Crisis Management for a Conflict with North Korea

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Oil falls as Ukraine signals support for framework of Russia peace deal

The Economic Times | English | News | Nov. 27, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Oil prices fell over 1% on Tuesday after Ukraine indicated potential progress in peace negotiations with Russia, influenced by U.S. diplomatic efforts. Brent crude futures dropped 1.4% to $62.48 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.5% to $57.95 per barrel, reaching their lowest levels since late October during trading. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy may soon visit the U.S. to finalize a peace agreement with President Donald Trump, according to Kyiv's national security chief Rustem Umerov. However, Russia emphasized that any deal must align with its goals, fostering uncertainty about a formal agreement.

The ongoing conflict continues to impact the situation, highlighted by a missile attack on Kyiv that killed six and disrupted essential services. Analysts warn that despite progress, significant differences remain in negotiations, which complicates reaching a final deal. A resolution could lead to the lifting of Western sanctions on Moscow’s energy exports, increasing global oil supply amid expectations of a supply glut in 2026.

Experts forecast crude oil supply growth will outpace demand next year, with Deutsche Bank predicting a surplus of at least 2 million barrels per day. A peace deal might enable Russia to meet OPEC+ production targets, boosting exports that have been limited by sanctions on Russian oil majors like Rosneft and Lukoil. Indian refiners have reduced purchases of Russian oil, causing more crude to be stored at sea. Russia is also exploring expanded oil exports to China. Meanwhile, U.S. crude stocks fell last week, though fuel inventories rose, with official stockpile data pending release.

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