Japan

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Japan Poised for Early Election as Takaichi Weighs House Dissolution

Jan. 13, 2026 | Politics

Japan’s political leadership faces a pivotal decision as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi considers dissolving the House of Representatives to coincide with the opening of the Diet session on January 23, 2026.

**Takaichi’s advisers, citing domestic and international uncertainties, have urged her to call a snap election to secure an outright LDP majority.**
She spent several days in seclusion at the official residence before embarking on high-profile diplomatic visits—meeting South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on January 13 and hosting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from January 15 to 17. Officials expect her formal announcement after the three-day Coming of Age Day holiday, with two possible schedules under discussion: issuing a public notice on January 27 for a February 8 vote, or on February 3 for a February 15 vote.

**Proceeding with dissolution before budget deliberations will delay passage of the initial fiscal 2026 budget bill, a measure critical for curbing high inflation and safeguarding people’s livelihoods.**
Opposition leaders warn that missing the fiscal-year deadline could push anti-inflation measures and social welfare programs into limbo. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saitō argues that dissolving parliament now would create a political vacuum during a key economic period, and Constitutional Democratic Party figure Yoshihiko Noda suggests the timing reflects deeper governance challenges in the administration.

**Within the ruling coalition, the election plan has generated surprise and tension.**
Many LDP members assumed dissolution would follow the April budget passage—particularly after the Democratic Party for the People signaled its willingness to cooperate—and were unsettled by the shift in Takaichi’s schedule. The Japan Innovation Party, under Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, reports insufficient public trust in the coalition and plans to oppose the move outright. LDP Policy Affairs Committee Chairman Keiji Furuya says the party is preparing for all scenarios, though roughly 30 of 289 single-member districts still lack LDP candidates and cooperation with the Innovation Party remains unsettled in about 60 districts.

**Opposition parties are mobilizing for the potential early election.**
The Constitutional Democratic Party has declared itself combat-ready for a February vote, aiming to become the largest force in the lower house and seeking collaboration with Komeito. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party for the People—having reached a December agreement with the LDP on raising the annual income ceiling and passing the fiscal 2025 budget—now indicates it cannot guarantee support if the dissolution breaches that commitment. The stage appears set for a snap general election, pending the prime minister’s forthcoming formal decision.

Protests Intensify in Iran Amid Economic Crisis and Escalating Government Crackdown

Jan. 13, 2026 | Politics

Widespread protests in Iran have erupted in response to economic hardship and mounting political tensions.

**Anti-government demonstrations began on December 28 as a severe currency crisis and surging inflation, driven largely by European and US sanctions, intensified public frustration.**
While protesters first took to the streets over rising prices and dwindling living standards, their demands have expanded to call for broader political reforms. Now in their third week, large-scale rallies continue across major cities, including Tehran.

**To suppress the protests, security forces have detained 2,638 people, among them medical personnel and seven minors.**
Human rights observers report heavy casualties: a US-based group records 116 fatalities—many victims of live ammunition or pellet guns—while Reuters tallies 490 protesters and 48 security personnel killed since the unrest began. According to medical workers in Tehran, a significant share of these deaths occurred in the capital.

**Amid the government’s crackdown, exiled former crown prince Reza Pahlavi has urged protesters to occupy city centers and launch strikes in vital sectors such as transportation and industry.**
His calls have coincided with intensifying demonstrations and growing public support for coordinated action against the government’s economic and political policies.

**On the international stage, President Donald Trump has condemned Iran’s use of force against demonstrators and affirmed his administration’s willingness to support them.**
The New York Times reports he has been briefed on potential military options against Iran, though he has not authorized any strikes. Through social media, he has reiterated his backing for the protesters and warned of possible military repercussions if Tehran escalates its crackdown.

**Responding to US statements, Iranian officials have threatened the United States and Israel against any intervention.**
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that US military and maritime facilities would become legitimate targets if attacked, stressing Iran’s right to preemptive self-defense. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the US and Israel of fomenting unrest and cautioned that any hostile action against Iran would bring negative repercussions for those countries.

