South Korea

Hankyoreh - E | English | News | Jan. 2, 2026 | North Korea

North Korean media recently published photos showing Kim Ju-ae walking in front of her father, Kim Jong-un, during a site visit to newly completed factories in several North Korean counties. This visit was part of a series of ribbon-cutting ceremonies for 20 county-level factories scheduled to be built this year. Kim Jong-un was accompanied by his daughter Kim Ju-ae and his wife Ri Sol-ju, marking Ri's first public appearance in six months.

These images have reignited discussions about Kim Ju-ae’s potential status as Kim Jong-un's successor. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service indicated that Kim Jong-un is “in the process of finalizing a succession narrative” and has constructed a revolutionary narrative supporting her as the presumptive heir. Some observers view recent photos of Kim Ju-ae engaging publicly, including one where she shakes hands with fighter pilots and the latest one of her leading her father, as signals reinforcing her candidacy.

However, other analysts caution against reading too much into these photographs. Similar images showing Kim Ju-ae positioned ahead of or alongside Kim Jong-un have been published before, and experts note that a true successor usually does not stand in front of the supreme leader in such displays. Officials describe the photographs as more familial than indicative of a successor, suggesting no concrete evidence of an official succession plan has emerged from the visual cues so far.

During the factory openings, Kim Jong-un emphasized the importance of advancing provincial development and delivering benefits to the people, aligning with his 20×10 Regional Development Policy. The events reiterate the regime’s focus on economic and regional progress amid broader political continuity concerns.

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 2, 2026 | Regulatory Enforcement Actions

The Fair Trade Commission (FTC) imposed fines totaling 93.5 billion won ($64.8 million) on three construction firms—Daebang Construction, JungHeung Construction, and Woomi—as well as CJ Group for illegal inter-subsidiary transactions and unfair insider trading related to public land development projects. The FTC also referred the companies to the prosecution following its investigation.

Daebang Construction was fined for improperly supporting affiliated companies owned by the chairman's family by transferring ownership of public housing sites with expected high development returns. JungHeung Construction was sanctioned for providing free guarantees worth trillions of won to a company owned by a family member of the chairman.

CJ Group faced penalties for illegally injecting funds into a troubled affiliate through derivatives. Woomi, a midsized real estate developer, was fined for funneling large-scale construction projects to its affiliates, including a company owned by the chairman's family member.

38 North | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 2, 2026 | North Korea

The increasing visibility of Kim Jong Un’s daughter, Kim Ju Ae, amid uncertainties about his health, has sparked speculation about North Korea’s future leadership. While her public role is unprecedented and may hint at succession plans, historical patterns suggest caution, as previous transitions involved complex elite management, propaganda, and military demonstrations to establish legitimacy. A female successor would face notable challenges in DPRK’s patriarchal society, whereas a male heir might receive broader acceptance but still requires political and military credentials. The timing and nature of the succession process could vary, resembling either a lengthy apprenticeship like Kim Jong Il’s or a rapid ascendancy as with Kim Jong Un.

Past successions in North Korea showed distinct approaches shaped by differing domestic and international contexts. Kim Jong Il’s rise (1970s-1994) occurred during a relatively stable era that allowed gradual consolidation of power through ideological campaigns linking his legitimacy to his father Kim Il Sung. In contrast, Kim Jong Un’s succession (2008-2011) happened amid international isolation and economic challenges, with his father accelerating the transfer of power due to deteriorating health, elevating a new generation of loyal elites while sidelining old guard figures like Jang Song-thaek.

Military leadership credentials have been critical in legitimizing North Korean rulers. Kim Jong Il bypassed direct military experience by leveraging propaganda tied to his father’s legacy and instituted “military-first” policies to reinforce his regime. Kim Jong Un lacked traditional military credentials and instead “invented” military authority early on through appointments and demonstrations of force, such as the 2010 Yeonpyeong artillery strike and subsequent missile tests, to consolidate control and signal regime strength.

Current internal dynamics reveal a potential rivalry between Kim Ju Ae and Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, who holds significant party influence and is considered a viable immediate successor if Kim Jong Un dies suddenly. However, ideological norms favoring male heirs and generational transfer theories elevate Kim Ju Ae’s candidacy over Kim Yo Jong’s long-term prospects. The existence of a possible son adds complexity, as patriarchal norms could make a male successor more acceptable. Kim Jong Un himself faces the delicate task of empowering a successor without undermining his own authority, a balancing act influenced by lessons from past transitions and the risk of accelerated power shifts.

Signs of an emerging succession process may include intensified propaganda showcasing the successor’s military and political roles, reorganization of elites loyal to the heir, and policy initiatives aimed at consolidating power and addressing socio-economic and security challenges. The successor will likely continue “military-first” policies, using military demonstrations both as legitimacy tools and means to suppress dissent within the armed forces. Resistance from within the military could lead to further purges to solidify control.

Several scenarios could unfold: in the short term, a politically established figure like Kim Yo Jong might take over in the event of Kim Jong Un’s sudden incapacitation, while younger heirs remain unprepared. If a male heir emerges, patriarchal societal norms suggest the female successor’s prospects diminish. Even though the number of women in leadership roles has increased, significant political power remains unlikely for female delegates under existing structures, with conservative party factions poised to influence succession outcomes.

Understanding the historical patterns and tactical dynamics of past North Korean successions is crucial for anticipating future developments. While no succession process is predetermined, recognizing indicators such as elite reshuffling, propaganda shifts, and military activity can help policymakers prepare for potential transitions. A nuanced grasp of these factors will support more proactive and informed international responses, mitigating risks and seizing opportunities during North Korea’s eventual leadership change.