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Japan
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Japan Poised for Early Election as Takaichi Weighs House Dissolution
Jan. 13, 2026 | PoliticsJapan’s political leadership faces a pivotal decision as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi considers dissolving the House of Representatives to coincide with the opening of the Diet session on January 23, 2026.
**Takaichi’s advisers, citing domestic and international uncertainties, have urged her to call a snap election to secure an outright LDP majority.**
She spent several days in seclusion at the official residence before embarking on high-profile diplomatic visits—meeting South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on January 13 and hosting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from January 15 to 17. Officials expect her formal announcement after the three-day Coming of Age Day holiday, with two possible schedules under discussion: issuing a public notice on January 27 for a February 8 vote, or on February 3 for a February 15 vote.
**Proceeding with dissolution before budget deliberations will delay passage of the initial fiscal 2026 budget bill, a measure critical for curbing high inflation and safeguarding people’s livelihoods.**
Opposition leaders warn that missing the fiscal-year deadline could push anti-inflation measures and social welfare programs into limbo. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saitō argues that dissolving parliament now would create a political vacuum during a key economic period, and Constitutional Democratic Party figure Yoshihiko Noda suggests the timing reflects deeper governance challenges in the administration.
**Within the ruling coalition, the election plan has generated surprise and tension.**
Many LDP members assumed dissolution would follow the April budget passage—particularly after the Democratic Party for the People signaled its willingness to cooperate—and were unsettled by the shift in Takaichi’s schedule. The Japan Innovation Party, under Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, reports insufficient public trust in the coalition and plans to oppose the move outright. LDP Policy Affairs Committee Chairman Keiji Furuya says the party is preparing for all scenarios, though roughly 30 of 289 single-member districts still lack LDP candidates and cooperation with the Innovation Party remains unsettled in about 60 districts.
**Opposition parties are mobilizing for the potential early election.**
The Constitutional Democratic Party has declared itself combat-ready for a February vote, aiming to become the largest force in the lower house and seeking collaboration with Komeito. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party for the People—having reached a December agreement with the LDP on raising the annual income ceiling and passing the fiscal 2025 budget—now indicates it cannot guarantee support if the dissolution breaches that commitment. The stage appears set for a snap general election, pending the prime minister’s forthcoming formal decision.
Protests Intensify in Iran Amid Economic Crisis and Escalating Government Crackdown
Jan. 13, 2026 | PoliticsWidespread protests in Iran have erupted in response to economic hardship and mounting political tensions.
**Anti-government demonstrations began on December 28 as a severe currency crisis and surging inflation, driven largely by European and US sanctions, intensified public frustration.**
While protesters first took to the streets over rising prices and dwindling living standards, their demands have expanded to call for broader political reforms. Now in their third week, large-scale rallies continue across major cities, including Tehran.
**To suppress the protests, security forces have detained 2,638 people, among them medical personnel and seven minors.**
Human rights observers report heavy casualties: a US-based group records 116 fatalities—many victims of live ammunition or pellet guns—while Reuters tallies 490 protesters and 48 security personnel killed since the unrest began. According to medical workers in Tehran, a significant share of these deaths occurred in the capital.
**Amid the government’s crackdown, exiled former crown prince Reza Pahlavi has urged protesters to occupy city centers and launch strikes in vital sectors such as transportation and industry.**
His calls have coincided with intensifying demonstrations and growing public support for coordinated action against the government’s economic and political policies.
**On the international stage, President Donald Trump has condemned Iran’s use of force against demonstrators and affirmed his administration’s willingness to support them.**
The New York Times reports he has been briefed on potential military options against Iran, though he has not authorized any strikes. Through social media, he has reiterated his backing for the protesters and warned of possible military repercussions if Tehran escalates its crackdown.
**Responding to US statements, Iranian officials have threatened the United States and Israel against any intervention.**
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that US military and maritime facilities would become legitimate targets if attacked, stressing Iran’s right to preemptive self-defense. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the US and Israel of fomenting unrest and cautioned that any hostile action against Iran would bring negative repercussions for those countries.