**Within Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has described preserving internal order as a non-negotiable red line, indicating its readiness to use force if necessary.**
President Masoud Pezeshkian denounced US and Israeli involvement, accusing them of orchestrating chaos and even mosque attacks while affirming citizens’ right to protest. Meanwhile, Qalibaf reiterated that any US assault would prompt retaliatory strikes on American bases in Israel and across the region.

**With tensions escalating on both fronts, Trump plans to meet senior officials to consider potential responses, including military options.**
The international community remains deeply concerned about the unfolding crisis, where domestic unrest and geopolitical stakes continue to rise in tandem.

Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 14, 2026

News
Media
336

Government
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16

City/State
Releases
98

Embassy
Releases
1

Foreign
Service
Advisories
0

Academic/
Think
Tank
15

Podcasts
0

Videos
0

Social
Media
0

Business
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0

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米住宅着工・許可件数（25年10月）－着工件数（前月比）は124.6万件と市場予想の133.0万件を下回り、20年5月以来の水準

US Housing Starts and Building Permits (October 2025) – Housing Starts (MoM) at 1.246 Million, Below Market Expectation of 1.330 Million, Lowest Since May 2020

NLI Research Institute | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 14, 2026 | UndeterminedReal Estate

In October 2025, U.S. housing starts (seasonally adjusted annual rate) declined to 1.246 million, falling short of the market expectation of 1.330 million. This figure represents the lowest level of housing starts since May 2020, highlighting ongoing weakness in new construction activity. The previous month's housing starts were 1.306 million, indicating a month-on-month decrease.

Conversely, housing building permits, considered a leading indicator, slightly decreased to 1.412 million from 1.415 million in the prior month but surpassed market expectations of 1.350 million. The persistent weakness in housing starts is mainly attributed to a decline in multifamily housing units.

Supporting reports indicate that while the U.S. economy showed strong GDP growth in Q3 2025 and recent monetary policy eased slightly, the housing market remains sluggish with elevated mortgage rates dampening a quick recovery in new home construction.

日米防衛相、１６日会談へ対中抑止、アジア関与焦点

Japan-US Defense Ministers to Hold Talks on the 16th Focused on Deterring China and Engagement in Asia

Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 14, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Japan’s Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi departed for the United States on January 12, 2026, with planned stops in Hawaii and Los Angeles before meeting U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegusesu in Washington on January 16 Japan time. The talks will focus on reaffirming deterrence strategies against China’s increased military activities in the East China Sea and South China Sea, as well as discussing U.S. engagement in Asia amid the Trump administration’s emphasis on the Western Hemisphere.

Ahead of his visit, Koizumi emphasized the importance of demonstrating unshakeable Japan-U.S. unity in a speech in Komatsu City, Ishikawa Prefecture. This call for solidarity comes amid concerns triggered by recent Chinese military actions, including radar illumination incidents in December 2025 and large-scale military exercises near Taiwan.

移民の「単純労働力」と技能

Immigrant Simple Labor and Skills

Mainichi Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 14, 2026 | UndeterminedDemographics

The Technical Intern Training Program, established in 1993 and set to be abolished around 2030, currently includes over 400,000 trainees in a wide range of occupations in Japan. These trainees often endure low wages and poor working conditions that would typically be unacceptable, fostering a societal acceptance of this reality. Employers hold a dominant position, leading to abusive employment practices in some sectors, although not all workplaces treat trainees poorly.

The introduction of technical intern trainees coincided with the rise of China as a manufacturing hub, which severely impacted Japan’s regional industries. The perception developed that these industries could only survive by relying on low-wage labor, supplied by both technical interns and low-wage Japanese workers.

The issues surrounding labor conditions extend beyond just technical intern trainees, encompassing also non-regular workers and the "employment ice age" generation, who face similar challenges of insecure and low-wage employment.

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