US-based Starlink service provider disabling over 2,500 devices believed to be used for improper purposes in the area. Online scam networks in Myanmar's border regions have been increasing, often exploiting emotions or soliciting fraudulent investments.

According to a United Nations report, East Asia and Southeast Asia suffered losses totaling approximately 37 billion USD in 2023 due to online scam activities. Regional responses include Vietnam repatriating over 450 citizens from Myanmar, Thailand proposing a six-country task force against online scams, and collaborative actions by countries such as Cambodia and South Korea to combat cross-border scam operations.

Cảnh báo tín đồ thẻ tín dụng: Lãi suất đồng loạt tăng, có nơi tới 40%/năm

Warning to Credit Card Users: Interest Rates Rising Across the Board, Some Up to 40% per Year

Dantri | Local Language | News | Nov. 25, 2025 | UndeterminedInflation

In November 2025, multiple banks simultaneously increased credit card interest rates, with the highest rates reaching approximately 40% per year. For example, BIDV raised its standard card rate from 18% to 22% and its Platinum World card rate from 16.5% to 20%. OCB increased its top interest rate from 33% to 37%, and Techcombank's rates went up to nearly 39% for some cards. State-owned banks like Vietcombank and VietinBank also raised rates, with Vietcombank increasing its standard card rate to 22% and VietinBank raising international card rates to 22%.

The timing of these interest rate hikes coincides with the year-end peak shopping season, including Black Friday, Christmas, and New Year's Day promotions, when card spending typically surges. Analysts attribute the increases not only to seasonal demand but also to banks' efforts to improve net interest margins (NIM), which have declined to their lowest levels since 2018 due to preferential loan packages offered earlier in the year.

Financial experts urge credit card users to exercise financial discipline amid rising rates. They recommend paying full balances on time to avoid high interest charges that can reach 35-40% per year after the interest-free period of 45-55 days, avoiding cash withdrawals on credit cards, and limiting spending to manageable levels to prevent falling into costly debt cycles.

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