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Japan
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
China Expands Rare Earth Export Controls, Reshaping Global Supply Chains
Oct. 16, 2025 | Energy & Natural ResourcesChina has expanded its export controls on rare earth elements, requiring overseas firms to secure government approval before exporting any products containing specified Chinese-sourced minerals.
**China now requires overseas companies to obtain prior approval from its government before exporting products with trace amounts of designated rare earths sourced from China.**
This first global regulation of its kind covers five additional rare earth elements and extends Beijing’s authority beyond domestic production. The move will affect a wide range of industries, including defense, electric vehicles, and permanent magnet manufacturing.
**By mandating export approvals, China leverages its dominance—70 percent of global rare earth mining and over 90 percent of permanent magnet production—to influence international supply chains.**
The Ministry of Commerce has promised to approve shipments that meet its regulatory criteria and cited national security as justification. Observers note that China has structured these controls similarly to US financial sanctions, positioning itself to shape the global rare earth order and potentially create chokepoints in critical mineral flows.
**Japan has raised formal objections, with Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya warning that the controls could disrupt global supply chains and underscoring China’s role as a dominant supplier for technologies ranging from electric vehicles to weapons systems.**
In talks between Iwaya and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Tokyo sought assurances that the new measures would not further destabilize markets. Japan plans to coordinate with other nations and pursue appropriate countermeasures.
**The United States, the European Union, and a coalition of democracies have condemned China’s use of trade dependencies for political leverage.**
US Treasury officials have pledged a coordinated response with allies, while the EU is considering protective steps such as technology transfer requirements for Chinese firms operating in Europe. These reactions follow China’s recent sanctions on subsidiaries of a South Korean shipping company and escalating US-China trade tensions, including a threatened 100 percent tariff increase on Chinese goods.
**Global markets have already reacted: shares of Australian rare earth mining companies have climbed, and Indian automakers are accelerating research into alternative rare earth technologies.**
Analysts estimate that it will take years to develop substitute supply chains and technologies, reinforcing China’s near-term advantage. Over the long term, however, overly restrictive export controls could drive diversification away from Chinese sources, much like US export restrictions spurred the growth of China’s semiconductor industry.
IMF Raises 2025 Global Growth Outlook as Trade and Tech Risks Persist
Oct. 16, 2025 | Macroeconomics & GrowthGlobal growth is expected to improve in 2025, supported by tariff reductions and fiscal stimulus, yet trade tensions and technological risks threaten stability.
**On October 14, 2025, the International Monetary Fund updated its World Economic Outlook, raising its 2025 global growth estimate by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2 percent while holding the 2026 forecast at 3.1 percent.**
This upward revision reflects recent tariff reductions and the avoidance of retaliatory trade measures, but it still falls short of the pre-pandemic average of 3.7 percent and leaves substantial downside risks.
**At the country level, the IMF lifted its US growth projection for 2025 to 2.0 percent, citing tariff cuts and anticipated Federal Reserve rate reductions.**
In Japan, the forecast climbed 0.4 percentage points to 1.1 percent as expected wage gains support private consumption despite weaker external demand. Europe’s outlook improved to 1.2 percent for 2025, though the 2026 estimate dipped slightly to 1.1 percent. China’s growth forecast remains steady at 4.8 percent, supported by expanded fiscal stimulus amid lingering trade negotiation uncertainties.
**On the inflation front, the WEO projects global inflation at 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.7 percent in 2026.**
It warns that inflation in advanced economies could accelerate in late 2025 as consumer prices adjust to US tariffs. US inflation, the IMF predicts, should return to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target by 2027.
**Trade policy uncertainty remains another drag, as the report identifies ongoing tensions—particularly between the United States and China—as a major factor dampening corporate investment and growth.**
Although recent tariff reductions have yielded modest gains, the IMF warns that renewed trade frictions could fragment markets and threaten global stability. It also cites rising US inflation and unemployment as early indicators of tariff-related strain.
