Japan

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Tokyo stocks reach historic highs as semiconductor rally drives market surge
Jan. 15, 2026 | Financial System

Tokyo’s stock market reached new record highs, propelled by a rally in semiconductor stocks.

**On January 14, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 opened at 54,050.38 yen—its first entry into the 54,000 range—and climbed 501.22 yen from the previous close.**
For the second day in a row, the index set fresh peaks, closing the morning session at 54,413.92 yen (up 864.76 yen) and reopening in the afternoon at 54,461.07 yen near all-time highs.

**Semiconductor-related shares led the advance, supported by a three-day surge in the US Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.**
Advantest added roughly 330 yen to the Nikkei as the largest single-stock contributor, while Tokyo Electron, FANUC and Yaskawa Electric posted strong gains as investors poured into technology, machinery and precision instruments.

**Investors drew optimism from several supportive factors.**
The yen traded in the low 159-per-dollar range, bolstering exporters’ competitiveness. Geopolitical tensions drove gold above 26,000 yen per gram. Expectations for aggressive fiscal measures under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—and a possible snap lower-house election to solidify her mandate for expanded spending—spurred buying in infrastructure-related sectors.

**Trading volume in Tokyo reached 1.19 billion shares with a total value of 3.4782 trillion yen.**
Market breadth skewed positive, with 175 Nikkei components advancing, 47 declining and three unchanged. Mining, precision instruments, machinery and glass and stone products led sector gains, while information and communications, fisheries/agriculture/forestry and land transportation lagged.

**Other Tokyo benchmarks also rose.**
The TOPIX gained 31.40 points to close at 3,630.29, and the Standard TOP20 extended its rally on heavy volume of 318.87 million shares. In contrast, the Growth 250 and Growth Core indices slipped as investors took profits in smaller-cap and growth-oriented stocks.

**Large-cap performance diverged: Advantest, Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron lifted the market, but a steep drop in SoftBank Group shaved about 158 yen off the Nikkei, and TDK, Daiichi Sankyo and Toyota also retreated.**
This shift reflected sector rotation as investors reallocated toward policy-sensitive and export-benefit plays amid evolving domestic and global economic and political dynamics.
Yen Slides Toward 159 Amid Fiscal Uncertainty and Snap Election Signals
Jan. 15, 2026 | Macroeconomics & Growth

The yen’s fluctuating exchange rate against the dollar reflects growing concerns over Japan’s fiscal policy and market volatility.

**On January 12, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama met US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington to express shared concern over the yen’s recent steep depreciation.**
Katayama stressed Japan’s serious worry as the currency weakened to a one-year low, and Bessent agreed on the need for coordinated foreign-exchange policy and continued dialogue.

**The yen’s decline accelerated after reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would dissolve the House of Representatives and call a snap general election for February 8.**
Traders anticipated her administration would pursue more aggressive expansionary fiscal measures, stoking worries about Japan’s fiscal health and prompting widespread yen selling.

**In New York’s FX market on January 13, the yen traded around ¥158.74–158.84 per dollar before weakening to roughly ¥159.11–159.21 in subsequent sessions.**
The euro hovered near ¥185.2–¥185.3, while the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield briefly climbed to 2.150%, its highest level since February 1999. Japanese equities rallied alongside the falling yen: the Nikkei index surged more than 3% intraday to close at 53,623.09, and the Topix gained 2.44% to finish at 3,599.73.

**Traders briefly bought yen after the US December Consumer Price Index showed a 2.7% year-on-year increase, but dollar strength returned as political and fiscal uncertainty in Japan dominated sentiment.**
The dollar index rose to 99.15, while the euro and pound weakened.

**Market participants warn that any move toward the key ¥160 level could spur Japanese foreign-exchange intervention.**
Steven Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital notes the market skew favors further yen losses, suggesting intervention could trigger a sharp rebound. Kit Jacks of Société Générale views a breach past ¥160 as a short-selling opportunity, pointing out that Japanese authorities focus more on volatility and the pace of moves than on fixed exchange-rate thresholds.

**Analysts expect yen selling to persist alongside anticipated expansionary fiscal policy.**
While cash intervention offers a deterrent, they see limited scope for large-scale operations. Instead, verbal warnings may serve to delay further declines rather than fund major market intervention.

Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 15, 2026


News
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384

Government
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51

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147

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Releases
1
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0
Academic/
Think
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26


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0


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0

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0

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1

Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.

Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.

