South Korea

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Seoul Bus Strike Resolved After Wage Deal Restores Citywide Service
Jan. 16, 2026 | Transportation & Logistics

Seoul’s extensive bus network ground to a halt in a citywide strike triggered by stalled wage negotiations.

**The strike began at 4 a.m. on Tuesday, January 13, after talks between the Seoul City Bus Labor Union and the Seoul Bus Transport Association broke down.**
At its height, approximately 93 percent of the city’s 7,018-strong fleet lay idle, with only 562 buses operating and commuters left scrambling in a metropolis that relies heavily on public transport.

**Negotiations resumed the next day at the Seoul Regional Labor Relations Commission in Yeongdeungpo-gu, where public-interest mediators stepped in following the previous day’s impasse.**
After more than nine hours of intense discussion, negotiators reached an agreement around 11:50 p.m. on Wednesday, January 14, ending the two-day walkout and allowing services to resume at 4 a.m. on Thursday, January 15.

**Under the deal, drivers will receive a 2.9 percent base wage increase for 2026—well above the city management’s initial 0.5 percent offer but just shy of the union’s 3 percent demand.**
The agreement also phases in an extension of the retirement age, raising it from 63 to 64 in July 2026 and then to 65 in July 2027. The parties agreed to postpone discussions about incorporating regular bonuses into ordinary wages, leaving that issue on the table for future talks in light of a December 2024 Supreme Court ruling.

**During the stoppage, Seoul city authorities rolled out emergency transport measures to ease the strain on commuters.**
They extended subway operating hours, increased peak-hour train frequency, deployed empty trains to reduce platform crowding, and doubled safety personnel at major stations. The city also chartered and operated 677 shuttle buses on Tuesday and 763 on Wednesday, carrying more than 86,000 passengers along halted bus routes. These interventions cost roughly 10 billion won (about $6.8 million) per day. Once buses returned to service on Thursday morning, officials lifted all emergency provisions and reverted to normal schedules.

**The strike brought deeper structural challenges in the semi-public bus operation system into sharp relief.**
The city covers annual budget deficits estimated at around 600 billion won and could face further strain if future wage demands materialize. Critics warn that unresolved questions over ordinary wage definitions and the funding model for semi-public operations may trigger fresh disputes, especially given the municipal budget injections during the COVID-19 pandemic and their lasting impact on city finances.

**Union chairman Park Jeom-gon apologized to citizens for the disruption and expressed hope for smoother negotiations ahead, while Seoul Bus Transport Association chair Kim Jeong-hwan welcomed the resolution despite regret over the strike’s duration.**
Mayor Oh Se-hoon praised both sides for their conduct and reaffirmed the city’s commitment to strengthening labor-management trust and ensuring reliable public transportation.
North Korea Demands Apology Amid Escalating Drone Incursion Dispute
Jan. 15, 2026 | Geopolitics & Defense

Tensions between North and South Korea have escalated following allegations of unauthorized drone flights and a subsequent demand for an apology from Pyongyang.

**Kim Yo-jong, deputy head of the North Korean Workers’ Party and sister of leader Kim Jong-un, rejected South Korea’s overtures for renewed communication after accusing Seoul of sending unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into North Korean airspace.**
She dismissed any hopes for improved inter-Korean relations as a “pipe dream and delusion,” described the South Korean government’s response as “pitiful,” and warned that further provocations would trigger consequences far more severe than mere verbal threats or proportional retaliation.

**North Korea claims that on January 4, a surveillance-equipped drone violated its airspace over Ganghwa-gun, Incheon, representing a serious breach of sovereignty.**
Pyongyang first announced the incident on January 10 through the Korean Central News Agency, demanding a formal acknowledgment and apology from Seoul. Kim Yo-jong reiterated that any repeat incursions would exact an “unbearable price,” insisting her warning was not idle rhetoric.

**South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense denies owning or deploying the drone and has launched a joint military-police investigation to trace its origin, even considering that civilian operators, rather than the military, could be responsible.**
Unification Minister Chung Dong-young said Seoul remains open to dialogue once inquiries conclude and North Korea responds. He criticized Pyongyang’s choice to air its accusations via state media instead of through established inter-Korean channels, calling that approach “unnatural and abnormal.” Chung added that South Korea might issue an official apology for drone deployments in 2024 under the previous administration—an option now under legal review—and noted that the investigation’s findings will guide any further actions, echoing past expressions of regret after the 2020 killing of a South Korean government employee in the Yellow Sea.

