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North Korea Resumes Hypersonic Missile Tests Amid Regional Tensions
Jan. 6, 2026 | Geopolitics & Defense

North Korea has resumed its missile testing by launching at least two hypersonic ballistic missiles from near Pyongyang on Sunday, its first launches in two months.

**State media KCNA and South Korea’s military reported that the missiles flew around 1,000 kilometers eastward over the sea before striking their designated targets.**
Kim Jong Un supervised the exercise, praising the missile troops and describing the drills as an operational test of the country’s war deterrent.

**By staging the tests during South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s state visit to China and ahead of Lee’s summit with Xi Jinping, North Korea sent a deliberate message to Beijing.**
Analysts believe Pyongyang aimed to discourage closer China–South Korea ties and counter Chinese calls for denuclearization by asserting its strategic relevance amid talks that could reshape the peninsula’s security.

**In its statement, North Korea also condemned a recent US military operation in Venezuela, where American forces captured President Nicolás Maduro.**
It called the action a violation of sovereignty and criminal US aggression, linking its missile launches to both protest US intervention and demonstrate its own ability to deploy nuclear-capable delivery systems for deterrence.

**In the weeks before the tests, Kim Jong Un toured weapons factories and inspected a new nuclear-powered submarine, indicating a broader push to expand military capabilities.**
Observers see these inspections and the hypersonic launches as part of North Korea’s preparations for its Ninth Party Congress, where it will set long-term strategic goals.

**Experts such as Hong Min of the Korea Institute for National Unification say North Korea conducted the tests to prove it can fire hypersonic missiles on demand, aiming to complicate US and South Korean missile defenses and deter interception.**
The regime’s messaging stresses its readiness and technological advances as regional tensions rise.

**South Korea and Japan condemned the launches, accusing Pyongyang of violating U.N.**
Security Council resolutions and urging it to stop provocative actions. Meanwhile, South Korean officials expect President Lee to press China to help facilitate dialogue with North Korea during his talks with Xi Jinping.
US Military Raid in Venezuela Triggers Global Backlash and Regional Instability
Jan. 6, 2026 | Geopolitics & Defense

The US military operation in Venezuela on January 4, 2026 triggered a cascade of domestic and international responses.

**US forces launched an operation in Venezuela on January 4, 2026, detaining President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and installing Vice President Rodríguez as acting president.**
Explosions in Caracas accompanied the raid, and the Venezuelan government declared its own “operation” in response. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino condemned the intervention as a threat to global order and a “colonialist pretension,” while close aides to Maduro vowed to continue governing despite reported casualties among security personnel, soldiers, and civilians.

**President Trump asserted that the US would “run” Venezuela until conditions for a transition of power were met.**
Secretary of State Marco Rubio imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil shipments, barring any sanctioned exports or imports until governance reforms ensure that oil revenues benefit the Venezuelan people.

**Japan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Toshihiro Kitamura said Tokyo would prioritize the safety of its nationals in Venezuela, monitor developments closely, and coordinate with partner countries.**
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reaffirmed Japan’s commitment to freedom, democracy, and the rule of law, noted ongoing diplomatic efforts with the G7 and other allies to restore democracy in Venezuela, and reported no harm to Japanese citizens. Within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Itsunori Onodera criticized the US action as a forcible change of the status quo inconsistent with US critiques of China and Russia. Komeito officials Masaaki Taniai and Tetsuo Saito urged a rule-of-law approach, respect for national sovereignty, and the protection of Japanese nationals, while Policy Research Council Chairman Mitsunari Okamoto announced plans to convey Japan’s concerns to Washington. Opposition leaders voiced stronger disapproval: Yoshihiko Noda questioned the action’s legality under the UN Charter and warned it might set a precedent for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; Yuichiro Tamaki cautioned it could legitimize similar interventions by China and Russia; and Communist Party executive Kazuo Shii demanded that Japan formally denounce the operation.

**China’s Foreign Ministry condemned the raid as a violation of international law and the UN Charter, called for the immediate release of Maduro and his wife, and urged dialogue to resolve the crisis.**
Chinese state media branded the intervention “naked hegemonic behavior,” and officials used the incident to underscore Beijing’s positions on Taiwan, Tibet, and South China Sea disputes. Despite conducting large-scale military exercises around Taiwan and voicing rhetorical support for Maduro, Chinese analysts and Taiwanese officials agreed the Venezuela operation was unlikely to trigger an invasion of Taiwan, citing China’s current military constraints and the distinct domestic framing of the Taiwan issue.

**European leaders also reacted strongly.**
European Council President António Costa called for de-escalation in accordance with international law. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized upholding international norms and consulting with the US to clarify the facts. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot condemned both Maduro’s human rights violations and the US strike’s breach of the prohibition on the use of force, warning of risks to global security if Security Council members ignore international law. Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said he was closely monitoring the situation and stood ready to support the nearby Dutch Caribbean islands.

**Public opinion polls showed that over 76 percent of respondents believed the US attack would have a very large global impact.**
In the United States, legal scholars and commentators questioned the operation’s legal basis, while Venezuelan authorities struggled to mount an effective response amid the leadership detentions.

