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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
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We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
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Philippines says China fired flares toward its patrol plane in the disputed South China Sea
Asahi Shimbun - E | English | News | Dec. 10, 2025 | South China Sea
Chinese forces fired three flares from the Chinese-occupied Subi Reef toward a Philippine fisheries bureau patrol plane conducting a routine surveillance flight in the disputed South China Sea. The flares did not interfere with the mission, and the Philippine coast guard confirmed the aircraft proceeded with its monitoring activities. The exact distance between the flares and the Philippine plane was unclear, and Chinese officials had not commented on the incident at the time.
The Philippine patrol covered multiple disputed islands, reefs, and atolls in the Spratly Islands, including Subi and Sabina shoal, noting the presence of Chinese military, coast guard, and suspected militia ships. The Philippines emphasized that the flight was conducted within its sovereign rights to monitor the marine environment, fisheries resources, and ensure the safety of Filipino fishermen in the West Philippine Sea.
Subi Reef, one of seven contested features turned into artificial island bases decades ago, is equipped with missile systems and military-grade runways, highlighting the high tensions in the region. The United States has no territorial claims but maintains a presence in the area and has pledged to defend the Philippines under mutual treaty obligations if Filipino forces face armed attacks.
The broader dispute involves multiple Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, all competing for control and access to the resource-rich South China Sea passage.
Asian shares are mixed ahead of Fed interest rate decision
Asahi Shimbun - E | English | News | Dec. 10, 2025 | UndeterminedInvestor Sentiment
Asian shares showed mixed performance as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision expected this week. U.S. futures and oil prices rose, while tensions between Japan and China added to market uncertainty. The incident involved Chinese military aircraft locking radar onto Japanese fighter jets, prompting Japan to lodge a formal protest. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.2% following revised data revealing a sharper economic contraction of 2.3% annualized in Q3, impacted by U.S. tariffs and lower public investment.
Chinese markets were also mixed, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declining 0.9% and the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.6%. China’s exports grew 5.9% in November year-on-year, surpassing $1 trillion for the year, despite a 29% drop in shipments to the U.S. South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s benchmark indices rose, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped slightly. U.S. markets ended a volatile week with modest gains; the S&P 500 moved up 0.2%, close to its October record, while the Dow and Nasdaq also recorded small advances.
Corporate earnings influenced U.S. market movements, with Ulta Beauty rising 12.7% and Victoria’s Secret up 18% following better-than-expected results. Warner Bros. Discovery increased 6.3% after Netflix announced a $72 billion cash and stock acquisition to spin off the company from Discovery Global. Netflix shares fell 2.9%, and Paramount Skydance dropped nearly 10% amid the deal.
Attention this week is focused on the Federal Reserve’s likely interest rate cut, potentially the third this year, aimed at supporting the weakening U.S. job market. Lower rates could stimulate the economy but risk exacerbating inflation, which remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Recent economic reports showed inflation at 2.8% in September, matching expectations, while consumer inflation forecasts for the coming year declined to 4.1%, the lowest since January. This could moderate inflationary pressures.
In energy and currency markets, U.S. crude oil rose slightly to $60.22 per barrel, and Brent crude increased to $63.86. The dollar weakened marginally against the yen, while the euro strengthened to $1.1659.
「配達の遅れ」ブラックフライデーから始まって今も クリスマスにおせち…荷物は増える一方だけど大丈夫?
Delivery Delays: Starting from Black Friday and Still Ongoing, From Christmas to New Year’s Meals… Packages Keep Increasing, But Is It Okay?
Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Dec. 10, 2025 | Supply Chain Issues
Sagawa Express halted parcel pickups on December 4th in parts of Honshu and Shikoku, marking the first such suspension outside of disasters, as delivery delays persist following a surge in parcel volumes since Black Friday. They also suspended delivery schedule notifications, and as of December 8th, delays continue with no clear timeline for normalization. Sagawa’s parent company, SG Holdings, reported handling 113 million parcels in November, a 3% year-over-year increase. Yamato Transport experienced similar delays on November 26th but has since recovered.
With delivery volumes expected to increase further due to year-end gifts, Christmas cakes, and traditional New Year’s dishes, both the parcel delivery industry and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism are advising customers to allow extra time for deliveries. Transport Minister Yasuyuki Kaneko emphasized monitoring the situation closely and engaging with related industries if necessary. Companies like Yamato Transport and Sagawa Express have warned customers about potential delays, especially during days with expressway traffic restrictions, and urged shipments to be sent with extra time.
The delays are attributed mainly to the surge in parcel deliveries from U.S.-origin sales events like Black Friday combined with an ongoing shortage of delivery personnel. The industry remains under pressure as it prepares for the highest demand period of the year, including year-end and New Year’s shipments, with no immediate resolution in sight.
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