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Why Japan issued an advisory for a possible megaquake in the country's north
The Mainichi | English | News | Dec. 12, 2025 | Natural Disasters
Japan issued a megaquake advisory following a magnitude 7.5 earthquake off the eastern coast of Aomori, near the northern island of Hokkaido. Although damage from this quake was limited, including 34 mostly mild injuries and some infrastructure damage, officials warned of a possible larger quake of magnitude 8 or higher within the next week, with the probability estimated at about 1%. The advisory aims to encourage preparedness among residents, particularly along coastal areas, to respond quickly in case of a more severe earthquake.
The advisory covers 182 municipalities from Hokkaido to Chiba prefecture and focuses on the increased seismic risk around the Japan Trench and Chishima Trench, where the 2011 magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami originated. That 2011 disaster killed nearly 20,000 people and caused extensive destruction, including the meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Government estimates suggest a future megaquake in the Hokkaido-Sanriku area could generate a 30-meter tsunami, kill up to 199,000 people, destroy 220,000 buildings, and result in economic losses totaling 31 trillion yen ($198 billion).
The government contrasts this latest advisory with a previous one issued in August 2024 for the southern Nankai Trough region, where a magnitude 7.1 quake prompted widespread panic and disruption. That earlier advisory led to emergency product hoarding, event cancellations, and business closures. The Nankai Trough region faces even higher potential risks, with estimates projecting up to 323,000 deaths and over 2 million buildings destroyed from a possible magnitude 9.1 quake.
Officials emphasize that the advisory is not a prediction but a precaution. They urge calm, continuous daily activity, and preparedness, including keeping emergency bags ready with essentials, securing furniture, and reviewing evacuation plans. Municipalities have begun checking stocks of relief goods and communication equipment, and residents are being encouraged to register for emergency alerts.