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Intelligence for Better Decision Making

AI-Driven Memory Chip Demand Reshapes Global Semiconductor Supply and Spurs Chinese Expansion
Nov. 20, 2025 | Technology & Innovation

Recent shifts in semiconductor investment reflect the impact of AI-driven demand and strategic capacity expansions worldwide.

**AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips led Samsung and SK Hynix to reallocate production capacity from mainstream DRAM toward HBM, creating significant shortages in DRAM for mobile phones, PCs, and servers.**
As these manufacturers ramp up HBM output to support accelerating AI applications, DRAM supply constraints have emerged, pushing memory spot prices sharply higher and contributing to an industry phenomenon known as “chipflation.”

**Rising memory costs are driving up end-product prices across the tech sector.**
PC prices could climb by as much as 15% next year, while smartphone component expenditures are projected to increase by 5–7%. TrendForce analysts warn that these elevated costs may dampen consumer demand, potentially cutting smartphone production by 2% and laptop manufacturing by 2.4% in 2026. According to their estimates, low-margin, low-cost smartphones face the greatest risk.

**Major PC vendors already feel the impact.**
Dell’s memory procurement completion rate may fall to around 40%, raising the risk of delivery delays. In response, Morgan Stanley downgraded Dell’s stock outlook, and both Dell and HP suffered steep share price declines once they disclosed memory shortages and impending price hikes.

**Chinese smartphone manufacturers are encountering acute DRAM shortages and scrambling to secure supplies amid intense competition.**
In contrast, large technology companies such as Apple have largely insulated themselves by relying on long-term memory supply contracts. The scramble among Chinese OEMs has led to reduced orders for local foundries like SMIC.

**Domestic Chinese memory chipmakers are seizing these shortages to expand aggressively.**
Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) has launched government-supported investments to boost its NAND flash capacity, targeting the world’s fourth-largest producer position within two years. This push aligns with Beijing’s strategy of nurturing domestic semiconductor champions. Unlike Samsung and SK Hynix, which have signaled only modest capacity increases for DRAM and NAND, Chinese firms are pursuing more ambitious growth plans. As global memory demand continues to rise, these producers may capture additional market share. Samsung’s Xi’an NAND flash facility and SK Hynix’s Wuxi DRAM plant in China already supply substantial portions of their companies’ global output, and ongoing government subsidies and investments in domestic fabs should further strengthen China’s role in the global memory supply chain.
Samsung Accelerates 1c DRAM Production Expansion Amid Rising Global Demand
Nov. 20, 2025 | Technology & Innovation

Korean chip makers are significantly expanding their DRAM production capabilities to address growing market demand.

**Samsung Electronics will ramp up its 10-nanometer-class 6th-generation DRAM (1c DRAM) output from 60,000 wafers per month at the end of 2025 to roughly 200,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026.**
The company plans to add 80,000 wafers by mid-2026 and another 60,000 wafers in the final quarter through process conversions in existing lines and fresh investments at its Pyeongtaek Plant 4 (P4).

**This enlarged 1c DRAM capacity will account for about one-third of Samsung’s current total DRAM production, which stands at 650,000–700,000 wafers per month.**
Samsung’s commitment reflects confidence in 1c DRAM technology and aims to alleviate a tight supply not only in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) but in mainstream DRAM—where buyers have begun pre-purchasing unproduced stock to secure future supply.

**Samsung’s 1c DRAM devices will feature circuit linewidths of 11 nanometers or less and incorporate multiple layers of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.**
The goal is to mass-produce next-generation DRAM that delivers both higher performance and lower cost.

**On November 16, Samsung unveiled a broader investment plan of 450 trillion won over five years to secure memory semiconductor capacity as artificial intelligence drives demand higher.**
The company intends to scale production proactively, enabling rapid responses to market shifts.

**This investment push also targets the restoration of Samsung’s position as the world’s top DRAM supplier, a title currently held by SK hynix following Samsung’s recent HBM supply and sales setbacks.**
Samsung representatives say they are reviewing various measures to meet surging demand but have not confirmed the precise allocation of additional funds.

Monitored Intelligence for South Korea - Nov. 20, 2025


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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Chinese, Japanese diplomats differ on vision for regional order, skirt Taiwan issue

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Nov. 20, 2025 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

Chinese Ambassador Dai Bing and Japanese Ambassador Koichi Mizushima presented contrasting views on regional order at the Seoul Diplomacy Forum on November 18, 2025, avoiding direct discussion of the Taiwan issue amid heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Dai criticized what he described as a residual Cold War mentality, exclusive groups, and protectionism primarily linked to unnamed countries, implicitly referring to the United States. He emphasized China’s stance against tariff, trade, and technology wars but warned China would defend its core interests if challenged. Dai urged Korea to maintain balanced relations with both China and the U.S.

