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Japan
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Tokyo Assembly Election Reshapes Political Landscape Amid Rising Independent Influence and Party Scandals
June 16, 2025 | PoliticsTokyo voters will cast their ballots on June 22 to shape both the Metropolitan Assembly and signal broader national political trends.
**On June 22, Tokyo residents will elect 127 assembly members from a record 295 candidates, with over 11.5 million registered voters.**
As Japan’s largest local election, its outcome offers a window into shifting party strengths and the appeal of independent candidates in the capital’s electorate. The contest coincides with the looming Upper House election, heightening its importance for party strategists and observers of national electoral dynamics.
**The assembly traces its origins to the first Tokyo Prefectural Assembly election in December 1878, when only male taxpayers over age 20 could vote and figures such as Fukuzawa Yukichi and Yasuda Zenjiro won seats.**
In 1943, that prefectural body became the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. A turning point occurred in 1965 with the Black Mist Incident, when bribery arrests of LDP assembly members triggered public outrage, led to the chamber’s dissolution, and cost the LDP its majority to the Socialist Party. After that scandal, officials moved election dates from April into June or July, often aligning them with Upper House contests.
**Postwar results in Tokyo have often foreshadowed national shifts.**
In 1989, the LDP lost seats amid domestic scandals while the Socialist Party made gains. The Democratic Party’s decisive victory in the 2009 assembly election preceded its national rise, only for the LDP to reclaim dominance in 2013. In 2017, the independent, Governor Yuriko Koike–backed Tomin First Party challenged established groups, signaling growing voter openness to nontraditional options.
**This year, a newly formed regional party is fielding 42 candidates, intensifying competition for independent votes and complicating traditional party strategies.**
The emergence of such groupings reflects Tokyo’s fluid political landscape and underscores how local issues and candidate brand can outweigh party affiliation.
**A slush fund controversy involving the Liberal Democratic Party has become a focal point for voter sentiment.**
LDP candidates have largely sidestepped the issue in street speeches, and some members are running as independents without clarifying their ties to the alleged illicit funding. The Constitutional Democratic Party centers its campaign on these allegations: leader Yoshihiko Noda accuses the LDP of reviving old funding tactics and vows to challenge ruling party malpractices vigorously.
**The Japan Restoration Party is also active in this election, promoting free high school tuition and targeted cuts in social insurance premiums totaling one trillion yen.**
Co-leader Maehara Seiji emphasizes the party’s cooperation with the ruling coalition to fulfill campaign pledges, including discussions with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on social security reform and the possible abolition of the provisional gasoline tax in July. These proposals aim to distinguish the party amid its reduced seat count since last October’s House of Representatives election.
**In Chiyoda Ward’s single-seat contest, seven candidates vie for a position long dominated by the LDP.**
The party nominated Noriyuki Hayashi, a current ward council member, while Uchida Naoyuki, a former LDP-affiliated councilor excluded from the official ticket, runs as an independent. Incumbent Keisho Hira of the Tomin First Party, backed by Governor Koike, also seeks reelection. Hayashi emphasizes his legislative experience and ties to past LDP leadership, Uchida casts himself as an independent voice, and Hira highlights his collaboration with the governor on child-related policies. A split in conservative votes and the narrow margin by which Hira previously defeated Uchida underscore the competitive dynamics in this traditionally LDP stronghold.
### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Politics | (Record candidate surge & electoral fragmentation ↑ → Effective number of parties (ENP) ↑ → Coalition majority margin ↓ → Government‐formation time ↑ → Policy‐volatility post‐election ↑) | Prolonged coalition negotiations and narrow majorities drive heightened policy volatility after the election. |
| Politics | (Emergence of major new regional party ↑ → Seat‐vote proportionality gap ↑ → Policy‐uncertainty index deviation ↑ → Investor political‐risk premium ↑) | The new regional party’s rise will widen vote‐seat distortions, elevating policy uncertainty and increasing investors’ political‐risk premium. |
| Politics | (LDP slush fund scandal prominence ↑ → High‐profile corruption indictment count ↑ → Public‐trust in national institutions ↓ → Public‐trust in elections index ↓ → Voter turnout ↓) | Escalating corruption probes erode institutional trust and depress voter turnout in subsequent elections. |
| Politics | (Split conservative vote in Chiyoda Ward ↑ → Opposition‐seat share & checks ↑ → Legislative throughput rate ↓ → Policy‐swing magnitude after elections ↑) | A divided conservative vote bolsters opposition checks, slows legislation, and amplifies post‐election policy swings. |
| Governance & Law | (Party‐funding transparency & audit‐laws weakness ↑ → Campaign‐spending totals & donor concentration ↑ → Disinformation‐campaign volume ↑ → Media‐trust volatility index ↑) | Weak funding transparency fuels concentrated spending and disinformation surges, driving large swings in media‐trust. |
| Governance & Law | (Campaign‐finance regulation strength weakening ↓ → Vote‐buying / clientelism prevalence ↑ → Social‐trust composite swing ↓ → Protest & unrest escalation post‐election ↑) | Looser finance rules will spur clientelism, erode social trust, and heighten the risk of post‐election unrest. |
| Politics | (Electoral‐system design distortions ↑ → Electoral‐integrity global ranking ↓ → International‐reputation index ↓ → Investor political‐risk premium ↑) | Growing electoral distortions will damage integrity rankings and reputation, raising the political‐risk premium for investors. |
| Politics | (District‐drawing rules / gerrymander intensity perception ↑ → Public‐trust in elections index ↓ → Electoral‐integrity global ranking ↓ → Sovereign governance‐risk spread ↑) | Perceived gerrymandering undermines election trust and integrity rankings, widening the sovereign governance‐risk spread. |
### BOTTOM LINE
- The record 295-candidate field has driven up the effective number of parties contesting Tokyo’s assembly, squeezed coalition majorities, prolonged negotiations to form a ruling bloc, and set conditions for sharp swings in policy once a government emerges.
- The emergence of a new regional party with 42 candidates is widening the vote-to-seat proportionality gap, raising uncertainty about future local fiscal and regulatory agendas, and prompting investors to apply higher risk premiums ahead of the looming Upper House election.
- The slush-fund controversy engulfing the ruling LDP is intensifying scrutiny of party-funding practices, eroding public trust in core institutions and electoral fairness, and raising the likelihood of depressed voter turnout or protest ballots in June’s vote and beyond.
- A three-way division of conservative votes in Chiyoda Ward threatens LDP dominance, boosts opposition representation, slows the passage of ordinances and budgets through heightened legislative checks, and magnifies policy reversals in subsequent assemblies.
- Lax party-funding transparency and audit rules are allowing concentrated donor influence and surging campaign expenditures, which in turn fuel well-funded disinformation drives and produce volatile swings in trust toward both traditional and digital media outlets.
- Weak enforcement of campaign-finance regulations is enabling localized vote-buying and clientelist tactics, corroding social trust, and increasing the likelihood of post-election unrest if allegations of unfair practices come to light.
- Distortions in Tokyo’s mix of single- and multi-member districts are reducing vote-seat alignment, contributing to downgrades in global electoral-integrity rankings, tarnishing Japan’s democratic reputation, and widening the sovereign governance-risk spread in credit markets.
- Intensified debate over ward boundary drawing and perceived gerrymandering is deepening skepticism about electoral equity, triggering further declines in international integrity assessments, and driving up governance-risk premiums demanded by foreign investors.
Japan Confronts Rice Supply Strains as Rising Prices Spark Farmer Protests and Policy Debate
June 16, 2025 | Food & WaterRising rice prices and strained stockpiles have plunged Japan’s agricultural sector into debate over supply management and sustainable farming.
Rice farmers in Nagaoka, Niigata Prefecture, held a tractor march on June 14, 2025, to protest the challenging business environment for domestic producers. They dubbed the protest the Reiwa Peasant Revolt and urged the government to adopt policies that support sustainable agricultural practices and reinforce long-term production capacity, rather than focusing solely on price adjustments.
**At the rally’s conclusion, 75-year-old Yoshihide Kanno from Nagai City criticized the government’s narrow emphasis on price levels, pointing out the absence of comprehensive support measures for Japanese rice cultivation.**
Tokyo office worker Tomoko Kawaguchi joined the event to express solidarity with the farmers and affirmed her commitment to purchasing locally produced rice despite rising costs.
**Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has recognized that higher rice prices place additional strain on downstream industries, especially sake and miso brewing.**
He proposes releasing government rice stockpiles through processing contracts to ease cost pressures in those sectors. Industry representatives, including Shinya Iwata of Miyazaki Honten, warned that soaring rice costs are eroding sake production margins and jeopardizing future supply stability and consumer affordability.
**Japan’s government currently holds substantial rice reserves, and Minister Koizumi plans to allocate portions through discretionary contracts to help lower retail prices.**
This initiative forms part of a broader strategy to stabilize market supply and curb further price hikes.