**The raid also disrupted civil aviation across the Caribbean when the FAA closed portions of the region’s airspace.**
By the afternoon of January 4, US carriers including American Airlines and Delta Air Lines began restoring routes to Barbados, Aruba, Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, and Trinidad and Tobago, adding flights and deploying larger aircraft. Experts projected a two- to three-day recovery period due to displaced crews and equipment.

**Analysts stressed that the Venezuelan operation unfolded against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s military exercises around Taiwan, noting potential spillover effects on East Asian stability.**
They suggested it might push Taiwan to deepen ties with Washington, though they deemed immediate military escalation in the Taiwan Strait unlikely.






### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**









































Domain Causal Chain Possible Outcome
Geopolitics & Defense (Force-projection footprint ↑ → Great-power rivalry intensity index ↑ → Military expenditure spike (% GDP) ↑ → Regional instability composite ↑) Increased force projection is likely to heighten regional instability by triggering alliance shifts and military build-ups.
Geopolitics & Defense (Sanctions & export-control aggressiveness ↑ → Sanctions breadth index ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↓ → FDI project postponement count ↑) Broader US sanctions will deter foreign investors, reducing FDI and delaying critical projects for economic recovery.
Non-Interstate Conflict & Security (Illicit small-arms inflow volume ↑ → Community self-defence militia mobilisation ↑ → Conflict-related school closure days ↑ → Internally displaced persons (stock) ↑) Spiking small-arms smuggling and militia formation will disrupt schooling and displace growing numbers of civilians.
Transportation & Logistics (Aviation bilateral & multilateral ASA openness ↓ → Air-cargo belly-capacity utilisation ↓ → Supply-chain disruption days per year ↑ → Logistics carbon-neutral shipment share ↓) Restricted air services will exacerbate cargo delays and diminish carriers’ ability to maintain carbon-neutral logistics.
Macroeconomics & Growth (Terms-of-trade index ↓ → Real effective exchange-rate misalignment ↑ → Wholesale power price volatility index ↑ → Energy-sector foreign-exchange reserve drain ↑) Deteriorating trade terms will fuel exchange-rate misalignment and power-price swings, compelling authorities to tap foreign-exchange reserves to sustain energy imports.
Geopolitics & Defense (Strategic chokepoint throughput capacity ↓ → Shipping-insurance premium in high-risk zones ↑ → Freight-rate volatility index ↑ → Shipping-insurance cost share of trade value ↑) Higher chokepoint risks will push up insurance costs and freight-rate volatility, making maritime trade significantly more expensive.




### BOTTOM LINE

- The immediate, dominant trigger was a US-led military operation on January 4 that detained President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and installed Vice President Rodríguez as acting president, which directly produced armed resistance in Venezuela and an official Venezuelan counter-response; this sequence (US raid → leadership detention → competing governance claims → domestic fighting) is the central causal chain driving security and political instability in the hemisphere.



- A second, reinforcing driver was President Trump’s public declaration that the United States would “run” Venezuela until conditions for transition were met, which transformed a tactical operation into an open-ended governance posture and lengthened the crisis timeline (public assertion → expectation of prolonged US presence → hardened domestic resistance and broader diplomatic costs).



- The administration’s oil-sector sanctions (blocking Venezuelan oil exports and related transactions) create an immediate fiscal choke on Caracas, with the causal edge (sanctions → oil-revenue collapse → budget gaps → accelerated foreign-exchange reserve use → shortages of fuel and power inputs) that is most likely to produce economic hardship, service breakdowns, and pressure on neighboring countries receiving migrants and trade disruptions.



- International political backlash is broad and bipartisan outside the US, with China, much of Europe, and Japanese opposition leaders condemning the operation; the causal path (raid → international condemnation and legal questions → diplomatic isolation risk for the US → fractured coalition-building) makes unified multilateral responses or Security Council sanctioning less likely and increases the salience of bilateral manoeuvring by Moscow and Beijing.



- Russia and China will leverage the crisis to score diplomatic points and expand political and material support to Maduro-aligned actors without crossing into direct conventional confrontation, producing a predictable chain (US intervention → great-power counter-response short of open war → increased arms sales, military exercises, and naval presence in the region) that raises regional threat perceptions and encourages partner states to increase defense spending.



- Security on the ground is likely to deteriorate in the medium term as fighting and porous borders boost arms trafficking and local self-defence groups; the causal link (leadership vacuum and combat operations → arms inflows → militia formation → school closures and internal displacement) is the most probable route to a growing humanitarian and internal-security crisis requiring scaled aid and protection operations.



- Civil aviation and logistics will see near-term disruption from FAA airspace closures and carrier rerouting, with an expected operational recovery measured in days for passenger services but longer for normalized cargo flows; the causal sequence (airspace closure → routing and crew dislocations → reduced belly cargo capacity → short-term supply-chain delays and higher logistics costs) will affect time-sensitive goods and force carriers to replan rotations and contingency staffing.



