Try the Daily Briefing
Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.
Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics & Defense | (Force-projection footprint ↑ → Great-power rivalry intensity index ↑ → Military expenditure spike (% GDP) ↑ → Regional instability composite ↑) | Increased force projection is likely to heighten regional instability by triggering alliance shifts and military build-ups. |
| Geopolitics & Defense | (Sanctions & export-control aggressiveness ↑ → Sanctions breadth index ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↓ → FDI project postponement count ↑) | Broader US sanctions will deter foreign investors, reducing FDI and delaying critical projects for economic recovery. |
| Non-Interstate Conflict & Security | (Illicit small-arms inflow volume ↑ → Community self-defence militia mobilisation ↑ → Conflict-related school closure days ↑ → Internally displaced persons (stock) ↑) | Spiking small-arms smuggling and militia formation will disrupt schooling and displace growing numbers of civilians. |
| Transportation & Logistics | (Aviation bilateral & multilateral ASA openness ↓ → Air-cargo belly-capacity utilisation ↓ → Supply-chain disruption days per year ↑ → Logistics carbon-neutral shipment share ↓) | Restricted air services will exacerbate cargo delays and diminish carriers’ ability to maintain carbon-neutral logistics. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Terms-of-trade index ↓ → Real effective exchange-rate misalignment ↑ → Wholesale power price volatility index ↑ → Energy-sector foreign-exchange reserve drain ↑) | Deteriorating trade terms will fuel exchange-rate misalignment and power-price swings, compelling authorities to tap foreign-exchange reserves to sustain energy imports. |
| Geopolitics & Defense | (Strategic chokepoint throughput capacity ↓ → Shipping-insurance premium in high-risk zones ↑ → Freight-rate volatility index ↑ → Shipping-insurance cost share of trade value ↑) | Higher chokepoint risks will push up insurance costs and freight-rate volatility, making maritime trade significantly more expensive. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
東京エレクトロン追起訴 台湾検察、TSMC事件で
Tokyo Electron Rearrested by Taiwanese Prosecutors in TSMC Case
Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 7, 2026 | Corporate Corruption or Fraud
Taiwanese prosecutors have re-indicted the local subsidiary of Tokyo Electron in connection with the illicit acquisition of confidential information from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). The allegations include suspicions that secret documents related to TSMC's advanced semiconductor technology were copied and stored on Tokyo Electron’s cloud servers.
This incident is considered a breach of Taiwan's National Security Act due to the sensitive nature of the trade secrets involved. The case highlights ongoing concerns around corporate espionage and the protection of proprietary technology in the semiconductor industry.
「存立危機事態」認定の前に日本の港湾施設利用が不可欠 CSIS「明かりが消える?」㊥
Before Recognizing a State of Existential Crisis, Japan's Use of Port Facilities Is Indispensable CSIS Will the Lights Go Out? Part 2
The Sankei News | Local Language | News | Jan. 7, 2026 | Critical Infrastructure Failure
If China imposes a maritime blockade on Taiwan, Japan's role extends beyond direct armed force, especially before such a blockade is recognized as a "state of existential crisis." Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi indicated that Japan could use armed force if that threshold is met, but preventing China's attempt to change the status quo cannot rely on military action alone. The U.S. think tank CSIS highlights Japan’s indispensable non-combat roles in countering a blockade.
Taiwan's heavy dependence on maritime transport for essential goods, particularly energy imports amounting to 97%, makes it vulnerable to isolation. A successful blockade could pressure Taiwan into yielding to China’s demands for reunification without large-scale combat, which China finds an attractive option. CSIS simulations of blockades showed varied outcomes, including some escalation to full combat but generally indicated that a blockade might achieve reunification goals while minimizing civilian and allied military casualties.
The maritime blockade would legally be considered an act of force and likely provoke U.S. intervention, risking escalation into armed conflict. Japan has not dismissed recognizing an existential crisis if Taiwan faces attack, especially if U.S. forces are targeted. However, both the U.S. and Japan likely aim to prevent swift escalation to full-scale war, preferring scenarios that cause the blockade to fail or at least delay it until conditions favor containment or war preparations.
Maintaining open maritime routes for merchant ships is crucial to thwarting the blockade and sustaining Taiwan’s access to vital supplies. Ensuring continued naval and logistical support to keep shipping lanes operational is key to preventing China’s objectives through a blockade.
日本国債を誰が買う?~日銀撤退が進む中での安定消化に向けて
Who Will Buy Japanese Government Bonds? Toward Stable Absorption Amid the BOJ's Withdrawal Progress
NLI Research Institute | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 7, 2026 | UndeterminedFinancial System Problems
In 2025, Japanese government bond yields increased sharply due to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy normalization and expected fiscal expansion. The BOJ reduced its large-scale bond purchases, prompting banks and foreign investors to primarily absorb the increase in bond issuance and decline in BOJ holdings. However, relying heavily on these investors poses risks to stable bond absorption.
The report highlights households as a potential source for stabilizing bond demand, noting their currently low holding ratio of government bonds. Retail government bonds, designed with principal protection and early redemption features, have underperformed in sales, particularly the flagship 10-year variable-rate bond, which offers interest rates below market yields.
To address this, the report suggests expanding and enhancing retail government bond products by improving features and broadening the product lineup. This approach aims to increase household investment in government bonds, thereby stabilizing bond absorption and mitigating sharp yield fluctuations simultaneously.
Try the Daily Briefing for your country of choice for two weeks--free of charge and with no obligation.
Have a service or subscription question? We'd be happy to hear from you.
info@eruditerisk.com
The Daily Briefing is delivered Monday through Thursday via email.
Each day's reports include a combination of:
Takes
Takes are our deep dives into a topic of enduring interest or concern. Takes include copious references to all the media resources we gathered to build them.
Developments
Developments are key issues and incidents being heavily reported on in country. These are the centers of local thought gravity around which everything else revolves.
Risk Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important risk issues reported on in media, arranged by risk category. Learn about risk trends and issues while they are developing--before they blow up.
Ops Media
Summaries and analysis of the most important operational issues reported on in media, arranged by operations category. See what's changing in your market, and what's not.
Government Releases
Government press and data releases on key economic data, regulation, law, intiatives, incidents. Straight from the government's press to your eyes in less than a day.
Embassy and Business Association Releases
Statements and news releases from foreign embassies and business/industry associations, including chambers of commerce.
The Daily Briefing can run 50-100 pages each day!
Luckily, Erudite Risk tailors every report specifically to you.
Content Filtering
We try hard to ensure that every piece of information included in each day's reports will be of interest to our readers.
To fulfill our goal of comprehensively monitoring the intelligence landscape and also keeping reports readable, we build big reports--then deliver only the information that applies to you.
Each Daily Briefing is a bespoke report matched to your concerns. Tell us what you want in it, or we can match it to your professional needs. It's that easy.