Japan

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

China’s Large-Scale Military Drills around Taiwan Escalate Regional Tensions
Jan. 2, 2026 | Geopolitics & Defense

China’s military launched large-scale live-fire drills around Taiwan under the banner of “Justice Mission 2025.”

**The exercises entered their second day with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, Navy and missile units operating around the island.**
Beijing framed the drills as a stern warning against Taiwan independence and foreign interference after controversy arose over a potential record US arms sale and comments by Japan’s prime minister about possible intervention. In response, Taiwan’s government placed its armed forces on high alert and denounced China as a major threat to regional peace.

**China focused the live-fire exercises on sea-air combat readiness and joint superiority operations, simulating a blockade of key ports in the Taiwan Strait and nearby waters.**
The PLA deployed destroyers, frigates, fighter jets, bombers, reconnaissance drones and long-range rocket systems to conduct live-fire tests against maritime targets. China’s Defense Ministry defended the drills as a legitimate measure to safeguard national sovereignty and called on other nations to stop using Taiwan to contain China.

**Taiwan’s Defense Ministry labeled the exercises aggressive provocations with significant escalation potential.**
Its radar systems detected dozens of PLA aircraft and drones along with multiple warships and coast guard vessels near the strait. Taipei condemned the maneuvers as violations of international law and a direct challenge to cross-strait stability. It also accelerated development of an advanced air defense network known as the “Taiwan Shield” or “T-Dome.”

**The drills disrupted more than 850 international flights and led to numerous domestic cancellations and delays, affecting over 100,000 passengers.**
Taiwan’s transport authorities struggled with the logistical challenges of rerouting or grounding flights to avoid designated military zones.

**Japan’s Foreign Ministry lodged a diplomatic protest, with Press Secretary Kitamura Toshihiro warning that the exercises raise tensions across the Taiwan Strait and reaffirming Tokyo’s stance that the dispute must be resolved peacefully through dialogue.**
The European Union issued a similar statement, cautioning that the drills threaten international peace and stability and urging all parties to exercise restraint. Britain, Germany and France joined the EU in condemning any unilateral attempts to alter the status quo.

**In Washington, President Trump downplayed the exercises as routine naval maneuvers and pointed to his personal rapport with President Xi Jinping.**
However, US obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act continue to require support for Taiwan’s self-defense. After announcing the proposed arms sale, the US prompted Beijing to impose sanctions on several American defense firms involved in the deal.

**In his recent New Year address, President Xi Jinping reaffirmed that China’s momentum toward national unification remains unstoppable and that the traditional policy of not excluding force still stands.**
He showcased China’s advances in AI, semiconductors, drones and the new carrier Fujian as proof of the country’s growing power and innovation.
Business and Government Responses Intensify Amid Ongoing Yen Weakness
Jan. 2, 2026 | Macroeconomics & Growth

The yen’s recent depreciation has prompted the Bank of Japan’s policy adjustments and calls from Japan’s top business groups for a more balanced exchange rate.

**On December 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent, and Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled further increases in 2026.**
He framed the move as narrowing the rate gap with the United States to curb speculative yen selling, but investors sold yen ahead of earlier hikes, intensifying downward pressure on the currency.

**Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government is pursuing economic revitalization through tax relief and corporate capital investment.**
On December 18, it agreed with the opposition Democratic Party for the People to raise the tax-free annual income threshold to 1.78 million yen and approved large-scale budgets for fiscal 2025 and 2026. While these steps aim to boost take-home pay and domestic consumption, higher borrowing costs hit households carrying variable-rate mortgages. Young borrowers may see annual interest payments rise by 15,000 to 27,000 yen, offsetting much of the benefit from tax cuts.

**Looking ahead, the BOJ may press on with further rate increases if spring labor negotiations deliver wage growth, although those gains are likely to be concentrated at large firms employing only 30 percent of Japan’s workforce.**
At the same time, an improving fiscal balance offers scope for additional tax relief in 2026. Analysts say monetary tightening and fiscal expansion must proceed in step to strengthen both domestic demand and the yen without undermining either goal.

**Japan’s major business organizations have joined this call.**
Yoshinobu Tsutsui, chairman of the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren), urged corporate and labor leaders to deliver base-pay increases in the 2026 spring negotiations, building on momentum since 2023. He expects moderate economic expansion next year, driven by robust corporate earnings and capital spending, and advocates a moderate long-term yen appreciation to reduce import costs and enhance real wages once consumer inflation stabilizes. Ken Kobayashi, chairman of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, forecasts modest growth in 2026 supported by wage gains and digital transformation investments at small and medium-sized enterprises. He highlights that import costs driven by a weak yen have become a major inflation factor for SMEs and calls for gradual yen appreciation. He also warns of “wage-increase fatigue,” rising raw-material costs and succession challenges that threaten business closures, urging SMEs to boost profitability through productivity improvements and asking larger companies to pass appropriate price increases downstream. Akio Yamaguchi, representative secretary-general of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives, stressed that companies must continue raising wages to cope with higher prices and encouraged firms facing labor shortages to explore alliances or consolidations to maintain competitiveness.

Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 2, 2026


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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米政府、中国の企業とタンカーに制裁-ベネズエラへの圧力強化

US Government Sanctions Chinese Companies and Tankers to Intensify Pressure on Venezuela

Yahoo Finance | Local Language | News | Jan. 2, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned four Chinese companies and four associated oil tankers linked to Venezuela’s oil industry on December 31, 2025. The affected companies—Corniora in Zhejiang Province and Aries Global Investment, Creip Martle, and Winky International in Hong Kong—were added to the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN) list. The four tankers named are Della, Nord Star, Rosalind, and Valiant. These actions aim to increase pressure on Venezuela’s oil exports, a crucial revenue source for the Maduro regime.

The sanctions are significant because it is unusual for the U.S. to target Chinese companies operating on the ground in Venezuela, possibly signaling a warning to the Chinese government to avoid involvement in the U.S.-Venezuela confrontation. China remains Venezuela’s largest oil export destination, with oil constituting about 95 percent of Venezuela’s revenue. The Treasury described some of the tankers as part of a "shadow fleet" used by the Maduro regime to evade sanctions and fund destabilizing activities.

Additional U.S. measures include sanctions on individuals and entities in Iran and Venezuela suspected of arms dealings, Coast Guard seizures and pursuits of vessels tied to drug trafficking or sanctions evasion, and naval attacks resulting in the sinking of three vessels. These military operations underscore the increased U.S. efforts to disrupt Venezuela’s oil trade and narcotics trafficking.

China condemned the U.S. blockade of Venezuelan ports as “one-sided bullying” and argued that vessel seizures breach international law. Despite officially halting Venezuelan crude imports in 2019 due to U.S. sanctions, China resumed imports in February 2024, although unofficial purchases reportedly continued throughout the period, often through disguised shipments.

世界電気自動車バリューチェーンにおける構造変化とカーボン・パリティ

Structural Changes and Carbon Parity in the Global Electric Vehicle Value Chain

Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 2, 2026 | UndeterminedSupply Chain Issues

The global electric vehicle (EV) industry is undergoing significant structural transformation, with China dominating the value chain from mineral refining to battery manufacturing and vehicle assembly, capturing over 80 percent of domestic value added per EV. EV adoption and market shares vary by region, with China, Europe, and the U.S. as major players, and countries like Norway showing the highest EV penetration rates in operation and new car sales. Batteries, accounting for 40 percent of EV costs, alongside motors and controllers, are central to the EV supply chain, with China and Southeast Asia leading battery manufacturing, notably through dominant companies like CATL.

The life-cycle carbon emissions of EVs compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) differ across countries due to factors such as power grid carbon intensity and battery efficiency. EVs currently require several years of driving to reach carbon parity with ICEVs; for instance, 5.7 years in China, 7.6 in Japan, and 1.7 in the U.S. Improvements in battery technology and power-sector decarbonization can shorten these periods significantly. Although China emits more CO₂ during EV production due to energy-intensive processes, especially in battery manufacturing, overall EV emissions remain lower than ICEVs over time.

Policy approaches differ globally, with China providing substantial upstream subsidies fostering domestic ecosystem control, while countries like Japan offer downstream consumer subsidies, sometimes indirectly benefiting Chinese manufacturers. Import tariffs against Chinese EVs are high in regions like Europe and the U.S., posing market access challenges, whereas developing countries with weak domestic production and improving power infrastructure may become key future battlegrounds for EV adoption. Coordination between governments, industry, and academia is crucial for sustaining innovation and competitive advantage in the EV ecosystem.

Concerns exist regarding supply chain risks, particularly the imbalance between China's demand and supply of battery materials, driving Chinese investments in Latin America and Indonesia. Recycling of batteries is an emerging profitable sector in China, potentially impacting the global value chain. Developing countries with raw materials face challenges in securing technological capabilities and fair value sharing in the EV supply chain. Future policy shifts, exemplified by the EU allowing ICE vehicle sales post-2035, reflect geopolitical factors such as the Ukraine crisis and efforts to reduce dependence on China as a dominant EV exporter.

発注側の一方的な価格決定を禁止 下請けいじめ防ぐ改正法施行

Ban on unilateral price-setting by ordering parties enforcement of revised law to prevent subcontractor abuse

Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 2, 2026 | Regulation

The revised "Act on the Properness of Transactions with Small and Medium Enterprise Contractors (Toritsekiho)" came into effect on January 1, 2026. This law aims to prevent unfair practices by large companies in subcontracting relationships with small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It prohibits ordering parties from unilaterally setting transaction prices that do not reflect costs and bans the use of postdated promissory notes as a form of payment. The goal is to promote fair transactions throughout the supply chain and support SMEs in passing on costs and maintaining wage increases.

The law replaces the term "subcontracting" with "commissioning business operator" for the ordering party and "small and medium enterprise contractor" for the receiving party to emphasize equality in business relationships. It adds a prohibition against failing to negotiate prices with SMEs, addressing previously overlooked unfair practices. The legislation also seeks to shorten payment terms to reduce financial burdens on SMEs caused by delayed cash flow from promissory notes.

Applicability of the law no longer depends solely on capital size but also includes the number of employees. It primarily targets the manufacturing sector, applying when a company with more than 300 employees orders from a company with 300 or fewer employees. This revision aims to enhance the protection and sustainability of SMEs in business transactions with larger companies.

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