**Analysts attribute the current shortage to a mismatch between government demand forecasts and actual domestic consumption.**
For the 2023 crop year, authorities estimated demand at 6.8 million tons, but actual requirements reached 7.05 million tons, resulting in a shortfall of over 200,000 tons. Despite this discrepancy, forecast methodologies for 2024 and 2025 remain fixed at approximately 6.6 to 6.7 million tons.
**The government’s forecasting model calculates projections based on national population figures and per capita rice consumption but overlooks consumption by inbound tourists.**
Before the pandemic recovery, annual tourist arrivals exceeded 36 million, and this omission has led to persistent underestimation of total rice demand. Critics have challenged the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for blaming price increases on distribution channel hoarding, arguing instead that flawed forecasting methods—particularly the neglect of tourism-driven consumption—constitute the primary problem and calling for more comprehensive data collection on inbound tourists’ food and beverage consumption.
### IMPACT ANALYSIS
**From this Development, various impacts could cascade through the system, to a lesser or greater extent, depending on the severity and criticality of the shocks.**
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Food & Water | (Government Stockpile Release Plan ↑ → Strategic grain reserve policy activation ↑ → National food-price index (real) ↓ → Staple-food basket inflation ↓) | Accelerated stockpile releases boost supply, driving down rice and overall staple-food inflation and easing cost-of-living pressures. |
| Food & Water | (Surge in Domestic Rice Prices ↑ → Fertiliser-subsidy & pricing policy pressure ↑ → Fertiliser affordability index ↑ → Staple-crop yield (tonnes/ha) ↑) | Expanded fertilizer subsidies enhance input affordability and optimal application, raising staple-crop yields per hectare. |
| Food & Water | (Reiwa Peasant Revolt Tractor Protest ↑ → Climate-smart agriculture incentive scheme expansion ↑ → CSA adoption rate ↑ → Yield-gap closure (%) ↑) | Expanded climate-smart agriculture incentives drive higher CSA adoption, narrowing the yield gap toward biological potential. |
| Food & Water | (Reiwa Peasant Revolt Tractor Protest ↑ → Irrigation-infrastructure coverage expansion ↑ → Staple-crop yield (tonnes/ha) ↑ → Food trade balance (% GDP) ↑) | Expanded irrigation infrastructure raises staple-crop yields and enables exportable surpluses, improving the food trade balance as a share of GDP. |
| Information Dynamics | (Forecasting Shortfall of 200,000 Tons ↑ → Open-data policy maturity acceleration ↑ → Information-access inequality ↓ → Public-trust index in national institutions ↑) | Accelerated open-data reforms reduce information asymmetries and rebuild public trust in national institutions. |
| Food & Water | (Threat to Sake and Miso Industries ↑ → Agricultural R&D expenditure (% agricultural GDP) ↑ → Staple-crop yield (tonnes/ha) ↑ → Agricultural GDP growth ↑) | Increased agricultural R&D funding spurs yield-enhancing innovations, boosting agricultural output and GDP growth. |
| Firms | (Government Stockpile Release Plan ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Food-loss rate in domestic supply chain ↓) | Faster supply-chain restructuring reduces lead-time deviations, cutting domestic rice supply-chain losses. |
| Food & Water | (Surge in Domestic Rice Prices ↑ → Water-allocation governance framework reform ↑ → Ground-water level change (m/year) ↓ → Aquifer depletion rate (km³/year) ↓) | Reformed water-allocation rules curb groundwater withdrawals, slowing water-table declines and reducing aquifer depletion rates. |
### BOTTOM LINE
- The government’s decision to release rice from strategic reserves through processing contracts will boost market supply, helping to temper retail rice prices and alleviate cost pressures on households and downstream food producers such as sake and miso breweries.
- Sustained upward pressure on domestic rice prices is likely to trigger expanded fertilizer‐subsidy and pricing support programs, enhancing farmers’ access to affordable inputs and driving higher staple‐crop yields per hectare over the medium term.
- The high‐visibility Reiwa Peasant Revolt tractor march has increased momentum for climate‐smart agriculture incentive schemes, which should accelerate adoption of precision irrigation, soil‐health measures, and other sustainable practices that close the gap between current and potential farm productivity.
- Farmer protests demanding water‐infrastructure improvements will prompt new investments in modernized irrigation networks, raising staple‐crop output, reducing vulnerability to drought stress, and potentially generating surpluses that improve Japan’s food trade balance.
- The discovery of a roughly 200,000‐ton underestimation in rice demand forecasts—due largely to the exclusion of tourist consumption—will drive calls for open‐data reforms, widening access to real‐time consumption and reserve data, narrowing information asymmetries, and strengthening public confidence in agriculture policy.
