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Japan
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Keidanren Issues 2026 Guidelines Calling for Standardized Base Pay Increases in Spring Wage Negotiations
Jan. 22, 2026 | FirmsJapan’s leading business federation Keidanren has issued its 2026 spring labor-management negotiation guidelines, urging companies to adopt base pay increases as the standard approach to wage growth.
**The guidelines shift from the 2025 report’s suggestion to merely consider base pay raises, recommending instead that firms take a medium- to long-term perspective on wage growth to secure positive real wages amid rising prices and interest rates.**
Chair Hitoshi Nagasawa stressed that raising workers’ wages will strengthen the Japanese economy, even as US tariffs and strained relations with China create external challenges. Keidanren pledges to promote wage increases, including base-up adjustments, provided no major crisis emerges, and emphasizes that companies can differentiate pay hikes according to job roles and individual contributions.
**In 2025 spring negotiations, large companies achieved an average wage increase of 5.39 percent, and Keidanren expects comparable or higher gains in 2026.**
Yet real wages have fallen for eleven consecutive months through November 2025, showing that nominal wage gains have not kept pace with inflation. Companies and government alike will need to pursue substantial pay rises alongside measures to curb price inflation.
**Recognizing that small and medium-sized enterprises employ roughly seventy percent of Japan’s workforce, the guidelines call for concrete steps to sustain wage growth in these firms.**
Keidanren urges large companies to support their SME suppliers through fair price negotiations and to assist them in personnel management and digitalization efforts, ensuring costs can pass through the supply chain.
Nagasawa expressed concern that cost pass-through remains inadequately implemented, and he urged companies to establish proper mechanisms to maintain momentum in wage increases and support economic stability.
**The 2026 spring labor offensive begins on January 27 with a meeting between Keidanren and Rengo chairmen.**
Keidanren notes that average wage increases at large firms have risen from 3.99 percent in 2023 to 5.58 percent in 2024 and 5.39 percent in 2025, even as real wages declined by 2.8 percent year-on-year in November 2025. This gap reflects the ongoing mismatch between wage growth and inflation.
**Aligning with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s call for a third consecutive year of around five percent wage hikes, Keidanren reaffirms its role in sustaining this momentum.**
While large companies have led substantial increases, SMEs have recorded average hikes of around four percent and now face signs of “wage-increase fatigue” as labor costs rise.
**To reverse the decline in real wages, the guidelines urge large firms to engage in good-faith price negotiations with SME contractors and reference the newly enacted Toritsugi Act, which mandates proper subcontracting transactions and prohibits unilateral price setting without consultation.**
Keidanren views these measures as essential to improving the business environment for SMEs and stabilizing overall wage growth around five percent.
**In its January 20, 2026 guidelines, Keidanren committed to leading this year’s spring wage negotiations in line with the Japanese Trade Union Confederation’s target of at least five percent increases.**
The federation also proposed weighting pay hikes more heavily toward individual contributions, providing fixed-amount payments to all workers, and granting larger increases to younger employees.
Heavy Snowfall Disrupts Transportation and Power in Japan’s Sea of Japan Coastal Regions
Jan. 22, 2026 | Transportation & LogisticsStrong cold air flowing across Japan is set to drive heavy snowfall along the Sea of Japan coast from the northern to western regions through late January 2026.
**The Japan Meteorological Agency projects that this strong cold air will persist until around January 25, 2026, producing heavy snow primarily along the Sea of Japan coast.**
Beginning January 22, snowfall will intensify in the Hokuriku and San’in areas, and even locations on the Pacific side that rarely see snow may record significant accumulations.
Above eastern Japan, temperatures at roughly 5,000 meters may fall below –40 °C, while western Japan could see readings below –12 °C at about 1,500 meters, creating conditions that support heavy snowfall in lowland coastal zones.
