Japan

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Tokyo stocks reach historic highs as semiconductor rally drives market surge
Jan. 15, 2026 | Financial System

Tokyo’s stock market reached new record highs, propelled by a rally in semiconductor stocks.

**On January 14, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 opened at 54,050.38 yen—its first entry into the 54,000 range—and climbed 501.22 yen from the previous close.**
For the second day in a row, the index set fresh peaks, closing the morning session at 54,413.92 yen (up 864.76 yen) and reopening in the afternoon at 54,461.07 yen near all-time highs.

**Semiconductor-related shares led the advance, supported by a three-day surge in the US Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.**
Advantest added roughly 330 yen to the Nikkei as the largest single-stock contributor, while Tokyo Electron, FANUC and Yaskawa Electric posted strong gains as investors poured into technology, machinery and precision instruments.

**Investors drew optimism from several supportive factors.**
The yen traded in the low 159-per-dollar range, bolstering exporters’ competitiveness. Geopolitical tensions drove gold above 26,000 yen per gram. Expectations for aggressive fiscal measures under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—and a possible snap lower-house election to solidify her mandate for expanded spending—spurred buying in infrastructure-related sectors.

**Trading volume in Tokyo reached 1.19 billion shares with a total value of 3.4782 trillion yen.**
Market breadth skewed positive, with 175 Nikkei components advancing, 47 declining and three unchanged. Mining, precision instruments, machinery and glass and stone products led sector gains, while information and communications, fisheries/agriculture/forestry and land transportation lagged.

**Other Tokyo benchmarks also rose.**
The TOPIX gained 31.40 points to close at 3,630.29, and the Standard TOP20 extended its rally on heavy volume of 318.87 million shares. In contrast, the Growth 250 and Growth Core indices slipped as investors took profits in smaller-cap and growth-oriented stocks.

**Large-cap performance diverged: Advantest, Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron lifted the market, but a steep drop in SoftBank Group shaved about 158 yen off the Nikkei, and TDK, Daiichi Sankyo and Toyota also retreated.**
This shift reflected sector rotation as investors reallocated toward policy-sensitive and export-benefit plays amid evolving domestic and global economic and political dynamics.
Yen Slides Toward 159 Amid Fiscal Uncertainty and Snap Election Signals
Jan. 15, 2026 | Macroeconomics & Growth

The yen’s fluctuating exchange rate against the dollar reflects growing concerns over Japan’s fiscal policy and market volatility.

**On January 12, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama met US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington to express shared concern over the yen’s recent steep depreciation.**
Katayama stressed Japan’s serious worry as the currency weakened to a one-year low, and Bessent agreed on the need for coordinated foreign-exchange policy and continued dialogue.

**The yen’s decline accelerated after reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would dissolve the House of Representatives and call a snap general election for February 8.**
Traders anticipated her administration would pursue more aggressive expansionary fiscal measures, stoking worries about Japan’s fiscal health and prompting widespread yen selling.

**In New York’s FX market on January 13, the yen traded around ¥158.74–158.84 per dollar before weakening to roughly ¥159.11–159.21 in subsequent sessions.**
The euro hovered near ¥185.2–¥185.3, while the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield briefly climbed to 2.150%, its highest level since February 1999. Japanese equities rallied alongside the falling yen: the Nikkei index surged more than 3% intraday to close at 53,623.09, and the Topix gained 2.44% to finish at 3,599.73.

**Traders briefly bought yen after the US December Consumer Price Index showed a 2.7% year-on-year increase, but dollar strength returned as political and fiscal uncertainty in Japan dominated sentiment.**
The dollar index rose to 99.15, while the euro and pound weakened.

**Market participants warn that any move toward the key ¥160 level could spur Japanese foreign-exchange intervention.**
Steven Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital notes the market skew favors further yen losses, suggesting intervention could trigger a sharp rebound. Kit Jacks of Société Générale views a breach past ¥160 as a short-selling opportunity, pointing out that Japanese authorities focus more on volatility and the pace of moves than on fixed exchange-rate thresholds.

**Analysts expect yen selling to persist alongside anticipated expansionary fiscal policy.**
While cash intervention offers a deterrent, they see limited scope for large-scale operations. Instead, verbal warnings may serve to delay further declines rather than fund major market intervention.

Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 16, 2026


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中国の貿易統計(25年12月)~輸出入ともドル建てで加速。対米輸出は減少が続く

China Trade Statistics (December 2025) – Exports and Imports Accelerate in Dollar Terms; Exports to the US Continue to Decline

NLI Research Institute | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 16, 2026 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

In December 2025, China’s merchandise exports and imports both showed acceleration in dollar terms, with exports rising 6.6% year-on-year and imports increasing 5.7%, according to preliminary trade statistics released by the General Administration of Customs on January 14, 2026. The trade surplus grew to $114.1 billion, up from $104.8 billion in the same month the previous year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports increased 2.5% month-on-month, and imports rose 4.9%. In renminbi terms, exports rose 5.2% year-on-year, and imports were up 4.4%, with the trade surplus reaching 808.8 billion yuan compared to 752.9 billion yuan a year earlier.

Exports to the United States continued to decline year-on-year, remaining in negative territory for the second consecutive month. In contrast, exports to ASEAN countries and Japan accelerated, while exports to the European Union decelerated. Product-wise, exports of computers, related parts, and mobile phones improved into positive growth, whereas home appliances remained in the negative. Integrated circuits and automobiles showed acceleration, but auto parts exports turned negative.

On the import side, imports from the United States also remained negative year-on-year. Imports from ASEAN destinations declined further, imports from the EU accelerated, and imports from Japan slowed down. Among products, crude oil imports turned positive, while imports of computers, related parts, and integrated circuits accelerated.

【#1332】Japan’s Position Seeks to Restore Democracy in Venezuela

Japan Institute for National Fundamentals | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 16, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

On January 13, 2026, the circumstances surrounding the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro were analyzed. The Trump administration justified this action based on Maduro’s regime policies since 2013, which included control-oriented economic measures that led to severe economic contraction, hyperinflation, and shortages causing mass emigration. Moreover, Maduro’s government was accused of repeated human rights violations and connections with terrorist-designated groups involved in narcotics trafficking, posing threats to U.S. security.

In response, the U.S. action aimed to promote Venezuela’s economic reconstruction and democratization, counteracting refugee crises, drug trafficking, and military threats from foreign powers such as China, Russia, and Cuba. The move was not intended as aggression or unlawful occupation but rather as a strategic attempt to restore stability and democratic governance in Venezuela.

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, on January 4, 2026, reiterated Japan’s long-standing position emphasizing the restoration of democracy, respect for freedom, democracy, and the rule of law in Venezuela. Japan committed to cooperating with G7 and regional countries to protect Japanese nationals and promote diplomatic efforts for democracy and stability in Venezuela. Japan underscored that political leaders undermining fundamental values cannot be justified, even if military actions like the U.S. capture of Maduro are contentious. Japan’s National Security Strategy highlights protecting Japanese interests while upholding universal values, and Japan reaffirmed its proactive contribution to peace through supporting a free and open international order based on the rule of law.

抗議のスタンディング「ガザでの虐殺に加担するために私の税金を使うな」 現地は人道支援も滞る状況で

Standing Protest Against the Use of My Taxes to Support Massacre in Gaza as Humanitarian Aid Falters On the Ground

Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | Protest, Demonstration, Dissent

Kenichi Nasu, a Tokyo-based after-school care worker, has been conducting a near-daily standing protest since November 2024 against Japan’s Defense Ministry considering the acquisition of Israeli-made attack drones. He opposes the use of his taxes to support Israeli military actions in Gaza, which have resulted in over 71,000 deaths since October 2023. Nasu emphasizes his desire to protect children and condemns Japan’s recent purchase of 24.1 billion yen worth of Israeli weapons and equipment, viewing this as support for violence in Gaza.

Japan’s Defense Ministry included a 3.2 billion yen budget in fiscal 2025 for 310 attack drones, which represent a shift from surveillance to combat usage. These drones are promoted for their affordability and combat capability, with Israel refining their performance in ongoing conflicts in Palestine. Experts note that Japan’s purchase could be interpreted as tacit approval of Israel’s military actions, despite Japan’s traditionally pacifist stance. Japan and Israel have strengthened defense ties through agreements on investment and classified information since 2017 and 2019.

A recent visit to Israel by a cross-party Japanese delegation, including LDP Security Research Council Chairman Gōdoku Onodera, drew criticism as they met with Prime Minister Netanyahu, who faces an international arrest warrant for war crimes. Onodera praised Israel’s air defense system and the visit was seen by protesters as Japan effectively endorsing Israel amid ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire even after a ceasefire began in October 2025, with UNICEF reporting continued child deaths and worsening conditions in displaced persons camps. Israel revoked permits for NGOs including Médecins Sans Frontières, which provides significant medical support in Gaza, ordering them to cease activities by March 1. Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi has called for unobstructed humanitarian aid and reiterated support for a two-state solution, but experts express skepticism about the effectiveness of international interventions amid ongoing violence.

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