South Korea

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

North Korea Demands Apology Amid Escalating Drone Incursion Dispute
Jan. 15, 2026 | Geopolitics & Defense

Tensions between North and South Korea have escalated following allegations of unauthorized drone flights and a subsequent demand for an apology from Pyongyang.

**Kim Yo-jong, deputy head of the North Korean Workers’ Party and sister of leader Kim Jong-un, rejected South Korea’s overtures for renewed communication after accusing Seoul of sending unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into North Korean airspace.**
She dismissed any hopes for improved inter-Korean relations as a “pipe dream and delusion,” described the South Korean government’s response as “pitiful,” and warned that further provocations would trigger consequences far more severe than mere verbal threats or proportional retaliation.

**North Korea claims that on January 4, a surveillance-equipped drone violated its airspace over Ganghwa-gun, Incheon, representing a serious breach of sovereignty.**
Pyongyang first announced the incident on January 10 through the Korean Central News Agency, demanding a formal acknowledgment and apology from Seoul. Kim Yo-jong reiterated that any repeat incursions would exact an “unbearable price,” insisting her warning was not idle rhetoric.

**South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense denies owning or deploying the drone and has launched a joint military-police investigation to trace its origin, even considering that civilian operators, rather than the military, could be responsible.**
Unification Minister Chung Dong-young said Seoul remains open to dialogue once inquiries conclude and North Korea responds. He criticized Pyongyang’s choice to air its accusations via state media instead of through established inter-Korean channels, calling that approach “unnatural and abnormal.” Chung added that South Korea might issue an official apology for drone deployments in 2024 under the previous administration—an option now under legal review—and noted that the investigation’s findings will guide any further actions, echoing past expressions of regret after the 2020 killing of a South Korean government employee in the Yellow Sea.
Pastor Jeon Kwang-hoon Arrested for Alleged Role in Violent Courthouse Riot
Jan. 15, 2026 | Non-Interstate Conflict & Security

Conservative pastor Jeon Kwang-hoon was arrested in connection with a riot that erupted outside a Seoul courthouse following the extension of former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s detention.

**On January 14, 2026, the Seoul Western District Court ordered Jeon’s arrest, citing concerns that he might destroy evidence or flee after his arraignment.**
The warrant accuses him of participating in a courthouse riot orchestrated by supporters of ex-President Yoon. Police detained Jeon at the station while the court considers his case, with a ruling on the warrant expected by Tuesday night.

**The riot broke out on January 19, 2025, after the court extended Yoon’s detention over his December 2024 martial law declaration.**
As protesters gathered outside the courthouse, clashes with law enforcement turned violent. Prosecutors contend that Jeon incited the crowd by urging them to exercise their right of resistance, effectively promoting violent action against police and judicial proceedings.

**By December 2025, authorities had indicted 141 individuals for their roles in the riot.**
Prosecutors allege that Jeon leveraged his position as pastor of Seoul’s Sarang Jeil Church to organize and mobilize demonstrators, coordinating actions and broadcasting calls for resistance through public speeches, private communications, and social media posts.

**At a January 13, 2026 hearing, Jeon denied all charges, calling the arrest politically motivated and accusing the presidential secretary for civil affairs of orchestrating the timing amid the shift from a right-wing to a left-wing administration.**
His defense maintains that his remarks qualify as protected political expression rather than criminal incitement.

**Jeon’s recent arrest follows earlier detentions in 2017 and 2020 on allegations of illegal election campaigning.**
In those cases, prosecutors claimed he violated election laws by mobilizing church members and organizing rallies during campaign periods, a history that the court cited when assessing his risk of flight and potential evidence destruction.

Monitored Intelligence for South Korea - Jan. 15, 2026


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Gov't begins foreign exchange inspections of more than 1,100 exporters

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 15, 2026 | Regulation

The South Korean government has launched special foreign exchange inspections targeting over 1,100 exporters to combat illegal currency transactions amid a weakening won. These inspections focus on exporters who keep dollar earnings overseas or use them to repay foreign debts instead of repatriating the funds to Korea. The Korea Customs Service (KCS) finalized the plan following a meeting at the government complex in Daejeon, with exchange rate stabilization marked as a core objective for 2026.

