Japan

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Japan Poised for Early Election as Takaichi Weighs House Dissolution

Jan. 13, 2026 | Politics

Japan’s political leadership faces a pivotal decision as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi considers dissolving the House of Representatives to coincide with the opening of the Diet session on January 23, 2026.

**Takaichi’s advisers, citing domestic and international uncertainties, have urged her to call a snap election to secure an outright LDP majority.**
She spent several days in seclusion at the official residence before embarking on high-profile diplomatic visits—meeting South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on January 13 and hosting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from January 15 to 17. Officials expect her formal announcement after the three-day Coming of Age Day holiday, with two possible schedules under discussion: issuing a public notice on January 27 for a February 8 vote, or on February 3 for a February 15 vote.

**Proceeding with dissolution before budget deliberations will delay passage of the initial fiscal 2026 budget bill, a measure critical for curbing high inflation and safeguarding people’s livelihoods.**
Opposition leaders warn that missing the fiscal-year deadline could push anti-inflation measures and social welfare programs into limbo. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saitō argues that dissolving parliament now would create a political vacuum during a key economic period, and Constitutional Democratic Party figure Yoshihiko Noda suggests the timing reflects deeper governance challenges in the administration.

**Within the ruling coalition, the election plan has generated surprise and tension.**
Many LDP members assumed dissolution would follow the April budget passage—particularly after the Democratic Party for the People signaled its willingness to cooperate—and were unsettled by the shift in Takaichi’s schedule. The Japan Innovation Party, under Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, reports insufficient public trust in the coalition and plans to oppose the move outright. LDP Policy Affairs Committee Chairman Keiji Furuya says the party is preparing for all scenarios, though roughly 30 of 289 single-member districts still lack LDP candidates and cooperation with the Innovation Party remains unsettled in about 60 districts.

**Opposition parties are mobilizing for the potential early election.**
The Constitutional Democratic Party has declared itself combat-ready for a February vote, aiming to become the largest force in the lower house and seeking collaboration with Komeito. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party for the People—having reached a December agreement with the LDP on raising the annual income ceiling and passing the fiscal 2025 budget—now indicates it cannot guarantee support if the dissolution breaches that commitment. The stage appears set for a snap general election, pending the prime minister’s forthcoming formal decision.

Protests Intensify in Iran Amid Economic Crisis and Escalating Government Crackdown

Jan. 13, 2026 | Politics

Widespread protests in Iran have erupted in response to economic hardship and mounting political tensions.

**Anti-government demonstrations began on December 28 as a severe currency crisis and surging inflation, driven largely by European and US sanctions, intensified public frustration.**
While protesters first took to the streets over rising prices and dwindling living standards, their demands have expanded to call for broader political reforms. Now in their third week, large-scale rallies continue across major cities, including Tehran.

**To suppress the protests, security forces have detained 2,638 people, among them medical personnel and seven minors.**
Human rights observers report heavy casualties: a US-based group records 116 fatalities—many victims of live ammunition or pellet guns—while Reuters tallies 490 protesters and 48 security personnel killed since the unrest began. According to medical workers in Tehran, a significant share of these deaths occurred in the capital.

**Amid the government’s crackdown, exiled former crown prince Reza Pahlavi has urged protesters to occupy city centers and launch strikes in vital sectors such as transportation and industry.**
His calls have coincided with intensifying demonstrations and growing public support for coordinated action against the government’s economic and political policies.

**On the international stage, President Donald Trump has condemned Iran’s use of force against demonstrators and affirmed his administration’s willingness to support them.**
The New York Times reports he has been briefed on potential military options against Iran, though he has not authorized any strikes. Through social media, he has reiterated his backing for the protesters and warned of possible military repercussions if Tehran escalates its crackdown.

**Responding to US statements, Iranian officials have threatened the United States and Israel against any intervention.**
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that US military and maritime facilities would become legitimate targets if attacked, stressing Iran’s right to preemptive self-defense. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the US and Israel of fomenting unrest and cautioned that any hostile action against Iran would bring negative repercussions for those countries.

**Within Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has described preserving internal order as a non-negotiable red line, indicating its readiness to use force if necessary.**
President Masoud Pezeshkian denounced US and Israeli involvement, accusing them of orchestrating chaos and even mosque attacks while affirming citizens’ right to protest. Meanwhile, Qalibaf reiterated that any US assault would prompt retaliatory strikes on American bases in Israel and across the region.

**With tensions escalating on both fronts, Trump plans to meet senior officials to consider potential responses, including military options.**
The international community remains deeply concerned about the unfolding crisis, where domestic unrest and geopolitical stakes continue to rise in tandem.

Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 14, 2026

News
Media
336

Government
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16

City/State
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98

Embassy
Releases
1

Foreign
Service
Advisories
0

Academic/
Think
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15

Podcasts
0

Videos
0

Social
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0

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0

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Trump vows 25% tariff on goods from Iran 'business’ partners

Japan Times | English | News | Jan. 14, 2026 | Regulation

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from countries conducting business with Iran. This tariff is intended to increase pressure on the Iranian government amid widespread protests in Tehran. The tariff was stated to be "effective immediately," though no detailed information was provided regarding its implementation or scope.

The new duty could affect key U.S. trading relationships worldwide, as Iran's business partners include neighboring states and major economies such as India, Turkey, and China. Trump emphasized that any country engaging in trade with Iran would face this tariff on all business dealings with the United States, underscoring the finality of the order.

エアバス２５年納入数４％増７９３機、７年連続首位か

Airbus delivers 793 aircraft, a 4% increase over 25 years, potentially leading the market for 7 consecutive years

Tokyo Shimbun | Local Language | News | Jan. 14, 2026 | UndeterminedOperating Results

In 2025, Airbus delivered a total of 793 commercial aircraft, marking a 4% increase compared to the previous year. Despite facing challenges from quality issues in a flagship model, Airbus outperformed its main competitor Boeing, which delivered 537 aircraft in the first 11 months of 2025. This performance likely secured Airbus's position as the market leader for the seventh consecutive year.

The Airbus A320 family was the primary contributor, representing nearly 80% of total deliveries with 607 aircraft, slightly up from the prior year. Deliveries of the A220 family and other models also rose, while the A350 family deliveries remained steady at 57 aircraft. Net orders, after cancellations, increased by about 8% to 889 aircraft, which Airbus stated reflects strong market demand.

Japan to Convene Ordinary Diet Session Jan. 23

Nippon | English | News | Jan. 14, 2026 | UndeterminedPolitics and Elections

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara announced that the ordinary session of the Diet will begin on January 23, 2026. This notification was made during the steering committee meetings of both chambers of the Diet.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who also leads the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is reportedly considering dissolving the House of Representatives at the start of the session to call a general election. If the Lower House is dissolved, discussions on the fiscal 2026 draft budget would be delayed until a special session following the election, potentially preventing the budget's approval before the end of fiscal 2025 on March 31.

During the steering committee meetings, the LDP and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, did not provide opposition parties with a schedule for the remaining days of the ordinary session, including the timing of the prime minister's policy address.

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