**Snowfall rates have already reached as much as 24 centimeters in six hours in some areas.**
Forecasts through Friday morning call for total accumulations up to 100 centimeters in Hokuriku and Niigata Prefecture, with 30 to 70 centimeters expected across Tohoku, Kinki, Hokkaido, Tokai, and Chugoku. In addition, bands of heavy snow clouds tied to the Japan Sea polar air mass convergence zone may extend snowfall into typically clear flatlands and Pacific coast areas.
**Heavy snow may disrupt road networks and force traffic closures to prevent vehicle stranding.**
Overhead power lines could suffer outages from snow loading, and mountainous terrain faces elevated avalanche hazards. Starting January 22, authorities plan preventive closures on several expressway sections in Gifu Prefecture and neighboring areas, including the Meishin Expressway between Ritto Konan (Shiga) and Ichinomiya (Aichi), the Tokai-Kanjo Expressway from Yoro to Minoseki (both in Gifu), and the Hokuriku Expressway between Maibara (Shiga) and Tsuruga (Fukui). Some national routes may also close depending on snowfall severity.
**Officials from the Chubu Regional Development Bureau and the Nagoya Local Meteorological Observatory strongly urge the public to avoid nonessential travel, secure necessary supplies, and consider rescheduling plans as conditions warrant.**
Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 23, 2026
News
Media
386
Government
Releases
55
City/State
Releases
128
Embassy
Releases
1
Foreign
Service
Advisories
0
Service
Advisories
0
Academic/
Think
Tank
19
Think
Tank
19
Podcasts
0
Videos
0
Social
Media
0
Business
Releases
1
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The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
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We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
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9
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3
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6
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7
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4
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17
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3
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2
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4
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尖閣周辺に中国船 ６９日連続
Chinese ships near the Senkaku Islands for 69 consecutive days
Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
On January 22, 2026, a Japan Coast Guard patrol vessel observed a China Coast Guard ship sailing in the contiguous zone outside the territorial sea around the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture. This marks the 69th consecutive day that a Chinese vessel has been present near the Senkaku area. The Chinese ship was reported to be equipped with a machine cannon.
The Japan Coast Guard patrol vessel issued a warning to the Chinese ship, instructing it not to approach the territorial sea around the Senkaku Islands. The continuous presence of Chinese ships in this area indicates ongoing maritime tensions near the disputed islands.
Tourist attraction turns tragic after chopper crash inside Mt. Aso crater in Kyushu
The Mainichi | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Accidents
A sightseeing helicopter crashed on January 20, 2026, inside the main crater of Mount Nakadake, part of Mount Aso in Kumamoto Prefecture, a popular tourist destination in Japan. Mount Aso is known for helicopter tours that offer close-up views of its craters, attracting many foreign visitors, with about 1.18 million inbound tourists visiting Aso-Kuju National Park in 2024, making it Japan’s second most visited national park.
Despite the volcano's active status, with an eruption alert level of 1 and generally low volcanic activity, manned helicopter flights are regularly allowed in the area as long as weather conditions are favorable. Drones and unmanned aircraft are banned within a 1-kilometer radius of Mount Nakadake’s craters to avoid difficult recoveries after crashes. The crashed helicopter was found on the northern slope of the first crater, with ongoing rescue efforts monitoring volcanic gas levels.
Local authorities expressed surprise over the accident as flying around the crater was not previously considered dangerous. Decisions on how to respond to the crash have not yet been made. The incident raises questions about the safety protocols surrounding aerial tours above active volcanic sites.
Japan to Refuel S. Korean Air Force Jets at Naha Air Base
Nippon | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
On January 28, Japan's Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF) will provide refueling support to 10 South Korean Air Force planes at the Naha Air Base in Okinawa. This marks the first time the ASDF has offered such support to South Korean military aircraft.
The refueling had originally been scheduled for November but was canceled after South Korea’s Black Eagles aerobatic team flew around Takeshima islets, a territory disputed between the two countries. The Black Eagles need the refueling mainly due to the flight range required for their participation in an international defense industry exhibition in Saudi Arabia in early February.
Additionally, on the same day, the ASDF's Blue Impulse aerobatic team will engage in an exchange of opinions on exhibition flights with South Korean counterparts.
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