Japan

Asahi Shimbun - E | English | News | Jan. 15, 2025 | North Korea

North Korea test-fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles into its eastern waters, marking its second launch of the year. The missiles flew approximately 250 kilometers before landing between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. South Korea's military condemned the test as a serious provocation that threatens regional peace, ramping up surveillance and sharing launch details with U.S. and Japanese forces.

This missile launch follows an earlier test on January 6, involving a hypersonic intermediate-range missile aimed at distant Pacific targets. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is focused on expanding the nuclear-capable arsenal to counter perceived threats from rivals. In 2024, North Korea has intensified weapons testing, showcasing advanced systems including solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles and short-range missiles designed to evade missile defense.

Concerns over North Korea's military advancements have heightened, particularly regarding potential technology transfers from Russia amid their alignment on the Ukraine conflict. During a year-end conference, Kim criticized U.S. efforts to strengthen security ties with South Korea and Japan, portraying them as a nuclear military bloc. While North Korean state media did not elaborate on Kim's strategies or mention Donald Trump specifically, any prospects for diplomatic engagement appear unlikely due to Kim's strengthened military posture and the complex geopolitical landscape.

Japan Institute for National Fundamentals | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 15, 2025 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

The government of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is adopting a pro-China stance by planning to invite Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Japan in February for a trilateral meeting with South Korea. Significant discussions regarding a Japan-China-South Korea free trade agreement (FTA) are underway as China seeks to restart negotiations that stalled in 2019. The leaders of the three nations previously committed to accelerating FTA discussions, aiming to create a comprehensive agreement that exceeds the standards of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

China is urging Japan to engage in negotiations on the proposed FTA. However, Japan is wary of China's industrial subsidies and preferential treatment for state-owned enterprises. Progress will depend on China addressing these structural issues, which have led to global market distortions through overproduction and dumping of exports, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels. Japan, along with the U.S. and Europe, stresses the need for fairness from China amid ongoing economic tensions, such as bans on Japanese fishery products and restrictions on critical minerals.

As Japan enters FTA talks, it risks backlash from the incoming Trump administration, which may perceive Japan's actions as being too favorable to China. Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya’s recent diplomatic engagements with China have raised concerns domestically about U.S. perceptions regarding Japan’s market integration with China. To alleviate these tensions, Japan must ensure that its FTA negotiations focus on addressing China's structural issues.

Additionally, China aims to strengthen its position for potential engagement with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) through a successful trilateral FTA, which could limit U.S. influence in the region. Should Japan pursue FTA discussions without discretion, it risks falling into China's strategic trap, potentially jeopardizing its trade and foreign policy in the long term.

「本当に安全か」オスプレイ、半年後に佐賀移駐 事故連発に増す懸念

Mainichi Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 15, 2025 | Accidents

Accidents and safety concerns surrounding the Osprey transport aircraft are drawing scrutiny as the Ministry of Defense plans to deploy them at Saga Airport by early July. Various incidents have raised alarms, including a JGSDF accident in Okinawa and the cancelation of demonstration flights due to safety issues. Saga Prefecture Governor Yamaguchi Yoshiyoshi has expressed concerns about precautionary landings and the differing safety responses between Japan and the United States.

The US military recently suspended Osprey operations following a gearbox malfunction linked to a crash in New Mexico, amplifying worries in Japan. Governor Yamaguchi criticized the GSDF for its slow response in halting flights and stressed the need for better communication between the two countries. As 17 V22 Ospreys are set to be transferred from Kisarazu Garrison and construction of the Saga Garrison progresses, safety remains a critical issue.

Ospreys have a history of significant accidents, leading to suspensions of operations in both countries. Local fishermen and residents are increasingly questioning the safety of their deployment due to a series of emergency landings, which the Ministry has characterized as precautionary. Despite the Ministry's assurance of the Osprey's safety, ongoing incidents are eroding public confidence.

To address these issues, the Ministry of Defense will establish a liaison office in Saga Prefecture to improve communication ahead of the deployment. Governor Yamaguchi has called for transparency regarding safety concerns, advocating for clear explanations and measures to build community trust as the deployment date approaches.