Japan

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Local Governments Reject National Rice Coupon Initiative Amid Administrative and Economic Concerns
Dec. 9, 2025 | Governance & Law

Japan’s central government has allocated significant funds in its latest budget to help households cope with rising food prices.

**The Reiwa 7 supplemental budget sets aside 2 trillion yen for local support measures, including 400 billion yen to provide roughly 3,000 yen per person in relief.**
The government left the choice of distribution method to each municipality, suggesting either physical rice allocations or electronic rice coupons. Agriculture Minister Norikazu Suzuki has actively promoted the coupon scheme, gaining support from leaders of agricultural cooperatives.

**Despite ministerial backing, many local governments have opted out of the rice coupon initiative.**
They cite high issuance and mailing costs, administrative complexity, and concerns over their logistical capacity. Shizuoka Prefecture, Katano City, and Kitakyushu City instead favor options such as free school meal programs or direct cash payments. Officials note that after administrative deductions, the net value of a 500 yen coupon falls to about 440 yen, and additional postage and handling can push overhead above 20 percent.

**Issuing organizations—namely the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations (JA Zen-Noh) and the National Rice Retail Sales Mutual Aid Cooperative (Zenmeihan)—also face scrutiny over their ability to process large-scale orders on time.**
Municipal staff worry about managing coupon expiration dates, since all vouchers must be redeemed by the end of September 2026, which adds another layer of administrative burden.

**Inside the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Suzuki’s rice policy has drawn criticism from its agricultural faction.**
Detractors accuse him of favoring particular groups and condemn his abrupt reversal of the previous administration’s policy to increase rice production. They argue that price-support measures should remain under the jurisdiction of local governments rather than be driven by the agriculture ministry.

**A recent survey of 28 Tokyo-area municipalities found that none have committed to distributing government-recommended rice coupons funded by the Priority Support Local Allocation Tax; most are either undecided or firmly opposed.**
Localities such as Edogawa Ward point to the administrative burdens—especially the complexities of mailing and meeting expedited distribution deadlines—as key obstacles.

**Several jurisdictions also question the program’s economic impact.**
They worry that coupons valid nationwide could be redeemed outside the issuing areas, diluting any local economic stimulus. Kawasaki City has warned that the initiative risks becoming a generalized benefit rather than focused relief. In light of these concerns, municipalities including Edogawa and Nakano Wards are exploring direct cash payments as a more flexible response to escalating living costs.

**Some experts suggest redirecting a portion of the rice coupon budget toward broader regional revitalization vouchers that could cover a wider array of food items beyond rice.**
Meanwhile, Taito Ward has emerged as an outlier by launching its own rice coupon distribution at an estimated cost of 240 million yen, illustrating the diverse approaches and financial commitments at the local level.
Japan Enters Contraction as Investment and Exports Weaken in Third Quarter
Dec. 9, 2025 | Macroeconomics & Growth

Japan’s economy slipped into contraction in the third quarter of 2025, driven by broad softness in investment, exports and public spending.

**In the July–September quarter, real GDP fell 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, equivalent to a 2.3 percent annualized decline.**
The revised estimate deepens the initial forecast of a 1.8 percent annualized drop and marks the first negative growth in six quarters, coming in below median private-sector projections. Analysts attribute the downward adjustment to weaker-than-expected activity across multiple investment categories.

**Corporate capital investment declined 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter, reversing an initially reported 1.0 percent gain.**
Equipment investment swung from a 1.0 percent rise to a 0.2 percent contraction—the first drop in three quarters—and software spending growth was also trimmed. Housing investment fell 8.2 percent, less severe than the preliminary 9.4 percent decline, as tighter energy-efficiency standards and a post-rush demand slump weighed on construction.

**Private consumption edged up 0.2 percent, an improvement over the preliminary 0.1 percent gain, led by increased outlays on dining and food services.**
This marked the third straight quarter of moderate consumption growth, although overall private spending continued to face headwinds.

**Exports fell 1.2 percent, unchanged from earlier estimates, as US tariff hikes on automobiles and other goods dampened foreign sales.**
This represented the first export decline in two quarters. Revised data show private inventories subtracted 0.1 percentage point from GDP growth.

**In the public sector, government consumption growth was revised down to 0.2 percent from 0.5 percent, and public investment swung into a 1.1 percent contraction from a previously reported 0.1 percent increase.**
These downward revisions added further drag on aggregate output.

**The GDP deflator rose 3.4 percent year-on-year, up from an initial 2.8 percent, indicating stronger price pressures.**
After a quinquennial base revision, statisticians raised the quarter’s nominal GDP to about ¥665 trillion, with annualized real GDP now estimated at roughly ¥590 trillion, compared with the initial ¥561 trillion figure.

**The confirmed contraction supports Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recently announced stimulus package, the largest new spending initiative since the pandemic.**
Persistent weakness in business capital outlays and the housing sector adds complexity to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy deliberations, though officials appear poised to maintain a gradual path of interest-rate increases.

Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Dec. 10, 2025


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Philippines says China fired flares toward its patrol plane in the disputed South China Sea

Asahi Shimbun - E | English | News | Dec. 10, 2025 | South China Sea

Chinese forces fired three flares from the Chinese-occupied Subi Reef toward a Philippine fisheries bureau patrol plane conducting a routine surveillance flight in the disputed South China Sea. The flares did not interfere with the mission, and the Philippine coast guard confirmed the aircraft proceeded with its monitoring activities. The exact distance between the flares and the Philippine plane was unclear, and Chinese officials had not commented on the incident at the time.

The Philippine patrol covered multiple disputed islands, reefs, and atolls in the Spratly Islands, including Subi and Sabina shoal, noting the presence of Chinese military, coast guard, and suspected militia ships. The Philippines emphasized that the flight was conducted within its sovereign rights to monitor the marine environment, fisheries resources, and ensure the safety of Filipino fishermen in the West Philippine Sea.

Subi Reef, one of seven contested features turned into artificial island bases decades ago, is equipped with missile systems and military-grade runways, highlighting the high tensions in the region. The United States has no territorial claims but maintains a presence in the area and has pledged to defend the Philippines under mutual treaty obligations if Filipino forces face armed attacks.

The broader dispute involves multiple Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, all competing for control and access to the resource-rich South China Sea passage.

Asian shares are mixed ahead of Fed interest rate decision

Asahi Shimbun - E | English | News | Dec. 10, 2025 | UndeterminedInvestor Sentiment

Asian shares showed mixed performance as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision expected this week. U.S. futures and oil prices rose, while tensions between Japan and China added to market uncertainty. The incident involved Chinese military aircraft locking radar onto Japanese fighter jets, prompting Japan to lodge a formal protest. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.2% following revised data revealing a sharper economic contraction of 2.3% annualized in Q3, impacted by U.S. tariffs and lower public investment.

Chinese markets were also mixed, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declining 0.9% and the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.6%. China’s exports grew 5.9% in November year-on-year, surpassing $1 trillion for the year, despite a 29% drop in shipments to the U.S. South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s benchmark indices rose, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped slightly. U.S. markets ended a volatile week with modest gains; the S&P 500 moved up 0.2%, close to its October record, while the Dow and Nasdaq also recorded small advances.

Corporate earnings influenced U.S. market movements, with Ulta Beauty rising 12.7% and Victoria’s Secret up 18% following better-than-expected results. Warner Bros. Discovery increased 6.3% after Netflix announced a $72 billion cash and stock acquisition to spin off the company from Discovery Global. Netflix shares fell 2.9%, and Paramount Skydance dropped nearly 10% amid the deal.

Attention this week is focused on the Federal Reserve’s likely interest rate cut, potentially the third this year, aimed at supporting the weakening U.S. job market. Lower rates could stimulate the economy but risk exacerbating inflation, which remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Recent economic reports showed inflation at 2.8% in September, matching expectations, while consumer inflation forecasts for the coming year declined to 4.1%, the lowest since January. This could moderate inflationary pressures.

In energy and currency markets, U.S. crude oil rose slightly to $60.22 per barrel, and Brent crude increased to $63.86. The dollar weakened marginally against the yen, while the euro strengthened to $1.1659.

「配達の遅れ」ブラックフライデーから始まって今も クリスマスにおせち…荷物は増える一方だけど大丈夫?

Delivery Delays: Starting from Black Friday and Still Ongoing, From Christmas to New Year’s Meals… Packages Keep Increasing, But Is It Okay?

Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Dec. 10, 2025 | Supply Chain Issues

Sagawa Express halted parcel pickups on December 4th in parts of Honshu and Shikoku, marking the first such suspension outside of disasters, as delivery delays persist following a surge in parcel volumes since Black Friday. They also suspended delivery schedule notifications, and as of December 8th, delays continue with no clear timeline for normalization. Sagawa’s parent company, SG Holdings, reported handling 113 million parcels in November, a 3% year-over-year increase. Yamato Transport experienced similar delays on November 26th but has since recovered.

With delivery volumes expected to increase further due to year-end gifts, Christmas cakes, and traditional New Year’s dishes, both the parcel delivery industry and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism are advising customers to allow extra time for deliveries. Transport Minister Yasuyuki Kaneko emphasized monitoring the situation closely and engaging with related industries if necessary. Companies like Yamato Transport and Sagawa Express have warned customers about potential delays, especially during days with expressway traffic restrictions, and urged shipments to be sent with extra time.

The delays are attributed mainly to the surge in parcel deliveries from U.S.-origin sales events like Black Friday combined with an ongoing shortage of delivery personnel. The industry remains under pressure as it prepares for the highest demand period of the year, including year-end and New Year’s shipments, with no immediate resolution in sight.

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