Japan

過熱する貿易戦争（1）【中国問題グローバル研究所】

Yahoo Finance | Local Language | News | May 2, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

President Trump's advocacy for tariffs, a strategy he has supported since the 1980s, has intensified during his second term as he targets what he perceives as unfair trade practices from several nations, with a focus on China. He introduced "reciprocal tariffs," intending to match tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. goods, although the specifics of their calculation remained unclear. His announcement of broad tariffs far exceeded market expectations, disrupting global trade dynamics and causing profound impacts on financial markets and production models worldwide.

The repercussions of these tariffs have been especially severe for Asian countries, with Cambodia, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka facing tariffs exceeding 40%. U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea are also impacted with mid-20% tariffs. In response, China faced an escalating tariff situation, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reaching 145% while China retaliated with a 125% tariff on U.S. products. The trade war has disrupted previously established trade relationships and significantly affected international supply chains.

Additionally, the U.S. decision to end the de minimis rule, which exempted certain small shipments from tariffs, has also strained the business models of companies profiting from this rule. Amidst growing market instability and rising interest rates, Trump briefly suspended the reciprocal tariffs to facilitate negotiations, but concerns remain that the higher prices resulting from tariffs will seriously impact American consumers. This trade war signifies a deepening economic rift between the U.S. and China, raising questions about Trump's long-term strategy and tangible goals beyond the rhetoric of nationalism and job creation.

Moreover, Trump's efforts to bolster U.S. manufacturing, particularly in shipbuilding, lack a coherent industrial policy to support these industries. He has not articulated plans to revitalize the necessary infrastructure or workforce to compete effectively against established systems in countries like China, which benefit from a well-developed supply chain ecosystem. As this trade conflict evolves, the potential for long-lasting shifts in global trade practices looms large, affecting both American economic stability and international relations.

米国個人年金販売額は2024年も過去最高を更新－トランプ関税政策で今後の動向は不透明に－

NLI Research Institute | Local Language | AcademicThink | May 2, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

Sales of individual annuities in the United States are projected to reach a record high in 2024, marking a significant growth trend that has continued from 2021 to 2023. Despite expectations of falling interest rates and a decrease in sales of fixed annuities, overall sales exceeded $100 billion in every quarter, culminating in a total of $434.1 billion for the year—a 13% year-on-year increase. This growth has been buoyed by the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to lower interest rates in mid-September 2024, which limited potential setbacks, as well as the performance of fixed index-linked and variable annuities driven by a robust stock market.

Looking ahead to the medium-term through 2027, the stock market is anticipated to remain stable; however, the sharp decline in interest rates poses challenges. Despite an expected year-on-year decline in the market size beginning in 2025, factors such as an increasing population aged 65 and over are likely to sustain growth in individual annuities. However, uncertainties loom due to the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies, which could lead to an unstable market environment characterized by volatile stock performance and elevated interest rates. Given these complexities, vigilance regarding future market trends is necessary.

戦闘機開発、インドに参画を打診 政府、巨額費用の負担軽減期待

Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | May 2, 2025 | UndeterminedBizdev-Partnering

The Japanese government has approached India to invite its participation in the joint development of a next-generation fighter jet, a project led by the UK and Italy. By including India in this initiative, Japan aims to alleviate the substantial costs associated with the development and enhance security cooperation with India, which is a key player in South Asia.

Despite showing interest in the proposal, India has concerns about potential military conflicts with Pakistan and maintains a historically friendly relationship with Russia. A recent visit by a Japanese official to India included discussions about the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) and sought Indian involvement. India's "Make in India" initiative, aimed at boosting domestic weapon production, aligns with this interest in Japan's plans.

Japan is prioritizing security collaboration with India to bolster stability in the Indo-Pacific region, as evidenced by joint military training exercises and high-level defense ministerial meetings. Additionally, Saudi Arabia is exploring its own participation in the GCAP, indicating broader international interest in the fighter jet project.