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Japan
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Tokyo stocks reach historic highs as semiconductor rally drives market surge
Jan. 15, 2026 | Financial SystemTokyo’s stock market reached new record highs, propelled by a rally in semiconductor stocks.
**On January 14, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 opened at 54,050.38 yen—its first entry into the 54,000 range—and climbed 501.22 yen from the previous close.**
For the second day in a row, the index set fresh peaks, closing the morning session at 54,413.92 yen (up 864.76 yen) and reopening in the afternoon at 54,461.07 yen near all-time highs.
**Semiconductor-related shares led the advance, supported by a three-day surge in the US Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.**
Advantest added roughly 330 yen to the Nikkei as the largest single-stock contributor, while Tokyo Electron, FANUC and Yaskawa Electric posted strong gains as investors poured into technology, machinery and precision instruments.
**Investors drew optimism from several supportive factors.**
The yen traded in the low 159-per-dollar range, bolstering exporters’ competitiveness. Geopolitical tensions drove gold above 26,000 yen per gram. Expectations for aggressive fiscal measures under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—and a possible snap lower-house election to solidify her mandate for expanded spending—spurred buying in infrastructure-related sectors.
**Trading volume in Tokyo reached 1.19 billion shares with a total value of 3.4782 trillion yen.**
Market breadth skewed positive, with 175 Nikkei components advancing, 47 declining and three unchanged. Mining, precision instruments, machinery and glass and stone products led sector gains, while information and communications, fisheries/agriculture/forestry and land transportation lagged.
**Other Tokyo benchmarks also rose.**
The TOPIX gained 31.40 points to close at 3,630.29, and the Standard TOP20 extended its rally on heavy volume of 318.87 million shares. In contrast, the Growth 250 and Growth Core indices slipped as investors took profits in smaller-cap and growth-oriented stocks.
**Large-cap performance diverged: Advantest, Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron lifted the market, but a steep drop in SoftBank Group shaved about 158 yen off the Nikkei, and TDK, Daiichi Sankyo and Toyota also retreated.**
This shift reflected sector rotation as investors reallocated toward policy-sensitive and export-benefit plays amid evolving domestic and global economic and political dynamics.
Yen Slides Toward 159 Amid Fiscal Uncertainty and Snap Election Signals
Jan. 15, 2026 | Macroeconomics & GrowthThe yen’s fluctuating exchange rate against the dollar reflects growing concerns over Japan’s fiscal policy and market volatility.
**On January 12, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama met US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington to express shared concern over the yen’s recent steep depreciation.**
Katayama stressed Japan’s serious worry as the currency weakened to a one-year low, and Bessent agreed on the need for coordinated foreign-exchange policy and continued dialogue.
**The yen’s decline accelerated after reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would dissolve the House of Representatives and call a snap general election for February 8.**
Traders anticipated her administration would pursue more aggressive expansionary fiscal measures, stoking worries about Japan’s fiscal health and prompting widespread yen selling.
**In New York’s FX market on January 13, the yen traded around ¥158.74–158.84 per dollar before weakening to roughly ¥159.11–159.21 in subsequent sessions.**
The euro hovered near ¥185.2–¥185.3, while the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield briefly climbed to 2.150%, its highest level since February 1999. Japanese equities rallied alongside the falling yen: the Nikkei index surged more than 3% intraday to close at 53,623.09, and the Topix gained 2.44% to finish at 3,599.73.
**Traders briefly bought yen after the US December Consumer Price Index showed a 2.7% year-on-year increase, but dollar strength returned as political and fiscal uncertainty in Japan dominated sentiment.**
The dollar index rose to 99.15, while the euro and pound weakened.
**Market participants warn that any move toward the key ¥160 level could spur Japanese foreign-exchange intervention.**
Steven Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital notes the market skew favors further yen losses, suggesting intervention could trigger a sharp rebound. Kit Jacks of Société Générale views a breach past ¥160 as a short-selling opportunity, pointing out that Japanese authorities focus more on volatility and the pace of moves than on fixed exchange-rate thresholds.
