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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics & Defense | (Great-power rivalry intensity ↑ → Military expenditure spike (% GDP) ↑ → Defense-spending burden on fiscal balance ↑ → Arms-race expenditure gap ↑) | The ensuing arms race will worsen fiscal pressures and further intensify great-power rivalry. |
| Geopolitics & Defense | (Alliance interoperability score ↓ → Forward-deployed troop surge ↑ → Escalation probability estimate ↑) | A surge in forward-deployed troops increases contact points, elevating the risk of unintended military escalation. |
| Geopolitics & Defense | (Sanctions & export-control aggressiveness ↑ → Sanctions breadth index ↑ → Supply-chain relocation cost (% GDP) ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↓) | Broader sanctions and higher relocation costs will depress business fixed-investment growth. |
| Geopolitics & Defense | (Maritime-claim assertiveness ↑ → Freedom-of-navigation incident count ↑ → Global shipping war-risk premium ↑ → Shipping-insurance cost share of trade value ↑) | Elevated shipping war-risk premiums will increase insurance costs, raising overall trade logistics expenses. |
| Transportation & Logistics | (Aviation bilateral & multilateral ASA openness ↓ → Air-cargo capacity utilisation ↓ → Freight-rate volatility index ↑ → Logistics cost-to-sales ratio ↑) | Reduced air-cargo capacity and volatile freight rates will drive up logistics cost-to-sales ratios for shippers. |
| Transportation & Logistics | (Aviation ASA openness ↓ → Door-to-door export lead time ↑ → Real export-market share change ↓ → Global export-market share shift ↓) | Longer door-to-door lead times will erode Japan’s export competitiveness and shrink its global market share. |
| Energy & Natural Resources | (Critical-mineral import concentration index ↑ → Resource-control share (rare earths) ↑ → Strategic-commodity price volatility ↑ → Battery cost ↑) | Higher strategic-commodity volatility will translate into increased battery costs for Japanese manufacturers. |
| Non-Interstate Conflict & Security | (Cross-border sanctuary ease score ↓ → Conflict-induced displacement flow ↑ → Civilian-conflict fatality toll ↑ → Humanitarian-aid dependency ratio ↑) | Restricted refuge access could amplify displacement and casualties, boosting humanitarian aid dependency. |
| Social Cohesion | (Anti-discrimination enforcement strength ↓ → Online hateful-content visibility share ↑ → Intergroup violence incident frequency ↑ → Social-trust composite swing ↓) | Rising online hate content and intergroup violence will undermine social trust between communities. |
| Politics | (Great-power rivalry intensity ↑ → Political-risk sovereign spread ↑ → Investor political-risk premium ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↓) | Increased political-risk premiums will deter foreign investment, reducing FDI inflows as a share of GDP. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
千葉県環境研究センター公開講座「令和7年の最新情報!千葉県の気候変動影響と熱中症対策」
Chiba Prefectural Environmental Research Center Public Lecture: Latest Information for 2025! Climate Change Impacts and Heatstroke Prevention in Chiba Prefecture
Chiba Prefecture | Local Language | CityState | Nov. 21, 2025 | Climate Change
The Chiba Prefectural Environmental Research Center will hold a public lecture titled "Latest Information for Reiwa 7! Climate Change Impacts and Heatstroke Countermeasures in Chiba Prefecture" on December 19, 2025. The event is scheduled from 1:30 p.m. to 4:30 p.m., with doors opening at 12:30 p.m. The lecture aims to provide updated information on climate change effects and heatstroke prevention measures pertinent to Chiba Prefecture, coinciding with the implementation of revised Industrial Safety and Health Regulations that mandate heatstroke countermeasures as a legal responsibility for employers.
The lecture will focus on Chiba Prefecture’s meteorological conditions and heatstroke trends during the summer of 2025, alongside practical heatstroke countermeasures for workplaces and facilities in line with the new regulations. Targeted primarily at corporate and government personnel responsible for safety and facility management, the event is also open to anyone interested in environmental issues. Attendees will learn what preparations are necessary by the summer of fiscal year Reiwa 8 (2026).
The event will be held at Hotel Plaza Nanohana, located in Chuo-ku, Chiba City, with an on-site capacity of 50 attendees available on a first-come, first-served basis, and an online capacity of 500 participants via Zoom Webinar. Applications opened on November 19, 2025, and will close on December 12, 2025. Interested participants must register in advance, either through the Chiba Electronic Application Service for on-site attendance or via Zoom Webinar for the online format. Special accommodations, such as sign language interpretation for the on-site event, need to be requested by December 5, 2025.
The lecture program includes presentations on the long-term climate trends and future projections in Chiba Prefecture by a meteorological expert, heatstroke occurrence data and ongoing initiatives by the Environmental Research Center, workplace heatstroke countermeasures by a pharmaceutical company representative, and a detailed review of the revised Industrial Safety and Health Regulations by a certified social insurance and labor consultant. Additionally, there will be an introduction to a business decarbonization promotion program led by representatives from the Global Warming Countermeasures Promotion Division.
Participation in the lecture is free, though attendees are responsible for their own transportation and communication expenses. Further information and a recruitment flyer are available through related links provided by the Environmental Research Center. Inquiries can be directed to the Environmental Life Department at the Center via phone or fax.
China tour groups start canceling Japan trips amid spat
Japan Times | English | News | Nov. 21, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
China’s travel advisory against visiting Japan has led tour operators to cancel prebooked flights and hotels for group travelers planned for December. As a result, marketing trips to Japan has also been suspended for local customers amid ongoing diplomatic tensions.
At least two state-owned Chinese travel agencies have canceled group bookings made months in advance following the advisory, which was issued in response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan. These cancellations are intended to shield the agencies from potential financial losses caused by policy uncertainty and changing public sentiment.
The process has been facilitated by Chinese airlines offering to waive cancellation fees and provide flexible rebooking options, easing the burden on both travelers and travel operators.
中ロ朝の結束は「不均衡」 防衛研究所が分析、外交手法にズレ
The unity of China, Russia, and North Korea is unbalanced Defense Research Institute analyzes differences in diplomatic approaches
Nikkei | Local Language | News | Nov. 21, 2025 | North Korea
The Defense Research Institute's "China Security Report 2026," released on November 20, analyzes the evolving relationships among China, Russia, and North Korea, highlighting imbalances in their partnerships despite deepening coordination. The report finds that China-Russia cooperation primarily strengthens China's military power, while Russia-North Korea links bolster North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities. However, a fully strategic trilateral alliance has not materialized.
The report notes key differences in China-Russia relations, with Russia engaging in military cooperation and joint exercises, whereas China's support focuses more on economic assistance. Diplomatically, China employs diverse strategies, including support to developing countries, while Russia often relies on intimidation tactics, such as nuclear threats.
Regarding the Korean Peninsula, Russia has moved closer to North Korea, largely influenced by its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, while China maintains a more cautious distance from Russia-North Korea coordination. North Korea's military reliance on China has decreased, and uncertainty remains about its expectations from China. North Korea has supported Russia since the beginning of the Ukraine invasion and may be receiving technological aid like drones, potentially in exchange for personnel and weapons support.
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