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South Korea
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Kyushu Earthquake Spurs Nankai Trough Concerns
Jan. 15, 2025 | Indirect IndicatorOn January 13th, at 9:19 p.m., a significant earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 struck the Miyazaki Prefecture in Kyushu, Japan.
The epicenter was located off the coast of Hyuga Nada, at a depth of 30 kilometers. The coastal areas of Miyazaki experienced the most intense shaking, registering a maximum intensity of 5 weak, which understandably led to anxiety among residents and caused unsecured items to shift or fall.
In the aftermath, a tsunami advisory was issued for both Miyazaki and Kochi Prefectures. Consequently, tsunami waves reached heights of approximately 20 centimeters in Miyazaki and 10 centimeters in Kochi. As a precaution, authorities advised residents to avoid coastal zones to ensure their safety.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is currently investigating whether this earthquake might be connected to the potential for a larger seismic event known as the Nankai Trough Earthquake, which has historically occurred every 100 to 200 years. This inquiry follows a previous 7.1 magnitude earthquake in the region last August, after which the JMA issued a 'Nankai Trough Earthquake Temporary Information' alert.
The Great Nankai Earthquake, if it occurs, could cause catastrophic damage, with estimates of up to 230,000 fatalities and destruction of approximately 2 million structures along the Pacific coast of Honshu. Should a subsequent tsunami occur, potential casualties could rise to over 320,000. These warnings underscore the importance of preparedness despite uncertainties regarding the timing and certainty of such an event. The JMA continues to conduct assessments to better inform and prepare the public for future seismic activities.
Political Tensions Escalate in South Korea Amid Yoon's Impeachment and Arrest Operations
Jan. 15, 2025 | Indirect IndicatorPrime Minister Han Duck-soo recently addressed the National Assembly concerning the ongoing impeachment proceedings, clarifying his stance on the appointment of Constitutional Court justices.
He stated that while he had temporarily halted these appointments due to a lack of consensus between the ruling and opposition parties, the ultimate authority rests with the president. Han assured that the appointments would continue once both parties reach an agreement. Distancing himself from allegations of supporting martial law actions by President Yoon, Han emphasized his opposition and claimed he was unaware of the martial law until it was publicized by the media. Further documentation has been requested from Han and the National Assembly to elucidate their positions, including details of Han’s actions during the martial law event.
The political climate in South Korea remains tense as the National Police Agency prepares an operation to arrest President Yoon Seok-yeol starting on the 15th, mobilizing approximately 1,200 detectives for the task. While initially considering deploying special forces, concerns about potential violence led to this plan being dismissed. The police may seek assistance from the fire department for gaining access to Yoon’s residence if required. This operation is part of an investigation into allegations against Yoon, including charges of insurrection following his imposition of martial law on December 3. The impeachment proceedings have exacerbated tensions within the Presidential Security Service, marked by internal dissent primarily due to the resistance to cooperate with law enforcement.
The impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, following his brief declaration of martial law, has created significant strain in South Korea's political environment. This situation has spurred a series of investigations by both the police and the National Assembly, with the Democratic Party of Korea demanding a special counsel investigation. They cite concerns over the existing agencies' capability to manage the complexity and historical significance of Yoon's case, alongside its potential implications for national elections. Among the allegations are claims of attempts by Yoon to instigate conflict with North Korea to justify martial law, actions that some have labeled as treasonous.
The political atmosphere has been further aggravated by antigovernment protests and conspiracy theories regarding alleged anti-China strategies reportedly used by Yoon and the People Power Party as a means of strategic distraction. Observers highlight the detrimental effect on South Korea's domestic and international standing. Meanwhile, the military has resumed anti-Pyongyang broadcasts, with serious accusations surrounding former defense officials tied to Yoon's martial law schemes, adding to the complexity of the national security narrative.
In the legal arena, the impeachment trial proceedings have commenced, though President Yoon remains absent due to safety concerns associated with his arrest warrant. His legal representatives have contested aspects of the trial, raising doubts about judicial impartiality. The Constitutional Court is expected to render its decision within an established timeframe, which could lead to Yoon’s removal and a subsequent snap election or his reinstatement. Reports of divided security forces suggest potential instability in future developments.
Monitored Intelligence for South Korea - Jan. 15, 2025
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53
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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
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2
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8
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3
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15
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12
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5
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Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
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3
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1
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2
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4
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5
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1
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6
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1
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1
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1
(2nd LD) FM Cho vows to work with Japan to reduce tensions over wartime history issues
Yonhap | English | News | Jan. 15, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul reaffirmed commitment to collaborate with Japan to ease tensions from historical wartime issues. After talks with Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, Cho stressed the need for a future-oriented bilateral relationship, emphasizing the importance of addressing historical grievances regardless of circumstances. Relations have recently soured after South Korea boycotted a memorial in Japan for Korean forced labor victims, citing a failure to honor victims as requested.
In a joint press conference, Cho emphasized the importance of meaningful consultations with Japan to ensure future memorials appropriately recognize historical pain and comfort victims' families. He conveyed South Korea's concerns to Iwaya, reiterating the need to advance bilateral relations continually.
Iwaya supported Cho's views, highlighting the significance of Japan-South Korea relations and trilateral cooperation with the United States. He expressed hopes for rekindling shuttle diplomacy between their leaders as conditions improve, referencing past meetings between South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Iwaya's visit to Seoul marked the first by a Japanese foreign minister in nearly seven years and included paying respects at Seoul National Cemetery and engaging with South Korean officials.
Biden highlights trilateral partnership with South Korea and Japan as key policy achievement
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 15, 2025 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
U.S. President Joe Biden highlighted the trilateral partnership between South Korea, the United States, and Japan as a key achievement of his administration, vital for countering shared challenges, particularly North Korea. As he transitions power to Donald Trump, he underscored the importance of reinforcing alliances to address aggressive behaviors, notably from China.
The Camp David summit in August 2023 was a pivotal moment for trilateral cooperation, resulting in agreements to consult on common threats. Initiatives such as real-time sharing of North Korean missile warning data, military exercises dubbed "Freedom Edge," and the creation of a collaborative secretariat emerged from this partnership. However, concerns linger regarding the future of this cooperation under the new administration, with fears of a potential shift towards isolationism.
Biden emphasized the need to prioritize alliances over unilateral actions, asserting that America's global influence is strengthened through unity. He acknowledged ongoing security challenges in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific, reiterating the necessity of deterring North Korea amid escalating tensions. He concluded by expressing confidence in the enduring strength of alliances that will be handed to the next administration, envisioning a united America tackling global challenges.
Seoul to set up export strategies for all possible scenarios under Trump
Korea Herald | English | News | Jan. 15, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers
South Korea is crafting targeted export strategies in anticipation of shifts in US trade policy under President-elect Donald Trump. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy warns that US trade protectionism could heavily impact South Korea's exports, potentially inciting wider repercussions in major markets.
To counteract possible tariff measures against countries with trade surpluses, the ministry is developing data-driven strategies and plans to enhance information sharing with partners like Japan, the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Concerns mount for South Korean businesses that depend on the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, especially with proposed tariffs such as a 25 percent tax on goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10 percent tax on imports from China.
Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun emphasized the importance of maintaining incentives for South Korean firms under the Inflation Reduction Act, rather than the act itself. To bolster export opportunities, South Korea intends to expand its network of free trade agreements (FTAs), targeting four additional FTAs this year to increase the market access ratio to over 87 percent. The ministry also aims to expedite trade negotiations with nations like Malaysia, Thailand, Mongolia, Bangladesh, and Serbia by 2025.
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