The KCS is inspecting 1,138 companies this year, including 62 large firms, 424 midsize companies, and 652 small- and medium-sized enterprises, marking a tenfold increase in the number of inspections compared to 2025. Targeted companies include those with over $50 million in trade over the past five years or cases showing substantial discrepancies between reported exports and imports or trade payments processed by banks. The KCS reported a $294.8 billion gap between customs-reported trade values and bank-handled payments from January to November 2025, the largest in five years.

Customs officials suspect some companies delay collecting trade payments to profit from foreign exchange fluctuations, potentially engage in unreported investments, debt repayments, or slush fund creation. A 2025 inspection found 97% of examined companies involved in illegal transactions totaling 2.2 trillion won ($1.5 billion). The KCS emphasized that delayed trade payments reduce domestic dollar liquidity, with only about 40% of $1.18 trillion in foreign currency earned from January to November 2025 coming from trade payments.

Authorities plan to strictly enforce rules ensuring foreign currency earnings are brought into Korea, pursuing criminal investigations in cases involving large or unexplained uncollected export payments. Despite concerns that the inspections could hinder business activity, KCS officials assured investigations would target only clear violations to avoid disrupting legitimate trade.

Buyout firm The Sylvan Group to invest $300m in S Korea with SK Innovation

Deal Street Asia | English | News | Jan. 15, 2026 | UndeterminedMergers & Acquisitions

Singapore-based private equity firm The Sylvan Group, backed by South Korea’s Hyundai Family, is partnering with SK Innovation to invest approximately $300 million in South Korea's hydrogen mobility sector. The investment will be channelled through SK Hyverse, a hydrogen mobility business planning to establish 29 liquefied hydrogen refuelling hubs nationwide by 2029. These hubs aim to support over 6,000 hydrogen-powered buses and will be strategically located near major bus depots to stimulate demand and improve fleet utilisation.

The capital deployment will occur in phases as the refuelling network expands. Sylvan’s co-founder and CEO Scott Jeun described the deal as a buyout-style partnership to jointly manage and grow the hydrogen mobility business, aligning with Sylvan’s focus on sustainability-driven investments that combine operational execution and capital. South Korea is the initial launch market, with plans to potentially expand to other Asian countries after proving scalability and operating performance.

SK Innovation will contribute expertise throughout the hydrogen value chain, including production, liquefaction, and downstream applications. The hydrogen supply for the bus network will come from long-term agreements sourced from SK’s liquefied hydrogen facilities in Incheon, aiming to ensure stable and reliable fuel availability for fleet operators. Sylvan, founded in 2019 by Hyundai family member Kyungsun Chung and Scott Jeun, specializes in buyout investments across Asia with a sustainability emphasis.

Lee seeks to use cooperation with China, Russia as catalyst for inter-Korean breakthrough

Hankyoreh - E | English | News | Jan. 15, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

President Lee Jae Myung has proposed four major inter-Korean and international cooperation projects that emphasize multilateral collaboration involving China and Russia, aiming to catalyze a breakthrough in inter-Korean relations and shift the Northeast Asia regional order from conflict to cooperation. Key initiatives include a high-speed railway linking Seoul, Pyongyang, and Beijing, building upon previous agreements from 2018 and expanding to include China to strengthen cooperation among the three capitals.

The second initiative focuses on health care cooperation, seeking to create an international trust fund to support infectious disease response and modernization of county-level hospitals in North Korea. This humanitarian effort aligns with Kim Jong-un’s declared “public health revolution” starting in 2025 and could circumvent sanctions due to its nature.

The third project involves developing the Wonsan-Kalma “peace tourism” zone, a critical national project for Kim Jong-un aimed at attracting tourists to revive the resort area, which currently suffers from low international visitation and debt. This effort will proceed in phases, targeting ethnic Koreans abroad and tourists from South Korea and China.

The fourth initiative centers on revitalizing the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI), a multilateral cooperation framework including South Korea, China, Russia, and Mongolia, with indirect North Korean involvement. Lee seeks China’s cooperation in mediating this effort, which includes recent cross-border infrastructure developments by North Korea and Russia. This marks a strategic attempt to improve regional cooperation and constructive change in South Korea-Russia relations despite geopolitical tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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