- Maritime trade and insurance costs are likely to increase modestly as shippers price heightened Caribbean risk and chokepoint uncertainty, following the chain (regional instability → higher perceived transit risk → insurance premiums and freight volatility ↑ → higher landed costs and sporadic service reconfiguration), which will be felt most by trade lanes connecting Latin America to North America and Europe.



- Financial and investment consequences will be tangible and near-term: multinational investors will pause Venezuela-related projects and related regional ventures, leading to reduced foreign direct investment and deferred energy-sector recovery projects, via the causal edge (sanctions and legal risk → investor retrenchment → project postponements → slower economic stabilization).



- The legal and normative fallout is consequential for future crises because the operation raises contested precedent questions under the UN Charter; the causal relationship (unilateral use of force → legal controversy and public delegitimization → reluctance among some allies to endorse US actions) will make future coalition-building for interventions more complicated and may prompt stronger diplomatic protection for regimes targeted by major powers.



- Most likely timelines and magnitudes are practical and bounded: expect intensified diplomatic activity and public condemnation in days to weeks, localized fighting and humanitarian deterioration over weeks to months, aviation normalization over days but cargo and logistics effects over several weeks, and an elevated regional security posture with higher defense budgets and persistent political fragmentation over months to a few years.



- Recommended near-term actions for decision-makers and operators are to establish deconfliction and humanitarian channels immediately, articulate a clear legal and exit strategy to reduce uncertainty, calibrate sanctions to preserve humanitarian supply lines, prepare aviation and ports for contingency routing and crew rotations, and scale pre-positioned humanitarian assistance and protection programming for displaced populations; these practical steps follow directly from the causal chains above and offer the best chance to limit escalation and human suffering.

Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 7, 2026


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東京エレクトロン追起訴 台湾検察、TSMC事件で

Tokyo Electron Rearrested by Taiwanese Prosecutors in TSMC Case

Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 7, 2026 | Corporate Corruption or Fraud

Taiwanese prosecutors have re-indicted the local subsidiary of Tokyo Electron in connection with the illicit acquisition of confidential information from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). The allegations include suspicions that secret documents related to TSMC's advanced semiconductor technology were copied and stored on Tokyo Electron’s cloud servers.

This incident is considered a breach of Taiwan's National Security Act due to the sensitive nature of the trade secrets involved. The case highlights ongoing concerns around corporate espionage and the protection of proprietary technology in the semiconductor industry.

「存立危機事態」認定の前に日本の港湾施設利用が不可欠 CSIS「明かりが消える?」㊥

Before Recognizing a State of Existential Crisis, Japan's Use of Port Facilities Is Indispensable CSIS Will the Lights Go Out? Part 2

The Sankei News | Local Language | News | Jan. 7, 2026 | Critical Infrastructure Failure

If China imposes a maritime blockade on Taiwan, Japan's role extends beyond direct armed force, especially before such a blockade is recognized as a "state of existential crisis." Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi indicated that Japan could use armed force if that threshold is met, but preventing China's attempt to change the status quo cannot rely on military action alone. The U.S. think tank CSIS highlights Japan’s indispensable non-combat roles in countering a blockade.

Taiwan's heavy dependence on maritime transport for essential goods, particularly energy imports amounting to 97%, makes it vulnerable to isolation. A successful blockade could pressure Taiwan into yielding to China’s demands for reunification without large-scale combat, which China finds an attractive option. CSIS simulations of blockades showed varied outcomes, including some escalation to full combat but generally indicated that a blockade might achieve reunification goals while minimizing civilian and allied military casualties.

The maritime blockade would legally be considered an act of force and likely provoke U.S. intervention, risking escalation into armed conflict. Japan has not dismissed recognizing an existential crisis if Taiwan faces attack, especially if U.S. forces are targeted. However, both the U.S. and Japan likely aim to prevent swift escalation to full-scale war, preferring scenarios that cause the blockade to fail or at least delay it until conditions favor containment or war preparations.

Maintaining open maritime routes for merchant ships is crucial to thwarting the blockade and sustaining Taiwan’s access to vital supplies. Ensuring continued naval and logistical support to keep shipping lanes operational is key to preventing China’s objectives through a blockade.

日本国債を誰が買う?~日銀撤退が進む中での安定消化に向けて

Who Will Buy Japanese Government Bonds? Toward Stable Absorption Amid the BOJ's Withdrawal Progress

NLI Research Institute | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 7, 2026 | UndeterminedFinancial System Problems

In 2025, Japanese government bond yields increased sharply due to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy normalization and expected fiscal expansion. The BOJ reduced its large-scale bond purchases, prompting banks and foreign investors to primarily absorb the increase in bond issuance and decline in BOJ holdings. However, relying heavily on these investors poses risks to stable bond absorption.

The report highlights households as a potential source for stabilizing bond demand, noting their currently low holding ratio of government bonds. Retail government bonds, designed with principal protection and early redemption features, have underperformed in sales, particularly the flagship 10-year variable-rate bond, which offers interest rates below market yields.

To address this, the report suggests expanding and enhancing retail government bond products by improving features and broadening the product lineup. This approach aims to increase household investment in government bonds, thereby stabilizing bond absorption and mitigating sharp yield fluctuations simultaneously.

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