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22
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4
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9
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17
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4
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1
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3
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「持ち家か、賃貸か」。法的視点から「住まい」を考える(7)~登記することで、第三者に対して「所有権」を主張できる

Owning a Home or Renting: Considering Housing from a Legal Perspective (7) – Asserting Ownership Rights Against Third Parties Through Registration

NLI Research Institute | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 15, 2026 | UndeterminedLegal Exposure

Real estate registration is a crucial legal system that publicly records ownership rights and relevant facts regarding real estate, helping to clarify rights relationships and ensure transaction safety. Registering property is the formal requirement necessary to assert ownership against third parties, especially in cases like double sales, where the first person to complete registration holds legal protection.

The property registry includes the heading section, Section A, and Section B, where anyone can verify ownership and the content of rights. In practical real estate transactions, registration is usually completed promptly at the time of property delivery. Registration for inheritance acquisitions has become mandatory, further increasing the importance of this system.

Understanding and performing real estate registration helps individuals safeguard their ownership rights legally and avoid disputes. Checking the certified copy of the property registry and not neglecting registration procedures are essential steps for asserting ownership and protecting real estate interests.

「九州・沖縄」など6地域で改善~リスク要因を注視も、AI関連・インバウンドに期待

Improvements in Six Regions Including Kyushu and Okinawa—Monitoring Risk Factors While Expecting AI and Inbound Growth

Daiwa Institute of Research | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 15, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

In January 2026, the Daiwa Regional AI Index showed improvement in six Japanese regions, including Kyushu, Okinawa, and Tohoku, while it declined in Kanto-Koshinetsu and Kinki and remained steady in Hokkaido. Household consumption rose in Hokkaido, Kyushu, Okinawa, and Hokuriku, with tourism driving Hokkaido’s improvement despite limited impact from canceled Chinese tourist bookings. Consumer electronics sales increased in Hokuriku due to operating system support ending, and department stores in Kyushu and Okinawa benefited from affluent spending bolstered by rising stock prices. However, nationwide consumer caution due to high prices persisted. Housing investment declined in Hokuriku, affected by Building Standards Act revisions, rising housing prices, and anticipated interest rate hikes. Wage growth continued steadily, though employment and income saw little change.

Corporate sentiment improved in many regions, particularly Tohoku (chemicals and business services), Hokkaido (food products), and Kyushu and Okinawa (steel). Capital investment expanded in Hokuriku with an emphasis on capacity expansion, new business ventures, and labor-saving technologies addressing workforce shortages. Production trends varied: Shikoku’s production improved in machinery sectors tied to transport, pulp and paper, and data centers, while Hokkaido and Kanto-Koshinetsu experienced declines in transport machinery and steel production. Exports were moderately impacted by U.S. trade policy; automobile exports to China and electrical machinery exports in Kyushu and Okinawa rose, but some exports from Kanto-Koshinetsu to China declined.

Overall, Japan’s economy is gradually recovering, supported by strong tourism, food and beverage, and accommodation sectors, as well as growing AI and data center-related demand. Corporate sentiment, production, and capital investment are strengthening amid limited trade policy effects. Risks remain from high prices and potential interest rate increases, which may suppress consumption and housing investment. Future growth is expected to be driven by AI and digital investments, wage increases alongside labor-saving measures, steady affluent consumption fueled by rising stock prices, and continued inbound demand, sustaining regional economic recovery.

Former Navy sailor sentenced to 16 years for selling information about ships to Chinese intelligence

Asahi Shimbun - E | English | News | Jan. 15, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Jinchao Wei, a former U.S. Navy sailor and engineer on the amphibious assault ship USS Essex, was sentenced to 200 months (more than 16 years) in prison for selling technical and operating manuals about Navy ships and systems to a Chinese intelligence officer. Wei was convicted in August 2025 of six crimes, including espionage, after accepting over $12,000 for the classified information he provided over an 18-month period.

Wei was recruited in 2022 via social media by an individual posing as a naval enthusiast working for China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation. Despite recognizing the suspicious nature of the contact and being advised to sever ties, Wei continued communication through encrypted messaging apps. He supplied photos, videos, ship locations, defensive weapons details, and 60 manuals related to weapons control, aircraft, and ship operations, all containing export control warnings.

Wei was one of two California-based sailors charged in 2023 for providing sensitive military information to China. The other sailor, Wenheng Zhao, received a sentence of over two years after pleading guilty to conspiracy and bribery charges in 2024. Wei, who held the rank of petty officer second class, apologized in a sentencing letter, attributing his actions to "introversion and loneliness" that clouded his judgment.

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