South Korea

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Korean General Elections Outcome
April 12, 2024 | Indirect Indicator

- The general elections in South Korea highlight the victories and losses of key politicians, including Lee Jun-seok, Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo, Na Kyung-won, and Rep. Kim Tae-ho.

- There is potential career jeopardy for political heavyweights like Lee Nak-yon, Won Hee-ryong, and Rep. Sim Sang-jung.

- The parliamentary elections showed mixed outcomes for politicians associated with President Yoon Suk Yeol and former presidential aides and ministers.

- The majority of pro-Yoon figures within the People Power Party (PPP) survived defeat, while half of 16 former presidential aides and three out of seven former ministers won seats.

- The newly elected 22nd National Assembly saw a decrease in the number of freshman and women elected, compared to previous polls. Out of 300 seats, only 132 freshman and 56 women were elected.

- The ruling party's defeat in the general elections increases pressure on President Yoon, who acknowledges the election result and promises to reform. This outcome signifies significant dissatisfaction with Yoon's governance and calls for change.

- The People Power Party secured a surprising victory in Busan during the 22nd National Assembly election. This victory has renewed discussion about relocating the Korea Development Bank (KDB) to Busan, a regional pledge that faces opposition from various unions and financial institutions.

- The general election aftermath has decreased emphasis on the 'Mega Seoul' project and weakened the prospect of dividing Gyeonggi Province into North and South. However, strategies like special opportunity development zones are likely to proceed, as there is no major disagreement between political parties.

- After the general election, KOSPI fell below the 2700 line and saw a slight rebound. The foreign exchange market closed the won/dollar rate at its highest in 17 months. Meanwhile, KOSDAQ closed at 858.10.

- The general election's impact on the stock market is uncertain; however, there are signs of improving corporate performance in key industries.

South Korea's imminent general election
April 10, 2024 | Indirect Indicator

- People Power Party Emergency Response Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon is intensively campaigning in Seoul on the last day before the general election. The final rally will be held at Cheonggye Plaza.

- According to the People Power Party, there are total of 122 seats at stake for the Metropolitan area in this election. There are 55 close combat areas, and 26 of them are in the metropolitan area.

- The Korea Organ Tissue Donation Agency announced that 43-year-old Jang Hee-jae saved the lives of four people through organ donation. He donated his lungs, liver, and kidneys.

- South Koreans are voting in a key election to determine the national legislature for the remaining three years of President Yoon Suk Yeol's term. The outcome is expected to keep President Yoon's People Power Party in the minority since the opposition Democratic Party holds a majority in the National Assembly.

- Gongju, South Korea, is part of a critical swing constituency playing a key role in this election. Historically, these swing constituencies have changed allegiances, making them crucial battlegrounds.

- Candidates Lee Eon-ju, Ahn Gwi-ryeong, and Jeon Hyeon-hee of the Democratic Party of Korea elicited mixed reactions online by bowing in unison during a broadcast interview. Some viewers criticized the candidates for focus on winning votes instead of discussing policies.

Monitored Intelligence for South Korea - Jan. 29, 2024


News
Media
280

Government
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7

City/State
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0

Embassy
Releases
1
Foreign
Service
Advisories
0
Academic/
Think
Tank
0


Podcasts
0


Videos
0

Social
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0

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0

Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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Despite landslide win, opposition party chief not yet home-free

Korea Herald | English | News | April 12, 2024 | Politics and Elections

The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea emerged victorious in Wednesday's general election, securing 175 seats in the National Assembly, but party leader Lee Jae-myung's path to the presidency is uncertain. Lee faces legal troubles and unfavorable public sentiment, and has potential rivals within and outside his own party. Despite the victory, the party's win may not have been a result of overwhelming popularity, as many voters cast their ballots against the ruling party rather than in support of the Democratic Party. Additionally, Lee faces potential legal consequences in an ongoing corruption case.

DP clinches resounding victory in Korea's general election

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | April 12, 2024 | Politics and Elections

The liberal Democratic Party (DP) has retained its majority in the 300-seat National Assembly, with 161 out of 254 regional constituencies as well as an anticipated 175 total wins once proportional seats are included. The PP and its affiliates are expected to secure around 109 seats. President Yoon is thus unable to block fast track bills and is rendered a lame duck for the rest of his term. The DP's parliamentary wins have also extended in the Seoul metropolitan area and Chungcheong region. Former Justice Minister Cho Kuk is expected to win 12 to 14 proportional representation seats, and the New Reform Party is expected to win three seats. Next, the National Assembly could face deadlock without the consent of the DP bloc. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo stated that the government will accept the public sentiment and work on reform tasks for the betterment of the country's future.

Opposition headed for big win

Korea Herald | English | News | April 12, 2024 | Politics and Elections

The liberal main opposition party and its allies have won a sweeping victory in South Korea's general election. The Democratic Party of Korea and its satellite Minjoo Union Party are projected to secure between 178 and 197 seats in the 300-member National Assembly, consolidating their majority for the next four years. This outcome is expected to limit President Yoon Suk Yeol's ability to pursue key initiatives over the next three years. If the opposition secures more than 151 seats, the Yoon administration and the conservative bloc would be unable to freely pursue their agenda. This could lead to a repeat of what has happened over the past two years, with the opposition-controlled Assembly passing multiple contentious bills and Yoon vetoing them. The ruling People Power Party was anticipated to secure between 85 and 105 seats, implying a significant hurdle for Yoon's administration. The election was characterized by months of mudslinging and hostile discourse, resulting in a deeply polarized political landscape. Yoon's plummeting popularity and multiple risks, including public displeasure over soaring food prices and scandals tied to the first lady and former ambassador, have further contributed to the ruling party's challenges.

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