In contrast, Mizushima highlighted Japan’s commitment to alliances and international norms, advocating for a multi-layered network including the Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance and the Quad. He noted revitalized shuttle diplomacy between Korea and Japan and Korea’s expanding diplomatic outreach into Central Asia and Africa. On North Korea, Dai stressed China’s historic ties and shared interest in stability, whereas Mizushima characterized North Korea as a regional threat and emphasized denuclearization and Japan’s abduction issue, with Korea’s support.

Singapore Ambassador Wong Kai Jiun provided a middle-power perspective on managing great-power rivalry, underscoring the need for closer cooperation among smaller states as the U.S. turns inward and China advances global initiatives amid domestic challenges. He praised Korea’s pragmatic diplomacy and its role in ASEAN cooperation and global transitions. Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun, speaking through an envoy, reaffirmed Korea’s commitment to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula and the importance of restoring dialogue, regardless of the sequence of talks involving the U.S. and North Korea.

Seoul gas prices climb above $1.20 for first time in nine months

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Nov. 20, 2025 | UndeterminedEnergy Prices

Gasoline prices in Seoul have risen above 1,800 won ($1.20) per liter for the first time in nine months, reaching 1,801.28 won as of November 18, 2025. This marks the first time since February 6, 2025, that prices have exceeded this level. Nationwide, the average gasoline price was slightly lower at 1,730.27 won per liter. Diesel prices also increased, with Seoul seeing a rise to 1,709.56 won and the national average reaching 1,637 won.

The increase in domestic fuel prices has been driven by three consecutive weeks of rising international refined product prices due to approaching winter and supply instability, combined with a weaker won making imported crude more expensive. Additionally, the government’s reduction of fuel tax cuts since October—from 10 percent to 7 percent for gasoline and from 15 percent to 10 percent for diesel and LPG—has added upward pressure on prices, amounting to about 25 won per liter for gasoline and 29 won for diesel.

Industry experts expect fuel prices to continue climbing unless there is a clear reversal in global oil prices, with current trends suggesting Seoul may soon surpass this year’s peak gasoline price of 1,807.96 won recorded in late January. The Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Resources has responded by convening a petroleum market review meeting, requesting voluntary cooperation from industry players to prevent excessive price hikes.

Rising fuel costs are contributing to consumer inflation and affecting sectors such as logistics, highlighting the broader economic impact of the sustained increase in oil prices and fuel taxes in South Korea.

"잇달은 해킹 사고...민관 구분 없을 정도로 공동 대응 해야"

Repeated hacking incidents...joint response required regardless of public or private sector

ZD Net Korea | Local Language | News | Nov. 20, 2025 | Cyber Attacks and Data Loss

This year has seen multiple high-profile cybersecurity breaches impacting major corporations such as SKT, KT, and Lotte Card, alongside numerous supply-chain attacks targeting partner firms to access larger companies’ data. The country also faces ongoing sophisticated cyberattacks from state actors like China and North Korea, aimed at government institutions and economic targets. Experts emphasize the need for a comprehensive inspection of the depth and nature of these cyber threats penetrating society.

At the 7th Cybersecurity Policy Forum on November 18, panelists concurred that current responses to breaches focus too heavily on individual security personnel and superficial measures, such as appointing CISOs or temporarily increasing budgets, without addressing systemic issues. They highlighted the necessity of transforming the entire cybersecurity ecosystem, advocating for revitalizing the information security market through broad investment and structural changes.

Security operations personnel voiced concerns that government and corporate security policies are often ineffective and poorly communicated, resulting in temporary fixes rather than sustained improvements. They stressed the importance of continuous security efforts and called for ongoing cooperation among private companies, government bodies, and investigative agencies to maintain a robust information security cycle.

Panelists agreed on strengthening coordinated frameworks across the public and private sectors, emphasizing the need for seamless sharing of breach data and attacker intelligence. Current decision-making processes exclude private sector involvement in crucial deliberations on security policies. Experts proposed eliminating the distinction between public and private sectors to facilitate real-time information sharing and joint responses, highlighting progress by the National Intelligence Service in sharing investigative tools as a positive step toward integrated cybersecurity efforts.

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