**Analysts expect yen selling to persist alongside anticipated expansionary fiscal policy.**
While cash intervention offers a deterrent, they see limited scope for large-scale operations. Instead, verbal warnings may serve to delay further declines rather than fund major market intervention.
Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 16, 2026
News
Media
374
Government
Releases
45
City/State
Releases
140
Embassy
Releases
0
Foreign
Service
Advisories
0
Service
Advisories
0
Academic/
Think
Tank
21
Think
Tank
21
Podcasts
0
Videos
0
Social
Media
0
Business
Releases
0
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Risk Categories Reported on Today
Risk Category
Items Reported On
Regulation
7
Natural Disasters
5
Privacy
3
Epidemics and Pandemics
2
Product Recalls
2
Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
10
Critical Infrastructure Failure
2
Regulatory Enforcement Actions
2
Corporate Corruption or Fraud
11
Crime
6
Protest, Demonstration, Dissent
2
Accidents
5
Political Scandal or Corruption
4
Extreme Weather Events
1
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Operations Categories Reported on Today
Operations Category
Items Reported On
Bizdev-Partnering
4
Tech Development/Adoption
3
Employment
9
Legal Exposure
2
Taxes
3
Real Estate
2
Operating Results
3
Politics and Elections
8
Asset Price Change
11
Budgets-Budgeting
3
Demographics
2
Trade Issues and Numbers
4
Economic Growth
4
Investor Sentiment
1
Financial System Problems
1
Inflation
1
Energy Prices
1
Japan Panel Seeks Rationale for Curbing Foreigners' Land Purchases
Nippon | English | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
A Japanese government panel has proposed further legislative discussions to clarify the rationale for regulating foreign acquisitions and use of domestic land, citing national security concerns. The panel’s opinion, submitted to economic security minister Kimi Onoda, emphasizes the need to balance these security risks with economic freedoms and adherence to international commitments, all grounded in the principle of the rule of law.
The panel also recommended that authorities improve information-sharing and optimize current systems by gaining a clearer understanding of foreign-related land transactions. Additionally, it suggested implementing a program requiring foreign residents to learn Japanese language and social norms as a condition for mid- to long-term residence permits. The government plans to announce its policy direction by the end of January 2026.
鳥取、島根の地震活動「活発」 政府調査委が評価
Earthquake activity in Tottori and Shimane described as active by government investigation committee
Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | Natural Disasters
The government’s Earthquake Investigation Committee reported on January 14 that earthquake activity remains active in Tottori and Shimane prefectures following a recent tremor on January 6, which registered a seismic intensity of upper 5. By January 12, 51 tremors of intensity 1 or higher had been recorded in an east-west span of 10 kilometers. The committee also increased the probability of a trench-type earthquake occurring off Nemuro within the next 30 years from about 80% to about 90%, though Chairman Nao Hirata clarified the increase was due to rounding and not a significant rise.
In addition to the Nemuro region, the committee raised the probability of an earthquake near the landward side off Miyagi Prefecture from about 80–90% to a value of about 80–90% or higher. This adjustment reflects the annual recalculation of earthquake probabilities that naturally increase over time. Hirata noted that no active fault is known for the recent quake in eastern Shimane Prefecture, but the area is prone to many damaging earthquakes caused by complex underground structures.
貸出・マネタリー統計（25年12月）～銀行貸出の急拡大が続く一方、日銀の資金供給量は減少加速
Lending and Monetary Statistics (December 2025) – While Bank Lending Continues to Rapidly Expand, the Bank of Japan's Fund Supply Volume Accelerates Its Decline
NLI Research Institute | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 16, 2026 | UndeterminedFinancial System Problems
Bank lending in December 2025 increased by 4.81% year-on-year, with a notable expansion among city banks. This growth appears driven by funding demand related to mergers and acquisitions, real estate transactions, and working capital needs resulting from rising costs.
Concurrently, the Bank of Japan’s monetary base has been contracting for seven consecutive months, with an accelerated pace of decline following the normalization of monetary policy. The overall volume of funds supplied by the Bank of Japan has decreased.
Money stock growth has slowed slightly, although there is a noticeable shift in the composition of funds. Depositors are moving money away from cash and ordinary deposits toward time deposits and certain risk assets.
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