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Trump’s Fast-Track Ukraine Peace Plan: Why a Quick Fix May Not Last
19FortyFive | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 15, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump pledged to quickly resolve the Russia-Ukraine war, initially claiming he could achieve this in a day. However, the timeline has since prolonged, with his designated special envoy, Keith Kellogg, suggesting a 100-day target. As the conflict nears its third year, doubts about the effectiveness of Trump's strategy remain, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing Kremlin threats.
A peace agreement under Trump might reduce immediate violence, potentially by using American leverage to pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Moscow. While a ceasefire could stabilize the situation temporarily, it would leave critical issues unresolved, including Ukraine's security guarantees, NATO membership, war reparations, and accountability for war crimes. A superficial peace might offer political advantages for Trump, but it would not guarantee lasting stability for Ukraine.
Historical precedents indicate that ending violent conflicts often leads to new forms of instability. Previous U.S. peace agreements with Iraq and the Taliban failed to establish long-term security. Research shows that conflicts typically transition to lower violence levels rather than conclude definitively, often leading to increased domestic issues such as violence and arms trafficking. Achieving sustainable peace in Ukraine will require more than negotiations; it demands a long-term, collective commitment from allies that transcends any single administration.