**Within Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has described preserving internal order as a non-negotiable red line, indicating its readiness to use force if necessary.**
President Masoud Pezeshkian denounced US and Israeli involvement, accusing them of orchestrating chaos and even mosque attacks while affirming citizens’ right to protest. Meanwhile, Qalibaf reiterated that any US assault would prompt retaliatory strikes on American bases in Israel and across the region.
**With tensions escalating on both fronts, Trump plans to meet senior officials to consider potential responses, including military options.**
The international community remains deeply concerned about the unfolding crisis, where domestic unrest and geopolitical stakes continue to rise in tandem.
Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 13, 2026
News
Media
214
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City/State
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6
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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
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6
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2
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7
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1
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4
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3
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2
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6
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1
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1
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1
「離島防衛の要」陸自空挺団、広がる同志国協力 14カ国と共同訓練
Key to Remote Island Defense: JGSDF Airborne Brigade Expands Cooperation with Allied Nations, Joint Training with 14 Countries
Nikkei | Local Language | News | Jan. 13, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
On January 11, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi inspected a joint island defense exercise conducted by the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) and militaries from 14 countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia, at the Narashino Training Ground in Chiba Prefecture. The exercise aimed to demonstrate strengthened cooperation and coordination with allied and like-minded nations.
The JGSDF's 1st Airborne Brigade, specializing in parachute assaults to retake enemy-occupied remote islands, participated by conducting ground combat training due to weather restrictions. Thailand, Turkey, and Belgium joined the exercise for the first time, highlighting the broadening network of cooperation beyond traditional partners.
The Airborne Brigade, alongside the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade, is a key component of Japan’s island defense strategy. Koizumi emphasized the brigade's critical role and rigorous training regimen in preparing for frontline situations, personally experiencing training exercises himself.
From January 13 to 20, the JGSDF will continue practical joint training with U.S. and British forces, including parachute jumps and ground combat drills. The brigade also engaged in overseas exercises in November 2025 in Italy with U.S., British, and Italian forces to further deepen international cooperation.
マンション管理組合「決議ルールが変わる」法改正の狙い
Condominium Management Associations The Aim of the Legal Revision Changing Resolution Rules
Mainichi Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 13, 2026 | UndeterminedLegal Exposure
As of April 2026, significant legal revisions will be implemented in Japan regarding condominium management associations, focusing on changing resolution rules to better address current challenges. Approximately one in ten Japanese citizens, around 16 million people, live in condominiums, which are crucial urban housing infrastructure. However, managing these properties has become increasingly difficult due to the dual issues of aging buildings and aging residents.
The first issue is the aging of condominium buildings. By the end of 2024, about 1.48 million condominiums were over 40 years old, a figure expected to more than double in 10 years and triple in 20 years. Major repair works, necessary every few decades to extend building life, suffer from frequent funding shortfalls. Only 40% of condominiums report having sufficient reserve funds for such repairs, while rising construction and labor costs add to budgetary challenges.
The second issue relates to the aging of residents. More than a quarter (26%) of household heads in condominiums are 70 years or older, accounting for 56% in older buildings. Originally purchased mostly by families in their 30s and 40s, many condominiums now house predominantly elderly residents decades later, complicating self-governance and decision-making processes.
The legal revision aims to simplify day-to-day operations and facilitate better consensus-building among residents. It also seeks to advance condominium end-of-life planning, reflecting the realities of these demographic and structural shifts in condominium communities.
小泉防衛相、島しょ防衛を重視 安保３文書改定巡り
Defense Minister Koizumi Emphasizes Island Defense Amid Revisions to the Three Security Documents
Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 13, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi inspected training conducted by the Ground Self-Defense Force's 1st Airborne Brigade at the JGSDF Narashino Training Area in Chiba Prefecture on January 11, 2026. The training focused on island defense, reflecting renewed emphasis on strengthening Japan’s defense posture in the southwest region. Koizumi stressed the importance of this focus as revisions to Japan's three key security documents are planned within the year.
The training included participation from militaries of a record 14 countries, including the United States, Australia, and Turkey, highlighting strong cooperation between Japan and allied nations. Although a parachute drop was scheduled, it was canceled due to strong winds. Prior to the training, Koizumi himself practiced basic parachute descent by jumping from an 11-meter tower at the nearby JGSDF Narashino Garrison.
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