Japan

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Keidanren Issues 2026 Guidelines Calling for Standardized Base Pay Increases in Spring Wage Negotiations

Jan. 22, 2026 | Firms

Japan’s leading business federation Keidanren has issued its 2026 spring labor-management negotiation guidelines, urging companies to adopt base pay increases as the standard approach to wage growth.

**The guidelines shift from the 2025 report’s suggestion to merely consider base pay raises, recommending instead that firms take a medium- to long-term perspective on wage growth to secure positive real wages amid rising prices and interest rates.**
Chair Hitoshi Nagasawa stressed that raising workers’ wages will strengthen the Japanese economy, even as US tariffs and strained relations with China create external challenges. Keidanren pledges to promote wage increases, including base-up adjustments, provided no major crisis emerges, and emphasizes that companies can differentiate pay hikes according to job roles and individual contributions.

**In 2025 spring negotiations, large companies achieved an average wage increase of 5.39 percent, and Keidanren expects comparable or higher gains in 2026.**
Yet real wages have fallen for eleven consecutive months through November 2025, showing that nominal wage gains have not kept pace with inflation. Companies and government alike will need to pursue substantial pay rises alongside measures to curb price inflation.

**Recognizing that small and medium-sized enterprises employ roughly seventy percent of Japan’s workforce, the guidelines call for concrete steps to sustain wage growth in these firms.**
Keidanren urges large companies to support their SME suppliers through fair price negotiations and to assist them in personnel management and digitalization efforts, ensuring costs can pass through the supply chain.

Nagasawa expressed concern that cost pass-through remains inadequately implemented, and he urged companies to establish proper mechanisms to maintain momentum in wage increases and support economic stability.

**The 2026 spring labor offensive begins on January 27 with a meeting between Keidanren and Rengo chairmen.**
Keidanren notes that average wage increases at large firms have risen from 3.99 percent in 2023 to 5.58 percent in 2024 and 5.39 percent in 2025, even as real wages declined by 2.8 percent year-on-year in November 2025. This gap reflects the ongoing mismatch between wage growth and inflation.

**Aligning with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s call for a third consecutive year of around five percent wage hikes, Keidanren reaffirms its role in sustaining this momentum.**
While large companies have led substantial increases, SMEs have recorded average hikes of around four percent and now face signs of “wage-increase fatigue” as labor costs rise.

**To reverse the decline in real wages, the guidelines urge large firms to engage in good-faith price negotiations with SME contractors and reference the newly enacted Toritsugi Act, which mandates proper subcontracting transactions and prohibits unilateral price setting without consultation.**
Keidanren views these measures as essential to improving the business environment for SMEs and stabilizing overall wage growth around five percent.

**In its January 20, 2026 guidelines, Keidanren committed to leading this year’s spring wage negotiations in line with the Japanese Trade Union Confederation’s target of at least five percent increases.**
The federation also proposed weighting pay hikes more heavily toward individual contributions, providing fixed-amount payments to all workers, and granting larger increases to younger employees.

Heavy Snowfall Disrupts Transportation and Power in Japan’s Sea of Japan Coastal Regions

Jan. 22, 2026 | Transportation & Logistics

Strong cold air flowing across Japan is set to drive heavy snowfall along the Sea of Japan coast from the northern to western regions through late January 2026.

**The Japan Meteorological Agency projects that this strong cold air will persist until around January 25, 2026, producing heavy snow primarily along the Sea of Japan coast.**
Beginning January 22, snowfall will intensify in the Hokuriku and San’in areas, and even locations on the Pacific side that rarely see snow may record significant accumulations.

Above eastern Japan, temperatures at roughly 5,000 meters may fall below –40 °C, while western Japan could see readings below –12 °C at about 1,500 meters, creating conditions that support heavy snowfall in lowland coastal zones.

**Snowfall rates have already reached as much as 24 centimeters in six hours in some areas.**
Forecasts through Friday morning call for total accumulations up to 100 centimeters in Hokuriku and Niigata Prefecture, with 30 to 70 centimeters expected across Tohoku, Kinki, Hokkaido, Tokai, and Chugoku. In addition, bands of heavy snow clouds tied to the Japan Sea polar air mass convergence zone may extend snowfall into typically clear flatlands and Pacific coast areas.

