Crisis Management for a Conflict with North Korea

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中国、台湾侵攻「正当化」へ外交戦 「統一への努力」に途上国の支持取り付け

China's diplomatic campaign to justify invasion of Taiwan gains support from developing countries for efforts toward unification

The Sankei News | Local Language | News | Dec. 11, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

China has been conducting a diplomatic campaign to gain international tacit acceptance of its justification for a potential military invasion of Taiwan. This strategy aims to prevent intervention by third countries, avoid sanctions, and curb China’s diplomatic isolation. The campaign has intensified amid tensions with the U.S., highlighted by China’s strong response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statement characterizing a Taiwan crisis as existential.

According to a January report by the Australian Lowy Institute, 119 of the 193 UN member states recognize the "One China" principle. Of these, 89 countries support efforts toward China-Taiwan unification without explicitly stating that such efforts must be peaceful, suggesting potential backing for military action. Many of these supporters, about 97 percent, are emerging and developing countries in the Global South where China wields significant influence.

In contrast, 40 countries, mainly Japan, the U.S., and European nations, support maintaining the status quo by expressing ambiguous positions aimed at deterring military conflict. Although these status-quo countries have greater economic and defense capabilities, they remain a numerical minority globally. The situation contrasts with the UN General Assembly’s strong response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, signaling that a similar international reaction to a Taiwan invasion could be less certain.

China’s diplomatic push for unification support is seen as a possible precursor to war intended to reduce international resistance to invasion. Meanwhile, the U.S. government has shifted its stance by asserting that Taiwan’s final political status remains unresolved, challenging China’s claim. This legal framing may prepare the U.S. for potential military intervention, contributing to the heightened tensions reflected in China's sharp reaction to Takaichi’s statements.

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