**The report also highlights technological risks.**
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas flagged potential overheating in artificial intelligence and technology investments, cautioning that a market correction in AI could spark inflationary pressures, prompt tighter central bank policies, and trigger significant repricing. He added that central banks face mounting pressure to loosen monetary policy but warned that sacrificing price stability for easier conditions could backfire.
Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Oct. 17, 2025
News
Media
364
Government
Releases
51
City/State
Releases
146
Embassy
Releases
0
Foreign
Service
Advisories
0
Service
Advisories
0
Academic/
Think
Tank
11
Think
Tank
11
Podcasts
0
Videos
0
Social
Media
0
Business
Releases
0
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Risk Categories Reported on Today
Risk Category
Items Reported On
Privacy
4
Crime
10
Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
3
Critical Infrastructure Failure
4
Regulation
7
Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
4
Accidents
9
Epidemics and Pandemics
2
Natural Disasters
2
Political Scandal or Corruption
1
Corporate Corruption or Fraud
1
Extreme Weather Events
4
Protest, Demonstration, Dissent
2
Climate Change
1
North Korea
1
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Operations Categories Reported on Today
Operations Category
Items Reported On
Bizdev-Partnering
9
Asset Price Change
11
Politics and Elections
13
Employment
10
Initiative
2
Demographics
2
Legal Exposure
2
Wages and Compensation
1
Tech Development/Adoption
3
Financial System Problems
3
Operating Results
4
Real Estate
6
Inflation
2
Economic Growth
3
Investor Sentiment
1
Political Policy Resistance
1
Mergers & Acquisitions
2
Taxes
1
Budgets-Budgeting
1
Energy Prices
1
田んぼのザリガニも暑さでゆで上がる…猛暑が与えるコメの質・量への影響、三重大学が調査し確認
Crayfish in Rice Fields Boil from the Heat... Mie University Investigates and Confirms the Impact of Extreme Heat on the Quality and Quantity of Rice
Chunichi Shimbun | Local Language | News | Oct. 17, 2025 | Extreme Weather Events
Crayfish were found dead in high-temperature rice fields in Tsu City, a phenomenon confirmed by Professor Sekiya Nobuto of Mie University. The investigation highlights the impact of extreme heat on aquatic life within rice paddies.
Mie University’s research also confirms that extreme heat affects both the quality and quantity of rice produced in these fields. This underscores the broader implications of rising temperatures on agricultural productivity in the region.
Japan turns to anti-dumping measures as international trade gets complicated
Japan Times | English | News | Oct. 17, 2025 | Regulation
Japan is increasing its use of trade defense mechanisms by launching a record number of anti-dumping investigations in 2025. This move aims to protect its domestic industries from China's overproduction and the broad tariffs imposed by the United States.
Anti-dumping measures are expected to become a more common feature of international trade as countries seek institutionalized methods to safeguard their markets. Economists note that after the long-term impacts of U.S. tariffs diminish, anti-dumping actions will likely become a key component of global trade defense strategies, reflecting a worldwide trend rather than one unique to Japan.
「生活の質」と住宅価格の関係～教育サービス・治安・医療サービスが新築マンション価格に及ぼす影響～
The Relationship Between Quality of Life and Housing Prices: The Impact of Educational Services, Public Safety, and Medical Services on New Condominium Prices
NLI Research Institute | Local Language | AcademicThink | Oct. 17, 2025 | UndeterminedReal Estate
A 2025 study by Senior Researcher Tasuku Yoshida examines how regional quality of life factors—specifically educational services, public safety, and medical services—affect new condominium prices. The analysis confirms that these three factors each have a statistically significant positive impact on condominium pricing.
The report notes a shift in housing preferences triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the rise of telework. Prior to the pandemic, transportation convenience and proximity to city centers were the primary considerations for homebuyers. Post-pandemic, however, perceptions of commuting time have evolved, and demand has diversified to place greater importance on quality-of-life factors such as education, safety, and healthcare.
The findings suggest that as interest in quality of life continues to grow, information about educational services, public safety, and medical services will become increasingly influential in real estate transactions and could drive further increases in new condominium prices. The report is part of ongoing research on housing market trends, urban planning, and well-being.
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