Japan

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Japan Poised for Early Election as Takaichi Weighs House Dissolution
Jan. 13, 2026 | Politics

Japan’s political leadership faces a pivotal decision as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi considers dissolving the House of Representatives to coincide with the opening of the Diet session on January 23, 2026.

**Takaichi’s advisers, citing domestic and international uncertainties, have urged her to call a snap election to secure an outright LDP majority.**
She spent several days in seclusion at the official residence before embarking on high-profile diplomatic visits—meeting South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on January 13 and hosting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from January 15 to 17. Officials expect her formal announcement after the three-day Coming of Age Day holiday, with two possible schedules under discussion: issuing a public notice on January 27 for a February 8 vote, or on February 3 for a February 15 vote.

**Proceeding with dissolution before budget deliberations will delay passage of the initial fiscal 2026 budget bill, a measure critical for curbing high inflation and safeguarding people’s livelihoods.**
Opposition leaders warn that missing the fiscal-year deadline could push anti-inflation measures and social welfare programs into limbo. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saitō argues that dissolving parliament now would create a political vacuum during a key economic period, and Constitutional Democratic Party figure Yoshihiko Noda suggests the timing reflects deeper governance challenges in the administration.

**Within the ruling coalition, the election plan has generated surprise and tension.**
Many LDP members assumed dissolution would follow the April budget passage—particularly after the Democratic Party for the People signaled its willingness to cooperate—and were unsettled by the shift in Takaichi’s schedule. The Japan Innovation Party, under Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, reports insufficient public trust in the coalition and plans to oppose the move outright. LDP Policy Affairs Committee Chairman Keiji Furuya says the party is preparing for all scenarios, though roughly 30 of 289 single-member districts still lack LDP candidates and cooperation with the Innovation Party remains unsettled in about 60 districts.

**Opposition parties are mobilizing for the potential early election.**
The Constitutional Democratic Party has declared itself combat-ready for a February vote, aiming to become the largest force in the lower house and seeking collaboration with Komeito. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party for the People—having reached a December agreement with the LDP on raising the annual income ceiling and passing the fiscal 2025 budget—now indicates it cannot guarantee support if the dissolution breaches that commitment. The stage appears set for a snap general election, pending the prime minister’s forthcoming formal decision.
Protests Intensify in Iran Amid Economic Crisis and Escalating Government Crackdown
Jan. 13, 2026 | Politics

Widespread protests in Iran have erupted in response to economic hardship and mounting political tensions.

**Anti-government demonstrations began on December 28 as a severe currency crisis and surging inflation, driven largely by European and US sanctions, intensified public frustration.**
While protesters first took to the streets over rising prices and dwindling living standards, their demands have expanded to call for broader political reforms. Now in their third week, large-scale rallies continue across major cities, including Tehran.

**To suppress the protests, security forces have detained 2,638 people, among them medical personnel and seven minors.**
Human rights observers report heavy casualties: a US-based group records 116 fatalities—many victims of live ammunition or pellet guns—while Reuters tallies 490 protesters and 48 security personnel killed since the unrest began. According to medical workers in Tehran, a significant share of these deaths occurred in the capital.

**Amid the government’s crackdown, exiled former crown prince Reza Pahlavi has urged protesters to occupy city centers and launch strikes in vital sectors such as transportation and industry.**
His calls have coincided with intensifying demonstrations and growing public support for coordinated action against the government’s economic and political policies.

**On the international stage, President Donald Trump has condemned Iran’s use of force against demonstrators and affirmed his administration’s willingness to support them.**
The New York Times reports he has been briefed on potential military options against Iran, though he has not authorized any strikes. Through social media, he has reiterated his backing for the protesters and warned of possible military repercussions if Tehran escalates its crackdown.

**Responding to US statements, Iranian officials have threatened the United States and Israel against any intervention.**
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that US military and maritime facilities would become legitimate targets if attacked, stressing Iran’s right to preemptive self-defense. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the US and Israel of fomenting unrest and cautioned that any hostile action against Iran would bring negative repercussions for those countries.

**Within Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has described preserving internal order as a non-negotiable red line, indicating its readiness to use force if necessary.**
President Masoud Pezeshkian denounced US and Israeli involvement, accusing them of orchestrating chaos and even mosque attacks while affirming citizens’ right to protest. Meanwhile, Qalibaf reiterated that any US assault would prompt retaliatory strikes on American bases in Israel and across the region.

**With tensions escalating on both fronts, Trump plans to meet senior officials to consider potential responses, including military options.**
The international community remains deeply concerned about the unfolding crisis, where domestic unrest and geopolitical stakes continue to rise in tandem.

Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 14, 2026


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「個人情報保護法 いわゆる3年ごと見直しの制度改正方針」(令和8年1月9日)の解説

Explanation of the Personal Information Protection Law's Policy for Systematic Revisions Every Three Years (January 9, 2026)

TMI Associates | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 14, 2026 | Privacy

The Personal Information Protection Commission has published a policy outlining systematic amendments to the Personal Information Protection Law, as part of a mandated review every three years. This policy, issued on January 9, 2026, follows extensive discussions and public consultation and aims for the early submission of an amendment bill to the 2026 ordinary Diet session scheduled from January 23 to June 21.

The policy defines four key pillars for the amendment: promoting appropriate data utilization, implementing rules to address risks, preventing improper use, and ensuring effective compliance. It specifies amendment approaches for 12 key areas including exemptions from consent for statistical data use, relaxation of consent acquisition requirements, tightening regulations for children’s personal information, and establishing specific rules for facial-feature and biometric data.

Among the substantial changes are provisions to exempt consent for third-party provision of data used solely for statistical purposes, including AI development, and to relax the conditions under which consent is required, such as when data handling is not against an individual's intent or where consent is difficult to obtain for health and safety-related uses. The policy also codifies stricter protections for personal information of children under 16 by mandating consent from statutory agents and prioritizing the best interests of minors.

The policy introduces new, specific regulations for biometric data like facial-feature data, including notice requirements and restrictions on third-party provision. It proposes strengthening obligations on contracted service providers handling personal data, including limiting their use of data beyond contracted tasks and enhancing safety management requirements. Notification obligations to data subjects in the event of data leaks may be relaxed when risks are minimal.

The policy seeks to extend prohibitions on improper use and illicit acquisition to personal-related information enabling targeted approaches to individuals, such as telephone numbers and email addresses. It plans to mandate verification of recipient identities and usage purposes when providing data under opt-out arrangements to combat illicit "dark lists."

To increase regulatory effectiveness, the policy aims to grant more flexibility in issuing urgent orders and recommendations, expand statutory measures to involve third parties who facilitate violations, and enhance criminal penalties to include acts done with intent to harm and unauthorized acquisition of data. Finally, a new surcharge system is proposed to impose monetary penalties equivalent to profits gained from serious violations involving large-scale personal data misuse, subject to specific application conditions such as scale and degree of harm.

These amendments reflect a comprehensive update intended to adapt Japan’s Personal Information Protection Law to advancements in technology, data utilization needs, and evolving privacy risks, with an expected enactment within 2026.

首相、就任後初の地元・奈良入り 安倍氏慰霊「重責担い決意新た」

Prime Minister Visits Hometown Nara for the First Time Since Taking Office, Renewing Resolve While Paying Tribute to Abe

Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 14, 2026 | UndeterminedPolitics and Elections

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visited her hometown of Nara on January 12, marking her first visit since taking office. During her visit, she paid tribute to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe by offering flowers at the "Ryūkonhi" memorial monument where Abe was assassinated. She honored Abe's dedication to Japan's honor and economic strength and expressed renewed determination to lead the country responsibly.

On January 13, Prime Minister Takaichi planned to hold a summit meeting with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in Nara City. She emphasized the significance of Japan-Korea cultural exchanges and expressed hope that their leadership meetings, described as "shuttle diplomacy," would advance a forward-looking bilateral relationship.

Amid speculation about dissolving the House of Representatives at the start of the ordinary Diet session on January 23, Takaichi refrained from answering press questions regarding dissolution during this three-day period. During her Nara visit, she also paid respects at her parents' graves, stopped by her home, and was greeted by a crowd at the cemetery entrance.

Additional political context includes the recent re-election of Maebashi Mayor Akira Ogawa amid controversy, upcoming Japan-US defense minister talks focused on China and Asia, and disclosures concerning public secretaries holding concurrent jobs with lawmakers. Meanwhile, ruling and opposition parties are accelerating preparations ahead of the February House of Representatives election, with Prime Minister Takaichi instructing candidate selection operations.

米住宅着工・許可件数(25年10月)-着工件数(前月比)は124.6万件と市場予想の133.0万件を下回り、20年5月以来の水準

US Housing Starts and Building Permits (October 2025) – Housing Starts (MoM) at 1.246 Million, Below Market Expectation of 1.330 Million, Lowest Since May 2020

NLI Research Institute | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 14, 2026 | UndeterminedReal Estate

In October 2025, U.S. housing starts (seasonally adjusted annual rate) declined to 1.246 million, falling short of the market expectation of 1.330 million. This figure represents the lowest level of housing starts since May 2020, highlighting ongoing weakness in new construction activity. The previous month's housing starts were 1.306 million, indicating a month-on-month decrease.

Conversely, housing building permits, considered a leading indicator, slightly decreased to 1.412 million from 1.415 million in the prior month but surpassed market expectations of 1.350 million. The persistent weakness in housing starts is mainly attributed to a decline in multifamily housing units.

Supporting reports indicate that while the U.S. economy showed strong GDP growth in Q3 2025 and recent monetary policy eased slightly, the housing market remains sluggish with elevated mortgage rates dampening a quick recovery in new home construction.

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