**Heavy snow may disrupt road networks and force traffic closures to prevent vehicle stranding.**
Overhead power lines could suffer outages from snow loading, and mountainous terrain faces elevated avalanche hazards. Starting January 22, authorities plan preventive closures on several expressway sections in Gifu Prefecture and neighboring areas, including the Meishin Expressway between Ritto Konan (Shiga) and Ichinomiya (Aichi), the Tokai-Kanjo Expressway from Yoro to Minoseki (both in Gifu), and the Hokuriku Expressway between Maibara (Shiga) and Tsuruga (Fukui). Some national routes may also close depending on snowfall severity.

**Officials from the Chubu Regional Development Bureau and the Nagoya Local Meteorological Observatory strongly urge the public to avoid nonessential travel, secure necessary supplies, and consider rescheduling plans as conditions warrant.**

Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 23, 2026

News
Media
386

Government
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55

City/State
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128

Embassy
Releases
1

Foreign
Service
Advisories
0

Academic/
Think
Tank
19

Podcasts
0

Videos
0

Social
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0

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1

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Espionage by Ex-Russian Official "Regrettable": Japan Spokesman

Nippon | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara described alleged espionage involving a former employee of Russia's trade representation in Japan as "regrettable." The individual was referred to Japanese prosecutors on suspicion of illegally obtaining trade secrets from a Japanese machine tool manufacturer, in violation of the unfair competition prevention law.

The Foreign Ministry communicated Japan's position on the incident to Russia. Kihara emphasized the importance of strictly addressing foreign agency activities to protect national interests and the safety of Japanese citizens. He also highlighted the need to enact legislation against espionage, as outlined in the coalition agreement between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party.

3/17、2026年版九州経済白書説明会「食･農の未来」【久留米会場】

March 17, 2026 Kyushu Economic White Paper Briefing Session "The Future of Food and Agriculture" Kurume Venue

Kyushu Economic Research Center | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

On March 17, 2026, a briefing session titled "The Future of Food and Agriculture" was held in Kurume City, focusing on the challenges and prospects for Kyushu's agricultural sector. The session addressed issues such as the decline and aging of the agricultural workforce, increasing abandoned farmland, and unstable yields due to climate change-related factors like abnormal weather and natural disasters. The briefing aimed to discuss strategies for enhancing agriculture's appeal, maintaining and strengthening production bases—including people, land, and technology—and adapting to changing consumer demands.

The 2026 Kyushu Economic White Paper was the basis for the briefing, covering topics such as food security, current production and distribution challenges, structural changes in Kyushu agriculture, labor securing in local communities, changes in food distribution, and environmental responses related to food production. The event was held at the Chikugin Bank Head Office with a capacity of 60 participants, free of charge, and featured Hideyuki Okano, Executive Managing Director of the Kyushu Economic Research Association, as the presenter.

Participants were encouraged to purchase the 2026 White Paper at the venue for a discounted price to enhance their understanding. The event was organized by Chikugin Bank, the Chikugin Regional Economic Research Institute, the Kurume Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and the Kyushu Economic Research Association. Attendees were advised there was no parking available and entry was on a first-come, first-served basis without issued admission tickets.

令和8年「トクリュウ対策強化の年に」猛威振るう特殊詐欺、撲滅のカギは国際連携

Year 2026: Strengthening Measures Against Tokuryu Special Fraud Rampaging Fiercely, The Key to Eradication Lies in International Cooperation

The Sankei News | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Corporate Corruption or Fraud

In December of Reiwa 7 (2025), Justice Minister Hiroshi Hiraguchi convened prosecutors dealing with organized crime to instruct strict enforcement of countermeasures against Tokuryu special fraud, noting the rise of crimes by anonymous, mobile groups. The authorities have designated 2026 as a key year to enhance efforts against this growing threat.

Data from the National Police Agency shows that by the end of October 2025, special fraud cases numbered 22,657 with damages totaling 109.7 billion yen, marking significant increases from the previous year. The use of international phone numbers in these crimes also surged, reaching 79,477 incidents.

Due to the difficulty in controlling Tokuryu fraud, the Supreme Public Prosecutors Office announced in October 2025 a policy to actively use plea bargaining to encourage cooperation in investigations, aiming to accelerate prosecutions. Prosecutors nationwide have been assigned to facilitate plea bargaining processes.

Minister Hiraguchi emphasized utilizing the Organized Crime Punishment Act and investigative tools like wiretapping and plea bargains. The Ministry of Justice, prosecutors, and police have aligned to prioritize Tokuryu countermeasures in 2026.

Law enforcement actions highlight the international dimension of the issue, with arrests involving Japanese high school students recruited to fraud bases in Myanmar and operators managing fraud networks out of Cambodia. Overseas-based special fraud operations have expanded rapidly in recent years.

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