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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Wildfire erupts in Gwangyang, prompting evacuation order
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Natural Disasters
A wildfire broke out on January 21, 2026, in the Mount Baegun area of Gwangyang, South Jeolla, leading fire authorities to escalate their response and issue evacuation orders for nearby residents. The fire was fueled by dry weather and strong gusty winds, with wind speeds averaging 3.6 meters per second at the time of reporting.
Forestry and fire officials deployed 19 helicopters and 31 fire engines to combat the blaze. Despite these efforts, dry conditions and sustained winds continued to challenge firefighting operations. The emergency response level was raised from Level 1 to Level 2 at 4:31 p.m., which applies when a wildfire is expected to impact 50 to 100 hectares and is forecasted to be controlled within 48 hours.
Residents near the affected area were instructed to evacuate to village community centers and other designated safe locations via emergency text alerts. This wildfire represents a serious incident amid ongoing dry weather conditions in the region.
Lee hints at reorienting energy policy on nuclear power, citing public support
Hankyoreh - E | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedPolitical Policy Resistance
President Lee Jae Myung publicly acknowledged “overwhelming public support” for nuclear power during a recent Cabinet meeting, signaling a potential shift from his previous preference for renewable energy policies. While he did not explicitly direct the construction of new nuclear plants, his call for “reasonable discussion free from ideology” and the collection of public feedback suggests a possible tacit approval for expanding nuclear energy.
Previously, Lee had emphasized the rapid supply benefits of renewable energy, citing concerns that nuclear plants take 15 years to build and may not meet immediate energy demands. However, industry pressures, particularly from sectors like AI and semiconductors that require large electricity supplies, appear to have influenced this change. Comments from SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son highlighting energy as a critical bottleneck in Korea’s AI industry were noted as a potential turning point.
Public opinion polls have shown strong support for nuclear power expansion, with a recent Gallup Korea survey indicating 54% of respondents favor building more nuclear plants compared to 25% opposition. This shift in the political landscape, along with an upcoming local election in June, may also be driving the administration's reconsideration of nuclear energy policy.
Energy experts view President Lee’s comments as guidelines for energy policymakers working on the country’s 12th master plan for energy supply. Civic groups suggest that the renewed focus on nuclear power is partly a strategic response to electoral considerations.
정지훈 파트너 "CES 2026, AI 유틸리티 시대 서막"
Jihun Jung Partner CES 2026, Dawn of the AI Utility Era
ZD Net Korea | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption
At CES 2026, Jihun Jung, founding partner of Asia2G Capital and adjunct professor at DGIST, declared the start of the "AI utility era," marking a shift from AI's flashy performance to practical AI applications that create value. He emphasized that this year’s CES was more focused on B2B rather than consumer markets, noting key exhibition areas such as Hyundai Motor’s presence in the West Hall and humanoid robots in the North Hall, while the traditionally prominent Central Hall saw less attention. Samsung notably opted out of the main exhibition hall and held separate events instead.
Jung identified four major battlegrounds for AI development after 2025: a new computing stack, human-AI interfaces, AI’s expansion into the physical world, and enterprise adoption challenges. He highlighted the growing importance of edge semiconductors amid the transition from inference centered on companies like NVIDIA to broader AI infrastructure. He noted that NVIDIA’s large energy consumption remains problematic compared to Qualcomm and startups like HyperExcel, in which Asia2G has invested.
Regarding future computing devices, Jung pointed to glasses-type devices becoming mainstream around 2029–2030, requiring new operating system and software stacks, with Qualcomm likely providing the standard chips. He critiqued China’s weak OS and software capabilities and predicted Microsoft is at risk due to increasing cloud-based tool adoption, with Google’s ecosystem gaining more prominence among younger users.
Jung observed that AI is extending into physical realms, with autonomous vehicle technology showcased prominently, exemplified by companies such as John Deere in agriculture, Caterpillar in construction, and Brunswick in marine yachts. He noted significant growth in AI and robotics innovation award winners at CES 2025 and 2026. Tesla was described as the "Apple of the physical AI era," with its end-to-end control both a strength and a weakness, while NVIDIA compensates for lacking hardware through partnerships, notably with Hyundai Motor.
The presentation also underscored a strong Hyundai-NVIDIA collaboration, likening it to the Google-Samsung smartphone alliance. Hyundai’s recruitment of former NVIDIA executive Park Min-woo as president overseeing autonomous driving signals deepening ties. Jung downplayed concerns over China’s robotics advances, noting their robots’ limited load capacity compared to Hyundai and Tesla.
Finally, Jung forecasted that AI, semiconductors, robotics, energy, and wearables will converge and drive the metaverse revolution over the next two decades, emphasizing that this multi-technology integration, not any single innovation, will spark transformative change occurring once every 10–20 years.
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