Japan

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Japan Shifts Rice Policy to Boost Production Amid Rising Prices and Supply Concerns

Sept. 15, 2025 | Food & Water

Japan’s policymakers are shifting agricultural strategy to boost rice output after years of strict production limits.

**Rice prices in Japan have risen sharply following decades of the gentan policy, which capped paddy production to prevent a surplus and sustain high prices.**
In August, officials conceded that production limits were driving costs upward and decided to increase output. Despite heat and water damage during the growing season, late October and November yields in major producing regions should match normal levels. Advance payments to farmers have climbed significantly, pushing the median new rice price to about 4,500 yen per five kilograms. Brand-name varieties remain costly, and although roughly 200,000 tons of lower-priced reserved stocks will be available over the next five months, their supply will be limited.

**With mid-priced 2024-crop rice expected to run out, Japan will rely on imports—particularly from the United States—from October onward.**
Critics contend that gentan’s emphasis on price maintenance, rather than reducing costs or expanding scale, has weakened production sustainability amid falling domestic demand. By contrast, European nations with limited farmland restructured agriculture after the Uruguay Round, promoted large-scale farms, cut costs and boosted exports. In Japan, efforts to reform the rice sector have stalled under a “politics-administration-business triangle” in which the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA), supportive politicians and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries each defend vested interests.

**To stabilize supply and prices, the Cabinet approved a long-term land improvement plan on September 12 that encourages farmland consolidation and supports smart agriculture technologies in the fiscal 2026 budget.**
The plan replaces the old 30-year crop condition index with a new five-year yield indicator to reflect recent climate impacts more accurately. At an August 5 interministerial meeting, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba identified production shortages as the root cause of price surges and urged higher output.

**The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is requesting a 394.1 billion yen budget for fiscal 2026—an 18.3 percent increase—to accelerate farmland consolidation and boost productivity.**
The proposal allocates 4 billion yen for labor-saving methods such as dry-field direct seeding, 30.6 billion yen to expand the “Concentrated Support Program” for smart agriculture technology development, and 1 billion yen to breed heat-resistant, high-yield rice varieties. At the same time, the government will maintain 276 billion yen in direct payments to encourage farmers to convert land away from rice, signaling a gradual policy shift ahead of full implementation in fiscal 2027.

**Despite these measures, high subsidy restrictions make rice farming a tough entry for corporate players, driving some toward more profitable fruit trees and vegetables.**
The announced resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba also leaves successors to carry out the plan. Meanwhile, farmers are already adopting drones, unmanned tractors and improved rice strains to meet the government’s higher-output goals.

**Producers such as Mirai Agriculture in Fukushima City have expanded plantings to 16 hectares and introduced an agricultural drone for seeding, with plans to use drones for aerial monitoring next year.**
JA Iwamizawa in Hokkaido is deploying unmanned tractors and drones to reduce labor needs and expand acreage. Research organizations, including the Hokkaido Prefectural Research Organization, are racing to shorten the breeding cycle for heat-tolerant varieties to under ten years. In Miyagi Prefecture, subsidies have accelerated the adoption of dry-field direct seeding—sowing seed into dry fields without flooding—while agricultural firms in Iwate use dry-field direct seeding and early-winter sowing techniques developed by Iwate University to boost efficiency.

**To support the shift to heat-resistant varieties and guard against extreme heat damage, the Ministry plans to establish a multi-year seed rice stockpiling system.**
Since seed rice requires low-temperature, low-humidity storage to remain viable, the government will fund prefectural and cooperative demonstration experiments to identify optimal storage methods. It will also offer subsidies to attract new farmers specializing in seed rice production, extend storage life over multiple years to prevent waste and respond to sudden demand spikes. The rising popularity of the heat-tolerant, high-yield variety Niji no Kirameki has already caused seed shortages, underscoring the urgency of strengthening seed stockpiling and production infrastructure.

LDP Leadership Race Intensifies Amid Party Setbacks and Candidate Maneuvering

Sept. 15, 2025 | Politics

The Liberal Democratic Party will kick off its leadership contest on September 22 with candidate announcements and move to voting on October 4.

**Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces mounting pressure to step down after the LDP and its Komeito coalition partner lost their majorities in both chambers of the Diet during the July House of Councillors election.**
Ishiba, who has served as both party president and prime minister, has left a leadership vacuum that intensified factional maneuvering across the party.

**Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 44 and the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, officially declared his candidacy at a closed-door meeting with supporters in Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture.**
He argued that internal divisions and public anxieties demand a renewed focus on party unity. Koizumi previously ran in the 2024 leadership election, finishing third in a nine-candidate field after winning solid lawmaker backing but falling short among rank-and-file members in the runoff.

**Five contenders are now working to secure the 20 lawmaker endorsements needed to qualify for the ballot.**
Former economic security ministers Sanae Takaichi, 64, and Takayuki Kobayashi, 50, are sharpening their policy platforms—Takaichi aiming to build on her first-round lead in 2024 and Kobayashi stressing economic resilience amid rising prices. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64, is crafting a policy agenda in Tokyo, while former Foreign Minister and party secretary-general Toshimitsu Motegi, 69, has launched his bid with a focus on economic recovery and rebuilding local communities.

**Campaign activities vary by candidate.**
Koizumi has held private meetings to rally support around party cohesion and public concerns. Kobayashi has toured his hometown of Yachiyo City, Chiba Prefecture, to strengthen grassroots networks. Motegi engaged voters at a local festival in Tochigi City. Meanwhile, Takaichi and Hayashi have spent the holiday season in the MPs’ dormitory in Tokyo, refining policy proposals and lining up endorsements.

**The LDP’s weakened position after two consecutive national election setbacks has heightened internal tensions.**
Factions now split between those demanding a swift leadership change and those backing Ishiba’s continuation, and that standoff over the party’s direction and leadership legitimacy is set to shape the debate throughout the official campaign period.

Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Sept. 16, 2025

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【独自】自動車整備士、志願者が過去最低２０年で５１％減、不足深刻

Exclusive: Number of aspiring automobile mechanics hits record low, down 51% over 20 years, severe shortage looming

Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Sept. 16, 2025 | UndeterminedEmployment

The number of applicants for the automobile mechanic qualification examination in Japan reached a record low of 35,504 in fiscal 2024, marking a 51.1% decline from the peak of 72,623 in fiscal 2004. This significant drop over 20 years is attributed to factors such as population decline, harsh working conditions, and diminishing interest in cars among younger generations.

This shortage of mechanics has become serious enough to potentially impact automobile safety, leading the government and auto industry to urgently implement measures. A fiscal 2024 survey by the Japan Federation of Automotive Maintenance Promotion Associations found that 47.2% of businesses reported insufficient maintenance personnel, with some limiting the number of vehicles they accept for inspection and repair due to labor shortages.

Takayuki Nishimura, president of a car dealership in Aichi Prefecture, highlighted that automobile maintenance work is physically demanding and dirty, while incomes remain low. The survey indicates that average annual income for maintenance personnel is ¥4,257,900, with those in specialized maintenance businesses earning around ¥3,815,000 and automobile dealer maintenance staff earning about ¥5,094,300.

Two Chinese government ships enter Japan's waters off Senkaku Islands

NHK | English | News | Sept. 16, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Two Chinese government ships entered Japanese territorial waters off the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea on Sunday morning. The vessels, equipped with cannons, were located about 11 to 12 kilometers south of Minamikojima and were heading north-northwest at around 7:30 a.m. Japan Coast Guard officials reported the incursion and are monitoring the ships while warning them to leave immediately.

This marks the second confirmed entry of Chinese government vessels into Japan's waters near the Senkaku Islands this month, with a previous sighting occurring on the prior Friday. The Senkaku Islands are controlled by Japan, though both China and Taiwan claim them. The Japanese government asserts that the islands are an inherent part of its territory under history and international law, maintaining that there is no sovereignty dispute to be resolved.

2 Chinese Ships Enter Japanese Waters off Senkakus

Nippon | English | News | Sept. 16, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Two Chinese coast guard ships entered Japanese territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands in Ishigaki, Okinawa Prefecture, on Sunday, September 14, 2025. The ships attempted to approach a Japanese fishing boat operating in the area, prompting a Japan Coast Guard patrol ship to secure the fishing boat's safety and warn the Chinese vessels to leave.

This marked the first intrusion by Chinese official ships into Japanese waters off the Senkaku Islands since the previous Friday. The two Chinese Haijing ships entered Japanese waters near Minamikojima island around 7 a.m. and left by approximately 7:20 p.m. the same day. The Senkaku Islands, administered by Japan, are also claimed by China, where they are known as Diaoyu.

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