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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
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Crane hits train in Thailand, killing at least 32
NHK | English | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | Accidents
At least 32 people have died and more than 60 others injured after a construction crane fell onto a passenger train in Thailand. The accident took place on Wednesday morning in Nakhon Ratchasima province, in the northeast part of the country. The train, which was traveling from Bangkok, had around 200 passengers on board at the time.
Firefighters responded to a blaze caused by the train derailment. Authorities confirmed that all those killed or injured are Thai nationals. The crane was part of ongoing work on an elevated high-speed railway line, a joint project involving China. However, a spokesperson from Beijing's foreign ministry noted that the specific section where the incident occurred is reportedly being constructed by a Thai company.
An official investigation has been launched to determine the cause of the crane collapse.
貸出・マネタリー統計(25年12月)~銀行貸出の急拡大が続く一方、日銀の資金供給量は減少加速
Lending and Monetary Statistics (December 2025) – While Bank Lending Continues to Rapidly Expand, the Bank of Japan's Fund Supply Volume Accelerates Its Decline
NLI Research Institute | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 16, 2026 | UndeterminedFinancial System Problems
Bank lending in December 2025 increased by 4.81% year-on-year, with a notable expansion among city banks. This growth appears driven by funding demand related to mergers and acquisitions, real estate transactions, and working capital needs resulting from rising costs.
Concurrently, the Bank of Japan’s monetary base has been contracting for seven consecutive months, with an accelerated pace of decline following the normalization of monetary policy. The overall volume of funds supplied by the Bank of Japan has decreased.
Money stock growth has slowed slightly, although there is a noticeable shift in the composition of funds. Depositors are moving money away from cash and ordinary deposits toward time deposits and certain risk assets.
【論考】令和8年度税制改正大綱で「103万円の壁」の引上げの効果はどうなるか
An Analysis of the Effects of Raising the 1.03 Million Yen Threshold in the 2026 Tax Reform Outline
Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research | Local Language | AcademicThink | Jan. 16, 2026 | Regulation
The 2026 tax reform outline, decided on December 26, 2025, raises the income tax basic deduction and employment income deduction, effectively increasing the minimum taxable threshold from 1.60 million yen to 1.78 million yen. This adjustment is aimed at extending tax relief benefits beyond low-income households to middle- and high-income earners. Specific increases include a 40,000 yen rise in both deductions, with additional increments for certain income brackets, particularly benefiting those with pre-tax salaries up to 6.65 million yen. No changes were made to the basic deduction for individual resident tax, but the expanded employment income deduction applies to it.
Micro-simulation analysis using data from the 2023 Japanese Household Panel Survey (JHPS2023) and the National Tax Agency’s Sample Survey of Declared Income Tax was conducted to assess the reform’s impact on households. The simulation shows that tax reductions vary by income; for example, a person earning 2 million yen annually sees a tax cut of about 9,000 yen, whereas someone earning 6 million yen receives a cut near 37,000 yen. Dual-earner households benefit more compared to single-earner households with similar total incomes due to the individual-level nature of income tax. Higher-income classes generally have more taxpayers per household, amplifying tax savings at the household level.
The total estimated revenue loss from the reform is approximately 747.1 billion yen, closely aligning with the government’s projection of 749.4 billion yen. Notably, over half (56%) of this revenue loss occurs within the highest income groups (Classes VIII to X), highlighting that while the reform is intended to aid low- and middle-income households, significant benefits also accrue to higher-income households. This outcome exposes a limitation of the individual-level income tax system where expanded deductions for middle-income earners translate into substantial relief for high-income households as well.
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