Monitored Intelligence for South Korea - Jan. 16, 2026


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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스노우플레이크가 내다본 올해 에이전틱 AI 트렌드는?

What Snowflake Foresees as This Year’s Agentic AI Trends?

ZD Net Korea | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption

In 2026, agentic artificial intelligence (AI) is projected to advance from basic chatbots into autonomous operating systems capable of verifying and executing corporate tasks independently. Snowflake’s "AI + Data Predictions 2026" report highlights a shift away from architectures dominated by large language models (LLMs) towards systems with enhanced reasoning and execution capabilities, enabling AI to operate across entire enterprises. This evolution marks a transition from isolated AI applications to the development of enterprise-wide AI ecosystems.

Reliability in agentic AI is identified as a critical challenge, with expected adoption of feedback loops that integrate user input alongside self-verification mechanisms to enhance judgement accuracy and system stability. The emergence of specialized micro-agents handling specific tasks will precede the development of singular super-agents, with these collaborative agents forming the foundational structure of agentic AI.

Key to the widespread adoption of agentic AI are standard protocols, open-source foundation models, and operational infrastructure. A dominant protocol for agent communication is anticipated to accelerate development and reduce vendor lock-in. Furthermore, enterprise infrastructure is expected to shift focus from analytics to real-time data processing and state management, with technologies like Postgres being pivotal in managing large-scale, low-latency event and operational data streams generated by agentic AI.

In cybersecurity, agentic AI presents dual aspects: it may facilitate automated vulnerability detection and data exfiltration by attackers, while also empowering security operations centers to enhance threat responses with fewer personnel. Industry-specific applications include retail and consumer goods adopting personalized customer management and AI shopping assistants; financial services integrating AI-based analytics and risk management into decision-making; and manufacturing deploying chatbot-style AI agents to support quality inspection, equipment maintenance, and supply chain optimization.

Snowflake’s Chief Data and Analytics Officer Anahita Tafvizi emphasized that despite rapid AI innovation, many companies struggle to realize tangible outcomes. Differences in data health, governance, and organizational capabilities are expected to widen gaps in AI utilization across businesses.

석탄발전소, 5조원짜리 '휴지조각' 되나…IMF가 경고한 이유는

Will Coal Power Plants Worth 5 Trillion Won Become Worthless Paper… Why the IMF Issued a Warning

Hankyung | Local Language | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | Climate Change

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning that coal-fired power assets, including those in South Korea, could rapidly become stranded and lose economic value due to the accelerating global energy transition to renewables. According to an IMF report, up to one-third of global coal capital may become stranded if the energy shift outpaces projections, driven by improvements in the cost competitiveness of solar and wind energy, whose costs have fallen dramatically since 2010.

Coal-fired power is expected to be the first energy source phased out because of its high carbon emissions and vulnerability to decarbonization policies. In contrast, natural gas and oil may act as transitional "bridge fuels." The IMF's projections based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios suggest coal production could decline by 21% to 81% by 2050 depending on climate action intensity, with potential complete phase-out in the long term, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which dominates both coal production and imports.

South Korea faces significant risks as it recently invested 4 to 5 trillion won in new coal plants like Shinseocheon, Goseong High, Gangneung Anin, and Samcheok Blue Power between 2021 and 2025. Although these plants typically have a 30-year design life, their economic viability is threatened by the country’s commitment to phase out coal, reinforced by South Korea joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) at COP30. The government aims to retire 40 of its 61 coal plants by 2040, highlighting the increasing risk of coal assets becoming stranded.

S. Korea considers restoring pact reducing military tension with N. Korea

Yonhap | English | News | Jan. 16, 2026 | North Korea

South Korea is considering restoring a suspended military pact with North Korea aimed at reducing tensions along their border. The original agreement, signed in 2018 between then-President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, was fully suspended in 2024 due to worsening relations. According to National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac, internal discussions are ongoing, but no final decision has been made.

The discussions were highlighted during a press briefing following President Lee Jae Myung's summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Osaka on January 14, 2026. Wi confirmed that the government views restoring the pact as a basic direction in policy but emphasized that consultations remain in progress.

In relation to North Korea’s accusations that South Korea sent drones into its territory twice—once in September 2025 and again in early January 2026—the South Korean government is conducting an internal investigation. If civilians are found responsible for the drone incursions, it would likely constitute a violation of South Korean law and breach the armistice agreement, which would lead to appropriate measures and punishment.

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