- Warnings from the sake and miso industries about eroding margins will spur increased public R&D spending in agriculture, promoting the development of higher‐yielding, lower‐input rice varieties and processing innovations that bolster overall agricultural output and GDP growth.
- The rollout of targeted stockpile release contracts will accelerate restructuring across the rice supply chain, standardizing packaging and logistics protocols to reduce lead‐time deviations, minimize spoilage, and cut food‐loss rates in the domestic distribution network.
- Elevated rice prices will intensify pressure to reform water‐allocation governance by tightening groundwater withdrawal quotas and incentivizing efficient irrigation technologies, thereby slowing declines in aquifer levels and supporting the long‐term sustainability of paddy production.
Monitored Intelligence for Japan - June 16, 2025
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7
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Philippines, Japan conduct joint exercise in South China Sea
Kyodo News | English | News | June 16, 2025 | South China Sea
The Philippines and Japan conducted a joint maritime exercise on June 14, 2025, in the South China Sea, a region the Philippines asserts jurisdiction over amid increasing Chinese claims. The exercise featured the Philippine Navy's guided missile frigate Miguel Malvar and Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer Takanami, taking place off the coast of Luzon's Masinloc town. A Philippine naval helicopter was involved in the exercise, which included an anti-submarine warfare drill not performed during their previous joint exercise in August.
The Maritime Cooperative Activity aims to enhance international cooperation for a free and open Indo-Pacific, according to the Philippine military. Capt. Paul Michael Hechanova, commander of the Miguel Malvar, emphasized the importance of friendship and mutual respect in promoting regional peace and security. Two Chinese naval vessels were observed nearby during the exercise, but there were no incidents or radio challenges reported. The Philippines has faced multiple incursions by Chinese ships in its exclusive economic zone earlier this year.
In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled against China's extensive claims over the South China Sea, a ruling China does not accept. The Philippines and Japan formalized their military cooperation with a Reciprocal Access Agreement in July 2024, enabling joint exercises and disaster relief efforts. Both countries have engaged in bilateral drills and participated in multilateral exercises alongside partners such as the United States and Australia.
サイバー攻撃急増で人材育成急務 イスラエル仕込みの「訓練」とは
Cyber attacks surge, urgent need for human resource development: What is Israeli "training"?
Mainichi Shimbun | Local Language | News | June 16, 2025 | Cyber Attacks and Data Loss
Cyber attacks in Japan have surged, leading to urgent calls for human resource development in cybersecurity. A recent incident in Nagoya where ransomware attacks disrupted flights and banking exemplifies the growing impact of these cyber threats. Despite this escalating crisis, there is a significant shortage of security personnel capable of countering these attacks.
At CyberGym Japan, an Israeli-owned training facility, employees from various companies are learning to respond to cyber attacks. The training includes simulated scenarios where participants experience a ransomware attack and the subsequent steps to identify and mitigate the threats. The facility emphasizes practical learning through exercises designed by an elite team, known as the "Red Team," which conducts these mock attacks.
The demand for cybersecurity training has increased dramatically, with inquiries at the Nagoya Arena rising from around 100 in 2020 to about 700 in 2023. However, despite a reported 23.8% increase in the number of cybersecurity professionals, a shortage of over 110,000 experts remains in the sector, highlighting the urgent need for skilled manpower in defending against the rising frequency of cyber threats.
Ransomware continues to be a prominent method used in cyber attacks, and in 2024, the Japanese National Police Agency reported a record 244 damages attributed to such attacks. The extent of these incidents often leads to operational disruptions for affected companies, with many spending significant amounts on investigations and recovery, further underscoring the importance of preparedness and robust cybersecurity strategies.
UN envoy says violence puts Myanmar on 'path to self-destruction'
NHK | English | News | June 13, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
The UN's special envoy for Myanmar, Julie Bishop, has expressed strong condemnation of the ongoing violence in the country, emphasizing that the situation is becoming a "crisis within a crisis." Speaking at the UN General Assembly, she highlighted that the conflict has intensified over the four years following the military takeover in 2021, exacerbated by the devastating earthquake that struck central Myanmar in March. The military government reported over 3,700 fatalities and more than 5,000 injuries from the earthquake.
In response to the disaster, the junta and pro-democracy forces had announced a temporary ceasefire to facilitate relief efforts. However, Bishop noted that this ceasefire has largely been ignored, further fueling the conflict. She warned that if the violence continues unchecked, Myanmar is heading towards self-destruction.
Bishop also raised concerns regarding the plight of the Rohingya, a Muslim minority in the Rakhine state, who are facing forced recruitment and various abuses. She called for immediate international support to address their dire circumstances.
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